Thursday 12/15/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #10 - Post: 5:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#1 WHO'S YOUR DRAMA (ML=5/2)


WHO'S YOUR DRAMA - This rider and handler are solid together. Win percent when teamed up is very hard to better. This animal has recorded the best recent turf speed fig at the distance and surface. Based on workouts, I look for this gelding to run a big race. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the form to make his presence felt. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. To me, that's a good indication he will be very competitive in this turf race. This gelding's recent Equibase speed figures have been as consistent as they get. No reason today will be any different, so I expect to see this thoroughbred in the winner's circle. This equine is at the top in earnings per race. He looks nice in today's affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 KITTEN FOR GRANNY (ML=3/1), #9 DAWN PATROL (ML=4/1),

KITTEN FOR GRANNY - Will be hard for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list. DAWN PATROL - Hard to bet on at 4/1 odds after the most recent efforts.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WHO'S YOUR DRAMA - Second race back this horse had a speed number of 87 on the turf. Forget this gelding's last race, he is prime for a big race today.
*

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #1 WHO'S YOUR DRAMA to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with [11,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turfway Park - Race #6 - Post: 8:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#4 CASTLEFINN (ML=4/1)


CASTLEFINN - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Prentice rode this animal for the initial time last race out and comes right back in today's race. This gelding's last speed rating is lofty enough to win here, I'll play him right back this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DEMARLBORO (ML=8/5), #6 GUILTY STREAK (ML=2/1), #2 TOM'S MY FRIEND (ML=8/1),

DEMARLBORO - Tough to play any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the shot. This runner ran a mediocre speed fig last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat today running that fig. GUILTY STREAK - Hasn't been coming close at all recently.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CASTLEFINN - I'm making a wager on this one today. An easier spot is going to make a big difference. Will be competitive today.
**


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 CASTLEFINN is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:20 PM EASTERN POST

8.0 FURLONGS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $16,000.00 CLAIMING $31,000.00 PURSE

#3 JUST GOT OUT
#2 MADDIZASKAR
#1 NATALIE VICTORIA
#5 MY JIMMY CHEW GIRL

#3 JUST GOT OUT, the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, takes a class drop (-4), and has hit the board in four of her last five outings, with three of those "board hit efforts," also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." Jockey Jose Oritz and Trainer Linda Rice send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 57% of more than 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 MADDIZASKAR, a 4-1 shot, takes a class drop (-5), is the overall pace profile leader in this field, and has hit the board in three of her last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 12/15 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 50 - 197 / $276.20

BEST BETS: 8 - 19 / $25.80 SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 19 / $19.10

PICK 5: 2,7,9/1,3,7/1,5,10/3,8/4,6,10 = $32.40

EARLY PICK 4: 3,8/4,6,10/1,4,6/6,7 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 6,7/ALL/10/2 = $20

Best Bet: HUGHGEETTHECREDIT (10th)

Spot Play: ONE LAST BONO (9th)


Race 1

(9) CLOUSEAU HAN0VER took a major shuffle last week but he did have some late pace to offer. Maybe he has found a good spot here. (7) FREDDY BEAR is worth a look as he attracts Filion off a powerful debut win out of town. (2) SWELLENDAM finished quickly last week and he is in with a decent chance here. (1) AMAZING PERCH goes first time off the claim after missing time. He is likely to grab a smaller slice here.

Race 2

(7) WITHAHEARTTOMACH had some trot to offer late in the mile after getting shuffled last time. She looks as good as any in a wide-open trot to kick things off. (3) GROUPIE DOLL qualified okay and she seems to do her best work for Filion; using. (1) ARCHERY moves off the 10-hole which could result in a bit easier trip here. (6) SUNRISE AVENUE is turning into a bit of a money-burner. I'll play against her again.

