Thursday 12/4/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Early success has made East Carolina bad ATS
Justin Hartling

The East Carolina Pirates are an abysmal 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games. The Pirates average scoring margin during those seven games is +9.8, but their spread have been an average -19.

The Pirates are currently -6.5 when they host UCF Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Trends

College Football Betting Trends - Thurs, Dec. 4

UCF at E Carolina, 7:30 ET
UCF: 7-0 ATS off a road win
E Carolina: 6-17 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

College Football Betting Trends - Fri, Dec. 5

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green, 7:00 ET
N Illinois: 8-7 UNDER after a 2 game road trip
Bowling Green: 17-6 UNDER after playing a conference game

Arizona at Oregon, 9:00 ET
Arizona: 8-20 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game
Oregon: 7-0 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

College Football Betting Trends - Sat, Dec. 6

SMU at Connecticut, 12:00 ET
SMU: 17-32 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
Connecticut: 13-2 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Iowa State at TCU, 12:00 ET
Iowa St: 13-27 ATS in road games after allowing 37 points or more last game
TCU: 33-16 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game

Temple at Tulane, 7:30 ET
Temple: 6-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Tulane: 1-6 ATS after gaining 40 or less rushing yards last game

Houston at Cincinnati, 12:00 ET
Houston: 7-1 ATS as a road underdog
Cincinnati: 6-1 UNDER against conference opponents

Kansas State at Baylor, 3:30 ET
Kansas St: 19-5 ATS after playing a conference game
Baylor: 27-12 OVER after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma State: 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 17.5 to 21 points
Oklahoma: 13-3 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Louisiana Tech at Marshall, 12:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 7-21 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival
Marshall: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Missouri at Alabama, 4:00 ET
Missouri: 3-10 ATS in December games
Alabama: 27-13 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins

Florida State at Georgia Tech, 8:00 ET
Florida St: 14-5 UNDER as a neutral field favorite
Georgia Tech: 12-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Wisconsin at Ohio State, 8:15 ET
Wisconsin: 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Ohio State: 0-6 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival

Fresno State at Boise State, 10:10 ET
Fresno St: 16-10 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Boise St: 59-32 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 14
By Marc Lawrence

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

This Sunday afternoon we’ll final learn the identity of the final four teams named to compete in the first-ever FBS playoffs. Rest assured there will be plenty of politicking taking place this weekend.

As we head into the final week of the 2014 college football season, we present our final INSIDE THE STATS column for this year.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, December 1st, unless noted otherwise.

OIL SLUDGE

As we do each week on the football card each, here is a list of the favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We affectionately refer to them as ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NCAAFB: Connecticut

NFL: Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans (check line)

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that still quality on ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

With the list shortening by the week, here’s this year’s current list of ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Baylor, Boise State, East Carolina, Georgia Tech, Marshall, *Ohio State and TCU

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida International, *SMU and Wake Forest

Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or an underdog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

This week we find Ohio State in the ‘Play On’ dog list, with Connecticut appearing in the ‘Play Against’ favorite role.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

These are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game.

This week includes:

NCAAFB: No teams

NFL: Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: No teams

NFL: Carolina Panthers and New York Jets

TRENDING THIS WEEK

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 9-0 SU and ATS at home in his NFL career during December games in which the Packers own a winning record.

San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh is 7-0 SU and ATS away in his NFL career against non-division opponents that own a losing record.

The New York Jets are 6-0 SU and ATS against the Minnesota Vikings in December since 1980.

The New England Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS in Sunday night games the past two seasons.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 4-0 ATS in December away games in his NFL career off a SU and ATS loss.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 4-0 SU and ATS in his NFL career as an underdog in division games during December.

The Miami Dolphins are 0-6 SU and ATS at home after facing the New York Jets, and 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS at home after playing a Monday night game.

STAT OF THE WEEK

San Diego Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers is 30-6 SU in his NFL career during December, including 20-1 against opponents off a SU loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bears aim for TNF upset

DALLAS COWBOYS (8-4) at CHICAGO BEARS (5-7)

Line & Total: Dallas -3.5, Total: 52
Opening Line & Total: Dallas -3.5, Total: 51.5

The Cowboys look to get back on track after a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Eagles when they head to Soldier Field for a Thursday night meeting with the Bears.

Dallas hosted Philadelphia in a huge division matchup on Thanksgiving and got blown out 33-10 as 3-point home favorites. The club has now dropped three of its past five contests, going 1-4 ATS, but is a perfect 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in on the road this year.

Chicago also suffered a loss last Thursday, falling 34-17 as 7-point road underdogs in Detroit to end a two-game win streak. The Bears have won-and-covered in three straight meetings with the Cowboys overall.

