Thursday 12/4/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday 8:00 PM NCAAB

(529) MOREHEAD STATE at (530) UAB

Take: (529) MOREHEAD STATE +1.5

This is where I usually attempt to break down a game from a matchup standpoint and see if I can find the winner. There’s none of that to speak of here. I think Morehead is the slightly better team but that’s not why I’m playing the Eagles tonight. They just happen to be the opponent as this is almost entirely a play against UAB.

You’re probably aware of what has just taken place at UAB. The football program is no more and it’s safe to say the atmosphere on campus right now is toxic. Everyone is sore at the school president and let’s just say the entire situation has become a gigantic clusteryouknowwhat.

Don’t think for one minute this is restricted to football. UAB has also cut the rifle and bowling teams. They’re now one sport of the minimum to even remain at the D-1 level. Even if they’re able to add that one required new varsity sport, the Blazers are done in CUSA and will clearly be forced to step down to a lower level conference, based on all reports I’ve read.

The fallout from all this is predictable. The certain loss in conference prestige is very likely to have coaches and players looking at other options. That’s a given in my opinion and I don’t see how that can be even remotely beneficial in the long run. As for the short run, I suppose there’s always the possibility this galvanizes the basketball team and they adapt an us against the world mentality. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Obviously, I’m not going to know for sure until viewing tonight’s proceedings exactly what the atmosphere will be at Bartow Arena. So call this a guess if you will, but I’m willing to bet it’s not going to be real upbeat. Thus, I basically removed the points I’d normally assign for a typical home court advantage. In fact, it wouldn’t stun me if there’s now a home court disadvantage.

Morehead State might just simply be in the right place at the right time. If that ends up being the case, there might be an opportunity to keep fading UAB as this is the opener of a four-game homestand. I’m taking my shot with Morehead State as a small dog this evening.
 
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Jim Feist

Comp NBA Pick for Thurssday, December 4, 2014: 10:05 PM EST

(503) INDIANA PACERS VS (504) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, December 4, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled game between the Indiana Pacers and Blazers at the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon. Portland can play any style with its big frontcourt, but Indiana is in town with a weak offense and will want to slow it down. Indiana is 25th in scoring, but 6th in points allowed. The under is 3-1-1 in the Pacers last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest. Portland has shot to No. 3 in the West with improved defense, 8th in the NBA in points allowed. They are 10-4 under the total on one day of rest. The under is 12-3 in the Blazers last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 15-5-1 under the total at home vs. a team with a losing road record. Play Indiana/Portland Under the total.
 
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Marc Lawrence

Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears

Bonus Play - Cowboys-Bears OVER

Edges - Cowboys: 4-0 OVER last four games in this series; and teams off SU Thanksgiving Day favorite loss are 4-0 OVER since 2000. Bears: 7-0 OVER last seven meetings versus NFC East opponents. With NFL non-division Prime Time night games flying OVER the total at an alarming rate this season, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Bears and Cowboys to play OVER the total. Thank you and good luck as always.
 
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Joe Gavazzi

Central Florida vs. East Carolina

A Free Thursday Night CFB Game and a Word to the Wise:

C. Florida at E. Carolina (-7) 7:20 ET ESPN

Central Florida (+7)

Nice line value for the far better defensive team, who can claim a tie for AAC superiority with this victory tonight! The Knights have a 7-4 ATS record, including 5-2 ATS in conference play. Compare that to the 1-6 ATS log for the Pirates in AAC action. Yet, because they have a flashy offense and get far more ink, we are receiving nearly a TD more with our defensive dog. No doubt the Pirates can be an explosive offensive team behind QB Carden, they average 38 PPG and 364/7.7 through the air. Tonight, however, Carden faces the number 17 defense in the nation, a UCF team that allows just 17 PPG, 271 YPG and 4.2 YP play. That includes 166/5.0 through the air for the No. 1 pass efficiency defense in the country. QB Holtman, though not nearly as flashy, has led the Knights to a 3-0 SU ATS finish in which they have handled lower echelon teams Tulsa, SMU and USF by combined scores of 100-14. Must be eager to line up with the superior coach in UCF HC O’Leary, the better defense and the value price!
 
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Sam Martin

Central Florida at East Carolina 7:30PM

5* Bonus Play Central Florida

Reason: 5* Play on Central Florida. These two teams are heading in opposite directions and after backing UCF as a premium 20* selection last week in their shutout win and ATS cover against South Florida, we'll back UCF again this week in a tougher matchup against East Carolina.

Different kind of foe for UCF, who faced an offensively-challenged South Florida squad last week, and now face an East Carolina team that has lost all of their momentum and are really struggling defensively. Back-to-back wins against Tulane and Tulsa hasn't changed our opinion after a pair of outright favored losses against Temple and Cincinnati. UCF has enough offense to stay close and possibly win outright! 5* Play on Central Florida.
 

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