StatSystems Sports NBA & NCAAB Report, Thursday 3/3/11
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 3/3/11
NBA & NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
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••• MISSOURI STATE TOP SEED MVC TOURNAMENT •••
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Missouri State executed a quick two-year turnaround to win its first Missouri Valley Conference title, rising to the top seed in this season's league tournament. Forward Kyle Weems, the league's player of the year, confidently said if his team matches the defensive intensity of its clinching, five-point victory over Wichita State in the regular-season finale, it could beat anybody in the country. The Bears (23-7, 15-3 MVC) had better keep grinding, though, in their drive for a first NCAA tourney bid since 1999. The top seed has received an NCAA berth the last 17 years, but for the fourth straight year the Missouri Valley is unlikely to get more than one team into the tournament.
The conference is ranked 12th in the RPI, stuck in an extended down cycle, yet hanging its hat on being dangerous in March. Northern Iowa made the lone bid count last year with an upset over top overall seed Kansas and an appearance in the final 16. The league totaled three final 16 teams in 2006 and '07, too. Missouri State has the league's best RPI at 42 with second-place Wichita State (23-7, 14-4) at 52, well ahead of the other eight schools. The best chance to sneak two teams in is for both schools to play well in St. Louis, with the tourney opening with a pair of lead-in games on Thursday and the nationally televised final on Sunday.
Missouri State is the top seed for the first time in its 21 seasons in the league and is the last of the current membership to get the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament. The Bears open Friday against either No. 8 Southern Illinois or No. 9 Illinois State. As usual, the league is a week ahead of most of the country with its conference tournament, and this weekend will top one million fans since the event moved to the neutral site in St. Louis in 1991. Hopeful schools must sweat out next week and hope there are no major upsets in other league tournaments, worsening their chances for an at-large bid.
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*** #501 ORLANDO @ #502 MIAMI (-5, O/U 198) ***
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The Miami Heat and Orlando Magic are in the midst of difficult stretches which may define their seasons, and neither team has played particularly well against tougher competition. One team will shed that label for at least a day when the in-state rivals meet Thursday night in Miami. The Heat (43-17) began a six-game stretch against likely playoff teams Sunday with a 91-86 loss to New York. They're second in the Eastern Conference, but have matchups looming with San Antonio, Chicago, Portland and the Los Angeles Lakers. The loss to the Knicks dropped Miami to 13-14 against teams .500 or better, a stark contrast to a 29-2 mark against squads below the break-even mark.
With 22 games remaining and the Heat battling the Bulls and the Celtics for the top three seeds in the East, improvement against top-tier competition is necessary. "We've got to figure it out," said Dwyane Wade, who was limited to 12 points against New York on 5-for-15 shooting. "That's why we continue to play these games. We continue to build habits. Hopefully, eventually we'll turn the corner." Miami hopes the acquisition of point guard Mike Bibby will provide an added boost. Bibby, who reached a buyout agreement Monday with Washington, is expected to be in uniform Thursday after the Heat cleared a roster spot by releasing Carlos Arroyo on Tuesday.
LeBron James, who said he had private discussions with Bibby about playing with the Heat, scored a season-high 51 points against Orlando in the most recent meeting, a 104-100 victory Feb. 3. Coincidently, that marked the last time Miami beat a team with a winning record. Meanwhile the Magic (39-22), fourth in the East and 4 1/2 games behind the Heat, have lost two of the three matchups this season but have seemed to hit their stride. Orlando has won three straight and five of six after beating visiting New York 116-110 on Tuesday.
After a stretch from Jan. 12-Feb. 11 without beating a team with a winning record, the Magic have won three straight such games and are making their case for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Orlando will face Miami, followed by Chicago on Friday and Portland on Monday. "We'll be forced to play every night or suffer the consequences if we don't play well," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "And I think that's a good mindset and focus to have, that you have to play very well to get a win. You're not going to get anything given to you in this stretch." The Magic are 2-4 combined against their next three opponents.
"This is kind of a chance to redeem ourselves," guard Jason Richardson said. "We haven't played against some of the top teams well, but I think we have a chance this week to show people we're serious about trying to win a championship here." Dwight Howard had 30 points and 16 rebounds, and Jameer Nelson scored 23 of his 26 points in the second half Tuesday. Nelson scored a team-high 22 points in the most recent meeting with the Heat, while Howard has averaged 20.0 points and 13.7 rebounds in three matchups this season.
The Magic are expected to have both Jameer Nelson and Gilbert Arenas in the lineup after they took part in Wednesday's practice. Nelson says his ankle is still bothering him a bit after rolling it during Tuesday’s win over the Knicks. He was forced to leave that game for a while but doesn’t expect the injury to hamper him much against the Heat. Meanwhile, Arenas’ calf muscles have been acting up lately as a result of his multiple surgeries and he was a late scratch for Tuesday’s game. The veteran is putting up 11.6 points and 4.5 assists per game.
Orlando heads into the all-Florida affair having won five of its last six games straight up, covering in four of those contests. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four against the Eastern Conference. The under is 9-2 in the Magic’s last eleven overall and 5-1 in their last six against the Eastern Conference. Head-to-head, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last four meetings. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 encounters.
--ORLANDO is 24-6 UNDER (+17.4 Units) after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 98.3, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 24-8 UNDER (+15.2 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.1, OPPONENT 91.3 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 3.5; O/U 195.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -4.24
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(58-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.1%, +36.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -197.3
The average score in these games was: Team 103.9, Opponent 94.1 (Average point differential = +9.8)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (50-9, +32.7 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (138-46, +50 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (ORLANDO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (<=33%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 42+ games.
(52-10 since 1996.) (83.9%, +34.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -178
The average score in these games was: Team 97.6, Opponent 90.8 (Average point differential = +6.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0, +10 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1, +11.8 units).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - an good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games.
(48-18 since 1996.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.6
The average score in these games was: Team 100.7, Opponent 100.5 (Total points scored = 201.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 33 (50.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-11).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites (MIAMI) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(49-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (58-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 103.9, Opponent 94.1 (Average point differential = +9.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 32 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-16).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (107-73).
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NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** #503 DENVER @ #504 UTAH (-3.5, O/U 210) ***
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The Denver Nuggets are pretty happy since trading their top star. There's not much for the Utah Jazz to be pleased about since making a similar deal. Coming off their most lopsided win of the season, the Nuggets look to continue their surge as the spiraling Jazz attempt to avoid their longest home losing streak in almost 29 years Thursday night. Denver (36-26) has won four of five since making a three-team, 13-player deal that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York on Feb. 22, leaving the Nuggets without their marquee player and leading scorer at 25.2 points per game.
