Thursday 4/16/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Playoff Cheat Sheet - East
By Alex Smith

New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

2014-15 Head to Head Record: Rangers lead 3-1, 2-2 O/U
Played in Last Season's Conference Semi-Final (NYR won in 7)
Underdog is 7-4 Last 11 Meetings
Rangers: 6-1 SU Last 7 Meetings

New York Rangers
(Record: 53-22-7, 113 Pts; Won President's Trophy & Metro Division Title)
O/U Record: (16-18 at 5.5/ 22-14-11 at 5)
Power Play: (16.8%; Ranked #21)
Penalty Kill: (84.3%; Ranked #6)
Number of OT/SO Games: 17

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014 (Beat Philadelphia in 7, Beat Pittsburgh in 7, Beat Montreal in 6, Lost to Los Angeles in 5)
13-12 SU, 8-10-7 O/U & 12-13 ATS in 2014 (Eastern Conf. Champs)
29-33 SU, 18-28-16 O/U & 26-36 ATS Last 4 Postseasons
2-4 in 1st Home Game of Series since 2013

Current Form: On a 7-1 SU run; 9-1-2 O/U Last 12
Scored 2 or more goals in 12 of the last 13 games

Pittsburgh Penguins (Record: 43-27-12, 98 Pts)
O/U Record: (22-27 at 5.5/ 9-14-9 at 5)
Power Play: (19.3%; Ranked #10)
Penalty Kill: (84.6%; Ranked #3)
Number of OT/SO Games: 22

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014
(Beat Columbus in 6, Lost to NY Rangers in 7)
15-13 SU, 15-12-1 O/U & 11-17 ATS Last 5 Series

Current Form: On a 4-7 SU, 2-6-2 O/U, & 0-10 ATS run


Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings

2014-15 Head to Head Record: Lightning lead 3-1, 2-2 O/U
Favorite has won 3 of 4 meetings, cashing on puck-line in all 3 wins
Under is 6-4 Last 10 Meetings

Tampa Bay Lightning (Record:50-24-8, 108 Pts)
O/U Record: (6-2 at 6/ 29-32 at 5.5/ 9-1-3 at 5)
Power Play: (18.8%; Ranked #14)
Penalty Kill: (83.7%; Ranked #9)
Number of OT/SO Games: 15

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014 (Lost to Montreal in 4)
(0-4 SU, 2-2 O/U & 3-1 ATS in that series)

Current Form: On a 4-4 SU Run
5-0-2 O/U Last 7 with a Total of 5
0-6 Last 6 with a Total of 5.5

Detroit Red Wings (Record: 43-25-14, 100 Pts)
O/U Record: (15-22 at 5.5/ 20-11-13 at 5/Over in one 4.5)
Power Play: (23.8%; Ranked #2)
Penalty Kill: (80.9%; Ranked #17)
Number of OT/SO Games: 25

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014 (Lost to Boston in 5)
(1-4 SU, 1-2-2 O/U & 2-3 ATS in that Series)
16-19 SU, 11-13-11 O/U & 20-14 ATS Last 4 Postseasons

Current Form: On a 3-5 SU & 2-3-3 O/U run Last 8 Games.


Game 7 Notes

Home teams have won 12 of the last 22 Game 7's

2015 Playoff Teams with Most Game 7's Since 2011
Rangers (6; 5-1)
Canadiens (4; 1-3)
Red Wings (3; 1-2)
Blackhawks (3; 1-2)
Penguins (2; 1-1)
Ducks (2; 0-2)

Overtime Notes

2014
26 OT Games
14 in Round 1
5 in Round 2
4 in Conference Finals
3 in Stanley Cup Final

2013
27 OT Games
17 in Round 1
5 in Round 2
2 in Conference Finals
2 in Stanley Cup Final

2012
25 OT Games
16 in Round 1
5 in Round 2
2 in Conference Finals
2 in Stanley Cup Final

2011
22 OT Games
14 in Round 1
6 in Round 2
1 in Conference Finals
1 in Stanley Cup Final

2015 Playoff Teams Overtime Records Since 2011

Eastern Conference
Rangers (5-12)
Penguins (3-6)
Canadiens (3-6)
Senators (4-0)
Lightning (1-2)
Red Wings (3-5)
Islanders (0-2)
Capitals (6-5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Playoff Cheat Sheet - West
By Alex Smith

Anaheim Ducks vs. Winnipeg Jets

2014-15 Head to Head Record: Ducks lead 3-0, Over 2-1
JetsLost 2 meetings as a Home Favorite
Ducks 5-2 All-Time vs Jets since 2011

Anaheim Ducks
(Record: 51-24-7, 109 Pts; Won Pacific Division Title & #1 Seed)
O/U Record: (1 Over at 6/ 22-35 at 5.5/ 12-8-4 at 5)
Power Play: (15.7%; Ranked #28)
Penalty Kill: (81%; Ranked #15)
Number of OT/SO Games: 23

