Thursday 5/11/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Steve Janus
MLB | May 11, 2017
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Mariners +112 at GTBETS

10* Mariners/Blue Jays Free Pick

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings. This system is 47-26 (64%) against the money line since 1997. BET THE MARINERS!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock
MLB | May 11, 2017
Astros vs. Yankees
Yankees -122 at BETONLINE

Pure Lock's FREE MLB play Thursday 5-11-17

NY Yankees -122

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mikey Sports
MLB | May 11, 2017
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Mariners +131 at 5DIMES

Mikey Sports FREE MLB play Thursday 5-11-17

Seattle +131

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

R&R Totals
MLB | May 11, 2017
Astros vs. Yankees
Total 7½ +102 at 5DIMES

R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Thursday 5-11-17

OVER 7 1/2 Houston/NY Yankees

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dennis Macklin
MLB | May 11, 2017
Reds vs. Giants
Reds +110 at 5DIMES

DMack Bonus Play for Friday, May 11, 2017 is on the Cincinnati Reds action

Betting the loser is a five day pitching rematch is pretty standard fare in the industry but that does not quite fit here. Both starters are train wrecks but Bronson Arroyo did make his best start of the year six days ago in a 13-3 Reds win. The next day, Ty Blach got nine outs while allowing 11 hits and 10 runs in a 14-2 loss to the Reds. Cincinnati has been one of the surprises of the league this year and the Reds are .500 by beating up (9-5) on losing records like San Fran.

DMack is on a 9-1 all sports run and looking for more today with plays in the NBA and the MLB

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Williams
MLB | May 11, 2017
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Rockies -109 at 5DIMES

1* on Rockies -109

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Info Plays
MLB | May 11, 2017
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Rockies -115 at BETONLINE

1* Bonus Play on Rockies -115

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Black Widow
MLB | May 11, 2017
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Dodgers +107 at BMAKER

Widow's Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +107

Bets on road teams (Los Angeles) hitting between .255 and .269 on the season against a poor starting pitcher with an ERA north of 5.70 in the NL, with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last five games are 122-61 (66.7%, +56.2 units) since 1997. I'm not sure why Tyler Anderson and his 6.69 ERA is favored here over the Dodgers. Give me Los Angeles.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Conn
MLB | May 11, 2017
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Total 9 -125 at 5DIMES

1* Bonus Play on Mariners/Blue Jays under 9 -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Andre Ramirez
MLB | May 11, 2017
Reds vs. Giants
Reds +106 at BETONLINE

MLB 60 DIME FREE GAME

Arroyo will be taking the mound for the Reds. Arroyo just held the Giants to two earned runs in his latest start, and the Giants offense is showing no signs of coming alive, so I am confident Arroyo can limit the damage. Also, Blach just surrendered eight runs to the Reds in his previous start, and the Reds feature terrific numbers against left-handed pitching, so I am very confident the Reds can plate multiple runs of Blach and notch the road win. Arroyo is 4-0 against the Giants! Lay the money on the Reds

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

San Antonio At Houston
When: 8:00 PM ET, Thursday, May 11, 2017
Where: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas


All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard vows to be in the starting lineup for Game 6 on Thursday, when the San Antonio Spurs attempt to close out their Western Conference second-round series against the host Houston Rockets. Leonard departed Tuesday's Game 5 due to a left ankle injury but quickly answered, "Yeah, I'm going to be able to play," when quizzed during Wednesday's off-day media availability.

All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard vows to be in the starting lineup for Game 6 on Thursday, when the San Antonio Spurs attempt to close out their Western Conference second-round series against the host Houston Rockets. Leonard departed Tuesday's Game 5 due to a left ankle injury but quickly answered, "Yeah, I'm going to be able to play," when quizzed during Wednesday's off-day media availability.

