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MLB

Thursday’s games

National League

Brewers @ Cubs

Davies is 3-1, 4.15 in his last five starts; five of his last seven stayed under. Brewers are 3-4 in his road starts.

Arrieta is 2-0, 0.66 in his last two starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Cubs are 2-5 in his last seven home starts.

Milwaukee is 8-23 in its last 31 road games; four of last six Brewer games went over total. Cubs won 14 of last 16 games; under is 7-4 in last 11 games at Wrigley Field.

Marlins @ Reds
Fernandez is 0-2, 4.76 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over. Miami is 9-4 in his home starts.

Straily is 5-0, 2.13 in his last six starts; his last three went over. Reds are 8-3 in his home starts.

Marlins are 5-10 in last 15 games; six of last eight Miami road games went over. Cincinnati is 17-11 in its last 28 games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.

Dodgers @ Phillies
Stripling is 1-2, 5.40 in his last three starts (under 7-2-1). Dodgers split his four road starts.

Eickhoff is 2-0, 4.32 in his last three starts; three of his last four home starts went over. Phillies are 7-5 in his home starts.

Dodgers won three of last four games; over is 6-1-2 in last seven Dodger games. Phillies won four of last six games; over is 7-1-1 in last nine Philly home games.

Nationals @ Braves
Lopez is 1-1, 5.74 in his three starts (over 2-1) this season.

Whalen is 1-1, 7.31 in his three starts (over 2-1) this season.

Nationals are 10-5 in last 15 games, but lost last two; five of their last seven games went over. Washington is 11-8 in road series openers. Atlanta lost six of last seven games, is 6-13 in home series openers. Five of their last six games went over.

Diamondbacks @ Padres
Bradley is 0-2, 11.48 in his last three starts; five of his last seven stayed under. Arizona is 5-4 in his road starts.

Clemens is 1-2, 5.49 in four starts for San Diego (over 2-2).

Arizona lost its last three road games; they’re 1-5 in last six road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. San Diego lost its last five games; five of their last six home games went over total. Padres are 11-8 in home series openers.

Mets @ Giants
deGrom is 1-0, 0.65 in his last four starts; five of his last seven stayed under. Mets won three of his last four road starts.

Bumgarner is 1-1, 0.60 in his last two starts; five of his last seven stayed under. Giants are 8-3 in his last 11 home starts.

New York lost 14 of last 21 games; under is 22-10 in their last 32 road games. Mets are 9-10 in road series openers. Giants are 9-21 since All-Star break, 0-4 in last four home series openers. Four of their last five games went over the total.


American League

Red Sox @ Tigers
Buchholz is 0-5, 8.00 in his last seven starts; three of his last four stayed under. Boston lost three of his four road starts.

Boyd is 3-0, 3.18 in his last three starts; four of his last six stayed under. Detroit won his last four home starts.

Red Sox won their last six games; they’re 8-2 in last ten road series openers. Under is 12-3 in last 15 Boston road games. Detroit lost seven of last nine games, is 10-4 in last 14 home series openers. Last five Tiger games stayed under the total.

Astros @ Orioles
Musgrove is 1-0, 1.93 in his first two MLB starts (under 1-0-1).

Gausman is 1-3, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 11-4 in his last 15. Baltimore won his last four home starts.

Astros lost their last four games, are 8-11 in road series openers. Six of last eight Houston games went over total. Baltimore lost five of last seven home games, is 11-8 in home series openers. Under is 11-0-2 in last 13 games at Camden Yards.

White Sox @ Indians
Rodon is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. White Sox are 2-7 in his road outings.

Salazar is 1-1, 8.25 in his last five starts; his last four went over. Indians are 6-3 in his home starts.

White Sox are 7-12 in last 18 games; over is 10-6 in their last 16 games. Cleveland won six of last eight home games; four of Indians’ last five games stayed under the total.