These teams last met a year ago on Dec. 9, 2013, when Chicago won 45-28 as 2-point home favorites, giving the club a 3-1 mark (SU and ATS) in the past four home meetings in this series, dating back to 1996. The past four games played between these teams have gone Over the total with the average final total score being 54 points.

Dallas is 10-1 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its previous game since 1992, and is also 14-3 ATS in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14+ points at the half in that span. However, the Bears get to face a Cowboys team that is also 5-15 ATS after playing a Thursday game since 1992, and is 6-15 ATS in the second half of the season over the past three years.

The Cowboys had a huge game last week, but were unable to rise to the occasion in a 33-10 loss to Philadelphia. QB Tony Romo (2,718 pass yards, 22 TD, 8 INT) had one of his worst games of the year, throwing for just 199 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He’ll need to get himself back on track, and should be able to do so against a defense that is allowing 270.7 passing yards per game (30th in NFL). Last year vs. the Bears Romo threw for only 104 yards, but tossed three touchdowns.

WR Dez Bryant (67 rec, 952 yards, 10 TD) caught one of those touchdowns last year, but he also struggled last week against the Eagles, catching just four passes for 73 yards. He had six touchdown receptions in the four games leading up to the matchup and should be able to find success against this miserable Bears secondary.

RB DeMarco Murray (1,427 rush yards, 8 TD) continues to play extremely well for this team and was the only bright spot in the loss to Philly. Murray rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries and also added six catches for 40 yards. He will need to set the tone for this team early on against Chicago, just like he did last season when he steamrolled the Bears for 146 yards on 18 carries (6.1 YPC).

The Cowboys defense will need to step it up though, as they’re playing against an offense that is capable of putting up points. Dallas has allowed 30.5 PPG over its past two contests and will need to lower that number in order to finish this season strong.

The Bears went to Detroit and led 14-3 after the first quarter of the game, but were dominated throughout the rest of the contest. Chicago’s defense allowed a struggling Lions QB Matthew Stafford to throw for 390 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. They’ll need to completely alter their defense heading into this one or Tony Romo will certainly make them pay through the air.

QB Jay Cutler (3,105 pass yards, 24 TD, 14 INT) threw for 280 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss to Detroit. He played well in the first half, but once the Bears went down, he was forcing the issue. Cutler should be able to move the ball against a Cowboys defense that has fallen off in recent weeks, and are now allowing 244.5 passing yards per game (20th in NFL) and 119.6 rushing yards per game (22nd in NFL).

RB Matt Forte (828 yards, 5 TD) should be able to find success against this defense as well. Forte inexplicably got just five carries against the Lions last game, but he did catch six passes for 52 yards. Chicago will likely feed him early in this game because it just can’t afford to use its best player as little as they did on Thanksgiving when the club rushed for a total of 13 yards on eight carries. Dallas had no answer for Forte last season, as he racked up 175 total yards and a touchdown in the 45-28 romp.

WR Alshon Jeffery (67 rec, 854 yards, 7 TD) gained 84 yards and a touchdown versus the Cowboys last year, and has been unstoppable for this team lately. He had nine catches for 71 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions and has now racked up five touchdowns in the past four games. WR Brandon Marshall (58 rec, 660 yards, 8 TD) will likely fail to reach 1,000 yards for the first time since his 2006 rookie campaign, but he caught six passes for 100 yards against Dallas last December.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: Johnny 'Football' fever puts breaks on Browns bettors
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders (+7.5)

The only uncertainty facing the Raiders at this point is whether they can hold off the Titans and Jaguars for the league’s worst record. And if they do, will they draft Marcus Mariotta after spending a high draft pick on Derek Carr last spring? Because when you go into the locker room down 38-0, as the Raiders did this past Sunday in St. Louis, it’s over.

Heavy early money is on the Niners on this one, and justifiably so. The Raiders have nothing left in the tank and will play games during the month of December only to remain in compliance with NFL rules. Don’t be too concerned about the extra half-point or the fact that the game will be played in Oakland. Get in at -7.5 before the line goes up.

Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

Awkward situation in Cleveland, where the Browns are in the thick of the playoff race for the first time in forever. They have a decent but not all-that-great QB in Brian Hoyer, but know that Johnny Manziel is the future. The Browns turned to Manziel late this past Sunday when the offense stalled in Buffalo, and no one seems sure what’s in store for this Sunday.

Mike Pettine says that he won’t make an announcement on the starting QB for the Colts game until Wednesday, but it sounds a lot like Manziel will be under center. "The door is definitely open for a change at the quarterback position," Pettine said after the loss to the Bills. Might be worth hanging tight until we know for sure.

