Thursday 5/11/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Carmine Bianco

Celta De Vigo at Manchester United
Play: Celta De Vigo +1

Leg 2 action here with United getting the important 1-0 away win in Spain and will look to avoid defeat at home. With today's Bonus Play we'll take the +1 here with Celta De Vigo as this Spanish side has been able to get some results away with wins at Krasnodar (Russia) Shakhtar (Ukraine) and Panathinaikos (Greece) and a draw at Genk (Belguim) their last 4 away knockout stages matches and although this may be the toughest of the 5 they should make a game of it today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocketman

Red Sox vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers +120

The Boston Red Sox travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers on Thursday afternoon. Boston is 17-16 SU overall this year while Milwaukee comes in with an 18-16 SU overall record on the season. Milwaukee is scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this year, 6 runs per game against left handed starters this season and 6 runs per game in inter-league play this year where they have a solid 4-0 record. Milwaukee is allowing only 3.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 3.5 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Milwaukee is 53-43 last 3 years against left handed starters. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -109

The Tampa Bay Rays are not a team that has the resources to go out and buy big time free agents. What they have done as well as any team is utilize the draft, and develop quality players. Kansas City is another small-market team that had a good run, but is now struggling again to open the season at a dreadful 12-21. The Royals were 100 game winners, including playoff games, in 2014 and 2015, but were below .500 last season, and sliding fast. Just two years ago ths offense was plating 4.57 runs per contest, but through 33 games this season the output is a woeful 2.94. They have scored one or fewer runs 12 times, or in 36.3% of all games, and two runs or less in about half of their games. Tampa Bay starter, Jake Odorizzi has seen his five starts yield 2.40 runs per game by the opponent, which sets up another disappointment for the Royals' lackluster offense.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati +108 over SAN FRANCISCO

These two played a three-game set last weekend in Cincinnati and the Reds outscored the Giants, 32-5 in the three-game sweep. Boy oh boy do the Giants ever have revenge on their minds. While the Reds will find out that scoring runs will be much harder to come by in this park than they were in Cincinnati, the same applies to the Giants and they scored five. The Giants have lost five of six and now have the worst winning percentage in the major leagues.

One of the pitching matchups last weekend was Bronson Arroyo against Ty Blach and we singled out Blach as a fade target. The Reds would score 10 runs in the first two innings on Blach before Bruce Bochy mercilessly yanked him. The market is giving Blach a pass because it was just one game in which anything can happen and Blach has a 1.26 ERA at home after two starts. We’re suggesting his chances of giving up something crooked again are far greater than his chances of throwing a good game. In 21 innings this year, this stiff has struck out five batters while walking seven. His K-rate is the lowest in the majors and it has the full support of his horrible 3% swing and miss rate. If Blach had a strong groundball rate, we could somewhat endorse giving up K’s for groundouts but that’s not the case either. His 37% groundball rate is well below league average. Blach’s xERA is 10.80 and if he and the Giants go on to win this game, good for them but there is no chance of us refusing a tag against the least skilled pitcher in MLB. It matters not that Arroyo is starting for the Reds.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Minnesota at Chicago
Pick: Chicago

The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox were postponed on Wednesday but will complete this now rain-shortened series on Thursday. The Twins won 7-2 on Tuesday and have now won four of the seven meetings between the teams this season. Overall, Minnesota has won eight of its last 12, as it goes for the two-game sweep tonight. The White Sox have been outscored 21-9 during their current four-game losing streak and despite winning three of the seven games played with the Twins in 2017, have scored only 15 total runs in those games (2.14 per).

Tonight's pitching matchup features Phil Hughes (4-1, 4.32 ERA) for Minnesota and Derek Holland (3-2, 2.02 ERA) for Chicago. Hughes pitched well enough to record his third straight victory on Friday but settled for a no-decision, despite allowing just one run on six hits in 6.2 innings against Boston. Hughes owns a 2.94 ERA in 16 career starts vs the White Sox, going 6-5 (teams are 9-7). Holland has been outstanding in 2017, having not allowed more than two ERs in any of his six starts. Holland picked up his second win in his last three starts last Thursday, after allowing two runs (one earned) on only three hits in 6.2 innings of an 8-3 romp at Kansas City. He's 2-4 with a 4.23 ERA in nine career starts against Minnesota.

The Twins check in at 16-14, while the White Sox's four-game slide has seen them slip under .500 at 15-16. Hughes got the better of Holland when the teams met back on April 7, allowing one run on five hits in six innings of a 3-1 victory. Holland also pitched six strong innings in that early April encounter (allowed two ERs on just four hits) and he's been the much better pitcher so far in 2017. Holland's ERA is less than half of Hughes', plus Holland owns a superb 1.04 WHIP with opponents batting only .191 against him. I'll back the home team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Harry Bondi

WASHINGTON -115 over Baltimore

Dylan Bundy has been lights out for Baltimore this year. Bundy, no relation to Ted, Al or King Kong Bundy, has had seven quality starts and sports a 5-1 record and 2.17 ERA. Baltimore has won six of his seven starts and the Orioles have the best record in baseball! So , why are they underdogs tonight to a Nationals team that has underachieved so far this season? Washington starter A.J. Cole has only made one start this season after coming off the disabled list. And he’s favored over Bundy? Finally, Baltimore has won 25 of its last 34 inter-league games and 20 of the last 28 meetings with Washington.Linesmaker has set a big trap here on the Orioles and we won’t fall for it because in life and gambling if something looks too good to be true it usually is! Take Washington.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vic Duke
MLB | May 11, 2017
Astros vs. Yankees
Astros +115 at BETONLINE