The second-seeded Spurs took a 3-2 series lead by pulling out a 110-107 overtime win in Houston with Leonard (22 points, 15 rebounds) seated on the bench, and they know finishing off the Rockets will be an arduous task. "It's going to be tough. They're a great offensive team," Leonard told reporters. "They're a bunch of competitive guys. They play great at home. It's going to be tough. It's going to be about taking care of the ball, playing confident and trying to minimize our mistakes." Houston guard James Harden recorded 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 5 but had his last-second 3-point attempt blocked by San Antonio guard Manu Ginobili. "We couldn't get in a rhythm at the end of the game or in the overtime," Harden told reporters. "We had an opportunity to win this game and take a lead back home, and we let it slip away. But we will be ready on Thursday."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE ROCKETS: Harden is averaging 27.4 points and 10.2 assists for third-seeded Houston but was just 4-of-15 from 3-point range in Game 5 and is shooting just 32.1 percent from beyond the arc in the series. "I'm all right. Just missed shots," Harden told reporters while asserting fatigue isn't an issue. "Missed shots and just didn't make enough plays to win. Obviously, other players stepped up and made big shots, and that was the game." With veteran center Nene (groin) done for the postseason, the Rockets only used seven players, with 3-point bomber Ryan Anderson seeing action in the interior to help compensate for the loss.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Ginobili had his best game of the series with 12 points, seven rebounds and five assists in addition to the game-saving rejection of Harden. "I don't feel like I had a huge game," Ginobili told reporters. "I felt better than the previous ones, for sure, but I guess the standards are a little lower." Patty Mills figures to draw the start at point guard for the second straight game after scoring 20 points and knocking down five 3-pointers in Game 5.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Spurs are 3-1 at Houston in 2016-17, going 2-0 in the regular season while splitting the two games in this series thus far.

2. San Antonio PF LaMarcus Aldridge recorded 18 points and 14 rebounds in Game 5 for his first double-double of the series.

3. Rockets SG Patrick Beverley made five 3-pointers and scored 20 points in Game 5 after averaging 9.3 over the first four contests.

PREDICTION: Rockets 114, Spurs 111

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - San Antonio at Houston

TRENDS
San Antonio
Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win.
Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Houston
Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southwest.
Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 55-27-3 ATS in their last 85 Thursday games.
Rockets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Rockets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.
Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
OU TRENDS
San Antonio
Over is 8-0 in Spurs last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 overall.
Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 vs. NBA Southwest.
Over is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 road games.
Over is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 Conference Semifinals games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE COKIN

REDS AT GIANTS
PLAY: OVER 8

I’m going to keep playing against Bronson Arroyo in some fashion until something changes with him. He’s getting by in that he’s not getting crushed, but he certainly isn’t pitching well. The Reds have gone Over in all but one of his starts.

As for the Giants, they send Ty Blach out here, and he’s a soft tossing lefty who is strictly pitch to contact. Blach is getting almost no K’s and his swing and miss rate is extremely low.

The Giants are clearly not very good offensively. But they finally had a big inning that held up to get them past the Mets on Wednesday (following a very costly Flores error) and that could give them a little boost here. The Cincinnati pen has been very good, but the same cannot be said for the Giants. SF is now also without their closer Melancon.

The Giants have been going Over lately, with just two of their last nine games staying Under. I don’t expect either starter to flourish here so will take the Reds and Giants to go Over the number.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

Houston vs. New York
Play: Houston +112

The Astros fit a solid and rare system here tonight that plays on road dogs that are off a home favored win at -200 or higher and scored 4 or less wins vs an opponent off a road loss by 2 or more runs like the yankees were in their last game. Since 2004 these dogs have won the only 5 times this situation has occurred. Houston has won 18 of 24 vs right handers and averages over 6 runs per game on the road. New York has been solid so far this year but this could be a tough game for them tonight. Houston has Keuchel pitching and he has a 1.41 career Era against them and he is 6-1 with a 1.88 Era on the year. Keuchel is 9-2 in road starts in the month of May. Pineda for the Yankees has allowed 11 runs in 9 innings at home vs Houston. Look for the Astros to take the opener.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Rockets -7.5
Red Sox -131
Twins +125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

San Antonio vs. Houston
Pick: Over

The set-up: The Spurs took a 3-2 lead in this series by winning Game 5 in OT (110-107), with All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard on the bench due to a left ankle injury. Manu Ginibili "turned back the clock" with his best game of the series, which included a line of 12-7-5 and then capped his performance with a block of Harden's possible game-tying three-point attempt at the OT buzzer. Harden had 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 5 but it wasn't enough..He was just 4-of-15 from three-point range plus Gordon, inserted into the starting lineup for Game 5, shot 4 of 13 from the floor (11 points) and reserve guard Lou Williams score only six points on 3 of 10 shooting.