Race 3

(10) IMSPORTY goes for the highest tag here off a powerful life's best win last week and not even the 10-hole should stop him here. (5) OCAPTAIN MYCAPTAIN couldn't stay with the winner last week, but he could improve in his second start over the track and is the likeliest winner if the choice falters. (1) TOP DESIRE raced well against a huge chalk at Flamboro after breaking early. He isn't without a shot here. (9) MACH POWER comes up tagged for the first time off a bad line; your call.

Race 4

(8) LIKEAVIRGIN steps up off a game uncovered win at Flamboro. He has beaten better in the past. Expect early aggression here. (3) CHOSEN HOMBRE should wake up in this spot as this is a big class drop. (5) PYLATER moves into conditioned claimers which should produce a better result. (1) EVERY DAY also exits a tougher race which makes him a contender.

Race 5

(6) NEWBIE qualified sharply against some classier foes. He should be ready to fire off the bench. (10) KEYSTONE KEEN obliterated a weaker field at Flamboro, but if he can clear before the turn here, he could be gone again. (4) NEXT THING SMOKEN has taken action at the windows in both Woodbine starts and now he drops to the bottom class; using. (1) LEVY TAYLORE can close for a smaller share here.

Race 6

(1) WAVE CRASHER - a winner in only his third start - takes on a few chronic losers here. He looks as good as any in a tough race to figure. (4) IN FOR ALONG HAUL can improve in his second start if he can start quicker. (6) GIULIANA comes off a win vs. cheaper, but there are no world beaters in here. (7) IGOCRAZY WITHOUT U - a 24-time loser - figures to take a slice again.

Race 7

(7) FRONTIER SEELSTER has paced 27-flat third quarters in each of his last two starts. He is razor-sharp and just needs a trip. (6) BROOKLETSJUSTIFIED finished well last week and he should improve coming back in 7 days this time. (9) FANCOURT steps up of an easy maiden win but he isn't likely to get the same soft 1/2 in here. (3) SHARKY SHARK just missed in this class two back then got a rough trip last time. He should be closer leaving from a better post.

Race 8

(9) ALACRITY drops back to the class where he races best; slight nod. (3) CRACKER ZACK could take these down the road if he stays trotting, but that part is hard to predict with him. (2) CHIEVOUS COLE raced well in this class first off the claim; using. (6) FEDERAL has improving form and he isn't out of this.

Race 9

(10) ONE LAST BONO goes for hot connections here off the claim and McNair will no doubt be rolling her early. (8) TIGRA SEELSTER should be heard from here also making her first start off a claim. (7) HONOR ROLL should be competitive while in for a tag. (5) KAYLAS DREAM ships in for a cold barn. I wouldn't take a short price on this one.

Race 10

(2) HUGHGETTHECREDIT paced a huge winning mile last week in this class. He is hard to go past here. (6) MR MATCH ON BEACH steps up off a nice score, but his only hope in here might be to try to land in the choice's pocket at the start. (10) BLUE FOX should improve in his second start over this track, but post probably dooms him to a smaller share. (5) MAX IS BACK can pass horses late, also for a smaller share. (8) CEDAR DUNES makes his first start in a new barn and he could crash the exotics at a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Thursday 12/15 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

MEET STATS: 59 - 185 / $292.80 (-$77.20)

BEST BETS: 6 - 15 / $15.80 (-$14.20)

Best Bet: GOLDEN SON (4th)

Spot Play: WAITING ON A WOMAN (6th)


Race 1

(9) HILL I AM adds Lasix and drops down this week while facing a rather weak field. (5) BRANDOS MUSCLE MAN closed for third with Brett Miler in the bike two starts back and draws better this week. (3) FASHION ZOOMALOT took a shot and held her ground in her first start for new trainer Chris Marino. Four-year-old can build on that effort. (10) BELL A CHICK seems likely to be along for a nice share if he minds his manners.

Race 2

I’m not convinced whether (4) GAMBLER SPRINGS at 12 years old is fast enough to beat this field, but the weather is expected to be nippy, which should bring them all closer together. You have to at least respect any horse Bob Krivelin drives in the amateur ranks. (2) DREAM ROCKER scored as soon as I jumped ship last week; obvious player. (6) FOX VALLEY STEFFEN was a solid winner two starts back and barn and driver have been doing well.