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014
(Beat Dallas in 6, Lost to Los Angeles in 7)
10-10 SU, 8-7-5 O/U & 7-11 ATS Last 3 series

Current Form: On a 9-4 SU & 5-6-2 O/U run
Scored 2 or More Goals in 12 of their Last 13 Games
Only 1 Power-Play Goal in their last 23 Chances (4.3%)

Winnipeg Jets
(Record: 43-26-13, 99 Pts)
O/U Record: (24-16 at 5.5/ 18-18-6 at 5)
Power Play: (17.8%; Ranked #17)
Penalty Kill: (81.8%; Ranked #12)
Number of OT/SO Games: 24

Last Playoff Appearance: None as the Winnipeg Jets
Made Postseason as Atlanta Thrashers in 2007

Current Form: Won 4 of their Last 5, 6-2 SU Last 8 at Home


St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild

2014-15 Head to Head Record: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 O/U
Home Teams & Favorites split
Blues 7-3 SU Last 10 Meetings

St. Louis Blues
(Record: 51-24-7, 109 Pts; Won Central Division Title)
O/U Record: (17-14 at 5.5/ 18-16-16 at 5 /1 Over at 4.5)
Power Play: (22.3%; Ranked #3)
Penalty Kill: (83.7%; Ranked #8)
Number of OT/SO Games: 21

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014 (Lost to Chicago in 6)
8-13 SU, 9-11-1 O/U & 6-15 ATS Last 3 years

Current Form: On a 6-4 SU & 3-5-2 O/U Run
G Jake Allen 4-1 SU Last 5 Starts
PK Unit: 19 Kills / 20 Chances Last 7 Games

Minnesota Wild
(Record: 46-28-8, 100 Pts)
O/U Record: (9-17 at 5.5/ 21-21-14 at 5)
Power Play: (15.8%; Ranked #27)
Penalty Kill: (86.3%; Ranked: #1)
Number of OT/SO Games: 16

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014
(Beat Colorado in 7, Lost to Chicago in 6)
7-11 SU, 9-7-2 O/U & 9-9 ATS Last 3 series

Current Form: On a 2-4 SU & 2-2-2 O/U run
Won 12 of their last 13 Road Games


Game 7 Notes

Home teams have won 12 of the last 22 Game 7's

2015 Playoff Teams with Most Game 7's Since 2011
Rangers (6; 5-1)
Canadiens (4; 1-3)
Red Wings (3; 1-2)
Blackhawks (3; 1-2)
Penguins (2; 1-1)
Ducks (2; 0-2)

Overtime Notes

2014
26 OT Games
14 in Round 1
5 in Round 2
4 in Conference Finals
3 in Stanley Cup Final

2013
27 OT Games
17 in Round 1
5 in Round 2
2 in Conference Finals
2 in Stanley Cup Final

2012
25 OT Games
16 in Round 1
5 in Round 2
2 in Conference Finals
2 in Stanley Cup Final

2011
22 OT Games
14 in Round 1
6 in Round 2
1 in Conference Finals
1 in Stanley Cup Final

2015 Playoff Teams Overtime Records Since 2011

Western Conference
Blackhawks (12-8)
Predators (2-2)
Blues (3-4)
Wild (3-4)
Canucks (4-5)
Flames (NA)
Ducks (2-5)
Jets (NA)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting 101: How to safely bet the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs
By JASON LOGAN

The NHL playoffs, more so than any other sport’s postseason, are about as different from the regular season as you can get.

Teams that dominated during the regular schedule suddenly find themselves on the brink of elimination, and clubs that squeaked into the playoff picture can catch fire and ride a hot goalie all the way to the Stanley Cup.

In order to help hockey bettors navigate the upside-down world of postseason puck, we asked some Experts’ top handicappers to share their best tips, tactics, and trends when it comes to successfully wagering on the NHL’s second season.

Hot goaltenders

Like pitching in baseball, goaltending can singlehandedly win a playoff series. Year after year, hockey bettors witness incredible performances between the pipes and make a small mint riding these red-hot keepers.

On the other side of the coin, not having a proven No. 1 goalie can quickly put a wrap on the season – no matter how many goals a team can score. Jesse Schule points to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have been ushered out of the playoffs the past three years thanks to shaky play in the crease.

“When I'm looking to narrow down the field to legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, I always look at the goaltenders first,” agrees Sean Murphy. “Which ones are capable of carrying a team on their shoulders if need be? Who can steal a game, or even a series?”

The Ottawa Senators are hoping rookie sensation Andrew Hammond can step up to the challenge after a breakout campaign. Hammond finished with a 20-1-2 record and a 1.79 GAA, and finished April with a 5-0-1 record and 1.60 GAA heading into the playoffs.

