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UNC, Indiana renew rivalry
By Bruce Marshall

After first and second rounds of the Big Dance that suggested all sorts of wild matchup possibilities for the Sweet 16 and beyond, order seems to have been restored-albeit narrowly. The spry upset winners from the first round, and many of the potential rich storylines for the tournament, all would go down to defeat (some in more heartbreaking fashion than others) in the second round. The lowest seeds remaining in the Dance are all college hoops brand names (7 seed Wisconsin in the East, 10th and 11th seeds Syracuse and Gonzaga in the South). Surprisingly, there are a record six Atlantic Coast Conference teams still alive, which makes the Sweet 16 almost look like a continuation of the recent ACC Tourney at Washington, D.C.'s Verizon Center. Meanwhile, the Big East, Pac-12, and SEC barely maintain a pulse with one entry each.

Yet, we are always apt to reminisce, especially when it comes to this time of the basketball season. Vivid memories of past NCAA Tourneys help us recall each year, and past hoops seasons, more precisely. Especially since the Big Dance often provides us with matchups that are reminders of years gone by. And if it seems as if we keep landing on Indiana for a lot of these trips down memory lane, it's because the Hoosiers have often been at the eye of the March hurricane, with memorable games, players, and one particular coach often as the centerpiece for some unforgettable hoops.

Sweet 16-bound Indiana is back on the big stage again this week in another all-hoops blue blood battle against North Carolina. The Hoosiers and Tar Heels have tangled several times over the years, though a couple of their most memorable battles occurred in the Big Dance during the early 1980s. Moreover, the Philadelphia site for this week's East Regional recalls not only the venue for the Indiana Final Four win in 1976, but also the 1981 Final Four held at the old Spectrum, its site now a parking lot between the Phillies' Citizens Bank Park, the Eagles' Lincoln Financial Field, and the current Wells Fargo Center, which will host the hoops action this weekend.

Big Dance action in Philly, however, will always recall 1981 and the title game between Bob Knight's Indiana and Dean Smith's North Carolina.<

Of course, many historians remember that final game for an altogether different reason, played as it was on the evening of an assassination attempt on President Reagan earlier that day in Washington. The nation was unnerved, memories of JFK and Dallas in 1963 still fresh in many minds. The president's condition turned out to be more serious than was reported that afternoon and evening in a jumble of conflicting stories out of the D.C. news grid. Late in the afternoon, having determined that the president's condition probably wasn't life-threatening (which turned out to be an erroneous assumption), the decision was made in Philadelphia to go ahead with the Hoosiers-Tar Heels title game, to be televised by NBC. (The Academy Awards, scheduled to air on ABC on the same night, decided to postpone their event 24 hours until Tuesday.) So, there was a bit of surreal feeling surrounding the contest, with normal pre-game talk pre-empted, as was the halftime show, as NBC would be quick to switch back to Washington for news updates. Analyst Al McGuire, working alongside Dick Enberg in what would be NBC's last Final Four before CBS acquired the package in 1982, famously said on the air that he really didn't want to be watching or talking about a basketball game that night, setting the somber mood for the evening.

The 1981 Final Four, which also included LSU (IU's semifinal victim) and Ralph Sampson's Virginia (which lost to UNC in an all-ACC semifinal), had already been noteworthy for action earlier in the weekend, and not all of it on the court. Not surprisingly, the controversial Knight was involved in the middle of the storm, this time for a confrontation with an LSU fan, reportedly intoxicated and confrontational with Knight at a Cherry Hill, NJ hotel. The fan ended up deposited in a wastebasket by The General, one of the many bits of Knight folklore that are probably better addressed in one of the countless books chronicling the life and times of the former Indiana coach.

The title game vs. the Tar Heels was the culmination of a great stretch run by that Knight team, which finished with an unremarkable 26-9 SU record, but one that The General himself still believes might, by the end of the season, at least, have been the equal to his undefeated 1975-76 squad. In the outstanding biography Knight, authored by the legendary Bob Hammel, The General offered that opinion to which he and he alone could be considered the ultimate arbiter.

"Don't ever downgrade that (1980-81) team because of its record," The General would say in Knight. "By championship night in Philadelphia, that team had become one of the few in college basketball history that could have stepped onto the court with our 1975 and 1976 teams and competed very well.

"There'd have been a good matchup in the backcourt: Isiah Thomas and Randy Wittman against Quinn Buckner and Bobby Wilkerson. And Ray Tolbert and Landon Turner would have been a good counter to Scott May and Kent Benson. The fifth starter and the bench-no big edge either way. One team lost nine games, the other none. I have to wonder always what I did wrong in 1980-81. The answer quite possibly may be that the '76 team had a much greater focus throughout, and getting that is part of the coach's job."

In that 1980-81 season, the Hoosiers had played North Carolina in December and lost, 65-56, a game in which Isiah Thomas had played so poorly that he was benched by Knight. By the time the Final Four rolled along, however, Indiana was, to borrow the late, great race caller Chic Anderson's description of Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont, moving like a tremendous machine. Indiana "plays five guards--one point and four pulling," one coach had said jokingly earlier in the tournament, a reference to the quicksilver Isiah Thomas and his bludgeoning teammates.

But Isiah Thomas was a different sort of weapon for Knight. In preseason, Knight had retooled his offense and defense to take better advantage of Isiah's unique talents. Thomas did certain things so well and was so much a better player at that stage than the other Hoosiers, save Randy Wittman and Ray Tolbert, that Knight felt it would be wise to install some subtle changes in his intricate motion offense.

"Isiah is our most obvious asset," said Knight early in that 1980-81 season. ""But to capitalize fully on his skills, we have to use him in a different way than we did last season. When we were recruiting Isiah, we told him he wouldn't have the freedom here that he'd have somewhere else. Now that's not true. Within our framework, he'll have more freedom than he would elsewhere. But it's not a freedom to throw the ball away or take bad shots."

With the previous year's stalwart, Mike Woodson, having moved to the NBA, Thomas was asked to do more shooting and scoring. To help him get more shots and points and take greater advantage of his quickness, ball handling and passing, Indiana tried to fast-break more often. And to ensure a maximum number of fast-break opportunities, Knight wanted the Hoosiers to do more trapping than usual on defense in an attempt to create turnovers.

There was another Thomas, Jimmy, on that IU team who would play a valued role, especially on defense. Trailing the Heels by a 16-8 count early in the finale, Knight had inserted Jimmy into the lineup along with Isiah to form an all-Thomas backcourt, with Wittman moving to a wing. Jim Thomas, a defensive stopper, immediately began to fluster one of Carolina's gunners, Al Wood. Meanwhile, Knight's adjustments moved the big, mobile Turner on to Carolina's Sam Perkins, who had scored seven points in the early going.

With the matchups now in order, Knight's team started to crawl back from the early eight-point deficit. Wittman began to shred the Heel zone from the perimeter, his four bombs providing the spark for the Hoosiers to seize the lead by a 27-26 count at the half.

The IU momentum would carry into the second half. Jim Thomas and Turner held the productive Wood and Perkins to a combined five baskets and five rebounds. Meanwhile, explosive Carolina soph F James Worthy was blanked by Ray Tolbert. The second half also witnessed the reawakening of Isiah Thomas, who seemed to be pressing too much in the first half, when he made just 1 of 7 shots. Early in the second half, however, it was a different Isiah, as he stole a pass near midcourt and went in for the layup. Although Perkins got the basket back with an alley-oop drop-in, Isiah was just getting started, feeding Turner for a bucket to put the Hoosiers up 31-28. Next Isiah picked off another pass, this one intended for Perkins down low, and raced in to give Indiana a 33-28 lead. "The way they jumped on us there broke our backs," UNC's Wood admitted later. Two more Isiah baskets and it was 39-30. Isiah from the circle and Wittman, who finished with 16 points, off the glass made it 45-34 at the 12:31 mark. Carolina was on the ropes. Meanwhile, at the other end of the floor, the Tar Heels were faring about as well vs. Knight's defense as the drunken LSU fan a couple of nights earlier against The General in Cherry Hill.

The Hoosiers were breaking down the Heels psychologically and physically in the purest Knight fashion. Even when Carolina's Wood, who finished with 18 points, brought his team back to within seven with eight minutes remaining, all the Hoosiers did was spread out against the Heels' half-court traps and get the ball into Isiah's fast and sure hands. The lead was more than safe as it expanded until the final horn, a thumping 63-50 win and Knight's second national title.