They're averaging 107.0 points since the move, and may have made their biggest statement that they're doing just fine without the four-time All-Star on Wednesday by pounding Charlotte 120-80. Denver, second in the Northwest Division, 1 1/2 games behind Oklahoma City, is crediting an improved attitude and teamwork, which was on display Wednesday when the team collected a season-high 34 assists. Seven players scored in double-digits as Wilson Chandler had a team-high 16 points. "We're playing together and we're winning right now," said guard Ty Lawson, who had 14 points and 10 assists. "That's fun for everybody. There's no sticky hands out there. We're passing the ball, getting everybody involved.
It feels a lot better when everybody is happy. The bigs are happy. The wings are happy. Everybody is touching the ball, and that's the way basketball should be played." Utah isn't enjoying the same success since trading All-Star guard Deron Williams to New Jersey one day after the Nuggets moved Anthony. The Jazz have dropped three of four while allowing an average of 107.3 points. That's part of a 5-16 stretch that includes a season-high six consecutive losses at EnergySolutions Arena, their longest at home since a franchise-record 12-game slide from Feb. 15-March 29, 1982. Despite those struggles, Utah is tied with Phoenix for ninth in the West, 1 1/2 games back of eighth-place Memphis for the final playoff position.
The Jazz's home losing streak reached six Monday, as they fell 107-102 to Boston. Encouraged by the near upset, they signed coach Ty Corbin to a multiyear contract Wednesday, less than a month after he succeeded Hall of Fame coach Jerry Sloan. Corbin served as an assistant under Sloan since 2004-05, and the organization favored getting a deal done now. "We don't believe in putting a coach in that position," CEO Randy Rigby said. "He really is the right man." Al Jefferson had 28 points and a season-high 19 rebounds as he continues to emerge as an offensive force. The forward-center is averaging 27.2 points and 11.0 boards over the last six games, but the Jazz have lost five.
Jefferson had 28 points with 10 rebounds in a 113-106 win at Denver on Feb. 4. Devin Harris, who had 19 points against the Celtics, is also providing a bright spot for Utah, averaging 16.7 points and 7.3 assists in three games since being acquired with rookie forward Derrick Favors, two first-round picks and cash from the Nets. Chandler is averaging 16.8 points in four games since Denver got him in the package from the Knicks. The forward is one of five Nuggets to score at least 20 points in a game since the trade, but none have reached that over the last two games both wins. "I know the other team doesn't know how we're going to score because I don't know how we're going to score. But we do score. Nice problem," coach George Karl said.
Newly-acquired Danilo Gallinari is expected to be out of action for at least a week after fracturing his big left toe. The 6-foot-10 sharpshooter put up 30 points against Portland on Friday before going on the shelf. He was putting up 15.9 points per game while he was with the Knicks. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall. The Jazz are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. The over is 9-2 in Denver’s last 11 road games and 5-1 in its last six playing without a days’ rest. The over is also 11-1 in Utah’s last 12 playing on two days rest. Head-to-head, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the over is 8-2 in the last 10 encounters. The Jazz are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four at home against the Nuggets.
--UTAH is 18-42 against the 1rst half line (-28.2 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was UTAH 47.6, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 25-7 OVER (+17.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 106.9, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 1; O/U 210
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -0.41
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DENVER) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(136-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +72.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -228.4
The average score in these games was: Team 103.7, Opponent 95 (Average point differential = +8.7)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2, +5.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (83-18, +43.3 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (284-90, +71.5 units).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 10 points or more.
(68-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +39.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -175.6
The average score in these games was: Team 105.5, Opponent 97.9 (Average point differential = +7.6)
The situation's record this season is: (7-1, +5.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (54-13, +31.6 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (104-31, +43.5 units).
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***** THURSDAY, MARCH 3RD NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL KNOWLEDGE *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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••• QUICK HITS •••
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• TENNESSEE @ S CAROLINA, 7:00 PM ET
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--TENNESSEE: 19-8 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival.
--S CAROLINA: 9-19 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games.
South Carolina (+12) lost 73-67 at Tennessee Feb 16, shooting 10-32 on arc- they were outscored 21-9 on foul line. Vols lost five of last seven games, losing three of last four here. Carolina is 1-6 in last seven games, 2-4 as SEC road dog. SEC home underdogs of 7 or less points 13-5-3 vs spread. Tennessee C Williams is banged up, hasn't practiced this week.
• ST JOHNS @ SETON HALL, 7:00 PM ET
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--ST JOHNS: 11-3 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread.
--SETON HALL: 13-23 ATS after a conference game.
St John's won/covered its last six games and they were dog in five of the six- they're 5-3 on Big East road, winning last three away games. Storm is 2-2 as Big East favorite. Seton Hall lost five of last six games; they're 5-7 as Big East underdog- they lost last two home games by a combined total of 5 points. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-6-1.
• GEORGIA TECH @ WAKE FOREST, 8:00 PM ET
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--GEORGIA TECH: 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games.
--WAKE FOREST: 0-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent.
Wake Forest (+13) got waxed 74-39 at Georgia Tech Jan 19, making just 9-26 from foul line, 26% from floor- they've lost last eight games, are 2-4 as favorite this year, all in non-ACC games. ACC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-12 vs spread. Tech lost last eight ACC games (0-5-1 vs spread)- they're 1-4-1 as road dog, losing by 11-25-8-2-25-22-5.
• OREGON @ ARIZONA ST, 9:00 PM ET
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--OREGON: 3-12 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent.
--ARIZONA ST: 1-7 ATS after scoring 60 points or less.
Arizona State is just 2-14 in Pac-10, but they won 60-55 (+1.5) Jan 1 in Eugene, last game at Mac Court; Ducks shot 32% for game, 4-16 on arc. Sun Devils are 1-5 vs spread in last six games, 0-3 as Pac-10 fave, losing six of seven home games. Oregon covered four of its last five road tilts. Pac-10 home favorites of 4 or less points are 6-9 against the spread.
• OREGON ST @ ARIZONA, 8:30 PM ET
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--OREGON ST: 26-45 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival.
--ARIZONA: 9-1 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more.
Arizona (-8) lost 76-75 at Oregon State Jan 1, making just 13-24 at foul line; Wildcats did shoot 56% from floor. OSU is 1-6 as Pac-10 road dog, losing away games by 14-31-28-14-11-8-19 points- they lost eight of last 10 overall. Arizona lost twice in LA last week; they're 3-4 as home fave. Double digit home favorites are 6-9-1 vs spread in Pac-10 play.
• CS-NORTHRIDGE @ CAL DAVIS, 10:00 PM ET
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--CS-NORTHRIDGE: 16-6 ATS off a home win.
--CAL DAVIS: 1-8 ATS in all home games.