Depth and toughness

Ever watch a hockey player get interviewed about his team’s deep postseason run? More often than not, the guy’s face looks like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti on the floor and then tried to sew it back together.

The NHL playoffs are a grueling challenge of teams’ overall talent and toughness. When a series goes six or seven games, the true depth of a roster is drawn to the surface.

Injuries can spoil an NHL bet faster than a Zdeno Chara slapshot and knowing which teams are healthy, getting healthy, and beat up entering the playoffs is a good way to gauge just where you should put your money.

“Some teams that were banged up earlier this season are healthy now and could perform better than expected, while the opposite could be true of teams suffering through multiple injuries at the moment,” says Doc’s Sports.

Teams that can get production from their third and fourth lines are the ones who survive, while clubs that rely on a few key players to carry the team often find themselves trading hockey sticks for golf clubs. Opponents draw up schemes to shadow and lock down these stars and force role players to beat them.

“It's important to consider depth,” says Murphy. “Which teams can roll four lines and get steady production from their role players? Unlike other sports, the NHL playoffs aren't all about the superstars. It's the grinders that often decide which team is left standing in June.”

Physicality also plays a major role in the outcome of the playoffs, with every hit looked at as an investment. Finesse teams can get worn down over the course of a series while teams that like to lay the lumber excel in the furious pace of the postseason.

“Some teams might not be the fastest and most skilled, but instead they out-work, out-hit, and physically dominate their opponents,” says Schule.

Road Warriors

Another big difference between the NHL playoffs and other sports’ tournaments is the importance - or lack thereof - when it comes to home ice.

In basketball and football, having the crowd on your side is crucial to a championship run. However, in hockey, bettors get great value with road teams in the postseason. Hot home teams like Tampa Bay or Nashville may be good fade bait while tough road clubs, like the New York Rangers, can hold added pop on the road.

“Other than getting the final line change, there is really not much of an edge for the home team,” says Steve Merril. “Obviously, the crowd will be supporting them. But unlike the NBA, it does not influence officials as much, as penalties are normally called evenly and on an alternating makeup basis. NHL playoffs is the one sport where I feel home teams are generally overvalued, especially since travel is not a factor and both teams in a best-of-seven series have the same travel schedule.”

Ben Burns believes each NHL postseason game is unique and doesn't carry as much momentum from one contest to the next. Teams quickly make adjustments, line changes and roster moves based on the game before and can have a completely different feel when they face off next. A high-scoring Game 1 can produce a low-scoring Game 2 with teams tightening up on defense.

Special teams

Referees do tend to let a lot more slide in the postseason compared to regular season action, so it makes it even more important for teams to capitalize on those man-advantages when the whistle does blow.

“It is absolutely imperative to score on the power play, in order to discourage opponents from taking cheap shots at your best players,” says Schule.

Entering the postseason, the Washington Capitals boast the top power-play attack in the league with 60 goals with the man advantage and a 25.3 power-play percentage. At the bottom of the scale, the Anaheim Ducks boast the lowest power-play percentage in the playoffs at 15.7 percent.

As for killing off those penalties, the Minnesota Wild didn’t get burned much with a man in the box ranking second in the NHL with an 86.3 penalty-kill percentage. The Vancouver Canucks and Penguins followed them, killing off 85.7 and 84.8 percent of their penalties, respectively. The New York Islanders have the worst PK among playoff teams at 77.9 percent.

Editor's note: This article was originally published in April 2014. Stats and info have been updated to reflect this NHL season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Anaheim favored to sweep round one in NHL Playoffs
Stephen Campbell

As the hockey world gears up for what's sure to be another exciting postseason on the ice, A sportsbook has the Anaheim Ducks as the most likely team to sweep their first round series.

The Ducks, who have drawn the Winnipeg Jets in round one, have the lowest odds to win their series 4-0 out of each of the 16 playoff-bound teams.

Here's a run down of Anaheim's chances to win the series in each possible game:

Ducks win in four games: +600
Ducks win in five games: +300
Ducks win in six games: +350
Ducks win in seven games: +300

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Series Prices on the move with Playoffs Approaching
Andrew Avery

NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs series prices have been on the move over the past 24 hours with several swings.

The biggest movers are the Pittsburgh Penguins, who were +205 yesterday, but presently sit +185 to defeat the New York Rangers at an online shop. The Rangers went from -245 to a current price of -220.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds on the Stanley Cup winner coming from Canada
Stephen Campbell

Canada is very well-represented in this year’s edition of the NHL Playoffs, as five teams from the Great White North will be participating in the postseason.

Do you think either Winnipeg, Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary or Vancouver will be crowned Stanley Cup champion in June? Sports Interaction is offering a prop on just that, with the YES priced at +375 and the NO -613.