As for The General's comparisons with his first national title winner five years earlier, it should be noted that the 1976 national champ Hoosiers, regarded as the terror of the age, beat their five tournament opponents by a total of 66 points, while Knight's 1981 winners beat their five foes by 113 points, including a dangerous Maryland, swamped 99-64 in the second round at Dayton.

"(There would end up a forever bittersweet taste about the 1980-81 Hoosiers when key F Landon Turner would suffer paralyzing injuries in an auto accident that summer. Turner's basketball star was on the rise and could have turned him into a dominant force on the hardwood. Though, after the accident, Turner would battle admirably and continue to lead a productive life.)

The 1981 title game wasn't the only memorable Indiana-Carolina battle in the decade. Three years later, with Michael Jordan having arrived at Chapel Hill and having helped lead the Heels to the national title in his freshman season of 1981-82, Carolina was at the top of the polls entering the 1984 Dance in Jordan's junior season that would be his last in Carolina blue before he moved to the NBA. The East Regionals were considered a mere stepping stone to the national title for the Heels, who were expected to beat underdog Indiana without much trouble in the Sweet 16 at The Omni in Atlanta.

Instead, it would turn into one of the finest hours of Knight's career. And it would involve an unlikely hero-Dan Dakich, who had started just five times that season but would be handed the unenviable task of tracking the undefendable Jordan in the Sweet 16. (That's the same Dan Dakich who would eventually coach at Bowling Green and would succeed Kelvin Sampson on an interim basis at IU, and is now one of the prominent college hoop analysts for ESPN.)

In Knight, The General recounted his thinking prior to facing Jordan, and his gamble of starting the little-used Dakich.

"There were only two things I thought we could do with Jordan: take away the backcut and keep him off the backboard," said Knight. "Dakich was about 6-foot-5, not very quick but a tough kid. I thought he was the best we had to do both of those things.

"We knew Dakich wasn't going to be able to overplay Michael and keep him from getting the ball. So we underplayed him-backed him off and pretty much gave him the jump shot, which wasn't nearly the weapon then that it became for him. He (Jordan) did two things that just killed you-he was great going to the bucket without the ball, and he was a very, very good offensive rebounder. But not that night.

"We told Dakich in the hotel the night before the game that he was going to guard Jordan. He told the press later his reaction was, 'I went back to my room and threw up.'"

Knight's strategic gamble was that he would try to contain the two Carolina stars, Perkins and Jordan, and let the rest of the Tar Heels beat him from the outside if they could. "They jammed Perkins and Jordan and were willing to pay the price for that," said Heel HC Dean Smith. "We could've taken all the 15-footers we wanted, but they would've been from the people they chose to allow to shoot." Dakich, with no meaningful vertical leap, was instead instructed by Knight to lay off Jordan, thereby cutting off any direct path to the basket. The tactic so confounded Jordan that he became indecisive about when to shoot, and he eventually fouled out after only 26 minutes of playing time. Further, Carolina had to play catch-up nearly the whole game. "One thing that hurt us was that (after the first few minutes) they never had to play from behind," said Perkins. "There was no need for them to play scared."

Tactics or not, the upset never really figured, because that was not a vintage Knight team in 1984. The Hoosiers started a couple of frosh and a sophomore. One of the frosh, however, was G Steve Alford. And while Knight's tactics worked splendidly, Smith did not push the same correct buttons from the Carolina sideline.

"North Carolina did the one thing in that game that they couldn't do: they tried to trap us," said The General in Knight. "Rarely did they trap us successfully in the games that we played against them. Even when they beat us in the 1979-80 and 1980-81 seasons, if they trapped us ten times, we scored nine.

"But in that 1984 game, it wasn't like those two games-we didn't have Isiah Thomas and Randy Wittman, and I think North Carolina underestimated what the kids we did have could do in terms of handling the ball. And we had some breaks. Late in the game Marty Simmons got trapped, the ball was jarred loose, it bounced on the floor three times, and we got a layup."

The Hoosiers built their lead mainly on Alford's nine points midway through the second half, and an Alford layup with 5:36 to play put the Hoosiers up by 12, the largest Tar Heel deficit of the season. Yet Carolina would rally, and by the end IU was hanging on for dear life before Alford broke a 10-0 Heels run and made 6 of 6 free throws in one-and-one situations after Indiana had failed on the front end of four consecutive bonus tries. The Hoosiers didn't even take a shot from the field in the final 5 ½ minutes, but Alford made one big play after another en route to scoring 27 points. As for Jordan, he would end with only 13 points in what would be the last game of his college career, and Knight would have his monster upset, 72-68, shocking the college hoops world.

That was the last hurrah for those 1984 Hoosiers, however, as they would cough up a late lead and get pipped by post-Ralph Sampson Virginia, 50-48, two days later in the East finale, sending the Cavs instead of the Hoosiers to the '84 Final Four, held in Seattle. But that Indiana upset over North Carolina in '84 still resonates in Bloomington, Chapel Hill, and elsewhere in the minds of college hoops aficionados who all know where they were when Dan Dakich became a household name in the sport.

We can only hope they'll be remembering this Friday's Hoosiers-Tar Heels clash 32 years hence as we do that 1984 classic upset!

SWEET SIXTEEN & ELITE EIGHT ON DECK!

After underdogs fared extremely well in Sweet 16 action during the Big Dances of 2013 and 2014, covering six of eight chances each season, the tables completely reversed a year ago, with favorites prevailing in six of eight in 2015.

Elite Eight underdogs, which had covered 5 of 8 chances over the 2013-14 span, split four chances with the favorites last season, though the dogs still stand 40-28 in this round since '98.

Conference-wise, the stickout performer is the Big 10 in the Elite Eight, standing 16-7 vs. the line since '98, including 2-0 last season (wins and covers by Wisconsin and Michigan State).

Following are Against the Spread breakdowns in Sweet 16 and Elite Eight action since 1998, with 2015 Sweet 16, and 2013-15 Elite Eight performance noted as well.

Sweet Sixteen Favorites
ATS Category 1998-2015 2013-2015
1-3 points 21-20 2-1
3 ½ - 6 ½ points 21-27 2-0
7 - 9 ½ points 17-13 1-0
10 or more 7-12 1-1
Total 66-72 6-2


Sweet 16 ATS Records
Conference 1998-2015 2013-2015
American 1-1 1-1
ACC 19-19-1 3-2
Atlantic Sun 1-0 1-0
Atlantic-10 12-9-2 1-1
Big East 17-26 0-1
Big Ten 22-21 2-0
Big 12 1 17-17 0-2
CAA 2-0 1-0
C-USA 5-3 0-0
Horizon 3-2 1-0
MAC 2-1 1-0
Mid-Continent 1-0 0-0
MVC 2-5 0-1
Mountain West 1-3 1-0
Pac-12 13-20 1-2
SEC 20-12 1-0
SoCon 1-0 0-0
Sun Belt 1-0 0-0
WAC 2-1 0-0
West Coast 3-4 1-0


Elite Eight Favorites
ATS Category 1998-2015 2013-2015
1-3 points 10-16 3-2
3 ½ - 6 ½ points 13-14 2-3
7 - 9 ½ points 4-6 0-0
10 or more 1-4 0-2
Overall 28-40 5-7


Elite Eight ATS Records
Conference 1998-2015 2013-2015
American 1-0 1-0
ACC 10-10 2-2
Atlantic-10 4-2 1-0
Big East 11-11 2-1
Big Ten 16-7 4-3
Big 12 5-16 0-0
CAA 2-0 0-0
C-USA 2-3 0-0
Horizon 2-0 0-0
Pac-12 7-8 0-2
SEC 10-8 1-3
SoCon 1-0 0-0
WAC 1-1 0-0
West Coast 1-1 0-1
 
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Sweet 16 Stats & Angles
By ASA


Thursday, Mar. 24

No. 3 Miami, Fl. vs. No. 2 Villanova (CBS, 7:10 p.m. ET)

-- Villanova had the highest combined margin of victory of any team in the field in the first 2 rounds at +49 points (vs Iowa & UNC Asheville)

-- Nova had 8 players average double digit minutes in first 2 rounds with nobody topping 31 minutes in either game

-- Miami is 129-89 ATS as an underdog since 1997

-- 22% of Miami’s points this year have come from the FT line which is the highest percentage remaining the in field – the Canes shoot 75% from the line

No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Oklahoma (TBS, 7:37 p.m. ET)

-- Oklahoma relies on the 3-pointer more than any other team remaining with 38.6% of their points this year coming from deep

-- Texas A&M starts 4 seniors however NOBODY on their team had ever played in an NCAA tourney game before this season

-- The Sooners have the 2nd highest 3-point % in College BB this season at 42.5%

-- Oklahoma has played in 6 NCAA tournament games the last 3 seasons covering the spread just once

-- OU coach Lon Kruger has coached in 5 Sweet 16’s. This will be A&M coach Billy Kennedy’s first.

