SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis -103 over CINCINNATI
The Cardinals have dropped six in a row including the first three games of this four-game series. The Cards bullpen is overworked, their offense is weak and their stock is low. While we’re generally not in favor of getting behind cold teams, we’ll make an exception here because Mike Leake is an extreme groundball pitcher at a hitter’s park while Scott Feldman is an extreme stiff at a hitter’s park. Thus, when Leake is evenly priced against Feldman, you can pencil us in.
Coming off a rough 2016 campaign, Leake has been terrific over the first 10 weeks of the season. His skills have remained extremely consistent throughout his career (he was pretty unlucky last year) and has been a little fortunate with both his home run per fly ball rate and strand rate so far in 2017. Leake doesn't offer a great deal of upside since his strikeout totals are pretty modest, but he does a great job of limiting both the walks and fly-balls. Leake’s 57% groundball rate is among the best in the game. Mike Leake is not going to dazzle but he’s well on his way to earning significant profits this year and on his worst day, he’s a better option in an evenly priced game than Feldman is. Leake’s 2.64/3.52 ERA/xERA is rock solid.
Scott Feldman spent the vast majority of the 2016 season working out of the bullpen, as he made just five starts on the year. He's back in a starting role in Cincinnati and with a couple other starters on the DL, his grasp on the role is pretty secure for now, which is great for us because we get to fade him for now. Feldman’s swing and miss rate in his last start was 3%. He throws 87 MPH, which works for guys that can locate well but Feldman is not among that group. He’s walked 25 batters and struck out 50 in 62 frames. A 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio is trouble waiting to happen. His swing and miss rate on the year is 6% and his 35% line-drive rate is more signs of trouble looming. We’ve never been terribly enamoured with the starting pitcher version of Scott Feldman and his xERA column (4.75 xERA) tells us not to expect much, ever. With pedestrian stuff, he’s always prone to get blown up, thus our interest level in him remains unchanged. Fade Feldman.
ATLANTA/Philadelphia Over 9½ -117
A couple of days ago we previewed Atlanta’s new stadium and in case you missed it, we’ll run that again here.
For the first 30 years that they were in Atlanta, the Braves played at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium. It was known as the “Launching Pad,” as balls regularly flew out of the round, ashtray-type stadium that was a hitter’s paradise. It had the highest elevation in baseball, at least until Coors Field opened in Colorado in 1993. That was the big thought of why the balls carried so well and made ordinary hitters power hitters. So far this year at SunTrust Park, there has been an average of 2½ home runs per game. That’s the highest in the major leagues. The players can even tell in batting practice when it’s a home run derby every day. Why is this new stadium different? Well, aside from that aforementioned elevation, home plate at SunTrust Park is pointed toward the southeast while Turner Field’s pointed north-northeast. Wind conditions are better. Right field in SunTrust Park is closer to home plate than it was in Turner Field — by five feet straight down the line and by 15 feet in the right-center field gap.
This park is playing like Coors Field so we’ll once again try to take advantage of a beatable number with two pitchers starting that virtually have no chance at success today.
It’ll be Ben Lively making his second major league start after throwing a gem (on paper) in his first. It’s always an emotional day for pitchers making their first major-league start and for Ben Lively it was no different. His parents flew in for the game along with friends and more family and he delivered with a seven-inning, four-hit, one-run beauty. Aside from this being a massive letdown spot, Lively did not strike out even one batter. His swing and miss rate was 4%. Lively walked three batters in his first start but was constantly behind in the count. His first-pitch strike rate was 54% and his second pitch strike rate was 46%. He has an average at best arsenal and the only reason he faired so well was due to extreme luck. A reality check is absolutely in order here.
If R.A. Dickey wasn’t so bad, we’d probably be betting the Braves in this one but Dickey is just as likely as Lively to not make it past three innings. In 65 frames, Dickey has walked 34 and struck out 32. His 1.62 WHIP is the worst mark in MLB among pitchers with 40 innings or more. His 82 MPH average fastball is the lowest velocity mark in the game. Your Uncle Wolfgang can throw 82. Dickey’s 6.70 xERA has not wavered once in his 11 starts and truly, the only reason he’s still pitching is because the Braves are paying him to eat up innings. Age is clearly taking a toll on the 42-year-old Dickey, who is suffering from a troubling xERA trend, issues with HR's, crumbling quality starts and well below-average skills. Even knuckleballers reach the end of the line and this one has reached his.