Four of the aforementioned clubs will be facing each other in the first round (Montreal vs. Ottawa, Calgary vs. Vancouver).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Crashing Penguins face poor matchup in Rangers
Justin Hartling

The Pittsburgh Penguins are limping into the playoffs, with just one win in their past six games, and may be facing off against the last team they've wanted to see in the New York Rangers.

The Pens have dropped six of the last seven against the Broadway Blueshirts, while being outscored 26-11. The slumping Pittsburgh offense has only averaged 1.7 goals per game over their past 15 games.

The Penguins are currently +155 when they travel to Madison Square Garden Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Odds and Picks: Scouting the Week Ahead, Part II
by Alan Matthews

I looked at the four Stanley Cup quarterfinal games starting Wednesday in my Monday preview, and while those are some quality matchups, I really like the Thursday four-game slate of openers better because I think all four series underdogs have a very reasonable shot at winning the series -- compared to only thinking one does among Wednesday's games (Islanders). A sportsbook did add two interesting props since I wrote Monday. It's a Canadian site, so it often has Canada-specific props. It asks whether a Canadian team will win the Cup. "No" is a heavy -600 favorite and "yes" at +400. And will two Canadian teams reach the Finals? No is -5000 and yes +1200. I can't recommend either as I only think Montreal has a shot of getting there and/or winning it.


Penguins vs. Rangers

Game 1 is at 7 p.m. on the NBC Sports Network. All the Rangers have to do is not lose another home game the rest of the way and the Presidents' Trophy winners will win the Cup for the first time since 1994. Despite losing star goalie Henrik Lundqvist for a large chunk of the second half of the season, the Rangers set team records with 53 wins and with 113 points. In no surprise, the Blueshirts are going to ride Lundqvist in the postseason despite how good Cam Talbot was when King Henrik was hurt. Pittsburgh nearly flopped in a big way but snuck into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season by beating the hapless Buffalo Sabres 2-0. Pittsburgh went 4-9-2 in its last 15 games but is in the postseason for the ninth straight year. Unfortunately, goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been very shaky over his postseason career since winning the Cup in 2009. These two met in the conference semifinals last year, and the Rangers rallied from a 3-1 series deficit. Both teams will be missing key defenseman. Pittsburgh's Kris Letang, one of the best in the NHL, isn't expected back at all in these playoffs with a concussion. New York's Kevin Klein Klein hasn't played since March 11 and is doubtful for Game 1 with an arm problem. He had nine goals and 26 points in 65 contests. New York won the season series 3-1. Two went at least to overtime. A sportsbook favored series results at +350 are Rangers in five and Rangers in seven. Seven games is the favorite at +180.


Red Wings vs. Lightning

Game 1 is at 7:30 pm. on CNBC. It's the 24th straight season the Red Wings are in the playoffs, by far the longest current streak in the four major American team sports. The overriding story line here is that the general manager of the Lightning and the guy who turned this into the most exciting young roster in the NHL is one of the greatest Red Wings ever in Steve Yzerman. The Bolts finished with 108 points, just two behind Montreal for the Atlantic title. Detroit was third with 100. I'm fascinated to watch Lightning sniper Steven Stamkos, he of the 43 goals (second in NHL), go against two of the NHL's best defensive forwards on Pavel Datsyuk (one of best in history) and Henrik Zetterberg. The Lightning led the NHL in goals per game. In a moderate surprise, at least to me, the Wings will not start veteran Jimmy Howard in net for Game 1 but young Petr Mrazek. He was much better than Howard down the stretch but hasn't played in the postseason. Tampa defenseman Braydon Coburn could play in Game 1. He hasn't since March 10 due to a lower-body injury. The Lightning won the season series 3-1. The favored series result is Tampa in five games at +350, but the series ending in six or seven games are +180 favorites.


Wild vs. Blues

Game 1 is at 9:30 p.m. on the NBC Sports Network. St. Louis won the incredibly deep Central Division, and its reward is the best team in the Western Conference since Jan. 15 and the hottest goaltender in the West in Minnesota's Devin Dubnyk. The Wild were 28-9-3 since that date, which was when Dubnyk made his debut with the team after coming over from Arizona. The Blues had first-round home-ice advantage last year against Chicago and lost four straight after taking the first two in St. Louis. The Wild upset Central Division champion Colorado in the first round last season before losing to the Blackhawks. St. Louis hasn't announced its Game 1 goalie yet. Youngster Jake Allen was 22-7-4 with a 2.28 GAA and .913 save percentage this season, and he played in four of the team's final six regular-season games. However, Brian Elliott played the season finale against the Wild, a 4-2 win. He is 7-2-0 with a 2.32 goals-against average and .895 save percentage with two shutouts against Minnesota in his career. He was 6-0-0 against the Wild before back-to-back losses against them, 3-1 on March 14 and 6-3 on March 21. Allen has never started a playoff game so that could be the edge that gives Game 1 to Elliott. Minnesota and St. Louis split four regular-season meetings. The favored series result at +350 is Blues in seven. At +175, seven games is also the favorite on exact games.