Astros/Yankees 7:05: Yankees six game run came to a screeching halt Tuesday; today, they should drop their second straight. NY faces Keuchel who controls a 3-1 mark with a 1.61 ERA in 4 starts at Yankee Stadium. And the Astros, which are on a sweet 19-7 run, control a 4-0 road mark with Keuchel on the hill. Houston is also 8-0 in Game 1 of a series. And we'll look for the solid bats of Houston, which have helped accumulate an 18-6 mark vs righties, to get the best of Pineda. Pineda did win both of his starts last year vs Houston; however, he gave up 7 runs in 12 innings in the process. I don't see that kind of run production tonight for NY. Astros the call.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Daily Line Drive: Thursday's Picks, Betting Odds and Analysis

Double-Play Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals (-105, 8.5)

The home team has won the first three games of the home-and-home Beltway Series but that trend should end today with a road victory in Game 4.

The Orioles will send their best starting pitcher, Dylan Bundy, to the mound Thursday and the Nationals will counter with A.J. Cole.

The O's have won Bundy's last five starts and he remains one of MLB's top breakout pitchers in 2017 with a 6-1 Team Win/Loss record, 2.17 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP.

A.J. Cole, on the other hand, is considered a top prospect for the Nats but is struggling to put it all together. In his only other start this season, against the Philadelphia Phillies, Cole escaped with a 6-2 win after allowing four walks over six innings and hard contact throughout. His AAA numbers this season haven't been good either where he owns a 6.63 ERA over four starts and a somewhat alarming 4.7 BB/9 innings.

The Orioles aren't the Phillies and they will make Cole pay for his mistakes.

Pick: Orioles -115

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-115, 8.5)

Two solid starting pitchers go toe-to-toe on the South Side of Chicago tonight when Phil Hughes and the Twins take on Derek Holland and the White Sox.

Hughes comes into Thursday night with a 3.44 ERA over his last three starts (Team W/L 3-0) and Under is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts against the White Sox, including three of his last four at U.S. Cellular Field.

Holland has been even better for the Sox with a 1.89 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP over his last three starts (Team W/L 3-0).

This game has under-the-radar pitcher's duel written all over it and Under is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between the two clubs.

Pick: Under 8.5

Yesterday's Picks 1-1
Season to date: 29-23-2


Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Michael Pineda, New York Yankees (3-1, 3.12 ERA, $394)

Even without gobs of pine tar on his neck, Michael Pineda seems to have put it together for the surprising Yankees. We all knew the Yanks were going to be fun to watch, but nobody expected them to pitch as well as they have to start the 2017 season.

The Yankees have won Pineda's last five starts and he owns a 2.32 ERA during that span. The key to his success has been reduced walks - his 2017 K:BB ratio is currently 43:5.

Pineda and the Yankees are -120 favorites at home against Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros.

Slumping: Ty Blach, San Francisco Giants (0-2, 5.66 ERA, $-330)

Is it Blach, or "blech!"? His name may be Ty Blach, but his performance as a starter this season has definitely been "blech!"

Blach has made three starts this season for the Giants and owns a Team Win/Loss record of 0-3 with an ERA as a starter of 6.00. His last start came against the Cincinnati Reds this past Saturday and he imploded for 10 runs allowed (8 earned) over three innings of work, with zero strikeouts and 11 hits allowed. Missing bats doesn't seem to be something he is capable of doing.

Blach starts at home tonight against the same Reds team that beat him up last week and the Giants are -120 favorites.

Thursday's Top Trends

* Under is 12-1 in Jason Vargas' last 13 starts overall. Total 7.5 @ Rays.
* Over is 12-2 in the Milwaukee Brewers' last 14 home games. Total 8.5 vs. Red Sox.
* Over is 10-1 in the Houston Astros' last 11 vs. American League East. Total 7.5 @ Yankees.
* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 14-3 in Gerrit Cole’s last 17 starts vs. National League West. +115 today @ Diamondbacks.
* The Detroit Tigers are 8-2 in Michael Fulmer’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. +105 today @ Angels.
* Over is 13-3-1 in Bronson Arroyo’s last 17 starts overall. Total 8 @ Giants.

Weather to Keep an Eye On

Based on the current forecast, it looks like a great day for baseball in most of the country. The only red flag for rain is in Washington. The Baltimore Orioles are in town to play the Nationals and there is a 45 percent chance of rain for first pitch, increasing to over 60 percent as the evening progresses. The Nationals are -115 chalk to win with the total set at 8.5.

As for the wind, there will be a 13-15 mile per hour hitter's wind blowing out to center at At&T Park for the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants. The total is currently at 8.

Ump of the Day

Will Little: Little is behind the plate in Arlington tonight and that is fantastic news for Rangers fans. So far this season he has been printing money for home teams. When Little is wearing the pads in 2017, home teams are 4-0 and have already paid out $411. Additionally, the home team has won 10 of 12 in interleague games dating back to last season when Little has been calling balls and strikes. The Padres are in town tonight to play the Rangers in this interleague matchup and Texas is currently -135 home chalk.