STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
***** Thursday, 6/26/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #13
•Giants' Lincecum Tosses No-Hitter: Tim Lincecum pitched his second no-hitter against the San Diego Padres in less than a year, allowing only one runner Wednesday and leading the San Francisco Giants to a 4-0 win. Lincecum totally shut down the weakest-hitting team in the majors, striking out six and walking one. The right-hander retired the final 23 batters after walking Chase Headley in the second inning. Though the Padres hit a few balls hard, San Francisco fielders didn't need to make any exceptional plays to preserve Lincecum's gem. The 30-year-old Lincecum threw 113 pitches for this win, using a big-breaking curve to set up his fastball. Last July 13 at San Diego, he threw 148 pitches while holding the Padres hitless.
•An Improved Carroll Returns To White Sox Rotation: Even though right-hander Scott Carroll began the season in the rotation, he didn't view his recent role in the bullpen as a demotion. Instead, he used the time to work on his cutter and embraced the opportunity to help the team win. Now, Carroll will get another opportunity to regain his spot in the rotation when he starts Thursday against Toronto. He is replacing the struggling Andre Rienzo, who will now work as a reliever. "I looked at it as an opportunity to help the ball team win," Carroll said. "There's a lot of good arms in the bullpen. I looked at it as an opportunity to come in and eat up some innings. It was another feather in my cap to show I was devoted to do both ends. I think it helped me."
Carroll started five games to open the season and went 1-3 with 6.15 ERA. Manager Robin Ventura then decided Carroll could develop more consistency working as a reliever. The decision worked as Carroll was much more effective. He went 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA in six relief appearances and held lefties to a .158 average. He began to have much confidence with his cutter and that made the biggest difference. Despite relishing his time in the bullpen, Carroll is ready to be back in the rotation. He is looking for more success this time around. "I am ready for this opportunity again," Carroll said. "I'll look to get back into my comfort zone. I'm looking forward to it."
•Nats Call Up Hill From Syracuse's Rotation: After burning through six pitchers to cover 10 innings Tuesday night in Milwaukee, the Washington Nationals selected right-hander Taylor Hill from Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday. A sixth-round pick in the 2011 draft, Hill is 9-2 with a 1.92 ERA in 15 games for Syracuse this season and leads the International League in innings pitched. Hill was slated to start for Syracuse on Wednesday but will work out of the bullpen with the Nationals. He did just that against the Milwaukee Brewers, making his major league debut in the fifth inning Wednesday and working 3 1/3 innings while giving up two runs on five hits.
"I'm not going to go and blow guys away; it's not who I am," said Hill, who added he was watching a movie when his minor league manager called to tell him about his promotion at 2:00 AM. "I just want to be able to throw strikes, give my team a chance to win. It sounds weird, but my goal is to see the least amount of time ...on the mound. The (less) time I'm out there, the more time we are going to be on offense. It also translates to us not giving up runs, too, especially me." To make room for Hill on their 40-man and 25-man rosters, the Nationals designated veteran infielder Greg Dobbs for assignment.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
National League
•Marlins-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Koehler is 0-1, 5.40 in his last three starts.
--Hamels is 1-1, 0.90 in his last four starts.
--Marlins won 10 of their last 15 road games.
--Phillies lost four of their last five games.
--Six of last eight Miami games stayed under total.
•Mets-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Matsuzaka is 1-1, 1.46 in his last three starts.
--Worley is 1-0, 2.13 in his first two Pirate starts.
--Mets won five of their last seven games.
--Pirates won four of their last five games.
--Last four New York games went over the total.
•Nationals-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Fister is 5-1, 2.06 in his last six starts.
--Wood is 2-1, 2.79 in his last three starts.
--Washington won four of last five games, but lost five of last seven on road.
--Cubs lost four of their last five games.
--Under is 3-0-1 in last four Fister starts.
•Rockies-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Friedrich allowed nine runs in six IP in his first '14 start.
--Peralta is 4-0, 4.15 in his last four starts.
--Colorado lost eight of its last nine games.
--Brewers won seven of their last ten games.
--Four of last five Peralta starts went over the total.
•Cardinals-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Wainwright is 2-0, 1.17 in his last three starts.
--Beckett is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three starts.
--Cardinals won four of their last five games.
--Dodgers won nine of their last twelve games.
--Under is 13-4-2 in last nineteen St Louis games.
•Reds-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Leake is 2-0, 3.46 in his last couple starts.
--Vogelsong is 1-1, 7.31 in his last three starts.
--Cincinnati won nine of its last twelve road games.
--Giants lost eight of their last ten home games.
--Four of last five Vogelsong starts went over the total.
American League
•Twins-Angels - 3:35 PM
--Nolasco is 0-0, 4.96 in his last three starts.
--Weaver is 0-2, 4.19 in his last three starts.
--Minnesota lost their last seven road games.
--Angels won 14 of their last 16 home games.
--Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Angel home games.
•White Sox-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Carroll is 0-3, 9.47 in his last four starts, last of which was May 19.
--Happ is 2-3, 7.07 in his last five starts.
--White Sox lost nine of their last ten road games.
--Blue Jays won three of their last four home games.
--Four of five Carroll starts went over the total; under is 7-3 in Happ starts.
•Tigers-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Porcello is 1-0, 2.07 in his last couple starts.
--Martinez is 0-3, 7.62 in his last five starts.
--Detroit won five of its last six games.
--Rangers lost their last seven games.
--Seven of last eight Detroit road games went over total.
Interleague
•Braves-Astros - 2:10 PM
--Minor is 0-1, 5.48 in his last four starts.
--Cosart is 3-0, 2.57 in his last three starts.
--Atlanta won six of its last ten road games.
--Astros lost eight of their last nine games.
--Seven of last ten Cosart starts stayed under; last three Minor starts went over.
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Diamond Trends - Thursday
•LA ANGELS are 20-5 (+16.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 5.4, OPPONENT 3.4.
•DETROIT is 12-1 OVER (+11.0 Units) versus a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was DETROIT 5.3, OPPONENT 5.9.
•ST LOUIS is 13-31 (-26.6 Units) against the run line in road games versus a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 3.1, OPPONENT 4.1.
•TRAVIS WOOD is 7-1 (+7.3 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season.
The average score was WOOD 6.1, OPPONENT 3.0.
•COLE HAMELS is 17-3 UNDER (+13.7 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 2.6, OPPONENT 3.1.
•RICK PORCELLO is 13-2 (+11.3 Units) against the run line in road games versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORCELLO 5.8, OPPONENT 2.7.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) - National League, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL.
(54-21 since 1997.) (72.0%, +32.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -102.4
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +1.1)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2, +5.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7, +12.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12, +15.4 units).
•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (SAN FRANCISCO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) - National League, with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season.
(70-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +41.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (50-40 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -143
The average score in these games was: Team 4, Opponent 3.5 (Average run differential = +0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 46 (51.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (17-5, +9.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-15, +25 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (98-57, +12 units).
•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 10 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average American League hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts.
(84-42 since 1997.) (66.7%, +38.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 10.5, Money Line=-108.1
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 4.9 (Total runs scored = 10)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 69 (52.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0, +4 units).