Cal-Davis (-1) lost 87-81 at Northridge Dec 30; both teams shot 50%+ from floor. Aggies lost last six games (1-3 vs spread in last four); they're 2-4 at home in Big West, beating Riverside/Irvine. Matadors are 3-3 on Big West road, losing by 14-3-23 points- they're 4-2-1 as an underdog. Big West home favorites of less than 6 points are 10-12-1 vs spread.
• CS-FULLERTON @ PACIFIC, 10:00 PM ET
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--CS-FULLERTON: 22-10 ATS in road games after a loss by 6 points or less.
--PACIFIC: 2-9 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games.
Pacific (-5.5) lost 54-51 at Fullerton Dec 30, Tigers were just 8-28 from arc- Titans had only 3 turnovers. Pacific is 3-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 3-17-4-24 points (lost to top two teams). Fullerton lost last four games (0-4 vs spread); they're 2-4 as road dog, losing its away games by 7-4-24-15-15. Big West home favorites of 9+ points are 5-13.
• HAWAII @ SAN JOSE ST, 10:30 PM ET
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--HAWAII: 8-1 ATS off a home win.
--SAN JOSE ST: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less.
San Jose (+5) lost 67-61 at Hawai'i Jan 23, shooting 31%; Spartans won four of last six games after starting 1-7 in WAC. Warriors won eight of last ten games, are 3-3 as WAC road dog, losing away games by 8-17-18-14 points. WAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 11-5 vs spread. Hawai'i is 2-4 on road, losing away games by 8-17-18-14 points.
• USC @ WASHINGTON ST, 10:00 PM ET
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--USC: 9-2 ATS in road games after a combined score of 115 points or less.
--WASHINGTON ST: 0-8 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent.
Washington State (+3.5) lost 60-56 at USC Dec 31, shooting 37% from floor; Cougars covered once in last six games as favorite- they won five of seven Pac-10 home games, with four of five wins by 7+ points. Pac-10 home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-12 vs spread. Trojans won last four games, allowing 52 ppg in last three- they're 2-2 as an underdog.
• UCLA @ WASHINGTON, 9:00 PM ET
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--UCLA: 0-6 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more.
--WASHINGTON: 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games.
Washington (-4) won 74-63 at UCLA Dec 31, despite being outscored 25-12 on foul line, but Huskies are 3-5 in last eight games, allowing 76+ points in five of last six- they're 3-4 as home favorite. UCLA won seven of last eight games, with only loss in OT- they're 0-3 as an underdog in league play. Pac-10 home favorites are 24-28-1 vs spread this season.
• WISCONSIN @ INDIANA, 9:00 PM ET (TC)
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--WISCONSIN: 70-44 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers.
--INDIANA: 21-37 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals.
Indiana lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); Hoosiers (+13) lost 69-60 at Wisconsin Jan 20- they led by 4 at half. Indiana is 6-5 as dog, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 9-18-1-6-11 points. Wisconsin won seven of last eight games; they're 8-5 as Big 11 favorite, 1-3 on road, winning road games by 32-1-3 points. Big 11 home underdogs of 7 or less points are 10-8 against the spread.
*** MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT ***
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• ILLINOIS ST VS. S ILLINOIS, 7:00 PM ET
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--ILLINOIS ST: 9-18 ATS in all games.
--S ILLINOIS: 1-7 ATS in all neutral court games.
Home team won both Southern Illinois-Illinois State games this year by 4 points; State lost six of last seven games, Salukis lost nine of last ten. Southern is 0-3 in this event last three years, losing by 5-12-2 points, scoring only 55 ppg. Redbirds are 5-3 in this event last three years, with first-round wins by 5-10-4 points. State's last three wins overall are by a total of four points.
• BRADLEY VS. DRAKE, 9:30 PM ET
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--BRADLEY: 6-0 UNDER as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less.
--DRAKE: 8-2 UNDER as a neutral court underdog.
Home side won both Bradley-Drake games this year, with Drake losing 90-64 in Peoria five days ago, after winning by 6 in January. Drake lost three of last four games- they're 1-8 in MVC road games, winning only at So Illinois. Bradley is 5-3 in last eight games after starting Valley play 0-11- they've also lost eight of their nine MVC road games.
• REST OF THURSDAY'S CARD
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--NEVADA @ LOUISIANA TECH, 9:00 PM ET NEVADA: 9-1 ATS in road games after a loss by 6 points or less. LOUISIANA TECH: 2-9 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.
--FRESNO ST @ IDAHO, 10:00 PM ET FRESNO ST: 2-9 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points. IDAHO: 16-8 ATS in all games.
--TENN-MARTIN VS. TENNESSEE TECH, 7:00 PM ET TENN-MARTIN: 14-5 ATS against conference opponents. TENNESSEE TECH: 1-5 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less.
--SE MISSOURI ST VS. AUSTIN PEAY, 9:25 PM - Ohio Valley Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Nashville, TN ET SE MISSOURI ST: 5-1 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive unders. AUSTIN PEAY: 7-1 UNDER after a cover as a double digit favorite.
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
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Stan 'The Man Szumera continues to make history as one of the Nation's Top Sports Gaming Analysts of all time. The Man's reputation as the ultimate Sports Insider expands by the year. His coveted early NCAA College Basketball, along with his National Basketball Association Selections have literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts in this business today who can equal his big play record over the years.
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••• NOTES & TIPS •••
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--Washington’s outside shooting let the club down in Sunday’s 80-69 upset loss to Washington State and the Huskies are keeping that in mind heading into Thursday’s big game with UCLA. UW missed 12 of its first 13 trey attempts and coach Lorenzo Romar wants his club to be more careful with shot selection from outside against UCLA’s tough defense. "That's another area we have to get better in, in two days before we play UCLA -- being more patient in turning some (3's) down," Romar said. "If you eliminate the contested ones, you want shoot as many but your percentage will go up - the ol' less-is more theory."
--The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets don’t have much left to play for as they finish out the string in a miserable season - maybe apart from coach Paul Hewitt’s job. The team is just 11-17 straight up as they face they visit a terrible Wake Forest club as a 5-point favorite and word is Hewitt may be let go after the season. "I think as we get to the close of the season (Athletic Director Dan Radakovich) will remain true to his philosophy and will sit down with coach Hewitt and discuss where we go from here,” Associate Athletic Director Wayne Hogan told reporters. “That won't occur before the end of the season.”