No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 1 Kansas (CBS, 9:40 p.m. ET)

-- Over the last 12 games, Maryland guard Melo Trimble has made only 32% of his shots and just 26% from beyond the arc

-- Kansas is 21-10 ATS as a favorite this season

-- The Jayhawks have won 24 of their last 28 games (straight up) when facing a team with a winning record

-- KU coach Bill Self has an NCAA tourney record of 39-16 (70%). Maryland coach Mark Turgeon is just 8-6 lifetime in the Big Dance

No. 4 Duke vs. No. 1 Oregon (TBS, 9:57 p.m. ET)

-- Duke turns the ball over less than any team remaining at just 14% - 5th nationally

-- The Ducks have 7 players averaging 21+ minutes this season

-- Duke’s coach Krzyzewski is an amazing 90-26 (77%) in the NCAA tournament which is the most wins for any coach AND the highest win percentage for those who have coached at least 10 games in the Big Dance

-- Oregon’s Dana Altman is 8-11 (42%) in NCAA tournament games

-- The Total has gone UNDER every time Duke has been tabbed an underdog this year (6 UNDERS, 0 OVERS)

Friday, Mar. 25

No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Virginia (CBS, 7:10 p.m. ET)

-- Iowa State is the top team remaining in offensive efficiency ranking 2nd nationally

-- Iowa State is DEAD LAST (351st) in the country at getting to the stripe with only 13.8% of their points coming from the FT line

-- However, the Cyclones are 2nd nationally on the flip side of that as only 14% of their opponents points come from the FT line

-- Iowa State is the worst offensive rebounding team remaining – 269th nationally. The rebound just 26% of their own misses

-- Virginia is top team remaining in defensive efficiency ranking 4th nationally

-- Virginia scores only 25% of their points from beyond the arc which is the lowest percentage remaining

No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (TBS, 7:37 p.m. ET)

-- Notre Dame & Wisconsin are two of the worst teams nationally at defending the 3 ranking 302nd and 313th respectively

-- The Badgers have won 11 of their last 13 NCAA tournament games

-- The Irish were 7-7 this season vs teams that made the NCAA tournament – that includes their 2-0 mark so far

-- Wisconsin was 11-6 this season vs teams that made the Big Dance – that also includes their 2-0 mark thus far

-- These two teams play among the slowest tempos in college hoops – Notre Dame’s adjusted tempo is 321st and Wisconsin’s is 345th

No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 North Carolina (TBS, 9:57 p.m. ET)

-- Indiana uses their bench more than any other team remaining – 51st nationally in bench minutes

-- Indiana turns the ball over more than any team remaining at nearly 20% - 273rd nationally

-- UNC is the top offensive rebounding team left in the tourney – 4th nationally. The Heels rebound 40% of their own misses

-- The Hoosiers are the best shooting team in the nation with an eFG% of 59% - they are in the top 5 nationally in both 3 point FG% and 2 point FG%

-- UNC coach Roy Williams has an NCAA tourney record of 67-23 (74%) which ranks him 4th all time (winning % wise)

No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Syracuse (CBS, 9:40 p.m. ET)

-- Syracuse uses their bench less than any other team remaining – 350th nationally in bench minutes

-- Gonzaga comes into the Sweet 16 as the lowest remaining seed (11 seed). Since 1979, just three 11 seeds
have gone onto make the Final 4

-- The Zags are 8th nationally at defending the 3 allowing just 30% from beyond the arc

-- Syracuse is the first 10 seed to reach the Sweet 16 since Steph Curry’s Davidson team back in 2008. Since expanding to 64 teams in 1985, no 10 seed has ever made the Final 4

-- The Orange are the only team remaining that plays almost exclusively zone defense
 
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Most Outstanding Player Props

The NCAA Tournament continues Thursday with 16 schools squaring off in Regional action.

Along with betting on sides and totals, Sportsbooks have posted a prop wager on which player will win the Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA Tournament.

The MOP is often considered the Most Valuable Player of the tournament and usually goes to a player on the school that wins the championship.

The last player to capture the award and not be on the championship team was Houston’s Hakeem Olajuwon in 1983 when the Cougars were upset 54-52 to North Carolina State in the final on a buzzer beater.

This year’s field is wide open but the majority of the top betting choices reside on either No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, with Kansas and North Carolina both receiving extra attention.

Outlier bets would include Duke’s Grayson Allen (20/1) and Brandon Ingram (25/1), plus point guard Melo Trimble (25/1) from Maryland is getting some notice.


Odds to win 2016 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player

Brice Johnson (North Carolina) 11/2
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma) 6/1
Perry Ellis (Kansas) 13/2
Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia) 7/1
Marcus Paige (North Carolina) 12/1
Josh Hart (Villanova) 15/1
Wayne Selden Jr (Kansas) 15/1
Dillon Brooks (Oregon) 18/1
Frank Mason III (Kansas) 20/1
Grayson Allen (Duke) 20/1
Brandon Ingram (Duke) 25/1
Melo Trimble (Maryland) 25/1
Georges Niang (Iowa St) 30/1
Joel Berry II (North Carolina) 30/1
Yogi Ferrell (Indiana) 30/1
Kyle Wiltjer (Gonzaga) 35/1
Elgin Cook (Oregon) 40/1
Zach Auguste (Notre Dame) 40/1
Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga) 45/1
Jalen Jones (Texas A&M) 45/1
Sheldon McClellan (Miami FL) 45/1
Anthony Gill (Virginia) 50/1
Danuel House (Texas A&M) 50/1
Isaiah Cousins (Oklahoma) 50/1
Michael Gbinije (Syracuse) 50/1
Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin) 50/1
Ryan Arcidiacono (Villanova) 50/1

Odds Subject to Change
 
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Sweet 16 - South Region
By Brian Edwards

**Miami vs. Villanova**

-- The South Region semifinals will take place in Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center. The lid-lifter on Thursday will pit second-seeded Villanova (31-5 straight up, 17-17 against the spread) against third-seeded Miami. The winner will move on to face the Kansas-Maryland survivor on Saturday.

-- The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Villanova as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5 points. As of early Wednesday afternoon, the Wildcats were favored by four with the total down to 140. Jay Wright’s team is a two-point ‘chalk’ for first-half wagers, while the Hurricanes are +165 on the money line (for the game, that is).

-- Villanova is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009, finally advancing past the first weekend by destroying Iowa 87-68 this past Sunday afternoon in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. ‘Nova raced out to a 54-29 halftime lead and was up by as many as 34, easily taking the cash as a six-point favorite. Josh Hart scored a team-high 19 points, while Ryan Acridiacono added 16 points and four assists without committing a turnover. Kris Jenkins finished with 15 points and six assists without a turnover.

-- Villanova sent UNC Asheville packing quickly in Friday’s meeting at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn. Wright’s team rolled to an 86-56 win as a 17.5-point favorite. Daniel Ochefu was the catalyst with 17 points, 10 rebounds, three blocked shots, one steal and four assists without a turnover. Arcidiacono finished with 14 points and four assists, draining 4-of-6 launches from downtown.

-- Arcidiacono is the type of senior point guard every coach craves in the NCAA Tournament. In Villanova’s last 11 games, he has an incredible 61/9 assists-to-turnovers ratio. For the season. Arcidiacono averages 12.0 points, 4.4 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. He has made 37.5 percent of his attempts from 3-range and is burying free throws at an 82.3 percent clip.

-- Villanova has posted a 6-6 spread record in 12 games as a single-digit favorite this year.