PITTSBURGH -1½ +156 over Miami
The Pirates are coming off a couple of sick losses in Baltimore that may be hard to rebound from. Up 6-2 going to the ninth last night, Trey Mancini hit a two-run shot with two out in the ninth to tie it after the O’s scored two runs earlier in the inning. Mancini then hit a three-run shot in the 11th. On Tuesday night, the Pirates had a 5-3 lead in the ninth and Tony Watson couldn’t hold that one either. That’s two blown saves in back-to-back nights for Watson so he’s the new mop-up man in Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh still scored 11 runs in the two games there and should have won both games. In a three-game set against the Mets prior to playing Baltimore, the Pirates scored 12 and 11 runs respectively in two of the three games.
Now the Pirates will send their best starter to the mound in Gerrit Cole. There has been many debates on whether or not Cole is an ace and we’re here to tell you that he is. How many pitchers in the last 50 years have gone at least 200 innings with 200 strikeouts in their age-24 season? Just 27. Some others on that list include the likes of Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Tom Seaver. Of that list of 27, Cole’s ERA of 2.60 was matched by only six. Gerrit Cole’s 2016 did not quite meet expectations, as he pitched 116 innings with 7.60 K’s per 9 and an ERA of 3.88. However, the season was marred by elbow injuries and while there was never any structural damage; it was still very sore. The side injury was the reason for his rough season because for pitchers, the core is very important. Cole put more pressure on his arm because he was having trouble with his core, which in turn probably threw off his delivery a bit, which would explain the control issues. The velocity was always there, as he maintained 95.2 mph on the heater, but the control was not. The message of this 2016 injury section is that these injuries weren’t a chronic issue. It was a side injury that led to an arm injury that made up one frustrating season.
Now on to 2017 with Cole entering spring training healthy and on time. The Pirates understandably took it easy on him, bringing him along a bit slower than his peers and he made it through spring healthy and ready for opening day in Boston. He was hitting upper 90s with his fastball and cruised through the first four innings, holding the Boston lineup scoreless. Things went south from there, as Cole got hit hard with two outs in the 5th, and he gave up five runs, leaving him with a 9.00 ERA after start #1. It’s the next five starts that told us Cole is back.
In those, Cole pitched 31 innings, striking out 32 (9.3 K/9), and walking six (1.7 BB/9), with a 2.61 ERA. Do those numbers sound familiar? Those are right in line with those 2015 numbers and he’s becoming a more complete pitcher this year. Cole has been focusing on his change, throwing it 12.5% of the time, compared to his previous career-high of 5%, and hitters are only hitting .111 off the pitch, with no extra-base hits. We’ve all known about Cole’s elite fastball, and with a serviceable change, he can now keep hitters off that heater. Cole is just entering his prime and has already produced an ace-like season before. His BB/K split this year is 16/61 in 72 frames. His velocity remains high (96-mph fastball), he's missing bats at a decent level (10% swing and miss rate) and he's throwing strikes early (68% first-pitch strikes) and often (33% ball%). Cole will now face a Marlins’ team coming off a three-game set at Wrigley so this is a letdown spot for the Fish, which brings us to our next angle.
Pitchers’ coming off no-hitters must be faded and that applies here. Average pitchers coming off a no-no are in big trouble next time out and that also applies here. The angle here is to bet against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter and that’s the real reason for this choice. Edinson Volquez threw a no-hitter against the Diamondbacks in his last start so this is the follow up. This is a pitcher whose skills have been wobbly for awhile. Last year they locked arms and stepped off the ledge. His weak command led the plunge and so fewer strikes yielded the second most earned runs in MLB. Volquez continues to have control issues with 33 walks issued in 62 innings. He’s thrown more disasters over the past three seasons then most. The emotional and physical toll a no-hitter takes is very likely going to be on full display here.