Total to watch

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (49)

Game of the week, in the NFC anyway, and both teams need this one pretty badly. The Seahawks and Eagles are both flying high with two straight wins, but there is a bit more of a sense of urgency for 8-4 Seattle, which could be on the outside looking in at the playoff picture a week from now.

The Seahawks defense hasn’t given up a touchdown for eight straight quarters and Philadelphia is coming off a solid defensive game against the Cowboys. With all that in mind and the cold weather setting in the East, 49 points seems like a generous number and an Under play looks reasonable.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you're betting. Whether it's a team looking past this week's opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Letdown spot

It’s been a long time since the St. Louis Rams put it on someone that bad – 18 years to be exact. The Rams showed shades of “The Greatest Show on Turf” with their 52-0 flogging of the Oakland Raiders last Sunday, covering the spread by 45.5 points. That ties for the fifth biggest spread cover in the NFL since 1985. St. Louis actually tied itself, which defeated the Atlanta Falcons 59-16 as a 2.5-point home underdog in Week 11 of the 1996 season.

It’s easy to say the Rams can only regress from a win like that – and they will. But even getting a victory against the Washington Redskins could be tough this weekend. St. Louis hits the road where it is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS, playing in what could be some wet winter weather in Washington. The Sunday forecast in DC is calling for a chance of rain and temperatures in the low 40s. The Redskins are home after two tough road games.

Lookahead spot

Folks in the Big Smoke don’t seem to have the same cocky strut they had when the Toronto Raptors were rolling over the likes of Memphis and Cleveland a couple short weeks ago. Raptors fans are biting their nails with the recent injury to leading scorer DeMar DeRozan and a bad loss to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday.

Toronto is in the midst of a Western Conference run, taking on Sacramento Tuesday and Utah Wednesday in a tough back-to-back set before coming home to play the rebooted Cavaliers Friday night. The short-handed Raptors are anxious to get back over the border and could get caught looking past the Jazz Wednesday, with King James & Co. out to prove they’re the team to beat in the East Friday inside the Air Canada Centre.

Schedule spot

The Philadelphia Flyers are home sick even before kicking off a West Coast road trip in San Jose Tuesday. The Flyers are 6-4-0-2 inside the comfy confines of the Wells Fargo Center but just 2-8-0-1 when hitting the highway. And this week, the highways stretch across the entire country.

Philadelphia faces the Sharks Tuesday, at Anaheim Wednesday, and takes on the defending Stanley Cup champs, the Los Angeles Kings, Saturday. The Flyers have had past success against Pacific Division foes but this season they’re getting outscored 23-38 on the road – an average loss of 3.45-2.09. Those three West Coast foes are a combined 21-10-1-5 at home this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves
By JASON LOGAN

Thanksgiving is long gone and all that’s left is a dried up turkey wing, congealed cranberry sauce and some grey potatoes. And of course, the home stretch of the NFL season.

December is here and teams are fighting for playoff positioning in Week 14. We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the action coming in on this week’s NFL offerings and where those lines will end up come kickoff.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears – Open: +3.5, Move: +4

If your book hasn’t gone to Dallas -4 for the Thursday night, they probably will soon. Cowboys money is coming in strong on the road team, despite Dallas getting exposed by the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day. According to MGM, ticket count is heavy on Dallas a 4/1 pace.

“We’ve taken quite a bit of money on Dallas and will likely be pushing it up to -4 very soon,” says Stoneback. “We’re heavy on Dallas sides and also there are a lot parlays. And we’re on the verge of going to 51.5 or 52 on the total. Looks like we’ll need the underdog and the Under.”

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns – Open: +3.5, Move: +4

Some books are dealing a full four points on this line following the announcement that Cleveland will stick with QB Brian Hoyer and not start rookie QB Johnny Manziel. “Johnny Football” has been a draw for football bettors, sparking a massive wave of futures action on the Browns when drafted. But even if Manziel was to get the nod against the Colts, Stoneback doesn’t think the public would jump on board the Browns.

“Being that they’re winning and they are where they’re at with Hoyer, I don’t think people would have bet them any different (if Manziel played),” says Stoneback. “If it was like the third game of the season and they were playing poorly, I could see it having an impact. But the hype has worn down.”

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +4, Move: +5.5

Books have gone as high as Houston -5.5 with this AFC South battle, despite the Jaguars coming off a win over the Giants last Sunday – just their second victory of the season and sixth in the last two years. Jacksonville is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games off a victory.

