StatSystems Sports, CFB & NFL Report 12/23/10
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/23
NFL & NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• HOTTEST TICKET IN TOWN! •••
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No one really thinks of the Poinsettia Bowl as a standout bowl but this game has delivered some excellent match-ups in recent years with Utah and California last year, TCU and Boise State in 2008 and Navy against Utah in 2007. This year the match-up may not get much of a pulse on the national radar but it will be a hot ticket in town with the hometown Aztecs coming off a resurgent season and the great Navy presence in the city. There will not be much of a break for the Midshipmen with just eleven days after its rivalry match-up with Army and it is hard to say if that will be an advantage or a hindrance.
San Diego State reached 8-4 this season and while they beat just one winning team, close losses to TCU, Utah, and Missouri helped to build some credibility. Brady Hoke was a hot candidate for other coaching jobs particularly at Minnesota but he has re-signed with San Diego State, something that should be a boost and comfort to his players working through bowl practices. Playing at home is an advantage in bowl games and those teams are 7-3 S/U and ATS since 2003.
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*** THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
CAROLINA (2-12) @ PITTSBURGH (10-4)
Kickoff, 8:20 p.m. EDT Line: Steelers -14/ O/U 37
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to the playoffs despite having lost their last game, while the Carolina Panthers own the league's worst record yet are coming off a rare win in their most recent outing. That's just the way it's been during this unpredictable NFL season. The Steelers will be out to restore a sense of normalcy when the AFC North co- leaders welcome the lowly Panthers to Heinz Field this Thursday for a Week 16 battle between teams currently residing on opposite ends of the football spectrum.
Pittsburgh had vaulted to the top of the AFC North pack on the strength of a four-game win streak highlighted by a hard-fought road victory over its chief competition for the division crown, the Baltimore Ravens, in early December. The Steelers no longer stand alone in first place, however, after coming out on the short end of a 22-17 decision to a desperate and determined New York Jets squad last Sunday at Heinz Field and the Ravens coming through with a critical triumph in their matchup with the reigning Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints.
Though Pittsburgh and Baltimore sport identical 10-4 marks heading into the regular season's final two weeks, the Steelers do own a superior record in division play, meaning the Black and Gold would claim both the AFC North title and a much-desired opening-round bye in the upcoming conference playoffs if they can defeat the Panthers and follow up with a win at Cleveland in the finale. A Steelers' win on Thursday coupled with a Baltimore loss in its Week 16 venture at Cleveland would also clinch the division and a postseason bye.
Achieving the first part of that equation doesn't appear to be too much of a problem, judging on past results. Carolina is a woeful 2-12 on the season and hasn't won any of its six road games thus far, with four of those setbacks coming by double digit margins. The Panthers also rank at the bottom of the NFL in scoring and both total and passing offense and will be going up against a fearsome Pittsburgh defense that's tied for the league lead in fewest points allowed and rates third overall in least yards surrendered.
Carolina will be entering the Steel City on a high note, however, after snapping a rough stretch of seven straight losses with last weekend's 19-12 besting of the declining Arizona Cardinals. The Panthers were able to get off the schneid by unleashing a potent ground attack spearheaded by running back Jonathan Stewart and mixing in a strong defensive effort that limited the punchless Cardinals to 218 total yards. Stewart is averaging 115 rushing yards and a healthy 5.9 yards per carry in four games since returning from a concussion, but the powerful back figures to be challenged by a smothering Steelers stop unit that's holding the opposition to a league-low 63.4 yards per game on the ground.
• SERIES HISTORY
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Pittsburgh holds a 3-1 edge in its all-time series with Carolina, and has won each of its last three head-to-head meetings with the Panthers. The Steelers took a 37-3 road decision in the most recent matchup, in 2006, and were 30-14 winners when the clubs last met in the Steel City, in 2002. The Panthers' only win in the series was an 18-14 victory in 1996. Carolina head coach John Fox is 0-1 against the Steelers as a head coach, while Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin will be meeting both Fox and the Panthers for the first time as a head man.
• WHEN THE PANTHERS HAVE THE BALL
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Don't expect Carolina to stop trying to do what it does best on Thursday in spite of the daunting task that lies ahead. The Panthers have run the football with authority over the past month, with Stewart (668 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 3 total TD) and shifty sidekick Mike Goodson (435 rushing yards, 3 TD, 36 receptions) the main cogs of an offense that's averaged an impressive 167.8 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks and backed up a punishing 212-yard effort on the ground against Atlanta in Week 14 with last Sunday's 177-yard output versus the Cardinals.
Carolina's still going to have to show at least a semblance of a passing game in order to be effective, though, and that's an area in which the team has often struggled with rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen (1304 passing yards, 2 TD, 7 INT) at the controls. The former Notre Dame star did have his best day as a pro last week, though, completing an efficient 13-of-19 throws for 141 yards and a touchdown while not committing a turnover. Much like the quarterback position, the Panthers have been plagued by inexperienced at wide receiver, where rookies David Gettis (32 receptions, 3 TD) and Brandon LaFell (34 receptions, 1 TD) have each been pressed into key roles opposite still-capable veteran Steve Smith (43 receptions, 2 TD).
Carolina's recent rushing success will be put to the test by the swarming Steelers, who hadn't permitted more than 103 yards on the ground in a game until the Jets ran for 106 last Sunday. Not having Polamalu (62 tackles, 1 sack, 6 INT) available may help explain that drop-off from the defense's usual high standards, but Pittsburgh still has a wealth of stout stoppers in place even if the difference-making safety is again held out.
The inside linebacker duo of Lawrence Timmons (121 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) and James Farrior (100 tackles, 5 sacks) may be the best in football, while nose tackle Casey Hampton (18 tackles, 1 sack) and end Brett Keisel (26 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) are outstanding space eaters who enable the playmakers behind them to roam free. Look for crafty coordinator Dick LeBeau to dial up plenty of blitz packages designed to both rattle and confuse the still developing Clausen, with outside linebackers James Harrison (89 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 INT) and LaMarr Woodley (46 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 2 INT) heavily a part of those plans. The exceptional pairing has accounted for nearly half of the Steelers' total of 40 sacks, tied for third-most in the league.
• WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
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The Pittsburgh offense benefits from its balance, blending the passing talents and field presence of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (2600 passing yards, 14 TD, 5 INT) with the NFL's eighth-ranked running game (122.1 ypg) to form what can be a difficult combination to defend. Add in the field-stretching skills of speedy wide receiver Mike Wallace (53 receptions, 1048 yards, 8 TD), who's averaging nearly 20 yards per catch and burned a well-regarded New York secondary for 102 yards on seven grabs a week ago, and it's safe to say the Panthers may not have an easy time on their hands on Thursday.
Protecting Roethlisberger has usually been the Steelers' biggest issue, as the valued field general has been sacked 15 times over the last four weeks, and he'll need adequate time to survey the field and connect with Wallace and four-time Pro Bowler Hines Ward (51 receptions, 4 TD), the preferred targets among a solid receiving corps that's expected to get tight end Heath Miller (33 receptions, 1 TD) back from a concussion that sidelined him the past two games. Rookie wideout Emmanuel Sanders (23 receptions, 2 TD) helped offset Miller's absence by posting career bests of seven catches and 78 receiving yards against the Jets, while workhorse running back Rashard Mendenhall (1173 rushing yards, 10 TD, 20 receptions) contributed his fourth 100-yard day of the season in the loss.
Carolina's defense is fresh off its best showing of the season, with linebackers James Anderson (115 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Jon Beason (104 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) organizing a charge that held the Cardinals to 43 rushing yards last week and the team sacking rookie quarterback John Skelton three times. One of those takedowns came from end Charles Johnson (57 tackles, 9.5 sacks), giving the standout pass rusher a total of six over his last five games.
His ability to create pressure, along with the steady play of young secondary members such as cornerback Captain Munnerlyn (39 tackles, 3 INT, 11 PD) and strong safety Charles Godfrey (75 tackles, 5 INT) is a big reason why the Panthers rank fifth in the NFL in pass efficiency defense and have come up with 17 interceptions for the year. Containing the run has been more of a problem, with the unit having yielded an average of 126.2 yards per game on the ground at the moment (23rd overall).