Twins @ Royals
Duffey is 3-0, 3.79 in his last three starts; over is 7-3-1 in his last 11. Twins are 4-5 in his road starts.

Gee is 0-4, 6.92 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under. Royals lost four of his five home starts.

Twins are 11-4 in last 15 road games, 7-4 in last 11 road series openers. Over is 15-3 in last 18 Minnesota games. Kansas City is 9-2 in its last 11 games, 14-5 in home series openers. Under is 14-4 in Royals’ last 18 games.

Mariners @ Angels
Iwakuma is 8-1, 2.78 in his last nine starts; five of his last seven stayed under. Seattle is 8-5 in his road starts.

Shoemaker is 1-4, 4.68 in his last five starts; under is 10-4 in his last 14 starts. Angels won three of his last four home starts.

Mariners are 12-3 in last 15 games; seven of last 11 Seattle road games went over. Angels lost 12 of last 13 games; seven of last ten Angel games stayed under total.


Teams’ record when this pitcher starts:

Mil-Chi– Davies 11-10; Arrieta 15-8
LA-Phil– Stripling 5-5; Eickhoff 11-13
Mia-Cin– Fernandez 14-8 (0-3 last 3); Straily 13-9
Wsh-Atl– Lopez 1-2; Whalen 2-1
Az-SD– Bradley 8-9; Clemens 2-2/1-1
NY-SF– deGrom 12-9; Bumgarner 14-11

Bos-Det– Buchholz 4-10; Boyd 6-5
Hst-Balt– Musgrove 1-1; Gausman 8-13
Chi-Clev– Rodon 7-12; Salazar 13-7
Min-KC– Duffey 10-10 (8-2 last 10); Gee 2-7
Sea-LA– Iwakuma 10-6 (5-1 last 6); Shoemaker 7-16


# of time pitcher allows 1+ runs in first inning:

Mil-Chi– Davies 5-21; Arrieta 3-23
LA-Phil– Stripling 3-10; Eickhoff 6-24
Mia-Cin– Fernandez 6-22; Straily 5-22
Wsh-Atl– Lopez 2-3; Whalen 2-3
Az-SD– Bradley 7-17; Clemens 0-6
NY-SF– deGrom 2-21; Bumgarner 6-25

Bos-Det– Buchholz 7-14; Boyd 1-11
Hst-Balt– Musgrove 0-2; Gausman 8-21
Chi-Clev– Rodon 6-19; Salazar 3-20
Min-KC– Duffey 6-20; Gee 6-9 (5 of last 5)
Sea-LA– Iwakuma 3-16; Shoemaker 5-23


Teams’ records in first five innings:

Team (road-home-total)- thru 8/17

Arizona 22-28-9……23-33-5……45-61
Atlanta 23-30-8……18-27-13…..41-57
Cubs 30-18-8……39-17-8…….69-35
Reds 17-37-7……25-29-4……42-66
Colo 23-27-11…..25-30-4……48-57
LA 25-23-9……36-20-7……61-43
Miami 26-24-9…..29-18-13……55-42
Milw 19-33-7……33-21-7…….52-54
Mets 24-39-7……27-24-9……51-53
Philly 20-27-15….22-27-10….42-52
Pitt 18-33-10…..36-18-4……54-50
St. Louis 28-26-5……24-25-12….52-51
SD 19-40-4……26-27-4…..45-67
SF 27-28-7……30-17-11……57-45
Wash 29-18-13…..25-18-16…..54-36

Orioles 23-32-7…….30-21-8…….53-53
Boston 20-26-8……39-17-8……59-43
White Sox 27-28-8……30-25-2……57-53
Cleveland 34-21-6……29-22-5……62-43
Detroit 25-29-8……29-23-3…….54-52
Astros 21-27-11…..29-24-7…….50-51
KC 24-32-8……23-23-11……47-55
Angels 22-33-7…….21-28-10……43-61
Twins 23-30-9……20-32-11…..43-62
NYY 18-32-8……27-28-9…….46-60
A’s 19-32-8……23-29-11…….42-61
Seattle 29-24-8……25-20-12……54-44
Tampa Bay 21-25-10……28-26-9……49-51
Texas 23-32-8…….28-21-9…….51-53
Toronto 35-19-4……..35-24-4……70-43
 