“There’s no excitement for Jacksonville,” says Stoneback. “In fact, we haven’t written one single ticket on the Jaguars at any of our books as of Wednesday morning. Not a single bet at 12 different properties. There is someone out there with them tied in a parlay though. One guy.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

This line opened at pick at some books while MGM posted Arizona -1 and have stayed there despite a growing amount of money on the Cardinals. Stoneback says they actually have more tickets written on the Chiefs but more money riding on the home side.

“It’s a bunch of smaller wagers on the Chiefs,” he says. “This is one of those games where the public and sharps are going to be split. Kansas City is pretty popular with the public. There’s a lot of parlay money on them for a Wednesday.”

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

Some offshore markets are offering Seattle +1.5 with the early action hitting the Eagles hard. Stoneback, who is dealing Philadelphia -1, expects that money to even out by gametime. As of Wednesday, there is one more ticket on the Eagles than the Seahawks at MGM’s Las Vegas properties. The total in this offense-versus-defense showdown is a tough number to set and has dropped from the opener of 49 points.

“We’re currently at 49 but there are some places out there with a 48,” says Stoneback. “The majority of the early money is on the Under 49.”

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos – Open: -10, Move: -9.5

A limit play on the Bills moved this spread off the key number of Denver -10 early in the week. As of Wednesday, that’s the only significant action on this game. However, Stoneback says the money will come in on Denver – as it does every week.

“It’ll be the same scenario as it always is: Sharps on Bills and the public on the Broncos,” he says. “The real danger you get into is when the public and sharps are both on Denver.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cowboys at Bears
By Kevin Rogers

Four weeks remain in the NFL regular season as a pair of teams that were blown out Thanksgiving get another shot to shine on a Thursday night as the Bears host the Cowboys to kick off Week 14. The NFC playoff picture continues to stay tight with Detroit, Dallas, Seattle, and San Francisco fighting it out for the two Wild Card spots, but the Cowboys can’t afford a December meltdown as America’s Team looks for its playoff appearance since 2009.

Dallas (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) fell out of a tie for first place in the NFC East after Philadelphia went down to Big D and laid a whooping on the Cowboys, 33-10 as three-point underdogs. The Eagles ran all over the Dallas defense for 256 yards, including a season-high 159 yards from LeSean McCoy. The Cowboys allowed Philadelphia to score seven times (three touchdowns and four field goals), while Tony Romo was intercepted twice, snapping a three-game streak without a pick.

The Bears (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) looked good with a 14-3 lead at Detroit last Thursday before turning into turkeys as the Lions ran off 21 second quarter points to grab a 24-14 halftime advantage. Chicago was held to just a field goal in the second half as the Lions finished off their arch-rivals, 34-17 to cash as 7 ½-point home favorites. The Bears rushed for a whole 13 yards on eight carries, while the defense allowed 472 yards as Chicago has been outscored in its last three road losses, 140-54.

The Cowboys are the best road team in the league at 5-0, which includes a neutral-site blowout of the Jaguars in London back in Week 10. Dallas’ offense has performed better on the highway, scoring at least 30 points in four of those wins, with the lowest output coming in Week 2 at Tennessee in a 26-10 blowout of the Titans. The ‘over’ has hit in each of the Cowboys’ past four road contests, but Dallas has just one victory away from the Lone Star State against a team currently above .500, coming at Seattle in Week 6 as a 10-point underdog, 30-23.

Chicago began the season finding ways to lose at home, with three consecutive defeats to Buffalo, Green Bay, and Miami. However, Marc Trestman’s club has rebounded of late at Soldier Field with a pair of 21-13 wins against the Vikings and Buccaneers, while covering each time as a short favorite. Granted both Minnesota and Tampa Bay aren’t great offensively, but it’s a major confidence booster for this banged-up Bears’ defense that has allowed 20 points or less in regulation six times this season.

The Bears and Cowboys hooked up last December at Soldier Field in a primetime matchup, as Chicago chased out Dallas in a 45-28 triumph as one-point favorites. Jay Cutler missed the game with an injury, but Josh McCown lit up the Cowboys’ secondary for four touchdown passes, while Matt Forte rushed for 102 yards. Since 2010, the Bears have taken all three meetings with the Cowboys, as the past two wins came under the Monday night lights.

DeMarco Murray ran for less than 100 yards for just the second time this season in last week’s embarrassing loss to the Eagles, while finding the end zone only once in this past five games. In last season’s setback at Chicago, Murray was the lone bright spot offensively for the Cowboys with 146 yards rushing, but the Bears’ rushing defense has stepped up of late by yielding an average of 84 yards a game on the ground.