• PREGAME NOTES
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The Steelers loss on Sunday to the Jets cost them an outside shot at home field throughout the AFC playoffs but the North crown and a first-round bye is well within their grasp. A win tonight and next week at Cleveland would give Pitt that coveted No. 2 slot. With most fans off on Friday, we certainly don’t think that the outmanned Panthers will spoil this Thursday night party but we should point out Pittsburgh’s 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS mark on this day of the week.
As it is, the Panthers are a perfect 9-0 ATS as double digit dogs with revenge and a nail-driving 12-2-1 ATS off a SU and ATS win versus a foe off a SU favorite loss. With the Steelers 14-0 SU at home in non-division games off a SU and ATS home loss, we don’t foresee any nails hitting Heinz Field this evening. "However, we do feel HC John Fox and his 10-6 SU, 12-4 ATS mark as a road dog from Game Twelve out, including 4-0 SU and ATS off a SU victory, may keep this one very interesting longer than expected!"
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Pittsburgh by 13; O/U 37
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Pittsburgh -14.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -15.31
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--PITTSBURGH is 7-20 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.6, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) vs. very bad offensive teams - scoring 14 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 19.4, OPPONENT 15.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 42-22 ATS (+17.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 21.9, OPPONENT 21.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 21.4, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 23.7, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PITTSBURGH is 43-24 OVER (+16.6 Units) vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.5, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 33-17 OVER (+14.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.4, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 28-10 OVER (+16.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 20.7, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--CAROLINA is 79-51 against the 1rst half line (+22.8 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 10.3, OPPONENT 10.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--CAROLINA is 62-36 against the 1rst half line (+22.4 Units) as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 9.6, OPPONENT 10.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--CAROLINA is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.5, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.1, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PITTSBURGH is 56-35 OVER (+17.5 Units) the 1rst half total after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 11.9, OPPONENT 9.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 29-11 OVER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 11.5, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 22-6 OVER (+15.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 10.9, OPPONENT 11.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (CAROLINA) - outgained by opponent by 40 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(30-8 since 1983.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (9-29)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 12.9
The average score in these games was: Team 16.8, Opponent 25.5 (Average point differential = -8.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (CAROLINA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(45-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +25.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.3, Opponent 11.3 (Total first half points scored = 23.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-11).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (85-60).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (151-133).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CAROLINA) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, pathetic team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game.
(49-20 since 1983.) (71.0%, +27 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 38.7
The average score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 27.8 (Total points scored = 46)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 34 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team vs the 1rst half line (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(48-20 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.6%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.7, Opponent 8 (Average first half point differential = +5.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-10).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (84-46).
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*** POINSETTIA BOWL ***
NAVY (9-3) @ SAN DIEGO ST (8-4)
Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Kickoff, 8:00 p.m. EDT Line: S.D. St -5 / O/U 60
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The Navy Midshipmen take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. Courtesy of a 9-3 record, which includes a current four-game win streak, Navy is making its school-record eighth consecutive bowl appearance. The run is rather remarkable when considering the Mids had played in back-to-back bowl games just once in school history (1980-81) prior to the current streak. Overall, this is Navy's 17th bowl appearance and it owns a 7-8-1 mark in its prior showings.
As for the Aztecs, they are one of the most improved teams in the nation and they were rewarded with their first bowl invite since 1998. "We are excited to be playing a bowl game here in San Diego in front of our great students, fans and community," Head Coach Brady Hoke said. SDSU's eight wins are twice as many as the previous year, and the program has already guaranteed itself a winning season for the first time in 12 years. The Aztecs, who are 4-4 all-time in the postseason, are now out to cap their terrific campaign with their first bowl victory since 1969.
SDSU and Navy have met twice previously, with the Aztecs claiming victories in both 1994 and 1997. The Navy offense revolves around an option attack that has the team ranked fifth in the nation in rushing with an average of 288.9 ypg. The Mids have scored 36 TDs via the run compared to just 12 through the air. QB Ricky Dobbs is the driving force behind the Navy offense and he can get the job done both with his arm and legs. "He's done so many things for this football team," said offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper.
"I've coached a lot of quarterbacks here. They've all been great. Ricky's in a class by himself." The leader of this football team, Dobbs tops the roster with 860 yards and 13 TDs on the ground. He is also effective when given the opportunity to use his arm, passing for 1,380 yards and 12 scores. Greg Jones serves as Dobbs' main target down the field, and he has amassed 577 receiving yards and four TDs, while Alexander Teich is second on the team in rushing with 825 yards and five scores. The Mids have lacked some consistency on defense, but the unit has still done a decent job in keeping opponents to 22.3 ppg.
The group, though is susceptible to both the run (156.4 ypg) and pass (220.4 ypg), and the unit has permitted 20 TDs through the air compared to 13 on the ground. Creating turnovers has been an area of strength for this defense, which has recorded 23 takeaways, including 16 fumble recoveries. The unit even has 18 sacks to its credit, so don't be surprised to see the group come up with a big play in this game. Safety Wyatt Middleton is a talented player on the Navy defense, and he is tied for the national lead with five fumble recoveries, while ranking second on the team with 81 stops. He trails Tyler Simmons, who has produced an impressive 124 stops, to go with three forced and recovered fumbles.
For the Aztecs, they possess a high-powered offensive attack that is producing 35.0 ppg and 448.8 total ypg. The strength of the unit comes from the passing game, which is generating 297.0 ypg. QB Ryan Lindley has turned in quite a campaign for SDSU, as he has thrown for 3,554 yards and 26 scores. He, however, can be a little erratic at times, completing just 56.5 percent of his attempts with 14 INTs. Lindley has two outstanding receivers at his disposal in Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson. Brown, who was voted team MVP, leads the squad with 1,187 yards and nine TDs, while Sampson follows with 1,175 yards and eight scores.
"I wasn't expecting it," said Brown when asked about being named team MVP. "There are a whole lot of guys on this team who could have won that award. I can't say enough about my teammates that I go to battle with. I'm not too big on individual awards, but it was an honor to get that from my teammates." The Aztecs also have a serious threat in the backfield, as Ronnie Hillman is the Mountain West Conference's Freshman of the Year. Hillman, who had five games of 150 yards or more, set a league record with 1,304 yards on the ground and 14 TDs.
On defense, SDSU is giving nearly the same amount of points as Navy on the season, allowing 22.8 total ypg. The Aztecs, though, are doing a little better versus the run (141.9 ypg) as well as the pass (209.8 ypg). Getting to the opposing QB is a real area of strength for the Aztecs, as they have recorded 28 sacks this year. SDSU also ranks fifth in the country in tackles for a loss per game at 7.58. That has helped offset the mere 15 turnovers forced by the defense. Miles Burris has been a real force for the SDSU defensive unit and he leads the way with 74 stops, 19 TFLs and 9.5 sacks. Leon McFadden is another player worth noting, as he has 54 stops and a team-best 12 PBU.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Home may be where the heart is but it’s probably not where the minds of San Diego State’s players or many of their fans are at this time. Their reward for their first winning season in 12 years is a five-mile trip down Interstate 8 to Qualcomm Stadium, a place where they have already suited up six times this season. Talk about NOT being part of the bowl experience! The Aztecs won’t even get a chance to steal a couple of towels from say a Detroit Holiday Inn if they were playing in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl later in the week. "Home field advantage is nice, you say - Think again!" Ken Niumatalolo’s Middies will be welcomed by plenty of Midshipmen on leave from nearby San Diego Naval Military Base.