--A possible gun charge against Seton Hall point guard Jordan Theodore is being reviewed by the Essex County prosecutor's office. Katherine Carter, the prosecutor's office spokeswoman, said a municipal judge in South Orange-Maplewood found probable cause on Tuesday that Theodore had unlawful possession of a weapon on school property. SNY.tv had reported that the Englewood resident was being investigated for an incident after the Pirates' game against Villanova on Feb. 15. Carter said Wednesday that the prosecutor's office will review the case and decide whether to charge Theodore with the third-degree offense, which is punishable by up five years in prison if convicted. Laura Wankel, the university's vice president of student affairs, issued a statement Wednesday night saying the school conducted an investigation into the matter and found "no student in violation" of university policy.
"The university takes seriously any report that potentially threatens the safety and well-being of our community," Wankel said. The Pirates host No. 15 St. John's on Thursday night. SNY.tv reported that Municipal Court Judge Jonathan Rosenbluth did not find probable cause for allegations filed against Theodore by Darlene Epps for aggravated assault, aggravated assault with a vehicle and possession of a firearm without a permit. According to SNY.tv, the incident happened days after Keon Lawrence and Jamel Jackson were dismissed from the team on Feb. 12 by coach Kevin Willard for a violation of team rules and "an ongoing pattern of conduct unbecoming of a representative of Seton Hall athletics." Theodore was quoted as saying that Willard had no choice in kicking the players off the team.
--Brandon Davies was dismissed from BYU's basketball team after he admitted to having sexual relations with his girlfriend, the Salt Lake Tribune reported Wednesday. BYU's honor code forbids students from having premarital sex and instructs them to "live a chaste and virtuous life." The newspaper reported that Davies met with school officials on Monday. BYU officials would only confirm Wednesday that Davies wasn't involved in anything criminal that resulted in his dismissal from the team. University spokeswoman Carri Jenkins said an honor code review is under way to determine if the BYU sophomore will be allowed to remain in school, as well as his status with the team next season. BYU's honor code also requires students to be honest; abstain from alcoholic beverages, tobacco, tea, coffee and substance abuse; and attend church regularly. The school announced the dismissal on Tuesday night after being made aware of the violation Monday -- the same day that BYU (27-2, 13-1 Mountain West) vaulted to No. 3 in the ESPN/USA Today and AP polls.
--Dante Jackson was the last Xavier player to climb the step ladder and cut a piece of the nylon net. He held up his small, white keepsake for the crowd to cheer. Another Xavier senior class had come away with a snippet of a title. Jackson scored 18 points one shy of his career high and Xavier (No. 23 AP) beat Charlotte 68-48 on Wednesday night to secure at least a share of its fifth straight Atlantic 10 regular season title, matching the league record. The Musketeers (23-6, 14-1) overcame a series of injuries, winning their latest title with a depleted roster that was good enough to uphold a tradition. During its 16 seasons in the A-10, Xavier has won outright or shared nine regular season titles and four tournament championships. Wednesday's victory secured the top seed in the conference tournament and left Xavier one game ahead of Temple with one to play.
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••• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS ••• - All Types - NCAAB - Displays the Highest Rated Active Super Situational Systems for Upcoming Games. This includes all situation types including ATS, money line, total, halftime, and teaser.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* CAL DAVIS -175 - (82.7%)
4* BRADLEY -0.5 - (81.2%)
4* CS-NORTHRIDGE +5 - (80.6%)
3* OREGON +1 - (79.4%)
3* ST JOHNS/SETON HALL OVER 130 - (72.4%)
--PLAY ON - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (CAL DAVIS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games.
(86-18 since 1997.) (82.7%, +45.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -225.3
The average score in these games was: Team 75.3, Opponent 68.4 (Average point differential = +6.9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +1.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-1, +16.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (29-5, +15.2 units).
--PLAY ON - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (BRADLEY) - good FT shooting team (69-73%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 60% of their shots or better.
(26-6 since 1997.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.4, Opponent 28 (Average first half point differential = +6.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CAL DAVIS) - good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent.
(29-7 since 1997.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-23)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.9
The average score in these games was: Team 68.5, Opponent 69.5 (Average point differential = -1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (35.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
--PLAY ON - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (OREGON) - in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (>=20/game), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher.
(27-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 35.2, Opponent 31.4 (Average first half point differential = +3.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (43-21).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams against the total (ST JOHNS) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
(42-16 since 1997.) (72.4%, +24.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 134.8
The average score in these games was: Team 73.5, Opponent 67.9 (Total points scored = 141.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (52.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (32-12).
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***** MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT *****
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In my opinion the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is a little bit like a starting gun for March Madness. That league championship really signifies the beginning of the insanity that is about to envelop the sports betting world and offers the first glimpse into the unique situations and challenges that lie ahead. The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, also known as Arch Madness, begins Thursday, March 3 in St. Louis. The 10-team tournament starts with a pair of “play-in” games on Thursday night before the quarterfinals begin at noon on Friday. By Sunday a champion will be crowned and one of the first automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament will be secured.
• THE FAVORITE: WICHITA STATE (+150) - I know that Missouri State won the regular season title. But ask any player, coach or fan of the Missouri Valley and they will tell you that the Shockers have the most talent of any club in the league. I know the Shockers are just 3-3 straight up in their last six games and just 1-5 against the spread during that time. It appears they are “stumbling down the stretch”. But the reality is that this team has lost only five games since Dec. 5 and those losses have been by an average of just three points per game. They have gone 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and in a league where home court means so much I think those numbers speak volumes about just how good this club can be.
• THE CONTENDER: MISSOURI STATE (+135) - The top seed has won the championship and automatic berth three consecutive years and they have made the title game four straight times. The Bears are the top seed in this tournament so I know most people would consider them the favorite. The Bears have to be riding high after a home win over the Shockers to claim the regular season crown. This is one of the best shooting teams in the country (No. 44 field goal percentage, No. 35 from three-point range). They have four players that have hit 40 percent or more of their threes this year, and that doesn’t even count clutch shooter Adam Leonard. I feel like Missouri State controls its own destiny. If they get hot and start knocking down their shots then they will be unbeatable. But that’s really the only way I can see them winning three games in three days because they don’t have size, depth or a strong defense, and they are overreliant on the three.
• THE SLEEPER: CREIGHTON (+800) - I have felt throughout Missouri Valley play that the Blue Jays hadn’t played up to their potential yet. I still think they are a year away from dominating this league, but right now I think they have enough talent to have a say in who comes out of The Valley. Greg Echenique gives them a unique presence on the interior and if their freshmen, including up-and-comer Doug McDermott, use St. Louis as a breakout point then the Blue Jays could find themselves in the title game. At one point between 1998 and 2007 Creighton won seven titles in nine years, so it’s in their blood to dominate Arch Madness.