Since starting the season at 7-1 to the ‘over’ in Thursday night matchups, the ‘under’ has caught up recently by hitting in four of the past five weeks. The lone ‘over’ in this stretch barely cashed back in Week 12 between the Chiefs and Raiders as Oakland won 24-20 on a 42 total. Home underdogs on Thursday night are 1-2 SU/ATS, with the Raiders being the only winner in this situation, while the Panthers and Texans both lost in divisional matchups.

Jason Garrett’s squad covered two of their first three opportunities as a favorite, but the Cowboys have slipped up recently when laying points by posting a 1-4 ATS record in past five in the favorite role. Under Trestman, the Bears are winless as a home underdog in three tries, which includes a 38-17 loss to Green Bay in Week 4 as a two-point ‘dog.

Dallas is listed as a 3 ½-point road favorite, as the Cowboys are laying points at Soldier Field for the first time since 1998. The total is set at 51 ½, the highest on the road for Dallas this season, while the Bears are 3-1 to the ‘over’ in games with totals listed at 50 or higher. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Frigid temperatures expected for Cowboys-Bears
Justin Hartling

Temperatures are expected to drop down to 25°F at Solider Field Thursday. The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears will also need to contend with winds gusting upwards of 18 miles per hour to the southwest.

The current total for the Cowboys-Bears is 51.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Road dominance has made Cowboys good ATS play
Justin Hartling

The Dallas Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 straight up and a sterling 4-1 against the spread on the road this season. The lone blemish on Dallas' ATS mark was when they failed to cover against the Giants by only one point.

The average margin of victory for the Cowboys on the road this season is +8.4.

Dallas is currently -3.5 for their visit to Chicago Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Romo's December struggles extend to spread play
Justin Hartling

Since Tony Romo took control of the Dallas Cowboys in 2006, 'America's Team' is 10-23-1 against the spread in December. In the past three seasons, the Cowboys have only covered 31 percent of their December games (4-9 ATS).

Dallas will travel to Chicago as 3.5-point faves Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 14

Cowboys (8-4) @ Bears (5-7)—Both teams played on Thursday last week, so normal prep here; Chicago won last three series games, by 7-16-17 points. Dallas opponents were 19 of 31 on 3rd down last two games, ran 21/16 more plays than Pokes in scoring 61 points. Eagles ran for 256 yards against them last week, expect to see lot of Forte here. Bears won last two home games, both 21-13 games, after losing first three; since ’11, they’re 1-3 as home underdogs. Last five Chicago TD drives were all less than 60 yards; they were outgained by 163/105 yards in last two games. Dallas is 2-0 on grass, winning by 14-16. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-7. NFC North underdogs are 6-9. Last four Dallas road games went over total; four of five Chicago home games stayed under.

Ravens (7-5) @ Dolphins (7-5)-- Miami won last two home games, allowing no TDs on 22 drives; three of their last four games were decided by 4 or less points. Baltimore won last four series games, with three of those four played here; Ravens won last three visits here. Miami's last two series wins were both in OT. Baltimore allowed 61 points in last two games; they've allowed 8+ ypa in four of last five games, 14 first downs via penalty in last four. Short week for Fish, who allowed 277 rushing yards to 2-10 Jets Monday night; they covered four of last five games when favored. Ravens ran ball for 163.7 ypg last three weeks, are 3-3 on road, 1-1 as road dogs. Miami won special teams in nine of last ten games. Four of last five Raven games went over total; five of last six Miami games stayed under.

Steelers (7-5) @ Bengals (8-3-1)—Cincy has 1.5-game lead in AFC North after escaping 14-13 in Tampa last week; they’ve won last three games (all on road), allowing 12 ppg, allowing two TDs on last 30 drives (10 3/outs on last 21 drives). Steelers are -6 in turnovers last three games; they allowed 27.1 ppg in last seven, are 3-3 on road, beating Panthers, Titans, Jags (combined 7-28-1 record). Bengals lost six of last eight games with Steelers, with LY’s 20-10 win here their first home win over Pitt in last four years. Roethlisberger banged his hand on a helmet last week, put up big numbers despite that, but hand is wounded. Underdogs covered five of seven AFC North divisional games. Five of last six Steeler games went over total; last four Bengal games stayed under.

Colts (8-4) @ Browns (7-5)—Indy is dependable 7-2-1 as road favorite under Pagano, 3-1 this year, winning by 27-10-16 points, losing at Denver/Pittsburgh. Colts allowed 30+ points in all four losses this year; they’re 8-2 since an 0-2 start- four of their five road games were on grass. Browns lost two of last three games; ; they scored 6-7-10 points in last three losses. Cleveland is 4-2 at home; they scored 22+ points in all seven wins, a figure Indy gave up in four of last five games. Hoyer threw six picks in last three games, was yanked in Buffalo; starter for this week is unnamed at I type this. Colts won six of last seven series games, with average total of 25.2 in last five. Four of last five Indy games went over total; seven of last eight Cleveland games stayed under.