Thus, the value certainly appears to be with the ‘visitors’. If this game were played on a neutral field, the line would be close to pick so there’s really only way to look in this home versus home-away-from-home matchup. The Annapolis Academy has the full support of our 'Rock-Steady' database as well as it notes: military bowlers are a commanding 17-3 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition. We should also point out that the Middies are a determined 41-13 ATS as road dogs, including 20-4 ATS off a SU win while Aztecs HC Brady Hoke is just 7-21 SU versus .666 or greater opposition.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Diego St by 2; O/U 67
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Diego St -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Diego St -0.73
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO ST is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 27.1, OPPONENT 34.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 61-29 ATS (+29.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 27.5, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 5*)
--NAVY is 44-16 ATS (+26.4 Units) as a road underdog since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 22.5, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--NAVY is 32-14 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 23.4, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 23.9, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO ST is 29-12 OVER (+16.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 32.7, OPPONENT 36.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 28-7 OVER (+20.3 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 29.9, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO ST is 18-33 against the 1rst half line (-18.3 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 13.4, OPPONENT 15.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO ST is 16-30 against the 1rst half line (-17.0 Units) off a home win since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 10.2, OPPONENT 15.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 42-23 against the 1rst half line (+16.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 14.8, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 16.6, OPPONENT 7.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO ST is 23-6 UNDER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 9.3, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO ST is 26-9 UNDER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 15.8, OPPONENT 11.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (SAN DIEGO ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(25-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (89.3%, +21.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 64.5
The average score in these games was: Team 43.6, Opponent 29.7 (Total points scored = 73.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (58.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (30-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO ST) - good team (outgain opp. by 50-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 50 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game.
(44-15 since 1992.) (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 15.7 (Average first half point differential = -3.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (35-10).
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STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/23
NFL & NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL & CFB *****
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••• HOTTEST TICKET IN TOWN! •••
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No one really thinks of the Poinsettia Bowl as a standout bowl but this game has delivered some excellent match-ups in recent years with Utah and California last year, TCU and Boise State in 2008 and Navy against Utah in 2007. This year the match-up may not get much of a pulse on the national radar but it will be a hot ticket in town with the hometown Aztecs coming off a resurgent season and the great Navy presence in the city. There will not be much of a break for the Midshipmen with just eleven days after its rivalry match-up with Army and it is hard to say if that will be an advantage or a hindrance.
San Diego State reached 8-4 this season and while they beat just one winning team, close losses to TCU, Utah, and Missouri helped to build some credibility. Brady Hoke was a hot candidate for other coaching jobs particularly at Minnesota but he has re-signed with San Diego State, something that should be a boost and comfort to his players working through bowl practices. Playing at home is an advantage in bowl games and those teams are 7-3 S/U and ATS since 2003.
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*** THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
CAROLINA (2-12) @ PITTSBURGH (10-4)
Kickoff, 8:20 p.m. EDT Line: Steelers -14/ O/U 37
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to the playoffs despite having lost their last game, while the Carolina Panthers own the league's worst record yet are coming off a rare win in their most recent outing. That's just the way it's been during this unpredictable NFL season. The Steelers will be out to restore a sense of normalcy when the AFC North co- leaders welcome the lowly Panthers to Heinz Field this Thursday for a Week 16 battle between teams currently residing on opposite ends of the football spectrum.
Pittsburgh had vaulted to the top of the AFC North pack on the strength of a four-game win streak highlighted by a hard-fought road victory over its chief competition for the division crown, the Baltimore Ravens, in early December. The Steelers no longer stand alone in first place, however, after coming out on the short end of a 22-17 decision to a desperate and determined New York Jets squad last Sunday at Heinz Field and the Ravens coming through with a critical triumph in their matchup with the reigning Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints.
Though Pittsburgh and Baltimore sport identical 10-4 marks heading into the regular season's final two weeks, the Steelers do own a superior record in division play, meaning the Black and Gold would claim both the AFC North title and a much-desired opening-round bye in the upcoming conference playoffs if they can defeat the Panthers and follow up with a win at Cleveland in the finale. A Steelers' win on Thursday coupled with a Baltimore loss in its Week 16 venture at Cleveland would also clinch the division and a postseason bye.
Achieving the first part of that equation doesn't appear to be too much of a problem, judging on past results. Carolina is a woeful 2-12 on the season and hasn't won any of its six road games thus far, with four of those setbacks coming by double digit margins. The Panthers also rank at the bottom of the NFL in scoring and both total and passing offense and will be going up against a fearsome Pittsburgh defense that's tied for the league lead in fewest points allowed and rates third overall in least yards surrendered.
Carolina will be entering the Steel City on a high note, however, after snapping a rough stretch of seven straight losses with last weekend's 19-12 besting of the declining Arizona Cardinals. The Panthers were able to get off the schneid by unleashing a potent ground attack spearheaded by running back Jonathan Stewart and mixing in a strong defensive effort that limited the punchless Cardinals to 218 total yards. Stewart is averaging 115 rushing yards and a healthy 5.9 yards per carry in four games since returning from a concussion, but the powerful back figures to be challenged by a smothering Steelers stop unit that's holding the opposition to a league-low 63.4 yards per game on the ground.
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
Pittsburgh holds a 3-1 edge in its all-time series with Carolina, and has won each of its last three head-to-head meetings with the Panthers. The Steelers took a 37-3 road decision in the most recent matchup, in 2006, and were 30-14 winners when the clubs last met in the Steel City, in 2002. The Panthers' only win in the series was an 18-14 victory in 1996. Carolina head coach John Fox is 0-1 against the Steelers as a head coach, while Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin will be meeting both Fox and the Panthers for the first time as a head man.
• WHEN THE PANTHERS HAVE THE BALL
-------------------------------------------------
Don't expect Carolina to stop trying to do what it does best on Thursday in spite of the daunting task that lies ahead. The Panthers have run the football with authority over the past month, with Stewart (668 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 3 total TD) and shifty sidekick Mike Goodson (435 rushing yards, 3 TD, 36 receptions) the main cogs of an offense that's averaged an impressive 167.8 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks and backed up a punishing 212-yard effort on the ground against Atlanta in Week 14 with last Sunday's 177-yard output versus the Cardinals.
Carolina's still going to have to show at least a semblance of a passing game in order to be effective, though, and that's an area in which the team has often struggled with rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen (1304 passing yards, 2 TD, 7 INT) at the controls. The former Notre Dame star did have his best day as a pro last week, though, completing an efficient 13-of-19 throws for 141 yards and a touchdown while not committing a turnover. Much like the quarterback position, the Panthers have been plagued by inexperienced at wide receiver, where rookies David Gettis (32 receptions, 3 TD) and Brandon LaFell (34 receptions, 1 TD) have each been pressed into key roles opposite still-capable veteran Steve Smith (43 receptions, 2 TD).
Carolina's recent rushing success will be put to the test by the swarming Steelers, who hadn't permitted more than 103 yards on the ground in a game until the Jets ran for 106 last Sunday. Not having Polamalu (62 tackles, 1 sack, 6 INT) available may help explain that drop-off from the defense's usual high standards, but Pittsburgh still has a wealth of stout stoppers in place even if the difference-making safety is again held out.
The inside linebacker duo of Lawrence Timmons (121 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) and James Farrior (100 tackles, 5 sacks) may be the best in football, while nose tackle Casey Hampton (18 tackles, 1 sack) and end Brett Keisel (26 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) are outstanding space eaters who enable the playmakers behind them to roam free. Look for crafty coordinator Dick LeBeau to dial up plenty of blitz packages designed to both rattle and confuse the still developing Clausen, with outside linebackers James Harrison (89 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 INT) and LaMarr Woodley (46 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 2 INT) heavily a part of those plans. The exceptional pairing has accounted for nearly half of the Steelers' total of 40 sacks, tied for third-most in the league.
• WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
-----------------------------------------------
The Pittsburgh offense benefits from its balance, blending the passing talents and field presence of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (2600 passing yards, 14 TD, 5 INT) with the NFL's eighth-ranked running game (122.1 ypg) to form what can be a difficult combination to defend. Add in the field-stretching skills of speedy wide receiver Mike Wallace (53 receptions, 1048 yards, 8 TD), who's averaging nearly 20 yards per catch and burned a well-regarded New York secondary for 102 yards on seven grabs a week ago, and it's safe to say the Panthers may not have an easy time on their hands on Thursday.
Protecting Roethlisberger has usually been the Steelers' biggest issue, as the valued field general has been sacked 15 times over the last four weeks, and he'll need adequate time to survey the field and connect with Wallace and four-time Pro Bowler Hines Ward (51 receptions, 4 TD), the preferred targets among a solid receiving corps that's expected to get tight end Heath Miller (33 receptions, 1 TD) back from a concussion that sidelined him the past two games. Rookie wideout Emmanuel Sanders (23 receptions, 2 TD) helped offset Miller's absence by posting career bests of seven catches and 78 receiving yards against the Jets, while workhorse running back Rashard Mendenhall (1173 rushing yards, 10 TD, 20 receptions) contributed his fourth 100-yard day of the season in the loss.