Race 3

I’m really not thrilled with any of these ladies so I’m going to stick with (6) LET HER ROCK because I won’t forgive myself if she switches to off the pace tactics and wins. (8) MOJARRA HANOVER has made her way to the basement condition here and instantly becomes a dangerous commodity. (1) UP YOUR GAME comes back from vacation with Lasix added off a decent qualifier.

Race 4

(3) GOLDEN SON drifted a bit in his qualifier last Saturday but still was an easy winner. Son of Majestic Son adds John Campbell and should be tough if he behaves. (5) CHICAGO DE VIE missed his first two years of racing but has made up for it with three consecutive wins to begin his career; clear threat. (2) PERFECT ROAD has been racing well and finished just behind the #5 last time. (4) SHOEMAKER HANOVER tends to hit the board more often than not.

Race 5

I’m somewhat torn between (5) ELM GROVE INARUSH & (4) KELLI RACHELLE who are both dropping in class. Ultimately I’m leaning to the former because she comes off a pretty sharp mile despite facing traffic and having to wait until mid-stretch for clearance. (7) SHE’S HEAVENLY also drops in class. She has some dangerous early speed.

Race 6

(3) WAITING ON A WOMAN was completely backed out of the race last Friday when the leader stopped. He would have finished much better with clearance in what was a very quick mile of 1:52 3/5. It is also worth nothing that he picked up a win at this level three starts back. (10) CROSBYS CLAM BAKE ships in off a solid mile and knows how to win here. He could be a decent value play from post 10. (7) PROMISE DELIVERED rallied nicely off the bench in his first start for this barn. (2) JACKS TO OPEN is off a lifetime best mile.

Race 7

(1) BLUSH HANOVER rallied nicely a week ago and has actually been in form for a few weeks now; Brett Miller’s choice. (7) CAVIART SHELLY has the early speed to make some noise if Campbell elects to fire off the wings of the gate. (3) BULLVILLE MAGGIE has been climbing the ladder and keeping her form nicely. (6) ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT failed as the favorite last time but still merits respect.

Race 8

(5) STITCH IN TIME hasn’t shown much in over a month with a quick look but did show more stretch life last time out. Slight class drop this week could make a difference. (10) WORLD CUP has been failing on the lead. Maybe post 10 will force new tactics. (4) ONDA DI MARE is off a sharp score and has the early speed to play a major role. (2) SHEER FLEX & (7) P L ICABOD are both coming off open length victories.

Race 9

(1) INTOVIEW drops back down to the class where she won three starts back. This field came up tougher but she outdrew her competition. (7) SHEEZA SHARK N was better last time and remains very dangerous if she can work out a live trip. (8) RIGHT STUFF sprinted home nicely but was too far back to menace a week ago; needs a smooth trip. (9) TRUTH AND LIBERTY is an interesting shipper from Saratoga. When last seen here she was facing better foes.

Race 10

(2) BIG EXPENSE raced okay from an outside post last time and gets the slight nod for the top driver on the card. (3) WALLTOCOUSINS is back at The Meadowlands while up in class after a win in his last trip here. (8) MIDFIELD MAGIC sees his claiming price drop in half tonight. That alone should make him competitive. (6) ULSTER hung around reasonably well on the lead last time; using underneath only.

Race 11

(7) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT kept his act together with hobbles added and maybe he can show even more now. Let’s give him the weak call in a close-knit race. (4) WINWOOD SCOUT has a serious chance of making the front and might just get lucky. (2) TAC’S DELIGHT blew up at the start and lost all chance a week ago; can rebound. (6) SWEET JUSTICE failed to fire last time but I’m not giving up hope yet. (10) EXQUISITE GLIDE qualified back nicely. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Alagna trainee was ready to fire off the bench.