Texans (6-6) @ Jaguars (2-10)—Jax is 3-9-1 as home underdog under Bradley, 2-3 this year, losing by 27-8-14 points, with upset wins over Browns/Giants; they were down 21-3 at half to 3-9 Giants last week, scored two defensive TDs to pull game out, 25-24. Jags are 2-10 vs spread in game after their last 12 wins. Houston got swept 13-6/27-0 by Jaguars LY during their 2-14 nightmare; they had won previous five series games. Texans are 3-3 on road this year; they were favored in half those games, are 2-1 as road favorites this year, 10-8-1 in that role since ’10. Fitzpatrick threw for six TDs last week in his return to starting lineup; Jaguars are still competing, while Titans might not be. Favorites covered first six AFC South divisional games this year (3-0 on road). Five of last seven Texan games, three of last four Jax games went over total.

Giants (3-9) @ Titans (2-10)—Giants lost last seven games, outscored 74-13 in second half of last four; Titans lost last six. Giants led last two games by 10+ at the half, still lost. Tennessee was missing three starters on OL, gave up six TD passes to Fitzpatrick; they’ve allowed 88 points in last two games, 11 TDs on last 33 drives, are 1-4 at home, with only win 16-14 over 2-10 Jaguar team that upset Giants last week. Big Blue led 21-3 at half in Jax’ville LW before offense yielded two defensive scores in catastrophic loss. Six of last ten series games were decided by 4 or less points. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 7-9 vs spread. AFC South home teams are 8-10, 3-4 when dogs. Five of last six Giant games, four of last five Titan games went over total.

Panthers (3-8-1) @ Saints (5-7)—Road team won last five Saint games after losing first seven; Saints (-3) won 28-10 at Carolina in Week 9 Thursday game, holding Carolina to 231 TY, 3.8 ypa in game that was 14-nil at half. NO lost last three home games; they’re 2-4 as HFs this year, 5-8-1 vs spread in game following last 14 wins. Saints scored 35 at Pittsburgh last week without one target to star TE Graham. Carolina is 1-8-1 in last ten games, 2-4 as road dogs, losing last three away games by combined score of 114-51 (38-17 average)- they’ve got only one takeaway in last three games (-7). Panthers lost four of last five visits to Bourbon Street, with three of four losses by 10+ points. Road team covered six of first eight NFC South divisional games this season (HFs 1-3).

Buccaneers (2-10) @ Lions (8-4)—You’d think Lions would have edge with 10-day post-Thanksgiving break, but they’ve lost this game the last five years. Not sure what to make of NFL team (Bucs) driving for winning score last week but having 12 men on field for more than one play; how is that not noticed? Tampa allowed 93 points in losing its two games on carpet (1-1 vs spread) this season; they’re 4-2 as road underdogs, with only road loss by more than 8 points Thursday debacle in Atlanta in Week 3. Visitor won last four series games, with six of last nine in series decided by 4 or less points. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 7-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 6-8. 10 of last 11 Detroit games, last six Tampa Bay games stayed under total.

Rams (5-7) @ Redskins (3-9)-- Washington gave Rams two #1 picks plus more for right to draft RGIII, now he's on bench; Redskins lost last four games (1-3 vs spread), are 2-3 at home, scoring 14.3 ppg in last four (3-5 as dog, 0-1 at home). Four of Redskins' last six games were decided by 4 or less points. Rams are favored for third time this season; they're 2-4 on road, with wins by total of five points. This is first time Rams have been road favorite since 2010. St Louis won four of last six series games; this is its first visit to Maryland since '09. Rams are +7 in turnovers last three games, after being -5 in first nine. Redskin DC Haslett was once DC/interim coach of Rams. Three of last four Ram games went over total; last three Redskin home games stayed under.

Jets (2-10) @ Vikings (5-7)-- Not big fan of losing teams week after they play Monday night game. Minnesota covered five of last six games, winning two of last three at home; they're first team since '90 to block two punts for TDs in same game. Travel on short week for Jets after 16-13 loss Monday, when they ran for 277 yards but threw for only 49; Gang Green scored one TD on 20 drives in two post-bye games; they're 2-3 on road, covering one of last four- Smith is obviously not the answer at QB. Minnesota is 2-0 as a favorite this season. Jets won eight of nine series games, with six of last seven losses by 7+ points; they've won three of four visits here, with last visit in '06. Three of last four Jet games, five of last seven Viking games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 14
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 4

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

DALLAS at CHICAGO ...Dallas on 1-4 spread slide last five TY, though Cowboys 4-1 vs. line away form home. Chicago had covered last two at home after dropping previous three vs. line at Solider Field. Bears “over” 18-9-1 for Trestman but “under” 4-1 at home this season. Slight to “over,” based on extended Bears “total” trends.