Jets vs. Ducks

The last Game 1 is at 10:30 p.m. ET on CNBC. The Ducks led the West with 109 points (tied with Blues but Anaheim is the top seed) while the Jets were only fifth in the Central with 99 points, but I have no question in my mind that Winnipeg could steal this. Know this: the Ducks have lost a Game 7 at Honda Center to a lower-seeded team in each of the past two postseasons. I thought Winnipeg might miss the playoffs when arguably its best player, defenseman Dustin Byfuglien, was suspended for four of the final five games of the season. I see a potential upset because the Jets seem better in goal. Ondrej Pavelec is 9-2-1 in his last 12 decisions, although he has never played in an NHL playoff game. It looks to be Frederik Andersen for Anaheim, but he lost the No. 1 job during last season's playoffs, so he might be a bit gun-shy. Andersen has started 10 times since the trade deadline and John Gibson has started eight. The Ducks won all three regular-season matchups but they haven't played since January. Another reason the Ducks worry me: They ranked 28th on the power play. The favored series results at +400 are Ducks in five and seven games. Seven games is the +175 favorite on exact games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Thursday's games

Rangers lost Stanley Cup final LY; they won last three first round series- they won six of last seven games with Pittsburgh, with only loss in a shootout. Penguins lost last three visits here; four of last six series games stayed under total. Pittsburgh is 3-2 in first round series since winning Stanley Cup in 2009. Rangers won six of last seven games overall, with four of last five going over total; Penguins lost five of last six games overall, with only win vs lowly Buffalo; six of their last eight stayed under.

Tampa Bay is 1-3 in first round series since winning Stanley Cup in 2004; Lightning won seven of last nine games with Detroit- six of those nine stayed under the total. Red Wings are 3-2 in first round series since winning Cup in '08; they lost last four visits to Tampa, are 3-5 in last eight games overall. Tampa Bay won its last three games, allowing five goals; they won four of last five at home. Under is 3-1-1 in Lightning's last five games.

St Louis won seven of last ten games with Minnesota; Wild lost three of last four visits to St Louis. Since 2003, Blues are 1-4 in first round series, with only series win in '12. St Louis won five of its last six games overall, with three of last four staying under- they won three of last four home games. In its franchise history, Minnesota is 2-3 in first round series, winning second series LY; Wild won four of its last five road games, but lost four of last six games overall.

Anaheim is 2-3 in first round series since winning Stanley Cup in 2007; Ducks won last four games with Winnipeg, but Jets won three of last five visits here. Three of last four series games went over the total. Winnipeg is in playoffs for only second time since joining NHL in 2000 (in Atlanta); they lost in first round in '07. Winnipeg last had a playoff team in '96 (current Coyotes). Jets won four of last five games, with three of last four staying under total. Anaheim won five of its last seven games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head

Tournament: RBC Heritage
Date: Apr. 16 - Apr. 19
Venue: Harbour Town GL
Location: Hilton Head, SC

After a mind-blowing performance by Jordan Spieth last week at the Masters, the PGA sets its sights on South Carolina where they are going for the RBC Heritage. It has been played one or two weeks after the first major of the year since 1974 and was first established on the tour back in 1969.

The par-71, 7,101-yard course has been host to some tremendous champions in the past as Davis Love III has the most wins (5) here and Boo Weekley (2007, 2008) is the last golfer to win both twice and back-to-back in the tourney. Last year, the heroics of Matt Kuchar stole the show, as he followed a horrible three-putt from close range on the 17th-hole with a hole out from the sand on 18 to secure the win behind a score of 11-under par.

The field will be led by world No. 2 and Masters champion Jordan Spieth but will have just one other player (Jim Furyk) from the top-10 and another six golfers from the top-25. The RBC Heritage is one of just a few tournaments that is invite only, and hence has fewer players (132) teeing off, so let’s look through those guys and find some who can slow down the wrecking ball that is Spieth.

Golfers to Bet:

Jim Furyk (23/1): Furyk has not had the great season that many expect out of him so far and has seen his standing decrease in the past three weeks, leading to a missed cut in Augusta. He will have those extra days to prepare for Harbour Town GL, a spot where he has won before (2010) and has since had three top-21 finishes with an eighth (2012) and seventh (2014) mixed in. Despite his less than stellar performances this year, the 16-time PGA winner has hit 72.3% of fairways (5th on tour) and ranks second in proximity to hole (33’0”). It is more his short game which has been lacking, but that has never been his strength and shouldn’t hurt his overall chances going into this event.