Race 12

(2) HOT PATOOTIE comes off a confidence building win and faces a blank field; narrow call. (4) WOMAN OF TERROR ships in with form on her side and she has succeeded here in the past. (8) ROCKERS ALLEY won her last week and there is no reason she can’t do it again. (10) ST LADS MORGAN has form but a difficult post to overcome.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (1st) Mr. Euro, 3-1
(4th) Celtic Serenade, 3-1


Charles Town (2nd) Great Red Dragon, 3-1
(8th) Kearney Square, 6-1


Delta Downs (6th) Avalanche Girl, 5-1
(8th) Brighton Lane, 7-2


Fair Grounds (3rd) Scitech, 8-1
(7th) Archangel Rose, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (5th) Hines, 4-1
(9th) Bon Heir, 10-1


Los Alamitos (1st) Tribella, 4-1
(4th) Tough Emblem, 3-1


Penn National (5th) Consorts Ring, 7-2
(7th) Ariel’s Vision, 4-1


Turfway Park (3rd) Eastern Mischief, 10-1
(7th) Sunset Sands, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday’s six-pack

Some NFL trends with Week 15 upon us…….

— Rams are 1-6-2 vs spread in their last nine games.

— Minnesota covered nine of last ten games as a home favorite.

— Browns are 0-6-1 vs spread in their last seven games.

— Philadelphia is 2-8 vs spread in its last ten games.

— 49ers are 2-10 vs spread in their last twelve games.

— Green Bay is 15-7 in last 22 games as an NFC North road favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: Murray State Racers + 9 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NBA Denver -1½ Over Portland

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: Take AUSTIN PEAY +8½ over Wofford

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Georgia Southern/Florida International over 141

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Platinum Plays

Free Pick: CBB the Auburn Tigers -12 over Coastal Carolina

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Free Pick Chicago Bulls +2 NBA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Huddle Up Sports

Bonus Play Portland Trail Blazers +2 NBA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawkeye Sports

Thursday's Free Pick: NY Rangers - 120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Thursday: Take PORTLAND/DENVER UNDER the total of 220½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Thursday: Austin Peay Governors + 8 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Anthony Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: Austin Peay + 8 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday

On to the daily Bonus Play, and this will be another bowl selection.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI vs. UL LAFAYETTE 9:00 PM

Take: UL LAFAYETTE +5

Southern Mississippi is a tough team to figure out. The Golden Eagles have been very inconsistent all season, even within games in addition to being that way from week to week. This started right at the outset, where they got blown away early by Kentucky and then staged a remarkable rally to win. But there were far more down results late, and I’m not putting much into the upset of Louisiana Tech as the Bulldogs were clearly not focused with the big showdown against Western Kentucky for the league title on deck.

UL Lafayette played its best football late and I like this team’s defense. Elijah McGuire should be the healthiest he’s been all season and he’s the key to the Cajuns offense. The Golden Eagles have a very solid QB in Mullens, and there’s no question that the right Southern Miss team can win this. But I like the momentum on the underdog side, and they’re very excited about this game.

For those into bowl angles, there are a couple of good ones here. Unfortunately, one points to the underdog while the other indicates the favorite. I’m not much of a trend player, but if it’s long term and there’s a sound and logical rationale as to why it works, I’ll definitely give it some weight. The offset here brought me right back to the matchup itself, and I’m of the opinion that as this line has risen, so has the value factor with the underdog. I’m siding with UL Lafayette to at least score the cover if not the outright win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, December 15, 2016 7:00 PM EST

(711) CENTRAL FLORIDA VS (712) GEORGE WASHINGTON

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL

Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, December 15, 2016 comes in the college basketball battle between Central Florida and George Washington. George Washington is playing strong defense, winning 4 of 5 allowing 67 or less in the last four games (4-1 run under the total). The Under is 5-0 when the Colonials face the American Athletic Conference. Central Florida is also strong on defense, 16-5 under the total on the road, as well as 7-1 under when they face the Atlantic 10. Play Central Florida/George Washington under the total.