Sunday, Dec. 7

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BALTIMORE at MIAMI...Dolphins 6-2-1 vs. line last nine this season, also 4-1 vs. line as host in 2014. Dolphins “under” 6-1 last seven after Jets on Monday. Ravens “over” four straight on road. Slight to Dolphins, based on recent trends.

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI...Home team has covered in six of last seven Steel games. Teams yet to meet this season, split last two years. “Unders” 4-1 last five in series though “over” in most recent meeting. Steel on 12-5 “over” run since late 2013. "Over," based on recent Steeler “totals” trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at CLEVELAND...Colts 8-2 vs. spread last ten this season. Also “over” 10-3-1 since late 2013. Browns, however, “under” four straight at home. Colts and slight to “over,” based on recent Colts trends.

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE...Jags 4-10-1 vs. line last 15 on board. Now 2-4-1 vs. line last seven at home. Though Jax beat Houston in last meeting a year ago. Jags have covered last three in series. Texans 4-2 vs. line away this season. Slight to Texans, based on team trends.

NY GIANTS at TENNESSEE...Eli 0-7 SU and 1-6 vs. line last six TY. Titans 2-8 vs. line last tene TY and 1-9-1 vs. spread last 11 in Nashville, and “over” last three TY. G-Men “over” 8-4 in 2014. “Over” and slight to Giants, based on “totals” trends and Titan home woes.

CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS...Saints now no wins covers last three at home TY after 20-0 SU and 18-1-1 marks previous 20 at Superdome with Sean Payton on sideline since 2011. Saints “over” 8-3-1 TY but “under” first game at Carolina (28-10 win). Panthers no covers last four, now 3-7 last ten vs. line TY. Saints and slight to ‘over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at DETROIT...Bucs have covered 4 of last 5 away TY. Lions “under” 12-2-1 last 15 though ver” in most recent game vs. Bears. “Under” and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.

ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON...Skins 2-7 vs. spread last nine TY, 6-14 last 20 on board. Also no covers last four at FedEx Field this season. Rams, based on Skins woes.

NY JETS at MINNESOTA...Jets 4-8 vs. line TY, yet to cover two in a row. Vikes have covered 5 of last 6 this season and 4 of last 5 at home. Vikings, based on Jets woes.

BUFFALO at DENVER...Bills “under” 10-2 in 2014. But Denver “over” 52-28-1 since late in 2009 and “over” four straight at home TY. Broncos 3-3 vs. spread as host TY but 15-7 in reg season vs. line as host since Manning arrived. Broncos and “over,” based on enduring Bronco trends.

KANSAS CITY at ARIZONA...Andy Reid 12-2 vs. line last 14 on reg season road but did get an L in last away game at Oakland. Chiefs have dropped last two after covering nine straight. KC also :"under" 7-1 last eight TYU. Arians has lost last two outings but still on 15-5-1 spread run for Cards, and is 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line as host TY. “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at OAKLAND...Niners actually 4-2 vs. line away TY and 3-1 as road chalk. Home numbers (1-5 vs. line) have been worse. Niners also “under” 4 of last 5 and 8 of 12 TY. Raiders “over” 4-1 at Coliseum TY. Slight to 49ers, based on recent trends.

SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA...Seahawks surging again with covers last 2 and 3 of last 4. They’re 6-6 vs. line TY but Pete Carroll 30-17-2 since 2012. Eagles 4-1 last five vs. number in 2014. Seahawks, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at SAN DIEGO ...Belichick 7-1 SU, 6-2 vs. line last 7 TY. Also “over” 7 of last 9 TY and 52-22-1 in reg season since 2010. Bolts however are 13-5-1 last 19 as dog. "Over" and slight to Patriots, based on Belichick trends.


