NCAA TOURNAMENT
Session III, Thursday
Thursday’s evening session features four games on tap and gamblers will be facing a pair of double-digit spreads, plus two contests that have numbers listed close to a pick ‘em. The first battle starts at 7:10 p.m. EDT and the last contest of the third session tips 15 minutes later at 7:15 p.m. EDT. Let’s break ‘em down!
Midwest Regional at Oklahoma City - No. 8 UNLV vs. No. 9 Northern Iowa (7:10 p.m. EDT)
If you’re looking for an old-school basketball matchup to watch in the opening round, then check out Northern Iowa (28-4 SU, 20-11 ATS) battle UNLV (25-8 SU, 19-12 ATS) from the Ford Center. Unfortunately, the winner of this matchup will most likely meet the top overall seed from the tournament, Kansas, if it doesn’t fall to No. 16 Lehigh in the first round.
The Panthers won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament behind a defense (54.3 PPG) that frustrates opponents into mistakes. Head coach Ben Jacobson and his troops are no strangers to the Big Dance, making their fifth visit since 2004. Unfortunately for Northern Iowa, they haven’t won any of its four previous trips but they did go 3-1 ATS. Looking at the four losses closer, UNI lost all four by exactly five points and the opponents – Purdue, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech – were all top-tier programs.
Fast forward to this March and UNI is still an underdog albeit a short one (+1) against UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after losing in the Mountain West Conference championship to San Diego State (45-55), an opponent that plays a similar style to UNI. The Rebels can play fast or slow but head coach Lon Kruger has decided to put defense (63.6 PPG) first in the desert.
Offensively, UNLV goes as Tre’Von Willis goes. The shooting guard leads the team with 17.7 PPG and a lot of his points come from the free throw line (86%). Unfortunately the rest of the attack has been inconsistent, which is why defense has become the key in Las Vegas.
The Panthers are by no means an offensive juggernaut (63.3 PPG) but they play smart and they make their free throws (75.4%) too. UNI has a lot of experience, returning all five starters from last year’s team, plus nine of the top 10 players. Jordan Eglseder, a 7-foot center, has been capable in the frontcourt for UNI, plus they have six players that have notched 20-plus bombs from 3-point land.
The total on this game is listed at 113 points, which is the lowest ‘over/under’ in the 32 first round games. UNI has watched the ‘under’ go 21-7 (75%) on the season and the majority of totals were listed at 125 or less. Bettors playing totals on UNLV have seen the total split at 15-15 but the ‘under’ closed with a 7-3 run to end the season. Tournament trends for UNI have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 in their last four appearances.
East Regional at New Orleans - No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 ETSU (7:15 p.m. EDT)
The New Orleans Arena will get to see head coach John Calipari and Kentucky (32-2 SU, 17-15 ATS) start its tournament run against East Tennessee State (20-14 SU, 2-1 ATS). It’s safe to say that the Wildcats should advance in this spot but will they be able to cover the 19 ½-point spread?
ETSU won the Atlantic Sun Tournament and finished the season with six straight victories. When trying to gauge how the Buccaneers will do against Kentucky, you can point to some non-conference clashes. They beat Arkansas (94-85) but lost to Louisville (56-69), Tennessee (66-78) and UAB (52-74). The problem with the Bucs is their offense (69.2 PPG), which has struggled shooting from the field (43.5%) plus their accuracy from the 3-point line (31%) and free throw stripe (66.3%) is pretty ugly. Now the A-Sun champs face Kentucky, who are ranked fourth nationally in rebounding and fifth in defensive field goal percentage (38%).
Laying 20-plus points with Kentucky this season has produced a 1-4 ATS record. Even though it’s a different squad in Lexington, we’d be remiss not to look at Calipari’s performance with Memphis in the first round over the last four years. Coach Cal and the Tigers went 4-0 as double-digit favorites in their NCAA Tournament opener during this span, but were just 1-3 ATS.
The total on the game is sitting at 138 and the Bucs don’t posses the firepower to keep up with the ‘Cats, so a low-scoring affair could be in order. However, Kentucky does have the athletes and shooters, if they’re on, to explode for 80-plus on anybody.
Barring a major upset, Kentucky would meet either No. 8 Texas or No. 9 Wake Forest on Saturday.