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StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*ARIZONA*at*SAN DIEGO
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest
176-117*since 1997.**(*60.1%*|*62.7 units*)
10-8*this year.**(*55.6%*|*2.4 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*ARIZONA*at*SAN DIEGO
ARIZONA is 45-24 (+25.9 Units) against the money line in Road games when playing against a team with a losing record*over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: ARIZONA (5.2) , OPPONENT (4.2)
 
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Thursday’s six-pack

— Get well soon to Arizona Cardinal coach Bruce Arians; he was hospitalized in San Diego this week with stomach pains.

— St Louis Cardinals pinch-hitters have 13 HRs this year; the big league record is 14.

— Cardinals are 10-7 in interleague play this year, 7-3 on road, 0-7 at home.

— Findlay Prep (Las Vegas) hoop coach Andy Johnson quits to become an assistant coach at Southern Utah. Interesting career move.

— Who would’ve thought that two of the best pitchers in baseball this year would be JA Happ and Danny Duffy?

— How would you like to own the LA Clippers, pay DeAndre Jordan $66M over the next three years, then hear him say an Olympic gold medal is bigger than an NBA title? Oy.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday

I’m playing three NFLX sides tonight, and that being the case, I’ll publish one of them right here as the daily Bonus Play. I don’t want to jinx myself, but the comps are running pretty well right now, so let’s see if another W can get added here.

407 BEARS at 408 PATRIOTS

Take: BEARS +3.5

There was basically nothing positive to come out of last week’s exhibition opener for the Bears. They were pretty much bad at everything. For a team looking to put 2015 in the rear view mirror, that was a discouraging start, to put it mildly. The games might not count but for teams like the Bears, I think it’s more important for them to build a little positive momentum and instead Game One got them just the opposite result. The first-team offense was almost unbelievably incompetent, gaining 13 yards on 10 plays. Simply stated, they have to show more here. I think the Bears should have an opportunity to do better in this game. They were at least what was described as “assertive” in the joint sessions this week.

There are a couple of possible negatives on the New England side, particularly at the QB spot. Garappolo did not have a good week of practice, and Brissett didn’t get many reps. The Patriots running game was also described as sluggish. There’s never any valuable info from Belichick, and he’s been typical Belichick at this camp. But it at least appears as though the Patriots are more focused from a gameplay standpoint on next week’s game at Carolina.

I’m not high on trends, but there are some pretty good pre-season angles that it the Bears this week, mostly having to do with teams that played very poorly at home the prior week, as was the case here. It could be that this Chicago team is so terrible that even in what really does look like a good pre-season spot, they can screw it up. But pre-season handicapping theory points their way, and the info gathered from those covering these two teams would seem to support that side as well. I’ll take the Bears and the points tonight.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, August 18, 2016 10:05 PM EST

(971) SEATTLE MARINERS VS (972) LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Take: Over the total

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, August 18, 2016 is in the baseball contest between the Seattle Mariners and the Angels in Anaheim. Anaheim is a good offensive park and the Over is 19-7 when the Mariners face a team with a losing record. Hisashi Iwakuma is on the hill allowing more hits than innings pitched. He's better at home, too, with a 4.17 road ERA as opponents hit .285 off him. The Over is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 road games. They face a struggling LA pitching staff with Matt Shoemaker (6-13, 4.22 ERA) going. He is off a loss at Cleveland allowing 12 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings. The Over is 15-5-1 when the Angels face the American League West and this shapes up as an offensive show. Play Seattle/LA Angels Over the total.
 

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