Carolina's defense is fresh off its best showing of the season, with linebackers James Anderson (115 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Jon Beason (104 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) organizing a charge that held the Cardinals to 43 rushing yards last week and the team sacking rookie quarterback John Skelton three times. One of those takedowns came from end Charles Johnson (57 tackles, 9.5 sacks), giving the standout pass rusher a total of six over his last five games.
His ability to create pressure, along with the steady play of young secondary members such as cornerback Captain Munnerlyn (39 tackles, 3 INT, 11 PD) and strong safety Charles Godfrey (75 tackles, 5 INT) is a big reason why the Panthers rank fifth in the NFL in pass efficiency defense and have come up with 17 interceptions for the year. Containing the run has been more of a problem, with the unit having yielded an average of 126.2 yards per game on the ground at the moment (23rd overall).
• PREGAME NOTES
------------------------
The Steelers loss on Sunday to the Jets cost them an outside shot at home field throughout the AFC playoffs but the North crown and a first-round bye is well within their grasp. A win tonight and next week at Cleveland would give Pitt that coveted No. 2 slot. With most fans off on Friday, we certainly don’t think that the outmanned Panthers will spoil this Thursday night party but we should point out Pittsburgh’s 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS mark on this day of the week.
As it is, the Panthers are a perfect 9-0 ATS as double digit dogs with revenge and a nail-driving 12-2-1 ATS off a SU and ATS win versus a foe off a SU favorite loss. With the Steelers 14-0 SU at home in non-division games off a SU and ATS home loss, we don’t foresee any nails hitting Heinz Field this evening. "However, we do feel HC John Fox and his 10-6 SU, 12-4 ATS mark as a road dog from Game Twelve out, including 4-0 SU and ATS off a SU victory, may keep this one very interesting longer than expected!"
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Pittsburgh by 13; O/U 37
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Pittsburgh -14.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -15.31
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PITTSBURGH is 7-20 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.6, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) vs. very bad offensive teams - scoring 14 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 19.4, OPPONENT 15.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 42-22 ATS (+17.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 21.9, OPPONENT 21.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 21.4, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 23.7, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--PITTSBURGH is 43-24 OVER (+16.6 Units) vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.5, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 33-17 OVER (+14.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.4, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 28-10 OVER (+16.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 20.7, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CAROLINA is 79-51 against the 1rst half line (+22.8 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 10.3, OPPONENT 10.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--CAROLINA is 62-36 against the 1rst half line (+22.4 Units) as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 9.6, OPPONENT 10.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--CAROLINA is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.5, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.1, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PITTSBURGH is 56-35 OVER (+17.5 Units) the 1rst half total after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 11.9, OPPONENT 9.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 29-11 OVER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 11.5, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAROLINA is 22-6 OVER (+15.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 10.9, OPPONENT 11.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (CAROLINA) - outgained by opponent by 40 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(30-8 since 1983.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (9-29)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 12.9
The average score in these games was: Team 16.8, Opponent 25.5 (Average point differential = -8.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (CAROLINA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(45-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +25.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.3, Opponent 11.3 (Total first half points scored = 23.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-11).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (85-60).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (151-133).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CAROLINA) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, pathetic team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game.
(49-20 since 1983.) (71.0%, +27 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 38.7
The average score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 27.8 (Total points scored = 46)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 34 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team vs the 1rst half line (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(48-20 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.6%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.7, Opponent 8 (Average first half point differential = +5.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-10).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (84-46).
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*** POINSETTIA BOWL ***
NAVY (9-3) @ SAN DIEGO ST (8-4)
Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Kickoff, 8:00 p.m. EDT Line: S.D. St -5 / O/U 60
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The Navy Midshipmen take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. Courtesy of a 9-3 record, which includes a current four-game win streak, Navy is making its school-record eighth consecutive bowl appearance. The run is rather remarkable when considering the Mids had played in back-to-back bowl games just once in school history (1980-81) prior to the current streak. Overall, this is Navy's 17th bowl appearance and it owns a 7-8-1 mark in its prior showings.
As for the Aztecs, they are one of the most improved teams in the nation and they were rewarded with their first bowl invite since 1998. "We are excited to be playing a bowl game here in San Diego in front of our great students, fans and community," Head Coach Brady Hoke said. SDSU's eight wins are twice as many as the previous year, and the program has already guaranteed itself a winning season for the first time in 12 years. The Aztecs, who are 4-4 all-time in the postseason, are now out to cap their terrific campaign with their first bowl victory since 1969.
SDSU and Navy have met twice previously, with the Aztecs claiming victories in both 1994 and 1997. The Navy offense revolves around an option attack that has the team ranked fifth in the nation in rushing with an average of 288.9 ypg. The Mids have scored 36 TDs via the run compared to just 12 through the air. QB Ricky Dobbs is the driving force behind the Navy offense and he can get the job done both with his arm and legs. "He's done so many things for this football team," said offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper.
"I've coached a lot of quarterbacks here. They've all been great. Ricky's in a class by himself." The leader of this football team, Dobbs tops the roster with 860 yards and 13 TDs on the ground. He is also effective when given the opportunity to use his arm, passing for 1,380 yards and 12 scores. Greg Jones serves as Dobbs' main target down the field, and he has amassed 577 receiving yards and four TDs, while Alexander Teich is second on the team in rushing with 825 yards and five scores. The Mids have lacked some consistency on defense, but the unit has still done a decent job in keeping opponents to 22.3 ppg.
The group, though is susceptible to both the run (156.4 ypg) and pass (220.4 ypg), and the unit has permitted 20 TDs through the air compared to 13 on the ground. Creating turnovers has been an area of strength for this defense, which has recorded 23 takeaways, including 16 fumble recoveries. The unit even has 18 sacks to its credit, so don't be surprised to see the group come up with a big play in this game. Safety Wyatt Middleton is a talented player on the Navy defense, and he is tied for the national lead with five fumble recoveries, while ranking second on the team with 81 stops. He trails Tyler Simmons, who has produced an impressive 124 stops, to go with three forced and recovered fumbles.
For the Aztecs, they possess a high-powered offensive attack that is producing 35.0 ppg and 448.8 total ypg. The strength of the unit comes from the passing game, which is generating 297.0 ypg. QB Ryan Lindley has turned in quite a campaign for SDSU, as he has thrown for 3,554 yards and 26 scores. He, however, can be a little erratic at times, completing just 56.5 percent of his attempts with 14 INTs. Lindley has two outstanding receivers at his disposal in Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson. Brown, who was voted team MVP, leads the squad with 1,187 yards and nine TDs, while Sampson follows with 1,175 yards and eight scores.
"I wasn't expecting it," said Brown when asked about being named team MVP. "There are a whole lot of guys on this team who could have won that award. I can't say enough about my teammates that I go to battle with. I'm not too big on individual awards, but it was an honor to get that from my teammates." The Aztecs also have a serious threat in the backfield, as Ronnie Hillman is the Mountain West Conference's Freshman of the Year. Hillman, who had five games of 150 yards or more, set a league record with 1,304 yards on the ground and 14 TDs.
On defense, SDSU is giving nearly the same amount of points as Navy on the season, allowing 22.8 total ypg. The Aztecs, though, are doing a little better versus the run (141.9 ypg) as well as the pass (209.8 ypg). Getting to the opposing QB is a real area of strength for the Aztecs, as they have recorded 28 sacks this year. SDSU also ranks fifth in the country in tackles for a loss per game at 7.58. That has helped offset the mere 15 turnovers forced by the defense. Miles Burris has been a real force for the SDSU defensive unit and he leads the way with 74 stops, 19 TFLs and 9.5 sacks. Leon McFadden is another player worth noting, as he has 54 stops and a team-best 12 PBU.
• PREGAME NOTES
------------------------
Home may be where the heart is but it’s probably not where the minds of San Diego State’s players or many of their fans are at this time. Their reward for their first winning season in 12 years is a five-mile trip down Interstate 8 to Qualcomm Stadium, a place where they have already suited up six times this season. Talk about NOT being part of the bowl experience! The Aztecs won’t even get a chance to steal a couple of towels from say a Detroit Holiday Inn if they were playing in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl later in the week. "Home field advantage is nice, you say - Think again!" Ken Niumatalolo’s Middies will be welcomed by plenty of Midshipmen on leave from nearby San Diego Naval Military Base.