-- Miami (27-7 SU, 19-13 ATS) bounced Wichita State from the Round of 32 by capturing a 65-57 win over Wichita State as a two-point underdog. Angel Rodriguez led the winners with 28 points, five assists and four steals, while Sheldon McClellan finished with 18 points. UM shot at a 55.3 percent clip from the field and buried 58.3 percent from 3-point territory. The Hurricanes’ defense limited Wichita State stars Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet to 12 points apiece, as both finished their terrific collegiate careers with 4-of-12 shooting performances from the field.

-- Miami failed to cover the number in a 79-72 win over Buffalo on Thursday in its first NCAA Tournament game. The Bulls took the money as 14-point underdogs. Rodriguez led the Hurricanes into the win column by tallying 24 points, seven rebounds, four assists, three steals and one blocked shot. McClellan added 20 points.

-- Miami has played in the underdog role six times this year, posting a 3-3 record both SU and ATS.

-- The ‘over’ is on a 9-2 run for the Wildcats, who have watched the ‘over’ go 18-16-1 overall.

-- The ‘under’ is 17-16 overall for the ‘Canes, but they have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their last four outings.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Maryland vs. Kansas**

-- The Westgate opened No. seed Kansas (32-4 SU, 20-11 ATS) as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 146. As of Wednesday afternoon, the number for the side had yet to budge, but the tally was down to 143.5 points. KU is a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ for first-half bets, while the Terrapins are +260 on the money line for the game (risk $100 to win $260).

-- Bill Self’s team advanced past No. 16 seed Austin Peay by capturing a 105-79 win as a 24.5-point favorite. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk paced KU with 23 points after banging home 4-of-5 launches from 3-point land. Perry Ellis added 21 points for the Jayhawks.

-- Kansas raced out to a 44-24 lead over UConn in the Round of 32. The Huskies did mount a nice run, however, slicing the deficit to 50-41 with 9:33 remaining. But they would get no closer as 8.5-point underdogs. Wayne Selden Jr. was the catalyst with 22 points, seven rebounds and three assists. Ellis added 21 points and eight boards, hitting 9-of-12 shots from the field. Devonte’ Graham was also in double figures with 13 points.

-- KU has thrived as a single-digit favorite this season, posting an 11-5 ATS record. The Jayhawks have been even bigger money makers in such spots recently, going 7-1 versus the number in their last eight outings as single-digit ‘chalk.’ The only non-cover came against Baylor at the Big 12 Tournament, where the Bears turned a 16-point deficit in the final two minutes into a backdoor cover as seven-point underdogs.

-- Ellis averages a team-high 16.9 PPG and pulls down 5.9 rebounds per contest. Selden scores at a 13.6 PPG clip, Frank Mason (12.8 PPG) has a 167/68 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Graham (11.4 PPG) has a team-high 52 steals and has handed out 137 helpers.

-- Maryland (27-8 SU, 16-17 ATS) advanced to the Sweet 16 by eliminating No. 13 seed Hawaii 73-60 as a 7.5-point favorite in the Round of 32. Mark Turgeon’s team dodged a matchup with fourth-seeded Cal after it lost to the Warriors in part due to the absence of All Pac-12 guard Tyrone Wallace.

-- Melo Trimble led the way against Hawaii with 24 points and eight rebounds. Rasheed Sulaimon added 14 points, five rebounds and three assists, while Diamond Stone contributed 14 points. Jake Layman finished with 10 points and six boards.

-- In the Round of 64, No. 5 seed Maryland got all it wanted from South Dakota St. in a 79-74 triumph as a nine-point ‘chalk.’ Layman erupted for 27 points on 5-of-8 shooting from 3-point range. Trimble finished with 19 points before fouling out.

-- Maryland has been an underdog five times this season, limping to a 1-3-1 spread record with zero outright victories.

-- Trimble averages team-highs in scoring (14.8 PPG), assists (4.9 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG). Stone (12.7 PPG), the freshman center who was five-star recruit, leads the Terps in field-goal percentage (56.9%) and blocked shots (1.6 BPG). Robert Carter, a transfer from Ga. Tech, averages 12.4 points and 7.0 rebounds per game.

-- The ‘under’ is 20-13-1 overall for the Terps.

-- The ‘under’ is 20-12-1 overall for KU, but the ‘over’ is 4-2-1 in its last seven outings.
 
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Sweet 16 - West Region
By Brian Edwards

**Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma**

-- All four of the top seeds in the West Region are still alive. These four schools will rendezvous Thursday at Honda Center in Anaheim. In the lid-lifter, second-seeded Oklahoma (27-7 straight up, 12-20 against the spread) will take on Texas A&M in a battle of former Big 12 adversaries. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

-- The Westgate SuperBook opened Oklahoma as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 145 points. As of Wednesday morning, the betting shop was had OU favored by two with a total of 146. The Aggies were +115 on the money line (risk $100 to win $115). For first-half wagers, the Sooners were one-point ‘chalk.’

-- Lon Kruger’s team is mired in an atrocious ATS slump, failing to cover in seven straight games and 11 of its last 13.

-- OU advanced to the West Region semifinals with wins over Cal-State Bakersfield (82-68) and VCU (85-81) on Friday and Sunday, respectively. Buddy Hield dropped a game-high 27 points on the Roadrunners, but his team just barely failed to cover the spread as a 14.5-point ‘chalk.’ Isaiah Cousins added 16 points and five assists, while Jordan Woodard finished with 15 points on 5-of-8 shooting from the field, including 3-of-5 from 3-point range.

-- VCU’s program is in good shape moving forward with Will Wade, who replaced Shaka Smart following his exit to Texas. The Rams gave OU fits for 40 minutes, even surging into the lead with less than seven minutes remaining after trailing by 13 at intermission. But Hield’s triple with 6:37 left gave the Sooners a 69-67 lead that they wouldn’t let get away. Nevertheless, VCU took the cash as a 6.5-point underdog in the 85-81 setback. Hield scored 29 of his 36 points in the second half. Woodard finished with 17 points, four rebounds, two steals and four assists compared to merely one turnover. Cousins hit 6-of-13 shots from the field in a 15-point effort.

-- Kruger owns an 18-16 career record (52.9%) in the NCAA Tournament with one trip to the Final Four. He took third-seeded Florida led by Dan Cross and Craig Brown to the 1994 national semifinals. I was there in Charlotte and UF led the Blue Devils by 11 midway through the second half after Andrew DeClercq banked home a 15-foot jumper from inside the top of the key. However, Grant Hill took over down the stretch and led Duke to a slim victory sealed by a shaky charging call whistled against Cross when the Gators were down by three in the final 10 seconds. Arkansas and Nolan Richardson would beat Duke on Scotty Thurman’s late 3-ball two nights later.

-- Kruger has taken five different schools to the Sweet 16 – Kansas State, Florida, Illinois, UNLV and Oklahoma.

-- Texas A&M (28-8 SU, 16-13-2 ATS) still has a pulse thanks to the biggest last-minute comeback in NCAA Tournament history in Sunday’s epic double-overtime win over No. Iowa by a 92-88 count as a seven-point ‘chalk.’ The Aggies’ star Danuel House didn’t score his first bucket of the game until 25.1 seconds were left in regulation. Texas A&M trailed by 12 with 44 seconds left, but it would force four turnovers and hit six straight shots, including a crucial trey by House and a 3-point play the hard way by Alex Caruso, who was given the and-one whistle even though it appeared the defender Paul Jesperson didn’t even touch him. When NIU’s Wes Washpun fouled out with 3:41 left in the first OT on another shaky call, House was able to get to work after Washpun had locked him up all day. Jesperson had a made a halfcourt shot at the buzzer to beat Texas two nights before, and he had a similar opportunity at the end of the first extra session. However, even though he had about four seconds left and could’ve dribbled or even passed into the frontcourt, Jesperson launched another half-court heave that wasn’t even close this time around. In the second OT, House and the Aggies took over. In fact, they could’ve pushed or even covered with better free-throw shooting in double OT, but that would’ve give NIU backers the worst bad beat of all-time. Caruso finished with 25 points and nine rebounds, while House somehow managed to score 22 and pull down eight boards.

-- Texas A&M smashed Wisconsin-Green Bay 92-65 as a 13-point favorite in the Round of 64. House made 8-of-12 shots, including 2-of-3 from long distance, en route to scoring a team-high 20 points. Tonny Trocha-Morelos added 15 points, six rebounds and four assists without any turnovers, while Tyler Davis scored 12 points and pulled down seven boards.