San Antonio: Leonard vows he'll be in the starting lineup tonight saying, "Yeah, I'm going to be able to play," when asked during Wednesday's off-day media availability. Patty Mills also figures to draw the start at PG for the second straight game, after scoring 20 points and knocking down five 3-pointers in Game 5. Then there is PF LaMarcus Aldridge, who scored 18 points and added 14 rebounds on Tuesday, recording his first double-double of the series.

Houston: Head coach Mike D'Antoni not only "went small" by starting Gordon, he also opted for just a seven-man rotation, with veteran center Nene (groin) done for the postseason. Ryan Anderson and Lou Williams being the only reserves to play in Game 5. Anderson had a strong game with 19 points but as noted already, Williams shot poorly. In Houston's three losses this series, Williams has gone 5 of 21 (23.8%) from the floor, scoring a total of just 10 points!

The pick: The results of D'Antoni's decision to go with a seven-man rotation were NOT good. Harden and Gordon each played 43 minutes, Beverley was out there for 41 minutes and Ariza for 40 minutes. As fatigue mounted, offensive execution waned. Down the stretch, the Rockets began standing around and settled for tough shots instead of challenging the Spurs' scrambling defense. "Probably got tired," D'Antoni said of the lack of pace and production. "We just couldn't quite push it. We had our opportunities with about three minutes to go in the game to knock a couple 3s down I thought were good shots. We just didn't make the big play at that moment." You think! The Spurs have Popovich and a long history of playoff games of this magnitude to draw on. However, slowing the Rockets down in Houston, especially if Leonard is not 100 percent, will be tough. The Rockets have averaged 116.5 PPG at home this year (regular and postseason) and if the team goes down, it will go down 'swinging.' With Houston also allowing 107.5 PPG at home, the Over is a solid play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Strike Point Sports

San Francisco (-120) over Cincinnati

The Reds blew out the Giants last week in grand fashion. They won 13-3 on Friday and 14-2 on Saturday and then completed the sweep on Sunday with a 4-0 shutout. The Giants are off to a terrible start to this season. But I think that this team is going to want some revenge in this one. This is a very proud team full of veteran ball players that have been together for a long time. The Giants are going to get to face Bronson Arroyo for a second time in a week. He was on the mound on Friday in the 13-3 win, and I think the Giants are going to get to him early and often in this one. Arroyo has a 6.53 ERA on the season and has just one quality start this year. Arroyo has an 11.25 ERA on the road and he is going to get hit hard in this one. Go with the home team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jason Sharpe

Washington (-110) over Baltimore

Baltimore is expected to go with Dylan Bundy here in this one. Though Bundy has got the job done so far this season for the O's, there are some red flags out there from the young right-hander. His strikeouts are way down by an average of 3 K's per every 9 innings, and he comes in with 4 straight games of 3 strikeouts or less. Washington is expected to go with Jacob Turner in this one. Turner is a former first-round pick and top prospect that has not been able to become the dominant starter many expected at the MLB level. I like Turner and think he's made some nice improvements the last few years, and he looks even better here with the Nats. Take Washington in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robert Ferringo

Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Play: Under 7.5

The Royals have a horrendous offense, averaging 2.9 runs per game. They are last in the league in scoring, batting and OPS and as a result they've gone 10-20 against the total to start the season. A very solid pitching staff compliments their horrific offense, and Jason Vargas has been as good as any starter in the Majors this year. Vargas has a 1.19 ERA, and going back to 2015 he has gone 'under' in nine of 10 starts, allowing just eight earned runs over his last 52 innings of work. Tampa Bay doesn't mind playing a low-scoring grinder game. They are No. 21 in scoring and No. 22 in batting, while also posting a Top 10 pitching staff. Jake Odorizzi has just a 2.88 ERA on the year, and he has been rock solid, allowing two runs or fewer in four straight outings. He has gone 'under' in eight of his last nine starts, and I see him holding the Royals down. This number might be at 7.0 but regardless, I see another low-scoring game in the series finale and expect this one to be in the 3-2 range.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Houston (+110) over New York Yankees

The Astros have the superior pitcher on the mound Thursday night. The Astros have hit .300 as a team lifetime against Pineda with a slugging percentage of .600, and opponents have hit .318 against Pineda in night games this season leaving him with an ERA of 5.06. Keuchel has pitched lights-out this season with an ERA of 1.88 and a WHIP of just 0.85. Opponents have hit just .179 against Keuchel this season, and the Yankees have hit just .179 as a team against Keuchel lifetime. Play the Houston Astros ML with confidence.