Thus, the value certainly appears to be with the ‘visitors’. If this game were played on a neutral field, the line would be close to pick so there’s really only way to look in this home versus home-away-from-home matchup. The Annapolis Academy has the full support of our 'Rock-Steady' database as well as it notes: military bowlers are a commanding 17-3 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition. We should also point out that the Middies are a determined 41-13 ATS as road dogs, including 20-4 ATS off a SU win while Aztecs HC Brady Hoke is just 7-21 SU versus .666 or greater opposition.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Diego St by 2; O/U 67
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Diego St -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Diego St -0.73
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--SAN DIEGO ST is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 27.1, OPPONENT 34.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 61-29 ATS (+29.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 27.5, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 5*)
--NAVY is 44-16 ATS (+26.4 Units) as a road underdog since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 22.5, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--NAVY is 32-14 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 23.4, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 23.9, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--SAN DIEGO ST is 29-12 OVER (+16.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 32.7, OPPONENT 36.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 28-7 OVER (+20.3 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 29.9, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--SAN DIEGO ST is 18-33 against the 1rst half line (-18.3 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 13.4, OPPONENT 15.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO ST is 16-30 against the 1rst half line (-17.0 Units) off a home win since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 10.2, OPPONENT 15.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 42-23 against the 1rst half line (+16.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 14.8, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NAVY is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 16.6, OPPONENT 7.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--SAN DIEGO ST is 23-6 UNDER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 9.3, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO ST is 26-9 UNDER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 15.8, OPPONENT 11.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (SAN DIEGO ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(25-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (89.3%, +21.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 64.5
The average score in these games was: Team 43.6, Opponent 29.7 (Total points scored = 73.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (58.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (30-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO ST) - good team (outgain opp. by 50-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 50 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game.
(44-15 since 1992.) (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 15.7 (Average first half point differential = -3.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (35-10).
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yesterday ez winner with texas , today , even ezier play on baylor - 3 @)
StatSystems Sports NBA Report, Thursday 12/23/10
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/23
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• OUT OF GAS! •••
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The Bucks caught the Lakers in a big letdown spot and took full advantage of it. With Milwaukee sending out just nine healthy players and the Lakers rolling along on a five-game win streak, the Bucks hit better than 50 percent of their shots from the floor for only the third time this year to drill L.A. 98-79. The 5-foot-5 Earl Boykins canned four treys and finished with 22 points and John Salmons added 20 for the Bucks, who snapped a three-game slide.
"They usually always make a run in the fourth quarter," Boykins eloquently told the press. "We were just trying to stay in front for as long as possible. If you play with effort and belief, you can do anything." That’s some advice the Kings could use. Sacto has dropped 14 of its last 15 straight up and five of the last six against the spread after they ran out of gas in overtime, losing 117-109 to Golden State as a 3-point favorite.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
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***** THURSDAY, DECEMBER 23RD NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Miami won 12 of last 13 games; they're 7-3 as a road favorite.
-- Spurs won their last ten games; they're 3-0 as an underdog.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Magic lost four in row, eight of last nine games.
-- Sacramento lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread). Bucks lost three of last four games, they're 0-4 as a road favorite.
-- Suns lost five of their last seven games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Spurs are 3-1 if they played the night before.
• TOTALS
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-- Under is 9-3 in last twelve Orlando games.
-- Three of Kings' last four games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in Miami's last ten games.
• QUICK HITS
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--SAN ANTONIO @ ORLANDO, 8:00 PM ET TNT SAN ANTONIO: 73-47 ATS off 3+ ATS losses. ORLANDO: 0-7 ATS off SU loss as favorite.
--MILWAUKEE @ SACRAMENTO, 10:00 PM ET MILWAUKEE: 18-7 ATS Away off SU win. SACRAMENTO: 10-23 ATS as home dog.
--MIAMI @ PHOENIX, 10:30 PM ET TNT MIAMI: 24-12 Under Away if favored last game. PHOENIX: 42-24 ATS after allowing 105+ pts.
• NOTES & TIPS
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--With the team struggling and frustration mounting, Charlotte Bobcats coach Larry Brown resigned Wednesday after meeting with team owner Michael Jordan. A successor was not immediately named, though former Charlotte Hornets’ coach Paul Silas was rumored to be a likely replacement. Silas told the Charlotte Observer that he'd be interested in coaching the Bobcats, but had not been contacted by the team as of 5 p.m. Wednesday. Brown gave no indication after practice Wednesday that he was planning to step down despite the team having lost six of seven games, including a 99-81 decision to Oklahoma City Tuesday night. He talked about plans for practice on Thursday and working toward the team’s next game on Dec. 27 at home against Detroit.
--It took a while as Dirk Nowitzki struggled through a first half when he had trouble getting loose for shots, but the 13-year veteran finally passed Larry Bird for 25th place on the NBA's all-time scoring list. Nowitzki moved ahead of Bird (21,791 points) with his 11th point of the game Tuesday, which fittingly came on a 3-pointer early in the fourth quarter. Nowitzki had not scored in the second or third quarters, but had nine in the fourth and finished with 17 to help fuel the win. Nowitzki now has 21,798 career points.
"I got a text from Larry right after the game," coach Rick Carlisle said. "He has gotten to know Dirk over the years and he's always been a huge fan. He wanted to congratulate him." Moments later, Nowitzki got a text from Bird, too, congratulating him. Next up on the all-time scoring list are Gary Payton (21,813) and Clyde Drexler (22,195). The only active players with more points are No. 4 Shaquille O'Neal (28,445), No. 11 Kobe Bryant (26,514) and No. 22 Kevin Garnett (22,669).
• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** SAN ANTONIO @ ORLANDO (-2.5, O/U 199.5) ***
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The San Antonio Spurs needed a fourth-quarter rally to hold off the Orlando Magic last month for their 11th straight win. A win Thursday might provide more than a little deja vu. San Antonio can pick up an 11th consecutive victory for the second time this season when its visits the Amway Center seeking to hand the new-look Magic a ninth loss in 10 games. The Spurs led after three quarters during the first 10 victories of their 12-game winning streak last month, but had to rally in the fourth to beat Orlando 106-97 on Nov. 22. San Antonio came from behind again two nights later to beat Minnesota in overtime for the final victory of its run.
After splitting four games in the interim, the NBA's top team is on another tear. The Spurs had to mount a major fourth quarter comeback to stretch their latest streak to 10, but they did, outscoring Denver 29-14 in the final 12 minutes Wednesday to escape with a 109-103 win. "It was a huge fourth quarter," said Manu Ginobili, who finished with 22 points. "I'm still kind of in shock by the way we won it." The last time San Antonio had two double-digit winning streaks in a season was 2003-04, when it had streaks of 13 and 11 games.
The Magic would simply settle for any victory these days. Orlando lost five of six prior to Saturday's blockbuster trades that brought in Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu, and the situation hasn't gotten any better. The new acquisitions have been around for the past two games, a 91-81 loss at Atlanta on Monday and a 105-99 defeat against Dallas on Tuesday, but haven't done much to help. The trio is shooting a combined 13 for 53 (24.5 percent). "I don't know if it's being in a new situation or putting too much pressure on themselves," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "All three of them are struggling to shoot the ball."
Dwight Howard has certainly been doing his part to help carry the load while Orlando adjusts to its new lineup. The two-time defensive player of the year has had three straight 20-rebound games, but he's also played 40 minutes in each contest. That workload that could turn into a problem, as the Magic have little frontcourt depth after trading backup Marcin Gortat. "We're just in a tough stretch right now, but it's December. It can't get any worse," Howard said. "One thing I tell the guys is, 'Don't get frustrated with what's going on right now. We all hate losing. But you know, we've got to learn from our mistakes and we have to stay together. We can't allow games we lose to take us off our goal and keep us from each other.'"
