VEGAS RUNNER
2* Cleveland st -7.5. ***2* MORNING MOVES PERSONAL PLAY***
Good Morning Gentlemen…Another “TRUE STEAM” Winner last night, now makes it “6” Straight…And also makes us “7-2” on MORNING MOVES Overall…Tonight, for those of you who are also Premium Subscribers…we’ll try to make it “7” Straight “TRUE STEAM” Winners…As we unload only our “2nd” 3* TRUE STEAM BOMB of 2010...And after a nice “4-0” SWEEP on Wednesday, I couldn’t be any more confident in my Ratings…So let’s move along to today’s Newsletter, because I believe this is a very important topic…And one that EVERY sports bettor needs to address…
What I would like to discuss today is a topic that I get asked about all the time from plenty of handicappers and sports bettors alike…Which is, “How can you really make money betting sports ??”
What I’ve come to realize in all my years of being in this industry in one capacity or another…from bookmaking, to moving steam, and ultimately becoming a professional sports bettor who manages both, my own money…as well as a bankroll which began as an investment between a group of friends, which is now more or less a fund…is that there are so many really competent handicappers and bettors, who are never able to make any money wagering on sports…
And it has nothing to do with their ability to pick more winners than losers…In fact, that’s actually the easy part for many of these guys…But instead, it’s their inability to manage their bankroll that always seems to be their downfall…They refuse to understand that when you put your money down, you are attempting to make an investment…And with any investment, if you aren’t treating it like a business…it will never pay off like one…
And what’s unfortunate is that they continue to make the same mistakes with their money over and over again…But for some reason or other, they seem to expect a different outcome…Which just isn’t going to happen…
The truth is, I am not egotistical enough to actually believe that I am a better handicapper or sports bettor than everyone else…And this is actually a topic that was discussed over breakfast the other day between myself, RJ, and Chad Millman…who is the author of “The Odds”, and also an editor for ESPN the Magazine and ESPN.com…And what we were discussing was the character traits of those bettors who actually do make money wagering on sports…And since he has interviewed and written about plenty of them, he really had some very valid points…Some of which we will definitely be discussing in future Newsletters…
But the reason I bring that up, is because the one thing that we all agreed on, is that those who do make money wagering on sports…ALL understand that it’s a business, and not a gamble…And they treat each and every wager as an investment, rather than a chance for action…This is a difficult thing to do for many because wagering on sports is also entertaining and used as a recreation for many…But not for those who have decided that they are going to bet on sports as a means to make money…They are not looking to make a score, instead, they are looking for a steady stream of profit…With the understanding that like any business, there will be set-backs and there will be days and weeks where they don’t turn a profit…And that’s ok with them because they know like any other successful business, there are always times where there will be expenses…And for bettors, those expenses are the inevitable losing stretches that come with being a winning sports bettor…
As I mentioned above, I am not ego-driven so when I say that I am one of those bettors who actually do make their money wagering on sports…I say this to show you that it isn’t about intelligence, because there are plenty of guys I know who bet sports that are smarter than me…But there is a reason that CNBC found me to interview for their “Illegal Gambling” documentary, out of so many so-called professional sports bettors around the world and here in Vegas…And the reason is because I learned how to treat this like a business from back when I was a Bookmaker…And I took those traits with me as I went on to move “steam”…and then to betting professionally on my own…
What I learned most is that you can’t continue to make the same mistakes and expect a different outcome this time around…But for some reason, so many very intelligent people just can’t shake that habit when they bet…And they continue to find themselves losing their bankrolls the very same way, time and time again…What’s worse, is that they always tell themselves that they will never do that again when they get another bankroll together…And for a little while it’s true and they do all of the things that they know they should be doing…But as soon as they get hot, or worse, struggle…that new found game-plan goes out the window…and they go on to make those same mistakes they’ve made countless times in the past, which have always led to ruin…
That is not treating this line a business…Instead, it’s treating it like a gamble…Because what they are doing is not trying to use their edge to beat the market…they are instead trying to defy probability…And we all know how that always ends up for the gambler…
So what you need to do, if you ever really plan on making money betting on sports is this…
Identify why you are wagering and be truthful…Because it’s ok if your goal is to enjoy a game and have a little action on it…We all know that entertainment costs us money, and for bettors…the cost is what you ultimately end up paying the Bookmakers you wager with…And again, that is ok and there is nothing wrong with that, but you have to be straight with yourself and acknowledge that fact so that you can then control your entertainment and not spend more than you planned on…
But if your answer is…”to make money”…then you really need to again be honest with yourself…And ask yourself if you truly are treating this like a business at all times?…Because we all know that if you don’t follow certain business principles…then your business will fail…And like any other business, if you don’t follow certain principles…as a sports bettor, you will fail…
I don’t want to discourage anyone…And truth is, I am living proof that anyone with drive, ambition, and the ability to learn from others…can actually make money doing nothing other than investing in the sports betting market…But with that said, it’s not easy…In fact, just the opposite…it’s extremely difficult because there are so many pitfalls and temptations to make costly mistakes each and every day…And no matter how successful your business gets, you will continue to be faced with those same challenges all the time…
Finally…the reason that I wanted to discuss this and put the question out there about “why you bet”…is because we will be discussing some of the money management techniques that I have found to be the most beneficial…But before we do, and before you can put them into practice…I think that you first need to take a moment and really define for yourself why it is that you wager…So that you can then make decisions that reflect the reason…
And for those who are like myself…and do decide that they want to bet on sports to make money…and not for entertainment…Then you have to never forget that this is a business…And that from here on out, every decision that you make must be in the best interest of your business…I will show you many of the things that we’ve done to grow our business…And also help you avoid some of the mistakes that we made along the way…
So that in the end, if you put these things into practice…And continue to treat sports betting like a business…then I promise you, that just like is has for myself and those I work with…IT WILL EVENTUALLY PAY YOU LIKE ONE…
Thanks again for all your support fellas, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner.
LINE PREDICTION :
1.) UNDER 162 ND/SETON HALL…
This is an Espn “Prime-Time” Match-Up…which means that it will definitely get some betting action from the public/recreational bettors…And that means we can expect the Wiseguys to try and get ahead of the market, by going UNDER as soon as more “outs” make the Total available…And although this may not be a “True” Position…it is one that should allow them to try and middle the game if they choose to…Because according to books that I spoke with already, they expect the betting public to come in on the Under as well…I am interested in seeing if the Outfits decide to keep the position, or if they get off it sometime before tip-off…Because the market will show that the initial position has Value, but their handicappers will determine if it’s “actual” value, or “perceived” value…VR
Thu, 02/11/10 - 7:00 PMVR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet516 Cleveland St -7.5 (-110) Sportbet vs 515 Valparaiso
Analysis:** CBB "MORNING MOVES" 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
The fact that Valpo beat Cleveland St. in their 1st meeting at Home, gives us some extra Value on this Bet...Because in that 1st Game, Valpo was actually a "Home Dog" of 2 Points...
More importantly, this goes back to the concept that we covered in yesterday's Newsletter about "Home Court Edge"...And when you look at Cleveland St...who is "12-12" Overall...and "3-7" on the Road...you can see just how much of a "Home Court Edge" this team has...
Cleveland St had beaten Valpo 5 straight times before this year's meeting...And I expect Cleveland St to get some revenge tonight against a team that they've had very little problems with in the past...The fact that we are getting to lay less than double-digits is giving us the best of it...And I was actually prepared to pay a higher price to take this position...
I wouldn't be surprised if we see some of the Outfits get on board as well...VR