Brandt Snedeker (35/1): Snedeker is a former champion here when he took the win in 2011 behind a score of 12-under, defeating Luke Donald on the third playoff hole. Since then he has struggled slightly, making all three cuts, but hasn’t done better than 59th in the last two years. He’s had a bounce-back year in 2015, eclipsing his earnings over 25 events last year through his first 12 outings this season in which he has seven top-25s and a win. He has not excelled in any one area on the year, but ranks in the top-50 in strokes gained putting (0.467, 28th on tour), sand save percentage (57.3%, 38th on tour) and scrambling (64.9%, 15th on tour). His solid short game allows him to be a threat every week and he should always be someone to watch.

Luke Donald (30/1): The trophy at this event has eluded Donald in the past and despite dominating with three runner-ups and two third place finishes in the last six seasons, he has been unable to actually get the win. Last year he held the lead going into the final round and despite shooting a solid 69, could not stay with winner Matt Kuchar. He is a combined 50-under par on this course in the last six years and has hit double-digits under par in all but two of his visits. He hasn’t had the greatest season coming in, making just 5-of-9 cuts with one top-25, but should be able to come around at a course where he obviously feels very comfortable.

Ben Martin (80/1): Martin’s early win this year has him in the top-15 of the FedEx Cup standings and he proved at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his last event that wasn’t the Masters, that the victory wasn’t a fluke with a top-five finish behind a score of 14-under par. It was his fourth top-25 on the year and he has been able to have a career-best start to the year as he hits 70.8% of GIR (9th on tour) and is accurate off the tee (66.2%, 38th on tour). Martin also knows how to navigate this venue and put it together last year with three rounds of 69 or better, finishing just two shots off the lead with a third-place as he hit better than 64% of GIR and fairways. Martin knows what it takes to win on the tour and is worth a look in this one.

Alex Cejka (200/1): Cejka is another winner from this season that doesn’t quite get the respect that he should due to the tournament being the Puerto Rico Open. Still, he has since made the cut in each of the two events since and is coming off an 11th at the Shell Houston Open. He is a very hit-or-miss type of player and has made the cut in just 8-of-14 outings, but has been in the top-25 in five of the eight made cuts. His best showing here came in 2009 when he tied for 13th, but he has not played at the course in the last two years and withdrew in 2012. Cejka could heat up and strike gold this week, but also has a chance at falling deep into the pack and miss the cut, so only go with him if you are looking to take a chance.


RBC Heritage Betting Odds

Jordan Spieth 6/1
Zach Johnson 18/1
Jim Furyk 23/1
Patrick Reed 23/1
Ian Poulter 25/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Bill Haas 30/1
Louis Oosthuizen 30/1
Luke Donald 30/1
Billy Horschel 35/1
Brandt Snedeker 35/1
Charley Hoffman 35/1
Russell Henley 35/1
Webb Simpson 35/1
Charl Schwartzel 45/1
Graeme McDowell 45/1
Jason Kokrak 50/1
Kevin Streelman 50/1
Chris Kirk 60/1
Charles Howell III 65/1
Daniel Summerhays 65/1
Russell Knox 65/1
Jason Dufner 70/1
Brendon Todd 75/1
Daniel Berger 75/1
Ben Martin 80/1
Brendon de Jonge 80/1
Graham Delaet 80/1
Pat Perez 80/1
Sean O'Hair 80/1
Cameron Tringale 85/1
Ernie Els 85/1
Matt Every 90/1
John Huh 95/1
Justin Thomas 95/1
Martin Laird 95/1
Camilo Villegas 100/1
Rory Sabbatini 100/1
Morgan Hoffmann 110/1
Sang Moon Bae 110/1
Boo Weekley 120/1
Chesson Hadley 120/1
Jonas Blixt 120/1
Aaron Baddeley 130/1
Branden Grace 140/1
Johnson Wagner 140/1
K.J. Choi 140/1
Seung-Yul Noh 140/1
Vijay Singh 140/1
William McGirt 140/1
Brian Harman 150/1
Freddie Jacobson 150/1
George McNeill 150/1
Joost Luiten 150/1
Kevin Stadler 150/1
Marcel Siem 150/1
Carl Pettersson 160/1
Hudson Swafford 160/1
Brian Davis 170/1
James Hahn 170/1
Jason Bohn 170/1
Jerry Kelly 170/1
Tony Finau 170/1
Zac Blair 180/1
Brian Stuard 190/1
Chad Campbell 190/1
Chris Stroud 190/1
Robert Streb 190/1
Scott Brown 190/1
Alex Cejka 200/1
Danny Lee 200/1
Luke Guthrie 200/1
Michael Putnam 200/1
Jeff Overton 210/1
Robert Garrigus 210/1
Billy Hurley III 230/1
Thongchai Jaidee 230/1
Ryo Ishikawa 240/1
Scott Langley 240/1
Adam Hadwin 250/1
Anirban Lahiri 250/1
Cameron Smith 250/1
David Hearn 250/1
Jonathan Byrd 250/1
Lucas Glover 250/1
Mark Wilson 250/1
Martin Flores 250/1
Michael Thompson 250/1
Sam Saunders 250/1
Spencer Levin 250/1
Stewart Cink 250/1
Ben Crane 300/1
Bo Van Pelt 300/1
David Toms 300/1
Jhonattan Vegas 300/1
Kevin Kisner 300/1
Nicholas Thompson 300/1
Nick Taylor 300/1
Richard Sterne 300/1
Ricky Barnes 300/1
Troy Merritt 300/1
Brice Garnett 350/1
Bryce Molder 350/1
D.A. Points 350/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 350/1
John Merrick 350/1
Ken Duke 350/1
Andres Romero 400/1
Andrew Svoboda 400/1
Charlie Beljan 400/1
Justin Leonard 450/1
Andres Gonzales 500/1
Blake Adams 500/1
Chez Reavie 500/1
Corey Conners 500/1
Derek Ernst 500/1
Derek Fathauer 500/1
Dudley Hart 500/1
Glen Day 500/1
Gunn Yang 500/1
Jeff Maggert 500/1
Jim Renner 500/1
John Faidley 500/1
Kenny Perry 500/1
Mike Weir 500/1
Robert Allenby 500/1
Scott Verplank 500/1
Scott Vincent 500/1
Steven Bowditch 500/1
Tim Wilkinson 500/1
Tom Watson 500/1
Woody Austin 500/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bet on how many majors Jordan Spieth will win in 2015
Stephen Campbell