-- Billy Kennedy now owns a 3-2 career record (66.7%) in the NCAA Tournament.

-- Texas A&M has been an underdog five times this season, producing a 2-3 record both SU and ATS. The Aggies won at home against Kentucky and beat Gonzaga in the Bahamas as underdogs. They took a bad beat to UK in the SEC Tournament finals, losing by five in overtime as four-point ‘dogs.

-- In 11 games against teams that made the NCAA’s 68-team field, the Aggies are 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS.

-- The ‘under’ had cashed in 10 consecutive games for Oklahoma, but the ‘over’ hit in both of its games in Oklahoma City last weekend. The ‘under’ is 17-15 overall for OU.

-- The ‘under’ is 17-14 overall for the Aggies, but they have seen the ‘over’ hit in three consecutive games and five of their last six.

**Duke vs. Oregon**

-- The second West Region semifinal will start 30 minutes after OU-A&M concludes, which should be at about 10:05 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

-- The Westgate opened top-seeded Oregon (30-6 SU, 20-13 ATS) as a two-point favorite with a total of 156.5. As of Wednesday morning, the Ducks were favored by three and the total was up to 157. Gamblers can take the Blue Devils to win outright for a +135 return (risk $100 to win $135). Oregon is a 1.5-point ‘chalk’ for first-half bets.

-- Oregon advanced to the Sweet 16 with wins over Holy Cross and St. Joseph’s. Dana Altman’s squad smashed the Crusaders by a 91-52 count as a 22.5-point favorite. The 143 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 133.5-point total. Chris Boucher led the way with a team-best 20 points. Elgin Cook added 11 points, 13 rebounds and four assists.

-- In Sunday’s Round-of-32 showdown vs. St. Joseph’s, Oregon captured a 69-64 win as a seven-point ‘chalk.’ Clinging to a three-point lead in the final seconds, Tyler Dorsey came up with a loose ball after St. Joe’s star DeAndre’ Bembry lost control of his dribble. Dorsey, who had hit a trey to give the Ducks a 61-60 advantage with 1:57 left, went to the line and put the game away with a pair of free throws. Dillon Brooks led the winners with a game-high 25 points, draining 4-of-7 attempts from behind the 3-point arc. Cook contributed 18 points, four rebounds and four assists, while Dorsey finished with 14 points and seven boards.

-- The win over St. Joe’s gave Oregon its first 30-win season in school history.

-- Oregon has won 10 in a row and hasn’t tasted defeat since a Feb. 13 loss at Stanford. The Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests.

-- Oregon has been a single-digit favorite 18 times, compiling a 10-8 spread record.

-- Duke (25-10 SU, 14-18-2 ATS) nearly blew a 27-point lead over Yale in last Saturday’s Round of 32 matchup. The Bulldogs trimmed the deficit down to three at crunch time, but the Blue Devils coupled a few stops and 4-of-5 free-throw shooting in the last 33 seconds to pull out a 71-64 win. The makes at the stripe allowed Duke backers to cash a sketchy ticket laying six points. The spread cover for Mike Krzyzewski’s team halted a 0-6 ATS slump.

-- Duke sophomore star Grayson Allen scored 22 of his game-high 29 points in the first half. Brandon Ingram added 25 points against the Bulldogs, who were in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1962.

-- Duke got all it wanted from Yale and UNC-Wilmington put up a great fight on Thursday afternoon, too. The Blue Devils won a 93-85 decision despite trailing by three at halftime. They failed to cover as 10-point favorites. Allen was the catalyst with 23 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. Marshall Plumlee finished with 23 points, eight boards and three blocked shots, while Ingram tallied 20 points, nine boards and a pair of rejections.

-- Duke has been an underdog six times this year, limping to a 1-4-1 spread with one outright win (at North Carolina).

-- Altman owns an 8-11 career record (42.1%) in the NCAA Tournament. On the flip side, Krzyzewski is 90-26 (77.6%) with 12 trips to the Final Four and five national titles to his credit.

-- These schools haven’t met since Nov. 27 of 2010 in Portland, where Duke coasted to a 98-71 win as a 20-point favorite. Kyle Singler dropped 30 points on the Ducks in his return to his home state.

-- The ‘under’ is 18-15 overall for the Ducks.

-- The ‘under’ is 19-15 overall for Duke, cashing at a 9-3 clip in its last 12 games.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas *************** reported several days ago that the Westgate has banned cigarette smoking from the sports book. Thank the heavens!! Now if every other shop in Vegas would so the same, I would be elated. The worst thing about Las Vegas – by far!!! – is the fact that people (most of them, it seems) smoke cigarettes 24/7 inside.

-- Youmans, who writes a betting blog and has been UNLV’s basketball beat writer for a decade, tells me Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin is not going to UNLV. That was my guess, as I figured he was using the possibility of joining the Runnin’ Rebels to leverage a raise from UC, his alma mater. Gary Parrish of CBS Sports reported that Cronin is “looking to move,” however. He currently makes $2.2 million annually with the Bearcats. A different potential destination could be Pittsburgh.

-- Brad Underwood is the new head coach at Oklahoma State. Underwood, a Kansas State alum, took Stephen F. Austin to three consecutive NCAA Tournaments while compiling an 89-14 record in three years. The Lumberjacks took it to third-seeded West Virginia in an easy win Friday night. Then they lost a heartbreaker to Notre Dame on a late tip-in with 1.4 seconds remaining. The Cowboys won just one NCAA Tournament game during Travis Ford’s eight-year tenure.

-- The level of coaching in the Big 12 went up a bunch Monday. In an absolute coup, TCU brought home former player Jamie Dixon by plucking him away from Pittsburgh. The hire is a home run for the Horned Frogs, but the rebuild job for Dixon is a monumental task. TCU hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1998 and hasn’t won an NCAA game since 1987.

-- Former Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins has landed a new gig at UCF, replacing former Billy Donovan assistant Donnie Jones. Stanford fired Dawkins after eight seasons last week.

-- North Carolina has covered the number in six straight games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’ The Tar Heels are favored by 5.5 vs. Indiana on Friday night.
 
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NCAA Tournament

Thursday's games

Under Bill Self, Kansas is 5-2 in regional semifinals, 3-4 vs spread (they were favored in all 7); Jayhawks won last 16 games overall, they lost by 6 to Michigan St on neutral floor in November, their only Big 14 game this year. Maryland beat #12-13 seeds last week, after a 3-5 skid coming into NCAAs; Terps are 13-1 outside Big 14, with loss at North Carolina by 8. Big X teams are 5-2 vs Big 14 teams this year, 2-2 vs spread when favored. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 16-19 vs spread in this round. Terps are #46 defending arc; Kansas is shooting 41.9% on arc (#4).

ACC teams are 12-1 in NCAAs (Pitt only loss); Miami beat Butler by 10 in its only Big East game. Villanova is in Sweet 16 for first time since '09; they beat Ga Tech, lost to Virginia in its two ACC games. Wildcats cruised in both games LW, leading Iowa by 25 at the half Sunday. Miami is 14-4 in its last 18 games; Villanova is 14-2 in its last 16. ACC teams are 6-5 vs Big East teams this year; favorites are 8-3 vs spread in the 11 games. Since '05, when 2-3 seeds meet in regional semis, underdog is 8-6 vs spread. Hurricanes are #32 in experience, Villanova is #182.

This is third time in 20 years Duke is lower-seeded team; they lost by 4 to Kansas is '03 regional semi, by 22 to Louisville in 2013 regional final. Over last 30 years, Duke is 7-3 vs spread as a dog- they're 4-6 in its last ten regional semifinal games. Bue Devils led Yale by 27, had it cut to 3 in last game. Oregon won its last ten games, allowing 57.7 ppg in last three. Ducks scored 76+ points in nine of last ten games. ACC teams are 4-2 vs Pac-12 teams this year, but were favored in five of six games. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 16-19 against the spread in this round.

Texas A&M came back from dead Sunday, rallying from 12 down with 0:35 left. Aggies are 3-0 vs Big X teams this year, beating Texas, Baylor, K-State; they're 10-1 in last 11 games overall. A&M starts three seniors; House is NBA-level talent with ball. Oklahoma is 13-0 outside the Big X this year; Sooners start three seniors, have four kids who've started 100+ games together. Oklahoma beat A&M 64-52 in last meeting, two years ago. Big X teams are 12-7 vs SEC teams this year, 6-4 vs spread when favored. Since '05, when 2-3 seeds meet in regional semis, dogs are 8-6.