• THE SPOILER: INDIANA STATE (+500) - The Sycamores aren’t good enough to win this tournament, but they are definitely good enough to spring an upset. They are another team that lives and dies by the three. And if they are connecting from deep they can be tough. They also have wins over Missouri State, Creighton and Northern Iowa this year and they took Wichita State to OT on the road so they have proven that they can play with the top-tier teams. They have been kind of a hard-luck team this year with injuries and I don’t think they will stay in the fold long. But don’t be stunned if they reach the semis and either knock someone out or at least threaten to knock someone out.
••• THE MATCHUPS •••
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--No. 8 Southern Illinois vs. No. 9 Illinois State (7 p.m., Thursday, March 3) - The winner plays Missouri State on Friday and this intrastate “rivalry” game offers the proverbial contrast in styles. Basically, Southern Illinois wants to lock down on defense and can’t score at all while Illinois State seems like it’s allergic to defense while they can occasionally put the rock in the hole. Predictably, these teams split the season series with each club winning at home. Illinois State covered both games and both times the difference in the final score was four points. Personally I won’t be betting or probably even watching this game; both of these teams stink.
--No. 7 Drake vs. No. 10 Bradley (9:30 p.m., Thursday, March 3) - I don’t know what got into the Bulldogs, but over the course of the last month-plus of the regular season they were as hot as anyone in the league. They went 8-2 ATS down the stretch and posted wins over Northern Iowa and Creighton, they won their Bracket Buster, and they nearly beat Missouri State at home. Bradley has been THE hard luck team in The Valley this year and the roster has been decimated by injuries. However, they just beat Drake by 26 points in their meeting last week. It’s doubtful that will happen again, but it has to give this team some confidence.
--No. 4 Northern Iowa vs. No. 5 Creighton (2:30 p.m., Friday, March 4) - The Panthers are the defending Valley champions and a Sweet 16 team from last year. But right now they are a sinking ship. This team is 1-6 SU in its last seven games and just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games (6-13 ATS in their L19). This game is also a rematch from a game last Saturday that Creighton won, 63-55. The Blue Jays actually trailed at the half but controlled the final 20 minutes. They should take advantage of Northern Iowa’s suddenly soft interior. But regardless, this one should come down to the final four minutes.
--No. 3 Indiana State vs. No. 6 Evansville (8:30 p.m., Friday, March 4) - The Sycamores have the higher seed, but I’d have to say that Evansville comes into this matchup with all of the confidence. The Purple Aces swept the season series and posed some real matchup problems for ISU. The Sycamores are still without Jake Kelly (mono), but they have also been hot, winning five of six overall and six of seven against the spread. It is hard to beat any team three times in one season. Especially when you are not better than that team.
--Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Predictions: Last year Wichita State came up short in the MVC Championship Game against Northern Iowa. That will give them that little extra bit of motivation that they will need here. I love the Shockers’ depth. And in a three-day slugfest that will make a tremendous difference for them. I think that they are actually offering tremendous value given their path. They will dominate Drake or Bradley and then they will have a massive physical edge over ISU or Evansville. That would leave the winner of the Missouri State/UNI/Creighton wing and I think Wichita will wear them down. Go with the Shockers to take the title.
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NOTE: College Basketball betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand College Basketball Lines, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these College Basketball Lines with the public in mind. They know the general public is going to bet on the popular teams every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like this.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best College Basketball Lines. Many different books release different numbers and College Basketball Lines always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best College Basketball Lines, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** #505 TENNESSEE (-4.5, O/U 133.5) @ #506 SOUTH CAROLINA ***
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As the regular season winds down, the Tennessee Volunteers and the South Carolina Gamecocks will square off in SEC action tonight. This season has certainly been a disappointing one for Tennessee, which has lost five of its last seven games to fall to 17-12 overall and an even 7-7 in conference action. Head coach Bruce Pearl watched last Saturday as his team lost a heart-breaker to Mississippi State, 70-69, in front of a deflated home crowd. Tennessee defeated South Carolina in a 73-67 final last month to increase its lead in the all-time series to 34-23.
As for South Carolina, it has lost six of its last seven games to fall to 14-13 overall and 5-9 in conference. The Gamecocks put forth a poor offensive showing in last Saturday's 64-48 setback to Georgia on the road, but they now return home where they are 11-5 to date. Bruce Ellington continues to lead South Carolina in scoring this season with 13.1 ppg, but his 33.3 percent shooting from the floor leaves much to be desired.
Ellington has handed out a team-high 89 assists, but he even struggles from the foul line. Sam Muldrow has blocked a staggering total of 90 shots, and he also brings 11.0 ppg and 7.0 rpg to the court. Ramon Galloway rounds out the unit's double-digit scorers with 10.5 ppg, but it is hard to get too excited about his 35 percent field goal efficiency. The Gamecocks are registering 68.3 ppg while surrendering 69.3 ppg to foes. In the recent loss to Georgia, South Carolina made good on only 28.3 percent of its total shots, which included a horrendous 1-of-19 showing from three-point range. A 42-34 rebounding deficit also hurt the cause.
Scotty Hopson has led Tennessee in scoring in five consecutive games, and he has netted at least 22 points in four of those outings. The standout guard is now averaging 17.6 ppg for the season, and the only other double-digit scorer on the roster is freshman forward Tobias Harris with his 14.3 ppg. Harris is also ripping down 7.6 rpg and is considered one of the most talented rookies in all of college basketball. Through 29 games, UT is scoring 70.8 ppg while allowing 66.7 ppg to opponents.
In the one-point loss to Mississippi State last weekend, Hopson scored 22 points, while Harris finished with 16. The Vols earned a 16-12 edge in points from the foul line, a 48-40 rebounding advantage and limited the Bulldogs to 39.7 percent shooting. Unfortunately, Hopson and company couldn't overcome their own 36.4 percent field goal efficiency. Both of these teams will be in action on the first day of the SEC Tournament, and neither seems capable of winning that event. As for this evening's clash, give a narrow edge to the Vols.
--S CAROLINA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game this season.
The average score was S CAROLINA 73.0, OPPONENT 77.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
The average score was TENNESSEE 64.0, OPPONENT 60.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Tennessee by 3; O/U 136
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Tennessee -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Tennessee -3.17
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Road teams against the total (TENNESSEE) - off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(52-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +26.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 63.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.4, Opponent 30.7 (Total first half points scored = 61)
The situation's record this season is: (7-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-14).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (72-46).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (TENNESSEE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(67-35 since 1997.) (65.7%, +28.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.8
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 69.5 (Total points scored = 137.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 53 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (20-16).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-21).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (51-27).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call us toll-free in the office at 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” –Stan ‘The Man
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*** #507 ST JOHN'S (-2.5, O/U 128) @ #508 SETON HALL ***
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No team in the country has beaten more Top 25 teams than St. John's. The Red Storm, however, must focus on beating two lesser opponents this week to earn a double-bye in the Big East tournament. It's been 13 years since St. John's won a road game against Seton Hall, and the No. 15 Red Storm will look to end that streak Thursday night by posting their seventh straight win. St. John's (19-9, 11-5) has won six in a row in Big East play for the first time since a seven-game run Feb. 5-29, 2000. The Red Storm's six wins over ranked teams match the totals by No. 7 Texas, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 11 Louisville and No. 12 Syracuse for the most in the country.