Howard has averaged just 11.5 points and 10.0 rebounds during San Antonio's last two visits, but the Magic have won by an average of 19.0 points. He'll have his hands full underneath with Tim Duncan, but Orlando's biggest concern should be the Spurs' backcourt. Ginobili and Tony Parker combined for 49 points and 19 assists during the win over the Magic last month. Ginobili led the way with 25 points, and when he's played well versus Orlando, so has San Antonio. The Spurs are 5-0 when Ginobili scores 25 or more against the Magic. Orlando might also want to keep an eye on Matt Bonner. The 3-point specialist has had 15 points during each of San Antonio's last two wins in the series. The Spurs are 15-0 when Bonner scores at least six points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 2; O/U 197.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -2.74
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 94.3, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 94.4, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--ORLANDO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 91.9, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 40-17 UNDER (+21.3 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 98.9, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--ORLANDO is 62-41 UNDER (+16.9 Units) after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.7, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 33-16 UNDER (+15.4 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.3, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 7-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 47.7, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 12-25 against the 1rst half line (-15.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 49.6, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 99-60 against the 1rst half line (+33.0 Units) vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 47.9, OPPONENT 42.8 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 93-65 UNDER (+21.5 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 47.8, OPPONENT 47.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 94-63 UNDER (+24.7 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 47.9, OPPONENT 42.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (ORLANDO) - in non-conference games, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.5, Opponent 47 (Average first half point differential = +4.5)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-6).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(30-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1
The average score in these games was: Team 99.3, Opponent 94.2 (Average point differential = +5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (53.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (69-43).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games.
(50-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.2, Opponent 43.6 (Total first half points scored = 92.8)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (79-58).
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*** MILWAUKEE (-1, O/U 185.5) @ SACRAMENTO ***
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After holding the two-time defending NBA champions to their lowest point total of the season, the Milwaukee Bucks will try to build on that momentum when they face the team with the league's worst record. The Bucks look to close their three-game road trip with back-to-back wins when they meet the Sacramento Kings on Thursday night. Milwaukee snapped a three-game losing streak by stunning the Los Angeles Lakers 98-79 on Tuesday. The Lakers were held to 33 points in the second half and the Bucks finished the game on a 21-7 run, keeping Los Angeles scoreless for nearly 4 minutes down the stretch.
"Both ends were good for us tonight, so I don't want to pick one more than the other," coach Scott Skiles said. "But in the second half we were as good as we've been all year on the defensive end." Milwaukee has one of the top defenses in the NBA, giving up 93.1 points per game, although its previous four opponents had averaged 98.0. The most promising part of the game may not have been the defense, though, but how the offense bounced back in its second game without leading scorer Brandon Jennings, who underwent foot surgery Monday and will miss four to six weeks.
Earl Boykins scored a season-high 22 points, John Salmons added 20 and Ersan Ilyasova had 17 points and 11 rebounds. The Bucks shot 50.7 percent after making 38.0 percent of their attempts in a 106-80 loss at Portland the night before. "I think as a team, if we get that effort, we can be tough," Salmons said. "We still haven't been healthy all year. We just have to go in every night, compete, play hard and see what happens." After a big victory, the Bucks will try to avoid a letdown against Sacramento which has dropped six straight. The Kings lost 117-109 in overtime to Golden State on Tuesday.
After giving up a tying 3-pointer at the regulation buzzer, Sacramento scored the first four points in the extra period but was dominated the rest of the way. Beno Udrih scored a season-high 34 points and Carl Landry had 22 points and 10 rebounds. "There's a line in this league when you think you can't get any lower, it gets lower," coach Paul Westphal said. "As much as it hurts, we have to bounce back." Fourth-quarter struggles continue to be a problem for Sacramento. The Kings have averaged 19.7 points in the final period over their last six games, and in the last three, they've been outscored by 11.7 during the quarter.
"It's the same thing that has been happening, we can't finish the game," Landry said. "It's nothing new, but it's heartbreaking. If we don't fix that problem we will continue to take losses." Sacramento and Milwaukee split two meetings last season after the Bucks won both in 2008-09.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Milwaukee by 4.5; O/U 187.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Milwaukee -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Milwaukee -4.41
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 99.1, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--SACRAMENTO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.9, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.2, OPPONENT 94.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 25-9 UNDER (+14.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 95.5, OPPONENT 101.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.8, OPPONENT 103.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 89.2, OPPONENT 89.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 62-31 against the 1rst half line (+27.9 Units) in home games versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 53.7, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 12-26 against the 1rst half line (-16.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 46.3, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.9, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 41-17 UNDER (+22.3 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 46.8, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 225 points or more.
(28-9 since 1996.) (75.7%, +18.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.8, Opponent 47.8 (Average first half point differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
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*** MIAMI (-6, O/U 209) @ PHOENIX ***
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It appears the Miami Heat have worked out the kinks with their influx of new talent. Now the Phoenix Suns begin trying to do the same. The Phoenix debuts of Vince Carter and two other newcomers following a blockbuster trade come Thursday night against a Miami team looking to bounce back from having a 12-game winning streak snapped. Though the deal that sent them to the Suns was completed Sunday, Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat have yet to play with their new team since coming over from Orlando for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, Earl Clark and a first-round pick.
"We should be optimistic," Steve Nash said. "We got a lot of guys coming in that give us size, depth and scoring, and defense. We should be a better team." Carter was the biggest name in the trade but also the oldest at 33, though he feels playing alongside Nash and with an up-tempo offense in Phoenix can rejuvenate his career following a mediocre year and a half with the Magic. "I look around these young guys and I've been around for a while, and I just want to bring Vince Carter, my game, who I am, my style of play, what I've done in the past years," said Carter, averaging a career-low 15.1 points. "It's a wide-open offense where you can make things happen."
Phoenix also expects to improve defensively with the arrival of Pietrus and particularly Gortat, a 6-foot-11 center and former first-round pick who saw limited minutes behind Dwight Howard in Orlando. "I'm going to fit this style perfectly," said Gortat, who has averaged 9.2 points and 9.9 rebounds in nine career games when playing more than 27 minutes. Gortat's first game in a Suns uniform could be a tough one because he may be asked to help shut down Chris Bosh, who has averaged 28.1 points and 11.7 rebounds in his last seven games against Phoenix.
Part of Miami's early struggles included Bosh's slow start -- he averaged 14.5 points and 6.0 rebounds through 10 games with his new team, but his turnaround began with a 35-point effort in a 123-96 win over Phoenix on Nov. 17. Dwyane Wade also began to assert himself more offensively not long after that, and he's averaged 27.7 points in the last 10 games. His surge helped the Heat win 12 in a row until Monday's 98-96 home loss to Dallas, one of four teams with a better record than Miami. "All year, we're going to continue to get better, to improve to get to the elite level," Wade said. "We're 30 games in. These elite teams, they've been playing together for a long time."
LeBron James went 6 of 17 from the field and was held to 19 points after scoring 32 in each of the previous two games. Miami is 10-0 when James shoots better than 50 percent, compared to 11-9 otherwise. James has averaged 34.0 points over his last five games in Phoenix and Wade has averaged 31.4 in five career visits. The Heat have won their last three trips to US Airways Center and have won seven straight on the road. While Miami is allowing a league-low 91.5 points per game, Phoenix gives up 110.2 per game. The Suns surrendered at least 110 in both games since the trade, winning at Oklahoma City before losing 118-110 at San Antonio on Monday, and they've lost five of seven.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 3.5; O/U 210
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -5.89
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 107.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) in road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 93.2, OPPONENT 93.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 38-55 ATS (-22.5 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 96.2, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 85-56 OVER (+23.4 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 106.2, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHOENIX is 59-36 OVER (+19.2 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.6, OPPONENT 107.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 54-32 OVER (+18.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 101.8, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 30-47 against the 1rst half line (-21.7 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.2, OPPONENT 55.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHOENIX is 14-29 against the 1rst half line (-17.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.1, OPPONENT 56.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 29-10 UNDER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.5, OPPONENT 51.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 55-34 UNDER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 55.8, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 96-62 UNDER (+27.8 Units) the 1rst half total as a road favorite of 3 points or less vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 47.3, OPPONENT 45.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less.
(29-6 since 1996.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 211.8
The average score in these games was: Team 111.1, Opponent 111 (Total points scored = 222.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (64.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games.