Fresh off capturing the green jacket at the Masters in dominating fashion, it's safe to say life is pretty good for 21-year-old PGA Tour sensation Jordan Spieth right now.

Now that Augusta is in the rear-view mirror, A Sportsbook is offering a prop on how many major championships the Texan will win in 2015.

One major win: -275
Two major wins: +225
Three major wins: +2,000
Four major wins: +20,000

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Rays (5-4) at Blue Jays (5-4)

Game: 4
Venue: Rogers Centre
Date: April 16, 2015 7:07 PM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have been held almost completely in check in this series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Chris Archer figures to add to their woes.

The Rays have won nine of Archer's last 10 road starts as they try to capture this four-game series Thursday night in this matchup of 5-4 clubs.

Bautista drilled a two-run homer in Wednesday's 12-7 victory that ended Tampa Bay's four-game win streak for his only hit in seven at_bats in this series to go with four walks. Encarnacion has fared worse, going hitless in 12 at_bats.

Archer (1-1, 2.13 ERA) has enjoyed facing them in the past. Bautista is 2 for 21 with no homers against him; the only AL pitchers Bautista has faced more and has yet to homer against are Baltimore teammates Tommy Hunter and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Encarnacion is 4 for 21 off Archer, though three have gone for homers.

Archer will no doubt be more concerned with Jose Reyes, who is 9 for 20 versus him and 12 for 36 this year.

The Rays right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts in Toronto. He improved to 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA in his last 10 road starts by pitching seven innings of one-hit ball in Saturday's 2-0 victory over Miami.

"Everything felt great," Archer said. "When you're locating your fastball, it makes your secondary stuff twice as good."

Archer has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 consecutive road outings to match the club record set by Jeremy Hellickson from April 19, 2012, to April 15, 2013.

He'll get his first look at Blue Jays rookie Devon Travis, who is 5 for 11 in this series after he had three hits with a homer in his first multihit effort Wednesday.

'It's just a really fun lineup and it's great to be a part of it," Travis said.

Josh Donaldson has gone 5 for 9 with three RBIs in his last two games with three hits Wednesday in his first game in the No. 2 batting slot.

Steven Souza Jr. is 6 for 13 in this series for Tampa Bay, including homers in consecutive games for the first time in his career.

'It seems like those just misses are becoming just connections now,' manager Kevin Cash said of Souza. 'It's good to see.'

Cash would no doubt like to see more from Evan Longoria, who is 6 for 28 this year and 1 for 7 in this series with three walks.

Toronto's Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 8.10) makes his second career start after surrendering three runs in 3 1-3 innings Saturday in his first one, a 7-1 defeat at Baltimore.

The 22-year-old right-hander earned a rotation spot because of Marcus Stroman's season-ending knee injury in spring training. Sanchez yielded one hit over 5 2-3 scoreless innings of relief against Tampa Bay last year as a rookie, with Longoria going 0 for 3 against him.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blue Jays' new turf could hold value for MLB totals betting
By JASON LOGAN

The Toronto Blue Jays may have rolled out the green carpet for Under bettors during their current 11-game home stand.

The Blue Jays installed brand new AstroTurf inside the Rogers Centre this offseason and players are already commenting on how soft the new turf is and its effect on ground balls.