The Red Storm can clinch a top-four finish in the Big East and a double-bye in next week's conference tournament by beating two of the league's worst teams this week in Seton Hall (11-17, 5-11) and South Florida. "These games are actually harder," senior forward Justin Burrell insisted. "If you see throughout college basketball when a team that, for the lack of a better word, is supposed to win the game, if you see those games are sometimes close, because teams overlook them, or don't come out with the same intensity." Another big effort by leading scorer Dwight Hardy would help St. John's avoid a letdown.
Hardy is averaging 25.5 points on 51.7 percent shooting during this win streak to become a front-runner for Big East player of the year honors. The senior guard scored a career-high 34 points in Saturday's 81-68 win at then-No. 15 Villanova. "When I don't hesitate on the court, I can be a very dangerous player," said Hardy, 18 of 34 from 3-point range over the last six games. "I'm in a bit of a groove right now and I want to keep it going." D.J. Kennedy has posted three of his four double-doubles in this win streak, averaging 12.2 points and 7.3 boards.
The Red Storm have dropped their last six visits to Seton Hall since a 64-60 victory Feb. 15, 1998. The Pirates have won seven of the last 10 meetings overall. St. John's coach Steve Lavin has cited those facts as well as the play of Seton Hall's Jeremy Hazell and Herb Pope as concerns. Hazell averages a team-high 18.5 points and Pope a team-best 8.2 rebounds. "Pope is as dangerous a front-line player in terms of versatility and creating matchup problems for opponents as there is in the league." Lavin said. "And Hazell is as prolific a scorer as there is in the country." It's unclear how effective Pope will be after he made 1 of 9 shots for four points and grabbed four rebounds while being under the weather in Seton Hall's third straight loss Saturday, 60-48 to the Fighting Irish.
"Herb has the flu, so the fact that he played 29 minutes was great," coach Kevin Willard said. "He would have played more (if he was healthy)." Point guard Jordan Theodore is expected to play despite Essex County prosecutors weighing a potential gun charge against him from an incident last month following the dismissals of Keon Lawrence and Jamel Jackson from the team. Theodore is second on the team in scoring at 10.7 points per game but has been held to nine combined in his last two. Seton Hall is the worst shooting team in the Big East at 40.5 percent, and one of the country's worst 3-point shooting teams at 28.4 percent. The Pirates are 1-8 against Top 25 teams.
--SETON HALL is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.
The average score was SETON HALL 62.9, OPPONENT 67.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--ST JOHNS is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST JOHNS 62.6, OPPONENT 60.2 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - St John's by 2; O/U 131.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - St John's -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Seton Hall -0.55
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (ST JOHNS) - after successfully covering the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.
(28-6 since 1997.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 125.9
The average score in these games was: Team 69, Opponent 66.2 (Total points scored = 135.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (55.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2).
--PLAY ON - Road favorites vs. the money line (ST JOHNS) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games.
(128-41 since 1997.) (75.7%, +57.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -172
The average score in these games was: Team 70.2, Opponent 64 (Average point differential = +6.2)
The situation's record this season is: (18-7, +3.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (71-22, +35.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (88-31, +38.9 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SETON HALL) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more.
(65-29 since 1997.) (69.1%, +33.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (63-32)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average score in these games was: Team 72.1, Opponent 68.8 (Average point differential = +3.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 34 (37.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-9).
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*** #509 GEORGIA TECH (-5.5, O/U NA) @ #510 WAKE FOREST ***
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Atlantic Coast Conference foes will clash in ACC action this evening, as the Wake Forest Demon Deacons play host to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Losses in three straight games and in eight of the last nine outings have dropped Georgia Tech to 11-17 overall and 3-11 in conference action. The Yellow Jackets fell to NC State last Saturday by a 79-74 final and are now a lowly 0-10 in true road games, not exactly reason for optimism heading into this evening's affair.
Wake Forest enters with the weight of an eight-game losing streak, as the team hasn't tasted victory since January. The Demon Deacons, who are 8-21 overall and 1-13 in conference, put forth a poor offensive effort in a 63-49 loss at Clemson last Saturday. If there is any reason at all for confidence tonight it will stem from the fact that seven of Wake's eight wins this season have come at home. Georgia Tech absolutely crushed Wake Forest in a 74-39 final back in January, overshadowing the fact that the Demon Deacons still own a 36-34 advantage in the all-time series.
Through 28 outings, Georgia Tech is scoring 68.3 ppg, almost identical to the 68.2 ppg that the team is surrendering. The Yellow Jackets are led by Iman Shumpert, as he is netting 17.2 ppg to go along with 6.1 rpg, 99 assists and 70 steals, numbers that represent team highs in all four categories. Glen Rice is second on the Tech roster with 13.4 ppg. Shumpert led the charge for the Yellow Jackets in the loss to NC State on Saturday, as he tallied 21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and three steals. Mfon Udofia pitched in 13 points, and Rice registered 12. Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, they struggled at the defensive end, permitting NC State to shoot 50 percent from the field.
Overall this season, Wake Forest is netting 67.7 ppg while surrendering 76.7 ppg to opponents. In conference games alone, however, the Demon Deacons are being outscored by a staggering 18.2 ppg, as they have failed to even be competitive most times out. Travis McKie paces four double-digit scorers for Wake with 12.7 ppg, and he is tops with 7.7 rpg as well. J.T. Terrell checks in with 11.5 ppg, although his 37.8 percent shooting from the field leaves much to be desired.
Gary Clark's 51.5 percent shooting is far more impressive, and he is netting 10.5 ppg, slightly better than the 10.4 ppg attributed to C.J. Harris, the club's primary playmaker (108 assists). Against Clemson last Saturday, the Deaconss shot just 33.9 percent from the field, which included a woeful 2-of-12 showing from three-point range. Nikita Mescheriakov was the only double-digit scorer in the loss with 11 points. Although Wake has the obvious advantage of playing this game at home, the edge goes to Georgia Tech. Shumpert will be the best player on the court for either team by far, enabling the Yellow Jackets to earn their only true road win of the season.
--WAKE FOREST is 13-2 against the 1rst half line (+10.8 Units) in home games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts since 1997.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 41.9, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--GEORGIA TECH is 3-16 against the 1rst half line (-14.6 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was GEORGIA TECH 29.5, OPPONENT 34.9 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Georgia Tech by 3.5; O/U 141.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Georgia Tech -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Georgia Tech -5.10
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (WAKE FOREST) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (<=32%) after 15+ games.
