Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Thursday
959 REDS (Iglesias) at 960 CUBS (Hammel) 8:05 PM
Take: REDS +155
Let’s call it straight right out of the box. Going against the Cubs isn’t easy. Even with the Kyle Schwarber injury, this is a loaded team that is rightfully on the short list of entries with a real shot to win it all in 2016.
The Reds are not part of that conversation. Cincinnati contending would be an enormous surprise, to put it mildly. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t spots where this team will be a play on possibility, and I have tonight as one of those nights.
Raisel Iglesias makes the start for Cincy here, and he’s a guy with a ton of upside. Iglesias features three really good pitches, and I don’t think it’s at all inconceivable that we’re looking at a future staff ace here. Iglesias really got serious this winter and arrived at camp in much improved shape, and his efforts thus far are highly encouraging. Iglesias still needs to work on his efficiency so he can go deeper in games, but I pretty much like everything I’m seeing from the 26 year old righty.
Jason Hammel goes for the Cubs tonight, and he’s a tough guy to fade, particularly early in the season. Hammel has shown a tendency to wear down in the second half, but I expect the veteran to be an asset for the Cubs, especially up till the All-Star break based on his track record. Hammel threw it well enough in his first 2016 start and he doesn’t figure to be easy prey for Cincinnati hitters tonight.
If this game were even money, I obviously would not be considering this play. But the idea of getting Iglesias at what I see as an inflated number is very appealing. I should point out that if I can get to the seventh inning with a short lead, I’ll consider hedging if the price is right. I certainly would not mind getting a position where I can guarantee myself a profit, and let’s face it, that Cincinnati pen is not exactly shutdown city. But for now, I’m happy enough to grab a generous +155 and will take the Reds and Iglesias.