“It looks slower to all kinds of eyes,” Toronto slugger Jose Bautista told the Toronto Star. “It’s weird, but we’re going to have to adjust. It’s definitely a lot slower than it was in the past and a lot slower than any other artificial turf I’ve ever laid my feet on.”

Toronto has played two games at home this season, going Under in a pair of losses – 2-1 and 3-2 – to the Tampa Bay Rays this week. In contrast, the Jays went 4-1-1 Over/Under in the first six games of the season – all on the road – with an average of almost 11 runs per game scored in those contests. Wednesday's total for Game 3 versus the Rays is set at 8.5 runs.

The old turf in the Rogers Centre, which was there for five seasons, played much faster and made it harder for infielders to handle ground balls. It also allowed balls to bounce deep into the outfield. This new turf hasn’t been broken in yet nor has it been rolled and stored for other events coming to the ballpark. According to stadium officials, the new turf will pack down and play faster over time but for now players will have to adjust to the groundball-eating artificial surface.

“The first day I was out on the turf last year my hips were sore and I felt, kind of like shin splints. This year I didn’t feel it at all. So I think that’s a good thing,” outfielder Dalton Pompey told reporters. “But in terms of on the field, for a hitter, it’s a little tougher. I guess you gotta give something up to get something.”

The slow turf may have a bigger impact on opponents than it will the Jays, who currently have a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 0.93 this season (15th) and have ranked among the Top 13 flyball teams in the majors in each of the past six seasons, including a 0.86 G/F ratio at home in 2014. However, sizing up opponents on their way to Toronto could provide some added value for the Under and the home team.

Tampa Bay has two games remaining in the Rogers Centre as of Wednesday. The Rays currently have a G/F ratio of 0.81 but ranked as the 13th best groundball team in the majors last season (0.81). Tampa Bay uses Erasmo Ramirez (career 0.73 G/F) and Chris Archer (career 0.91 G/F) in those remaining contests. Toronto hands to ball to Mark Buehrle (0.80 G/F with Toronto) and Aaron Sanchez (1.83 G/F in 36.1 MLB innings) for those two games.

The Atlanta Braves cross the border for a three-game interleague set in Toronto starting Friday. The Braves are currently the fourth-best groundball team in the bigs (1.13 G/F) and finished eighth in groundballs with a 0.92 G/F ratio last season. Atlanta is expected to go with Julio Teheran (career 0.61 G/F), Alex Wood (career 0.95 G/F), and Shelby Miller (career 0.73 G/F) wile the Jays counter with Drew Hutchison (career 0.64 G/F), knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (0.75 G/F with Toronto), and Daniel Norris (0.44 G/F in 17 1-3 innings).

The Baltimore Orioles round out this 11-game home stand for Toronto. The Orioles currently have a G/F ratio of 0.91, with a 0.83 G/F ratio in 2014 – sixth lowest – but had more power bats in the lineup last season. The Blue Jays went 2-1 and 2-0-1 O/U in three road games against the Orioles last week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Home Cookin'

The opening matchup of a four game series is today’s baseball betting focus as the Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies this evening at Nationals Park. Right-hander Doug Fister will toe the rubber for Matt Williams' squad looking for win number one after blanking Phillies over 6 1/3 innings in his season debut but tagged with a no-decision as the relief staff allowed Phillies a come from behind victory. Fister will once again be matching pitches with left-hander Cole Hamels who tossed a strong 7 innings of 2 hit, 1 run ball in the win. This being a rematch on home field should get the attention of sports handicappers keeping close tabs on the Nationals. Washington has won 4 of 5 on home field swinging at Cole Hamels' offering and have won 12 of 18 as home favorites in this series. The fact that Hamels is a portsider is also good news for Washington, since Nationals have won 8-of-10 at home facing a left-handed starter. The most compelling numbers in the Nationals’ favor are the figures compiled by Fister. The team is 9-2 as home chalk since his arrival last year, including a perfect 4-0 opening a series and a near perfect 6-1 when the team is off a victory the previous effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

-- Miami Heat played four starters 48 minutes last night; I've never seen that before in an NBA game. Fifth starter played 41 minutes; one sub played 7:00. Weird.

-- In their first nine games, Phillies are 0-8-1 in first five innings.

-- Orioles scored in first inning in seven of their first nine games.

-- Houston is 4-0 when Keuchel/McHugh start, 0-5 otherwise.

-- Pelicans made NBA playoffs, supposedly saving Monty Williams' job, which is kind of sad, one game of 82 determining his fate.

-- How happy is Derek Fisher that this nightmare of a season is over?

 

[iromero89]

10-4 yesterday and having a big big year...

@WiseguyNetwork

10 Penguins/Rangers o5

14 Wild/Blues o5

901 Brewers +140

902 Brewers/Cardinals u8

906 Marlins/Mets u7

910 Minnesota Twins +116

910 Kansas City/Mennesota u8.5

912 Blue Jays +103

WTA Tatjana Maria -115