(28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.7, Opponent 49.7 (Total first half points scored = 99.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (44-22).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
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STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/23
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• OUT OF GAS! •••
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The Bucks caught the Lakers in a big letdown spot and took full advantage of it. With Milwaukee sending out just nine healthy players and the Lakers rolling along on a five-game win streak, the Bucks hit better than 50 percent of their shots from the floor for only the third time this year to drill L.A. 98-79. The 5-foot-5 Earl Boykins canned four treys and finished with 22 points and John Salmons added 20 for the Bucks, who snapped a three-game slide.
"They usually always make a run in the fourth quarter," Boykins eloquently told the press. "We were just trying to stay in front for as long as possible. If you play with effort and belief, you can do anything." That’s some advice the Kings could use. Sacto has dropped 14 of its last 15 straight up and five of the last six against the spread after they ran out of gas in overtime, losing 117-109 to Golden State as a 3-point favorite.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
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NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
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***** THURSDAY, DECEMBER 23RD NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Miami won 12 of last 13 games; they're 7-3 as a road favorite.
-- Spurs won their last ten games; they're 3-0 as an underdog.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Magic lost four in row, eight of last nine games.
-- Sacramento lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread). Bucks lost three of last four games, they're 0-4 as a road favorite.
-- Suns lost five of their last seven games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Spurs are 3-1 if they played the night before.
• TOTALS
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-- Under is 9-3 in last twelve Orlando games.
-- Three of Kings' last four games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in Miami's last ten games.
• QUICK HITS
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--SAN ANTONIO @ ORLANDO, 8:00 PM ET TNT SAN ANTONIO: 73-47 ATS off 3+ ATS losses. ORLANDO: 0-7 ATS off SU loss as favorite.
--MILWAUKEE @ SACRAMENTO, 10:00 PM ET MILWAUKEE: 18-7 ATS Away off SU win. SACRAMENTO: 10-23 ATS as home dog.
--MIAMI @ PHOENIX, 10:30 PM ET TNT MIAMI: 24-12 Under Away if favored last game. PHOENIX: 42-24 ATS after allowing 105+ pts.
• NOTES & TIPS
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--With the team struggling and frustration mounting, Charlotte Bobcats coach Larry Brown resigned Wednesday after meeting with team owner Michael Jordan. A successor was not immediately named, though former Charlotte Hornets’ coach Paul Silas was rumored to be a likely replacement. Silas told the Charlotte Observer that he'd be interested in coaching the Bobcats, but had not been contacted by the team as of 5 p.m. Wednesday. Brown gave no indication after practice Wednesday that he was planning to step down despite the team having lost six of seven games, including a 99-81 decision to Oklahoma City Tuesday night. He talked about plans for practice on Thursday and working toward the team’s next game on Dec. 27 at home against Detroit.
--It took a while as Dirk Nowitzki struggled through a first half when he had trouble getting loose for shots, but the 13-year veteran finally passed Larry Bird for 25th place on the NBA's all-time scoring list. Nowitzki moved ahead of Bird (21,791 points) with his 11th point of the game Tuesday, which fittingly came on a 3-pointer early in the fourth quarter. Nowitzki had not scored in the second or third quarters, but had nine in the fourth and finished with 17 to help fuel the win. Nowitzki now has 21,798 career points.
"I got a text from Larry right after the game," coach Rick Carlisle said. "He has gotten to know Dirk over the years and he's always been a huge fan. He wanted to congratulate him." Moments later, Nowitzki got a text from Bird, too, congratulating him. Next up on the all-time scoring list are Gary Payton (21,813) and Clyde Drexler (22,195). The only active players with more points are No. 4 Shaquille O'Neal (28,445), No. 11 Kobe Bryant (26,514) and No. 22 Kevin Garnett (22,669).
• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** SAN ANTONIO @ ORLANDO (-2.5, O/U 199.5) ***
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The San Antonio Spurs needed a fourth-quarter rally to hold off the Orlando Magic last month for their 11th straight win. A win Thursday might provide more than a little deja vu. San Antonio can pick up an 11th consecutive victory for the second time this season when its visits the Amway Center seeking to hand the new-look Magic a ninth loss in 10 games. The Spurs led after three quarters during the first 10 victories of their 12-game winning streak last month, but had to rally in the fourth to beat Orlando 106-97 on Nov. 22. San Antonio came from behind again two nights later to beat Minnesota in overtime for the final victory of its run.
After splitting four games in the interim, the NBA's top team is on another tear. The Spurs had to mount a major fourth quarter comeback to stretch their latest streak to 10, but they did, outscoring Denver 29-14 in the final 12 minutes Wednesday to escape with a 109-103 win. "It was a huge fourth quarter," said Manu Ginobili, who finished with 22 points. "I'm still kind of in shock by the way we won it." The last time San Antonio had two double-digit winning streaks in a season was 2003-04, when it had streaks of 13 and 11 games.
The Magic would simply settle for any victory these days. Orlando lost five of six prior to Saturday's blockbuster trades that brought in Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu, and the situation hasn't gotten any better. The new acquisitions have been around for the past two games, a 91-81 loss at Atlanta on Monday and a 105-99 defeat against Dallas on Tuesday, but haven't done much to help. The trio is shooting a combined 13 for 53 (24.5 percent). "I don't know if it's being in a new situation or putting too much pressure on themselves," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "All three of them are struggling to shoot the ball."
Dwight Howard has certainly been doing his part to help carry the load while Orlando adjusts to its new lineup. The two-time defensive player of the year has had three straight 20-rebound games, but he's also played 40 minutes in each contest. That workload that could turn into a problem, as the Magic have little frontcourt depth after trading backup Marcin Gortat. "We're just in a tough stretch right now, but it's December. It can't get any worse," Howard said. "One thing I tell the guys is, 'Don't get frustrated with what's going on right now. We all hate losing. But you know, we've got to learn from our mistakes and we have to stay together. We can't allow games we lose to take us off our goal and keep us from each other.'"
Howard has averaged just 11.5 points and 10.0 rebounds during San Antonio's last two visits, but the Magic have won by an average of 19.0 points. He'll have his hands full underneath with Tim Duncan, but Orlando's biggest concern should be the Spurs' backcourt. Ginobili and Tony Parker combined for 49 points and 19 assists during the win over the Magic last month. Ginobili led the way with 25 points, and when he's played well versus Orlando, so has San Antonio. The Spurs are 5-0 when Ginobili scores 25 or more against the Magic. Orlando might also want to keep an eye on Matt Bonner. The 3-point specialist has had 15 points during each of San Antonio's last two wins in the series. The Spurs are 15-0 when Bonner scores at least six points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 2; O/U 197.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -2.74
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 94.3, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 94.4, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--ORLANDO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 91.9, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 40-17 UNDER (+21.3 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 98.9, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--ORLANDO is 62-41 UNDER (+16.9 Units) after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.7, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 33-16 UNDER (+15.4 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.3, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 7-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 47.7, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 12-25 against the 1rst half line (-15.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 49.6, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 99-60 against the 1rst half line (+33.0 Units) vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 47.9, OPPONENT 42.8 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 93-65 UNDER (+21.5 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 47.8, OPPONENT 47.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 94-63 UNDER (+24.7 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 47.9, OPPONENT 42.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (ORLANDO) - in non-conference games, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.5, Opponent 47 (Average first half point differential = +4.5)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-6).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(30-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1
The average score in these games was: Team 99.3, Opponent 94.2 (Average point differential = +5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (53.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (69-43).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games.
(50-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.2, Opponent 43.6 (Total first half points scored = 92.8)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (79-58).
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*** MILWAUKEE (-1, O/U 185.5) @ SACRAMENTO ***
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After holding the two-time defending NBA champions to their lowest point total of the season, the Milwaukee Bucks will try to build on that momentum when they face the team with the league's worst record. The Bucks look to close their three-game road trip with back-to-back wins when they meet the Sacramento Kings on Thursday night. Milwaukee snapped a three-game losing streak by stunning the Los Angeles Lakers 98-79 on Tuesday. The Lakers were held to 33 points in the second half and the Bucks finished the game on a 21-7 run, keeping Los Angeles scoreless for nearly 4 minutes down the stretch.