Friday's games

Since 1997, North Carolina is 9-1 in Sweet 16; they lost to Wisconsin in this round LY. Tar Heels are 2-0 vs Big 14 this year, beating N'western by 11, Maryland by 8. UNC scored 84 ppg LW in easy wins; they've won seven in a row overall. Indiana won 22 of last 26 games; they're 1-2 vs ACC teams, losing to Wake/Duke in fall, then beat Notre Dame by 7 in December. Hoosiers shoot 41.6% on the arc (#5); Carolina foes are shooting 35.4% (#223 defense). ACC teams are 8-11 vs Big 14 teams this season, 5-6 vs spread when favored. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 16-19 vs spread in regional semifinal round. Battle of senior point guards should be extremely interesting.

Wisconsin allowed 53 ppg in winning twice LW; Badgers won at Syracuse, beat Pitt by 4 in only two ACC games. Notre Dame won four of last five games, sneaking by SF Austin Sunday. Irish subs play 9th-least minutes in country; PG Jackson was on bench for 2:00 LW. ND is 3-1 vs Big 14 this year, losing to Indiana, winning by 7-6-5 points vs Michigan-Illinois-Iowa. Expect a slow tempo; Notre Dame plays tempo #321, Wisconsin #345. Badgers are 13-3 in last 16 games after a 9-9 start; they don't have a senior in rotation. ACC teams are 8-11 vs Big 14 teams this season, 3-3 vs spread when a dog. This is first regional semi with 6-7 seeds playing since 2005.

Virginia won seven of last eight games, with only loss to UNC; Cavs beat West Va in only Big X game. UVa plays slowest tempo in nation. Iowa State plays #56 tempo, is #4 expereince team, but Cyclones' bench plays 5th-least minutes in country. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 16-19 vs spread in regional semifinal round. ACC teams are 2-3 vs Big X teams this year, 1-3 vs spread when favored. Iowa State scored 172 points on 141 possessions LW; this game will be mich slower than 70 possessions. Cyclones beat Va Tech by 22 in only ACC game- they've got #5 eFG% in country, shooting 56.6% inside arc (#4), 38.6% outside arc (#22). .

Gonzaga is 7-0 since losing on Senior Night to St Mary's; they've got two quality big men, shoot ball well (#12 eFG%) and allowed only 55.5 ppg LW in beating seeds #6-3 in their region (Seton Hall/Utah). Zags are 4-5 vs top 50 teams this year. Syracuse got two wins last week after going 1-5 in previous six games; Orange avoided Michigan St in second round, which always helps. Syracuse is one of 20 worst teams in country on defensive boards, but otherwise defend well- their bench plays 2nd-least minutes in country. WCC won both its games vs ACC teams this season. This game is only third 10-11 seed game ever; underdogs won first two.


Other Tournaments

We'll do what we can with these minor tournaments; impossible to determine how interested players on these teams will be........


NIT
None


CBI
None


CIT

Tex-Arlington is 10-2 outside Sun Belt (#236 non-conf sked); Mavericks won six of last seven games overall, are 4-1 in last five true away games, and they've played most of year without best player Hervey, who blew out his knee in mid-January. NJIT won five of last six at home, losing to Stetson in A-Sun tourney; they're #75 experience team but are 0-4 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 30-7-22-18 points. Arlington does not have a senior starter- they could be an NCAA sleeper next year.
 
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'Sweet-Sixteen'

The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday with the final game of the night being one of the more intriguing matchups. The No. 1 Oregon Ducks survived the weekend and will take on the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils, who powered through the first two rounds in the West.

The Blue Devils (25-10) held off No. 13 UNC-Wilmington 93-85 in the first round and then battled for a 71-64 win over No. 12 Yale. Grayson Allen has stepped up his game, posting 23 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in the first game, and then 29 points on 10-of-15 shooting in the second.

The Ducks (30-6) rolled through No. 16 Holy Cross by a score of 91-52 in the first round, which allowed them to rest their starters. They needed all the help they could get against No. 8 Saint Joseph's as the Ducks beat them 69-64 despite being down for most of the game. Chris Boucher led the way with 20 points in the Holy Cross rout, while Dillon Brooks poured in 25 to help Oregon move on past Saint Joseph's.

These programs have met just once with the Blue Devils thrashing the Ducks 98-71 in Portland, Oregon back in November 2010.
 
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CBB Betting: March Madness: Sweet-Sixteen

The ACC has owned the NCAA Tournament thus far. The league has compiled an impressive 12-1 (7-5-1 ATS) record over the first weekend with the lone blemish being Pittsburgh which fell to Wisconsin.

With that, the ACC sends six teams to the Sweet Sixteen. Thursday it's Miami (#3) facing Villavona (#2) and Duke (#4) goes up against Oregon (#1). Then on Friday, North Carolina (#1) takes ont Indiana (#5), then Notre Dame (#6) gets Wisconsin (#7), Syracuse (#10) matches up with Gonzaga (#11) and Virginia (#1) battles Iowa State (#4).

The following are some betting nuggets for the ACC teams along with Seed pairings which hopefully helps when making your selections.

#1 Virginia (28-7, 18-14-1 ATS) vs #4 Iowa State (23-11, 17-13-1 ATS)

-Virginia 5-5 ATS L10 in Tourney, 3-1 ATS as #1 Seed
-Iowa State 8-4 ATS L12 Dancing, 0-1 ATS in S16

- #1 vs #4 in this round 8-11 ATS, 1-3 ATS as chalk of 3.5 or less, 2-4 ATS faves of 4 to 6.5

#1 North Carolina (30-6, 17-18-1 ATS) vs #5 Indiana (27-7, 19-15 ATS)
- UNC 20-15 ATS L35 NCAA Tourney Games, 13-4 ATS L17 as #1 Seed, 3-2 ATS in Sweet-16
- Indiana 8-8-1 ATS L17 in NCAA Tourney, 0-2 ATS in Sweet-16

- #1 vs #5 in SW-16 7-8-1 ATS, 3-4-1 ATS laying 4 to 6.5, 4-4 ATS laying 7 or more

#3 Miami (27-7, 19-13-1 ATS) vs #2 Villavona (31-5, 17-17-1 ATS)

- Miami 4-3 ATS in NCAA Tourney, 0-1 ATS S16
- Villanova 12-14 ATS L26 in NCAA Tourney, 3-3 ATS L6 as #2 Seed, 0-1 ATS S16

- #2 vs #3 in Sweet-16 are 9-8 ATS, 8-4 ATS as faves of -3.5 or less, 0-3 ATS laying -4 to -6.5 points

#4 Duke (25-10, 14-18-2 ATS) vs #1-Seed Oregon (30-6, 20-13 ATS)
- Duke 15-9 ATS stretch in Big Dance action, 4-5 ATS in S16
- Oregon 7-3 ATS in NCAA Tourney since 2013, 9-5 ATS since 2007 including 2-0 ATS S16

- see Virginia vs Iowa State

#6 Notre Dame (23-11, 15-16-1 ATS) vs #7 Wisconsin (22-12, 18-16 ATS)
- Notre Dame 3-8 ATS in NCAA Tounament games since 2010, 0-2 in S16 since 2003
- Wisky 13-5 L18 Dancing, 5-2 ATS L7 in S16

- #6 Seed are 6-6-1 ATS this round, 0-2 SU/ATS facing a #7 Seed

#10 Syracuse (21-13, 18-15 ATS) vs #11 Gonzaga (28-7, 17-15-1 ATS)
- Syracuse 7-6 ATS L13 NCAA Tourney Games, 1-5 ATS L6 in Sweet-16
- Gonzaga 13-16 ATS since 2003, 3-1 ATS as #11, 1-1 ATS in S16

- #10 Seed 3-5 ATS S16 including 0-2 SU/ATS vs #11 Seed

Other trends of note:

Favorites in the Sweet Sixteen are 44-47-3 ATS since 2002-3.
Favorites of -3.5 or less are a vig losing 13-13-1 ATS
Chalk of -4.5 to -6.5 are 14-20-2 ATS
Faves of -7 to -9.5 are 12-7 ATS
Double Digit Chalks 5-7 ATS
 
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Woodbine Harness: Thursday 3/24 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,7/4,7/6,7,8/1,8/1,5,7,9,10 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 1,8/1,5,7,9,10/6,7,8/1,4 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 1,4/7/3,6/1,4,6 = $12

MEET STATS: 308 - 978 / $1607.10 BEST BETS: 50 - 92 / $181.10

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 91 / $218.80

Best Bet: CASIMIR LOW GEAR (8th)

Spot Play: LOVE U FOREVER (2nd)


Race 1

(7) CLASSIC COMEDY makes her third start for Auciello and second try over Woodbine. I can see Drury blasting with this one early here and give her a lukewarm call. (1) JINGLEWRITER looked like she was coming around a bit in claimers then stepped into a conditioned race where she had no shot. This field is much weaker and she should contend. (2) SANTANNAS GAL has finished 2nd the past two times in this class and merits respect vs. a suspect group.