(111-24 since 1997.) (82.2%, +56.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -226.5
The average score in these games was: Team 72.1, Opponent 63.9 (Average point differential = +8.3)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3, +1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-14, +10.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (52-15, +19.9 units).
--PLAY ON - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (GEORGIA TECH) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record.
(49-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.1, Opponent 30.8 (Average first half point differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (9-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-14).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (117-87).
--PLAY ON - A road team (GEORGIA TECH) - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season.
(83-37 since 1997.) (69.2%, +42.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (30-94)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.4
The average score in these games was: Team 63.5, Opponent 71.8 (Average point differential = -8.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 37 (30.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (9-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-13).
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*** #515 OREGON STATE @ #516 ARIZONA (-15.5, O/U NA) ***
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It's been 12 seasons since Arizona finished unbeaten at home. Accomplishing that feat this season would guarantee the 18th-ranked Wildcats at least a share of their first Pac-10 title since 2004-05. Facing a struggling Oregon State would seem to help Arizona move a step closer to that crown, but the Beavers have proved difficult to beat in recent matchups. The Wildcats will try to remain atop their conference by snapping a three-game skid to Oregon State on Thursday night. An eight-game win streak seemed to put Arizona in good position to end its title drought, but back-to-back losses dropped the Wildcats (23-6, 12-4) into a tie with UCLA atop the Pac-10.
Arizona completed an empty weekend in Los Angeles with its most lopsided loss of the season, 71-49 to the Bruins on Saturday. Arizona shot a season-worst 31.5 percent in that defeat and was outrebounded 40-26. The Wildcats, the second-best scoring team in their league (76.6 ppg), averaged 53.0 points on 33.6 percent shooting in those losses. Arizona, though, will play its final two regular-season games at the McKale Center, where it's 15-0. The Wildcats last finished unbeaten at home in 1998-99, going 14-0. "We have two home games left and we have to get the job done," center Kyryl Natyazhko said.
Oregon State (10-17, 5-11) heads into Tucson having lost 11 of 14 since a thrilling 76-75 home win over Arizona on Jan. 3. Joe Burton's basket in the lane with 28 seconds remaining helped the Beavers hold off the Wildcats. Oregon State claimed its first victory in Tucson in 27 years last February but has dropped nine straight on the road since its lone win there this season, 84-74 at Howard on Nov. 27. "We're going to have to play really good defense," coach Craig Robinson said. "I thought we got away with (Arizona leading scorer Derrick) Williams having a bad day at the foul line the last time we played them. That's not going to happen again." Wildcats coach Sean Miller said Robinson's 1-3-1 zone has been effective against his team in previous matchups.
Miller said the Beavers don't use that defense as much this season as they did the previous campaign, but he expects them to see it Thursday. "Their 1-3-1 has really bothered us," Miller said. "I anticipating they'll play it a lot against us because they've had success against us. It's one of the many factors that will play into Thursday's game is our ability to get shots against that (defense)." Williams, second in the Pac-10 in scoring (19.1 ppg), hasn't experienced too many problems against the Beavers, having averaged 16.3 points on 68.0 percent shooting in three career matchups. He scored 16 in the loss at Oregon State but went 3 for 10 from the line. Lamont Jones scored 20 for Arizona, while Oregon State's leading scorer Jared Cunningham (13.8 ppg) had 17 and Calvin Haynes tallied 18. That game marked only Arizona's fifth loss in 23 meetings with the Beavers. The Wildcats lead the series 51-20 and hold a 28-6 edge in Tucson.
--ARIZONA is 13-3 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 36.6, OPPONENT 31.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--OREGON ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON ST 65.5, OPPONENT 67.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Arizona by 17.5; O/U 142
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Arizona -14.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Arizona -17.69
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (ARIZONA) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
(32-6 since 1997.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 28.4, Opponent 31.2 (Average first half point differential = -2.8)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-6).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10 or more points (OREGON ST) - after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (8-36 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 14.2
The average score in these games was: Team 65, Opponent 74 (Average point differential = -9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (45.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (68-52).
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*** #525 USC @ #526 WASHINGTON STATE (-4, O/U NA) ***
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Looking to improve on a season-long four-game win streak, the USC Trojans will take their act to Beasley Coliseum, for a Pac-10 date with the Washington State Cougars. The Trojans have won five of their last six games to sit in fourth place in the Pac-10 with a 9-7 league mark. With a win tonight, they would move to .500 in league road contests, at 4-4. Washington State currently occupies the sixth-spot in the Pac-10 standings with an 8-8 record. The Cougars downed Washington, 80-69, on Sunday, to halt a two-game skid. They are 5-2 in league home games.
With respect to the all-time series, tonight's matchup marks the 111th meeting between USC and Washington State. The Trojans currently hold a 67-43 lead, which includes a 60-56 victory earlier this season. USC last played on Saturday, in a 62-46 drubbing of Arizona State. The Trojans, who rank second in the Pac-10 in field goal percentage defense (40.6 percent), held the Sun Devils to a season-low 30.6 percent shooting, which included a 3-of-14 performance from beyond the arc. Nikola Vucevic provided offensive pop for USC, as he finished with 20 points and 10 boards. Alex Stepheson turned in a double-double as well, with 15 points and 10 boards, while Donte Smith added 12 points.
Vucevic is averaging a double-double on the year, as he leads the team in scoring (17.5 ppg) and rebounding (10.3 rpg). Stepheson ranks second on the team in rebounding (8.8 rpg), to go with his 10 ppg. In all, the Trojans average a modest 66.7 ppg. Their strength lies on the defensive end, as they allow just 62.2 ppg, the fewest points per game allowed amongst conference teams. The Trojans are 12-0 when holding teams to less than 60 points.
On Sunday, a smothering first half defensive effort helped Washington State down rival Washington. The Cougars held the Huskies to just 17 first half points on 22.2 percent shooting (8-of-36). The Cougars then pulled away after the break, netting 56 points over the final 20 minutes, in a second half that saw them lead by as many as 21 points. Washington State held the Huskies to just 33.8 percent shooting for the game, and currently leads the Pac-10 in field goal percentage defense (39.1 percent).
Klay Thompson led the Washington State attack with 26 points, driven largely by a 13-of-14 performance from the foul line. DeAngelo Casto and Reggie Moore added 20 and 10 points, respectively. Thompson currently leads the Cougars and the Pac-10 in scoring at 21.4 ppg. Casto adds 11.7 ppg, as Washington State pours in 73.3 ppg. Defensively, the Cougars hold opponents to 66.3 ppg. Expect Washington State to earn the win tonight. While not as dominant as USC on the defensive end, the Cougars are capable of shutting teams down. Add the defensive capability to the talents of Thompson, the advantage that is the Washington State home court, and the result is a Cougars' victory.