East Regional at San Jose - No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Washington (7:20 p.m. EDT)
If you handicap this game based on the conferences, then Marquette (22-11 SU, 14-18 ATS) would be a no-brainer since it played in the highly regarded Big East and Washington (22-11 SU, 16-10 ATS) played in the Pac 10, which was awful this season. However, you still suit up for 40 minutes and if you look at the big picture, the Huskies could be the play in this spot.
For starters, Washington is the Pac 10 champion, whether you feel that’s an accomplishment or not. Lorenzo Romar’s team does enter the tournament with a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) and their 12-2 the last 14. The non-conference schedule wasn’t exactly tough but they were competitive in a loss to Georgetown (66-74) and the Huskies beat Texas A&M (73-64), even though the Aggies lost their second-leading scorer Derek Roland to a devastating leg injury.
Take away those outcomes and the Huskies have proven that they’re still a talented squad. Quincy Pondexter (19.8 PPG) and Isaiah Thomas (17.1 PPG) lead an offense that averaged 79.8 PPG and the attack shoots a decent percent (72) from the free throw line as well. Washington likes to play in the seventies and eighties, while Thursday’s opponent wouldn’t mind a game in the low sixties.
Marquette has some names to follow too, most notably Lazar Hayward (18.1 PPG). The senior leader helped the club rebound from a 2-5 start in conference play and eventually took them to the Big East semifinals, where they ran out of gas against Georgetown (57-80). The Golden Eagles finished conference play with an 11-7 mark, which seems good on paper and to the amateur player. If you investigate further, only two (Georgetown, Louisville) of those 11 wins came against the seven other Big East teams that were invited to the tournament.
Buzz Williams is a solid coach and he’s done a lot with this squad that lost three key players last year, but facts are facts folks. Sure they went 7-3 in their last 10 but four of those games were overtime affairs, which saw Marquette go 3-1. Are the Golden Eagles legit or just lucky?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence offered up some quality trends that favor Marquette in this situation. He said, “Big East clubs won all three meetings against Pac 10 teams this year, plus schools from the Big East have gone 6-0 against the number in the tournament against Pac 10 foes the last two years.”
The Huskies (7-7) and Golden Eagles (9-7) didn’t exactly boast stellar records outside of their homecourt this season, but they didn’t have losing marks either.
Marquette has been installed as a short favorite (-1.5) in this contest and the total (143) is geared towards Washington’s pace. The Golden Eagles can play either way but running with the Huskies might be dangerous for Williams’ squad. Plus you have to factor in the environment of San Jose too, which is in Pac 10 country. Traveling from Seattle is a lot easier than making a long-distance trip from Milwaukee.
A second round battle against No. 3 New Mexico or No. 14 Montana will be on deck Saturday for the winner.
Midwest Regional at Providence - No. 3 Georgetown vs. No. 14 Ohio (7:25 p.m. EDT)
When you size Georgetown (23-10 SU, 17-12 ATS) up on paper against Ohio (21-14 SU, 18-12ATS) it looks like a mismatch, which is why the oddsmakers have listed the Hoyas as 13 ½-point favorites. However, the looks may be deceiving here.
Head coach John Thompson III and the Hoyas boast some serious talent in both the frontcourt and backcourt. The four-headed monster of Austin Freeman (16.7 PPG), Greg Monroe (16.1 PPG), Chris Wright (14.8 PPG) and Jason Clark (10.6 PPG) all have potential to play at the next level. However, the team is lacking depth after this quartet and it showed in their record. Some pundits are a little surprised that a No. 3 seed has 10 losses, which is pretty high if you think about it especially when you consider that 45 of the 65 teams in the field has less than 10 losses.
Ohio wasn’t expected to win the MAC Tournament but it rallied for an 81-75 overtime victory against Akron in the championship. Armon Bassett, an Indiana transfer with tournament experience, scored 25 in the finale and will be looked upon for leadership against the Hoyas.
Gamblers will face a tough predicament here since both schools have been golden versus the number lately. The Hoyas closed the year on a 5-0 ATS run and that was against much tougher outs. Meanwhile, Ohio blasted the bookmakers with an 11-1 stretch to end the seasons, which included three straight covers in the conference tournament.
Even though the Hoyas’ defense will be more athletic, the ‘Cats have been known to put the ball in the hoop (74.2 PPG). And their defense (68.7 PPG) isn’t a brick wall either. When you look at those facts, an ‘over’ play might be the call here. The total is hovering around 138 points and if Georgetown hits its shots from the outside, this one could be ‘over’ early.
The winner of this game will advance to the second round for a meeting against Tennessee or San Diego State.