Race 2

(7) LOVE U FOREVER drops back into a claimer and could be sent right down the road here in a race void of early speed. (4) CROWNINGCREST also drops back into a conditioned claimer and should show more in this small field. (5) GO GET BRUCE was racing great in conditioned claimers at Flamboro before trying tougher here. He can share here.

Race 3

(6) CATCH TWENTY TWO set a wicked pace last time then tired late. He could take this group with an easier trip, which is likely. (8) TO HIS CREDIT is a half to two solid racehorses that have won 17 races between them. He likely has a lot more speed to offer than was shown in his qualifier. (7) SPORTS COLOGNE has raced better for Filion and he returns here. Don't be shocked if he is lurking in the pocket turning home.

Race 4

(1) ORCH VICKY has taken two straight at big odds and stepping up into a non-winners of two she will likely be a square price again. She's worth a play here in her current sharp form. (8) PARTY IN ROME looks like the one to beat, but failed at 1/5 last time and has now missed three weeks. She's no cinch here. (5) MY RHYTHM OF RHYME showed nothing last week, but perhaps getting back to a 7-day rotation she will show more early speed early here and take a share.

Race 5

(5) DERIVATIVE put up some big fractions on the lead last week then was passed late by two that would rate highly in this field. A similar speed mission might work here. (7) BOONDOCK has been racing very well in 3 starts at London this year and his good form should be respected. (1) THE BIG MUSCLE was a strong winner in his seasonal debut. A repeat isn't out of the question, but he will likely need to trot much faster early to keep up with the choice if that one stays flat.

Race 6

(8) ROCKNROLL VISION was a decent 2nd in her seasonal bow, which was her best performance to date. She looks much-improved over last season; slight nod. (7) PONDER THE DREAM was first up in the same dash after missing a month and tired a bit late. She should be all set to produce her best now. (6) DEUCETTE closed quickly in her debut and can threaten here if Henry sends her for position early.

Race 7

(1) ON THE RIDGE hasn't missed the exacta so far in his career and the Kadabra colt doesn't need to improve much to contend. (4) BALLYKEEL BOMBER got a clean line last week and will likely be asked for more here; using. (3) LEROYS DREAM comes off a nice win at Flamboro and tries the big track now.

Race 8

(7) CASIMIR LOW GEAR was claimed for $5 K and stepped up to $10K for this same trainer last spring and won in 1:53 4/5 in that first start for the new connections at Georgian. He gets Filion and is likely a big go here. (2) MARKATHY has raced well in both starts for Stewart. This group is no tougher than the field he beat last week; call to repeat. (5) LIKE A VIRGIN steps up for trainer Weller here who continues to run hot; using.

Race 9

(6) TEA WITH MS MCGILL paced a 26 4/5 third quarter in his March 17 qualifier getting ready for this seasonal bow. He looks ready to roll. (3) CANADIAN WRITER continues to race well and looks like the main danger to the choice. Expect this gelding to be more forwardly placed tonight. (2) BIG PETES STYLE will likely stick around for a share here.

Race 10

(1) HP BLACK SHADOW gets major post relief in his second start for Johnson and gets a slight nod in a tough dash to end the late Pick 4. (4) HIGH RESOLUTION has been racing okay at London and now debuts for Montini. He should drop a few seconds here on the bigger track. (6) LITTLE TURK fits in this conditioned claimer and should get some pace to chase. (5) GOODMORNINGMISTER will be passing many of these down the lane and is a good one to use in the exotics. (3) SPEED RACER will likely be on top early and can stick around for a piece.
 
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Yonkers: Thursday 3/24 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 76 - 300 / $531.60

BEST BETS: 8 - 24 / $30.60

Best Bet: KIDDIE MCCARDLE (5th)

Spot Play: BAD GIRL VEGAS (4th)


Race 1

(6) TOUCH THE ROCK was nailed in the last jump for win honors last out. Gelding appears to be in solid form and has every right to boss this group at his best. (2) TOUCH AND GO left the pocket at the 3/4 pole but went flat in the final stretch drive recently. (1) GIACOMETTI rallied strongly to miss the score by only a length last time around.

Race 2

(2) CELEBRITY BLUECHIP picked up a check upstate last out but now this trotting gelding is back at his home turf where he got the job done two trips ago. (1) PINE TAB put in a mild rally for the placing last time out. (5) KLM EXPRESS was late on the scene and came up short to lose the victory by a length in his latest.

Race 3

(8) HUSTLEONHOME 9-year-old mare raced quite well last out. Now she will have to get it done from the 8-hole, but she appears to be in fine form. A favorable trip will put this gal into the winner's circle. (3) JUST SAYIN was going the long mile and tired in the stretch run last out. (2) DEREK DELIGHT is speedy and most likely she will be on the engine.

Race 4

(5) BAD GIRL VEGAS is knocking at the door based on her last two trips to the post. Mare appears to be heading in the right direction. With a well rated drive, she can make tonight a winning one. (3) AMERICAN ALIVE came first over at the 3/4 pole and just held on for win honors recently. (1) M A REFLING got the job done via the pocket route last time out.

Race 5

(1) KIDDIE MCCARDLE was facing much better of late, so the class relief should help her cause. Retains the rail and has every right to be the boss over this group. (5) SUMMER SNOW has found a better spot to contend in here; maybe. (3) KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N needs to revert to her March 10th trip to be a factor; we shall see.

Race 6

Hopefully (6) TOP BRAND can put it all together. Pacing mare was a very game second at this level on March 3rd and now she takes a slight drop in class from her last two tries; worth a look. (2) FOX VALLEY HERMIA did not fire at all in her Jersey finale, but maybe the Hilltop will help her chances. (1) LOONEY DUNE showed sharp speed but was nailed at the wire in her latest outing.

Race 7

(3) SENTIMENTAL LADY was very game in her last start to miss the victory by a neck. She has the tactical speed to rate and score over these; threat at her best. (4) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY is on a roll scoring her fifth straight victory and will clearly be the one to deny. (2) NIPPY W HANOVER will need to revert to his March 3rd try to make a dent with these.

Race 8

(1) ONTHECLOCK HANOVER has put in two good efforts for show money and now this gelding moves to the rail. He is very capable of taking these down the road for all the glory. (3) GALLANT SEELSTER gets some class relief and that might help his cause; maybe. (7) SPORTING THE LOOK led every step of the way, but was nipped in deep stretch for top honors last out.

Race 9

(4) FOUR BOYS was uncovered approaching the half and tired in the stretch run last time around. Gelding has proven to belong with these and was sharp in victory two starts back; big threat. (3) SIGN TO INVERELL A closed down the center of the track but came up a little short to lose by a length and quarter recently. (1) REAL FLIGHT put in a sharp pocket rally to get up for the victory last out.

Race 10

(1) NOBLES FINESSE is seeking his first score of the year and his last start is an indication he's about to move forward and greet the cameraman for pictures. (3) ROCKSTAR STRIDE has pulled off two scores in a row against lesser company. (4) WHAT I BELIEVE is another one that has wheeled off two straight victories in the NW of $12k ranks.

Race 11

(4) SCREAMAN SEAMAN A showed improvement in his latest try. Gelding does have tactical speed and with a favorable trip he can get the job done. (2) INTHENAMEOFJAMES flashed speed but came uncovered and tried in the final stretch run recently. (3) R CAAN fits with these and he must be considered despite his last flop.