--WASHINGTON ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 66.8, OPPONENT 75.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON ST is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 28.6, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Washington St by 4; O/U 131.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Washington St -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Washington St -5.26
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (USC) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog.
(94-51 since 1997.) (64.8%, +37.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.2, Opponent 32.6 (Average first half point differential = -0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (7-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-13).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (39-21).
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*** #527 UCLA @ #528 WASHINGTON (-8, O/U 149) ***
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Following a statement victory over then-No. 10 Arizona, the UCLA Bruins will look to continue their late-season surge, as they invade Bank of America Arena for a Pac-10 date with the Washington Huskies. UCLA downed Arizona 71-49 on Saturday to move into a tie with the Wildcats for first place in the Pac-10. The Bruins, who have won 12 of their last 14 games, now control their own destiny, and will finish no worse than first place in the league standings if they win their final two regular season games.
Meantime, Washington last played on Sunday, in an 80-69 loss to Washington State. The Huskies have lost two of their last three after reeling off three consecutive victories from Feb. 10th to Feb. 17th. With respect to the all-time series, tonight's matchup marks the 130th meeting between UCLA and Washington. The Bruins currently hold a 91-38 lead, although the Huskies have won the last two meetings. UCLA put together two solid halves of basketball - something it has struggled to do for the majority of the season - to upset Arizona on Saturday.
Reeves Nelson led the dominating charge, tallying a career-high 27 points and 16 rebounds. Joshua Smith added 17 points and Tyler Honeycutt finished with 15 points for the surging squad. Defensively, the Bruins turned in an impressive performance, as they held the Wildcats to a season-low 49 points. The stifling effort has become a staple recently, as the Bruins ranks third in the Pac-10 in scoring defense (65.7 ppg) and field goal percentage defense (41.6 percent). They employ a balanced offense, as five players average at least 9.9 ppg. Nelson leads the way at 14 ppg, as the Bruins average 71 ppg.
On Sunday, poor shot selection and a leaky defensive effort led to a setback for Washington. The Huskies, who thrive on the long ball, forced several shots from beyond the arc, hitting just 1-of-13 attempts from deep in a first half that saw them net only 17 points. For the game, the Huskies hit just 8-of-27 three-pointers and shot just 33.8 percent from the field. Isaiah Thomas managed to have an efficient night in the loss, as he scored a team-high 21 points on 8-of-16 shooting. Matt Bryan-Amaning turned in a double-double of 14 points and 10 boards, while Justin Holiday finished with 11 points and five assists.
Defensively, Washington turned in perhaps its worst 20 minutes of basketball in recent memory, allowing Washington State to score 56 second half points. Despite the lackluster effort on both sides of the ball, the Huskies still possess the top offense in the Pac-10 (85.4 ppg), which knocks down 9.1 three-pointers per game. Thomas and Bryan-Amaning prove to be a dangerous duo, as they average 16.9 and 16.5 ppg, respectively. On defense, the Huskies allow 70.9 ppg.
--WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 84.6, OPPONENT 68.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--UCLA is 21-5 OVER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more since 1997.
The average score was UCLA 37.5, OPPONENT 36.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Washington by 9.5; O/U 150
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Washington -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Washington -11.75
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON) - off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.
(33-8 since 1997.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 37.3, Opponent 29.3 (Average first half point differential = +8)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-0).
--PLAY ON - Home teams as a favorite or pick (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival.
(41-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +23.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (48-9 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 75.6, Opponent 66.1 (Average point differential = +9.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (29.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (75-42).
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*** #569 WISCONSIN (-6, O/U 129) @ #570 INDIANA ***
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Wisconsin completed a perfect home schedule in its last game. Now it will try to start carrying that success to the road with tournament time approaching. The No. 10 Badgers look to win their fourth straight when they take on Indiana in the first of two road games to close out the regular season. Wisconsin (22-6, 12-4 Big Ten) has gone 4-5 away from Madison, due in part to subpar shooting. The Badgers have made 40.4 percent from the field on the road compared to 49.2 at home. The Badgers are coming off a 78-63 win over Northwestern on Sunday in which they shot 57.4 percent.
Jon Leuer finished with 26 points and six rebounds while Jordan Taylor had 16 points and seven assists for Wisconsin, which went 16-0 at home. "All I said after the game was we closed out the home portion of the schedule," coach Bo Ryan said. "Now we still have games to play. But I've never talked about (finishing undefeated at home)." Wisconsin closes the regular season at No. 1 Ohio State on Sunday. The Badgers have won two of their last three road games, though they shot 37.3 percent in that span.
Leuer is averaging 16.3 points on the road and 21.3 at home. He and the Badgers will be trying for their eighth straight victory over the Hoosiers (12-17, 3-13). Wisconsin won the first meeting of the season 69-60 at Madison on Jan. 20 despite allowing Indiana to shoot 51 percent, as Taylor scored 28 points and Leuer added 20. Wisconsin has taken three in a row in Bloomington, limiting the Hoosiers to 54.3 points a game and 48.5 in the last two. Indiana shot 41 percent overall and 17.2 percent from 3-point range in the three contests. The Badgers face a struggling Indiana team that's dropped six straight and three in a row to Top 25 opponents.
The most recent of those matchups came Sunday, an 82-61 loss to the then-No. 2 Buckeyes. The Hoosiers shot 36 percent in the first half and trailed by 15 at the break. Indiana, which got 14 points from Verdell Jones III and 12 from Christian Watford, made 38.5 percent from the field overall. "You have to be clicking on the offensive and defensive end to beat a team like this," coach Tom Crean said. "When they started to get momentum we couldn't get it back." Indiana allowed an opponent to reach 70 points for the fourth straight game. The Hoosiers are giving up 72.1 points a contest in conference play.
--INDIANA is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 65.3, OPPONENT 71.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--WISCONSIN is 23-7 UNDER (+15.3 Units) in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WISCONSIN 59.3, OPPONENT 60.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Wisconsin by 8; O/U 131
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Wisconsin -9
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Wisconsin -4.98
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is 55.5 to 60.5 (INDIANA) - after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers.
(31-5 since 1997.) (86.1%, +25.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 58.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 27.6, Opponent 24.8 (Total first half points scored = 52.4)
The situation's record this season is: (9-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-4).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
(220-57 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +64.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -273.2
The average score in these games was: Team 72.7, Opponent 65.4 (Average point differential = +7.3)
The situation's record this season is: (29-16, -18.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (128-43, +7.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (587-177, +118.7 units).