Monday, Dec. 8

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ATLANTA at GREEN BAY ...Pack “over” 9-3 TY and 12-3 last 15 reg season games, also five straight wins and covers at Lambeau TY. Falcs, however, have covered last three away in departure from previous road-poor form. But they’re 0-2 as a visiting dog this season and 3-7 in role since LY (though did get late-season cover at Rodgers-less Pack last December). Pack and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

DALLAS (8 - 4) at CHICAGO (5 - 7) - 12/4/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
DALLAS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DALLAS is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Trends

DALLAS vs. CHICAGO
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Thursday Night Football'

In this weeks Thursday Night'r both the Dallas Cowboys smacked 33-10 at home by Eagles and Chicago Bears spanked 34-17 at Detroit will be looking to make amends for those Thanksgiving Day losses. The 'Boys' currently at 8-4 SU with a vig-losing 6-6 mark against the betting line have played much better on the road this season posting a perfect 5-0 record behind 30.4 points/game (4-1 ATS). Chicago not all that impressive on the campaign hit the field 5-7 SU/ATS overall, 2-3 SU/ATS at Soldier Field where Bears manage a lowly 18.6 points/contest. Before you jump on Dallas you might like to know the betting woes of the Cowboys in December. Since 2006 the Cowboys have been a disaster against the betting line posting a 10-24 record which includes 4-19 ATS when pegged as chalk. A few other betting nuggets worth pondering. Cowboys are on a 1-4 ATS skid playing Thursday, 0-3 ATS slump vs Bears and 2-10 ATS last twelve vs the NFC North.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Thursday, Dec. 4

Dallas at Chicago, 8:25 ET
Dallas: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a loss by 21 or more points
Chicago: 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against conference opponents


NFL Football Betting Trends for Sunday, Dec. 7

Baltimore at Miami, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 12-4 ATS after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game
Miami: 14-29 ATS after a 2 game road trip

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Cincinnati: 63-90 ATS (-36.0 Units) versus division opponents

Indianapolis at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 55-36 OVER (+15.4 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Cleveland: 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after a win by 21 or more points
Jacksonville: 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents

NY Giants at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
New York: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a road loss
Tennessee: 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points
New Orleans: 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less

Tampa Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Detroit: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs

St Louis at Washington, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Washington: 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

NY Jets at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
New York: 3-10 ATS off a division game
Minnesota: 10-2 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game

Buffalo at Denver, 4:05 ET
Buffalo: 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
Denver: 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a favorite

Kansas City at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders
Arizona: 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs

San Francisco at Oakland, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Oakland: 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

Seattle at Philadelphia, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 106-75 OVER (+23.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 24-11 OVER (+11.9 Units) in home games off a upset win as an underdog

New England at San Diego, 8:30 ET
New England: 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game
San Diego: 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game


NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Dec. 8

Atlanta at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Atlanta: 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog
Green Bay: 26-13 ATS in home games off a non-conference game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Maywood Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Post: 8:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 60 - Purse:$2900 - FILLIES & MARES, NON-WINNERS OF 2 RACES OR $4,000 LIFETIME` TO BE CLAIMED FOR $7,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 FRONTIER KATE 5/2


# 4 ELUSIVE RETURN 4/1


# 6 WHATA SLOWPOKE 3/1

We've got good vibrations FRONTIER KATE is going to get the top prize. The consortium knows that speed is King in harness racing. This contender will unlock our way to a nice win. This race horse looks tough considering the high class statistics. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. That 69 speed figure clocked in the last contest puts this solid standardbred in the mix in this event. ELUSIVE RETURN - Take a look at this standardbred's avg speed number of 61 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very good wager. Good for a win play just off the stellar prior class figures. Have to like this fine animal. WHATA SLOWPOKE - When Banks sends this solid standardbred out you can bet they'll hit the board, numbers show them there 66 percent of the time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 15 - Post: 10:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 73 - Purse:$3000 - NON WINNERS $200 PER START IN 2014. AE: N/W $1 IN LAST 4 OR $1000 IN LAST 5 OR $1400 IN LAST 6 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $15,000 IN 2014. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 ELDON MURRAY 2/1


# 3 KING RICHARD 8/1


# 2 SHOCKBYELECTRIC 4/1

Hey, listen up! ELDON MURRAY is the knowledgeable bet if you like to win. He's squaring off in good form, recording huge speed figs. An excellent selection. A great class horse should not be be ignored. With an average class rating of 81 all signs say it's go time. Any time a horse is entered with this driver-trainer combo there's a really good probability for some nice returns. KING RICHARD - Been going to post with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 77). Main knows this entrant well. Outstanding in the money history when starting as a team. SHOCKBYELECTRIC - The 2 post is on fire here at Northfield Park. More wins than you would expect.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 65

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 MORNING HEADACHE 3/1


# 12 SIRO FLOOZIE 7/2


# 8 OUR DAY IN COURT 5/1


MORNING HEADACHE is the best bet in this race. Has run quite well when travelling a dirt route race. Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager for this race. Has to be given consideration based on the very good speed rating posted in the last contest. SIRO FLOOZIE - With a strong jockey who has won at a very good 30 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top picks. Will probably compete well in the early pace contest which bodes well with this field. OUR DAY IN COURT - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Englehart running at this distance are the top in this group. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group recently.