Race 12

(1) EXHILARATED had a mild bid to grab fourth money last out. Now the mare moves to the fence and we shall see how Mr. Holland chooses to drive this gal; very capable of being a threat at her best. (3) LYONS SHADOW is knocking at the door based on her last two tries. (7) CAVIART SCARLETT comes by way of Dover Downs with four straight victories.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Whiskey Neat, 5-1
(6th) Daves Gone Bananas, 5-1


Charles Town (1st) Cockeyed Cowboy, 7-2
(6th) Mary's Listed Next, 9-2


Fair Grounds (6th) I Love Pickles, 9-2
(7th) Trend, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Warren's Joe T., 7-2
(7th) True Character, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (4th) Zena Rules, 5-1
(10th) All in Fun, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (1st) St. Louie Slew, 7-2
(7th) Valid Decision, 3-1


Penn National (2nd) Wild Willy Dean, 6-1
(3rd) Pam Got Even, 5-1


Santa Anita (5th) Margaret Reay, 8-1
(8th) Big Discovery, 5-1
 
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Thursday's six-pack

Here are bonuses earned and potentially earned by some coaches in Sweet 16:

-- Roy Williams, UNC: $ already earned, just in NCAAs: $250K. Potential earnings if Tar Heels win national title: $650K more

-- Billy Kennedy, Texas A&M: Already earned: $241,667. Potential: $83,334 more

-- Tom Crean, Indiana: Already earned: $85K. Potential: $425K more.

-- Dana Altman, Oregon: Already earned: $75K. Potential: $475K more.

-- Steve Prohm, Iowa State: Already earned: $50K. Potential: $350K more.

-- Mark Turgeon, Maryland: Already earned: $105K. Potential: #395K more
 
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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Thursday, March 24, 2016, NBA.

Two of the best offensive teams in the NBA clash: Portland is No. 7 in the NBA in points scored, the Clippers are No. 6. Portland is 7-0 over the total on the road, part of a 16-5 run over the total overall. The Over is 17-5 when the Blazers face the Western Conference. LA can play any style and is 5-2 over the total against a team with a winning straight up record.

Play Portland/LA Clippers Over the total.
 
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Roz Wins

Roz's Thurday, March 24, 2016, Free NBA Pick:

Oklahoma City can play any style, ranked No. 6 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense. Oklahoma City is 7-0 under the total against a team with a losing straight up record. Into town comes a Utah team that is all about slowing the pace down, No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed. Utah is on a 5-0 run under the total, 3-0-1 under on the road. And when these teams meet the under is 7-0, including 8-1 under in the last 9 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Play Utah/Oklahoma City Under the total.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday

817 TEXAS A&M vs. 818 OKLAHOMA 7:35 PM

Take: 817 TEXAS A&M +2.5

Talk about the ultimate freeroll. Texas A&M was dead and buried last Sunday against Northern Iowa. Then came the resurrection of the ages, the most incredible rally in college basketball history. The Aggies have to be believing they’re a team of destiny at this point. For those bettors who decided to fire on some pretty long odds on Texas A&M to win the whole ball of wax back in January, I can certainly understand if they’re feeling exactly the same way right now.

Of course, getting through tonight’s Sweet 16 clash with Oklahoma is not going to be easy. The Sooners have the cinch player of the year in Buddy Hield, they’re very used to playing big games thanks to how tough the Big 12 was this year, and Lon Kruger is just the type of even keel coach I really like in games like this.

But the Sooners could well have their hands full and maybe even overflowing against the Aggies. Texas A&M is pretty adept at forcing turnovers and that has been an occasional issue for Oklahoma. The Sooners can’t match A&M’s depth, and with the energy likely to be expended in a game of this magnitude, an extra fresh body or two could be important.

There are numerous aspects here that I could speculate on, but I’m really going to focus on just two. The first is just good old math. I suspect I have the Aggies rated a shade higher than most, and as much as I really like this Oklahoma team, I’m pretty sure I’ve rated them just a tad lower than the majority of those who do their own power ratings. For what it’s worth, I have Texas A&M as a one-point favorite over Oklahoma on a neutral court. So there’s a touch of value on the Aggies side from my vantage point.

But the big key for me really is what I mentioned at the top. This is the ultimate freeroll. The Aggies really have zero pressure on themselves here as they’re rightfully supposed to be watching these games on TV back in College Station. This is bonus basketball and the team has absolutely nothing to lose. In a game this huge, I like the idea of backing the squad that ought to be as loose as a goose. Since my numbers don’t suggest otherwise, I’m going to take that basket and ride with the Texas A&M side tonight.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Thursday, March 24, 2016 7:05 PM EST

(801) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS (802) INDIANA PACERS

Take: (802) INDIANA PACERS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, March 24, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between New Orleans and the Pacers in Indiana. New Orleans doesn't match up well with Indiana, 0-8 ATS the last eight meetings. New Orleans is not playing any defense, allowing over 105 points in 10 straight. The Pelicans are 8-20 ATS against the Eastern Conference and on a 2-6 spread run. Indiana is home and the Pacers are 14-2 ATS playing on two days rest. Paul George finished with 15 points and six rebounds and Monta Ellis added 13 points to help Indiana coast past the still reeling Philadelphia 76ers 91-75 and jump-start a late-season playoff push. Indiana has seven remaining home games left and only four left against teams that started Monday with a record at or above .500. And the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Play Indiana.
 
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ASA

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma 8:35 PM ET

ASA Bonus Play Over 146.5 Points

Play Kansas

Kansas gets an extra day to rest and prepare here as they finished off UConn last Saturday while the Terps (who had a long trip to Spokane, WA) had to play on Sunday. Coaching edge also the KU with Bill Self and his 39-16 record in the NCAA tourney (5th highest winning % all time) compared to Turgeon who’s a pedestrian 8-6 lifetime in the Dance. The Terps struggled down the stretch winning just 3 of their final 8 games heading into the Big Dance. While they obviously did get two wins last week, they weren’t overly impressive in our eyes. They struggled to beat South Dakota State (couldn’t hold a big lead) and then while they beat Hawaii by 12, it was a close game until the final stretch run when the Terps closed out the game on a 30-19 run. Maryland’s tough closing run on the season was directly related to the struggles of their point guard Melo Trimble. He’s played so many minutes he’s hit a wall. In his last 12 games, Trimble is shooting just 32% and just 26% from beyond the arc. This team has no chance of beating KU unless Trimble shoots much better than that. Will he? We doubt it as Kansas is 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and guard Devonte Graham is one of the better defenders in the country. The Jayhawks have been at the top of their game since late January winning 16 straight including wins over NCAA teams Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia (twice), Baylor (twice), Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all in the final month and a half before the Dance. They destroyed both Austin Peay (by 26) & UConn (by 13 – but led by 24) in the first two games. This team is playing too well right now for Maryland to hang.
 
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Alex Smart

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma

Bonus Play Texas A&M

Oklahoma and Texas A&M go head to head in a Western Regional Semi Final match that promises to be a hard fought affair . Both these teams can put points on the board in a hurry, but the difference maker comes via defense, where the Aggies are the superior side, as is evident by having held 8 of their L/10 opponents under 69 total points. Considering the Sooners, notorious reputation for long cold shooting stretches, it becomes evident we have an edge backing the Aggies. The old adage that suggests defense wins big games and championships must be applied here today by anyone handicapping this top tier matchup.

Oklahoma is 8-18 ATS as a favorite this season and they have failed to cover 6 straight games overall.

Play on the Texas A&M Aggies to cover 1/2 unit comp selection
 
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Tony George

Miami (Fla) vs Villanova

Thursday Sweet 16 Bonus Play Villanova -4

I am laying it with a team that clearly belongs in the Final 4. Miami got lucky catching a fatigued and tired Wichita State team in their last game. Nova destroyed Iowa and cruised to a win and I like their rebounding and the ability of 4 of their starters to add double digits each in scoring. This is not Buffalo and a beat up Mo Valley team, Nova is a 5 loss team who has dominated every team they have played in this tourney. If you noticed rebounding was a huge factor in the early round games and second chance points and more than 1 key player that can be counted on for points. All this favor Nova who is an amazing 16-4 away from their home floor.

Bonus Play on Villanova
 
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Red Dog Sports

SPAIN vs Italy

Bonus Play Draw +221

Take the draw when Spain and Italy meet on Thursday. The total is set at 2 so they are expecting a low score. I think it ends 1-1.

Italy 1

Spain 1
 

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