"Both ends were good for us tonight, so I don't want to pick one more than the other," coach Scott Skiles said. "But in the second half we were as good as we've been all year on the defensive end." Milwaukee has one of the top defenses in the NBA, giving up 93.1 points per game, although its previous four opponents had averaged 98.0. The most promising part of the game may not have been the defense, though, but how the offense bounced back in its second game without leading scorer Brandon Jennings, who underwent foot surgery Monday and will miss four to six weeks.
Earl Boykins scored a season-high 22 points, John Salmons added 20 and Ersan Ilyasova had 17 points and 11 rebounds. The Bucks shot 50.7 percent after making 38.0 percent of their attempts in a 106-80 loss at Portland the night before. "I think as a team, if we get that effort, we can be tough," Salmons said. "We still haven't been healthy all year. We just have to go in every night, compete, play hard and see what happens." After a big victory, the Bucks will try to avoid a letdown against Sacramento which has dropped six straight. The Kings lost 117-109 in overtime to Golden State on Tuesday.
After giving up a tying 3-pointer at the regulation buzzer, Sacramento scored the first four points in the extra period but was dominated the rest of the way. Beno Udrih scored a season-high 34 points and Carl Landry had 22 points and 10 rebounds. "There's a line in this league when you think you can't get any lower, it gets lower," coach Paul Westphal said. "As much as it hurts, we have to bounce back." Fourth-quarter struggles continue to be a problem for Sacramento. The Kings have averaged 19.7 points in the final period over their last six games, and in the last three, they've been outscored by 11.7 during the quarter.
"It's the same thing that has been happening, we can't finish the game," Landry said. "It's nothing new, but it's heartbreaking. If we don't fix that problem we will continue to take losses." Sacramento and Milwaukee split two meetings last season after the Bucks won both in 2008-09.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Milwaukee by 4.5; O/U 187.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Milwaukee -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Milwaukee -4.41
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 99.1, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--SACRAMENTO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.9, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.2, OPPONENT 94.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 25-9 UNDER (+14.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 95.5, OPPONENT 101.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.8, OPPONENT 103.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 89.2, OPPONENT 89.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 62-31 against the 1rst half line (+27.9 Units) in home games versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 53.7, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 12-26 against the 1rst half line (-16.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 46.3, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.9, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 41-17 UNDER (+22.3 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 46.8, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 225 points or more.
(28-9 since 1996.) (75.7%, +18.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.8, Opponent 47.8 (Average first half point differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
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*** MIAMI (-6, O/U 209) @ PHOENIX ***
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It appears the Miami Heat have worked out the kinks with their influx of new talent. Now the Phoenix Suns begin trying to do the same. The Phoenix debuts of Vince Carter and two other newcomers following a blockbuster trade come Thursday night against a Miami team looking to bounce back from having a 12-game winning streak snapped. Though the deal that sent them to the Suns was completed Sunday, Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat have yet to play with their new team since coming over from Orlando for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, Earl Clark and a first-round pick.
"We should be optimistic," Steve Nash said. "We got a lot of guys coming in that give us size, depth and scoring, and defense. We should be a better team." Carter was the biggest name in the trade but also the oldest at 33, though he feels playing alongside Nash and with an up-tempo offense in Phoenix can rejuvenate his career following a mediocre year and a half with the Magic. "I look around these young guys and I've been around for a while, and I just want to bring Vince Carter, my game, who I am, my style of play, what I've done in the past years," said Carter, averaging a career-low 15.1 points. "It's a wide-open offense where you can make things happen."
Phoenix also expects to improve defensively with the arrival of Pietrus and particularly Gortat, a 6-foot-11 center and former first-round pick who saw limited minutes behind Dwight Howard in Orlando. "I'm going to fit this style perfectly," said Gortat, who has averaged 9.2 points and 9.9 rebounds in nine career games when playing more than 27 minutes. Gortat's first game in a Suns uniform could be a tough one because he may be asked to help shut down Chris Bosh, who has averaged 28.1 points and 11.7 rebounds in his last seven games against Phoenix.
Part of Miami's early struggles included Bosh's slow start -- he averaged 14.5 points and 6.0 rebounds through 10 games with his new team, but his turnaround began with a 35-point effort in a 123-96 win over Phoenix on Nov. 17. Dwyane Wade also began to assert himself more offensively not long after that, and he's averaged 27.7 points in the last 10 games. His surge helped the Heat win 12 in a row until Monday's 98-96 home loss to Dallas, one of four teams with a better record than Miami. "All year, we're going to continue to get better, to improve to get to the elite level," Wade said. "We're 30 games in. These elite teams, they've been playing together for a long time."
LeBron James went 6 of 17 from the field and was held to 19 points after scoring 32 in each of the previous two games. Miami is 10-0 when James shoots better than 50 percent, compared to 11-9 otherwise. James has averaged 34.0 points over his last five games in Phoenix and Wade has averaged 31.4 in five career visits. The Heat have won their last three trips to US Airways Center and have won seven straight on the road. While Miami is allowing a league-low 91.5 points per game, Phoenix gives up 110.2 per game. The Suns surrendered at least 110 in both games since the trade, winning at Oklahoma City before losing 118-110 at San Antonio on Monday, and they've lost five of seven.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 3.5; O/U 210
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -5.89
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 107.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) in road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 93.2, OPPONENT 93.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 38-55 ATS (-22.5 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 96.2, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 85-56 OVER (+23.4 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 106.2, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHOENIX is 59-36 OVER (+19.2 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.6, OPPONENT 107.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 54-32 OVER (+18.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 101.8, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 30-47 against the 1rst half line (-21.7 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.2, OPPONENT 55.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHOENIX is 14-29 against the 1rst half line (-17.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.1, OPPONENT 56.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 29-10 UNDER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.5, OPPONENT 51.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 55-34 UNDER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 55.8, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 96-62 UNDER (+27.8 Units) the 1rst half total as a road favorite of 3 points or less vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 47.3, OPPONENT 45.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less.
(29-6 since 1996.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 211.8
The average score in these games was: Team 111.1, Opponent 111 (Total points scored = 222.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (64.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games.
(28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.7, Opponent 49.7 (Total first half points scored = 99.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (44-22).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
Back in the early 80's, Stan the Man helped assemble one of the most powerful football and basketball databases in the nation. This incredible piece of software holds over 100 profitable situations with ATS records topping 90 percent.
Located on the East Coast just a few miles from the University of Seton Hall, Stan the Man is tuned into the Pirates as well as the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conferences. College Football, Major League Baseball as well as the NBA and NFL are considered his strengths. But keep in mind a profitable run can happen at any time in any sport when Stan gets into one of his capping zones!
Vince Lombardi, one of the greatest football coaches ever, once said, "They say that the Harder you Work, the Luckier you get" and Stan the Man is Living Proof! When you do business with Stan Szumera you can expect three things: experience, professionalism and effort, “Enjoy and the best of luck” –Stan!
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What a load of BS this is,,
Trushel Sports Consulting is the Documented No.1 NBA Handicapper in the nation!:think2
) He has dominated this season with better than 65% winning action this year and he is in the midst of a PERFECT 5-0 STREAK. His 20* is yours for $39 tonight and guaranteed to win or his next hoops report is free.^<<^ Just because my football plays have STUNK this year:>( and I will be giving out Bonus Plays through the Super Bowl, I can still pick a hopps game now and then:lolBIG)
Trushel Sports Consulting is the Documented No.1 NBA Handicapper in the nation!:think2
) He has dominated this season with better than 65% winning action this year and he is in the midst of a PERFECT 5-0 STREAK. His 20* is yours for $39 tonight and guaranteed to win or his next hoops report is free.^<<^ Just because my football plays have STUNK this year:>( and I will be giving out Bonus Plays through the Super Bowl, I can still pick a hopps game now and then:lolBIG)3-0 monday 2-1 tuesday 1-2 yesterday and his freeplay record fell to 26-6-3 last 35.I see everybody not posting records so we can see how bad some of these handicappers really are i thought i would stop.He is hit and miss going 0-3 one day 3-0 the next and has been brutal on Saturdays this month while being very good on Sundays.Compared to what some handicappers charge i can't really complain with the results.Goodluck tonight Pete i will only post records when asked otherwise by now everyone should know how amazing his freeplays have been the last couple of months.
