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Woodbine Harness: Thursday 11/27 analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: ABC MUSCLES BOY

Spot Play: GREYSTONE MOE


Race 1

(2) RUBBER DUCK has been knocking on the door as of late and is due for a win. (5) JAYPORT ALL MUSCLE remains winless in 13 career starts, but has hit the board on eight occasions, including each of his last three. (4) COOL CREEK VALLEY has been racing well as of late and draws very well for driver Roger Mayotte.

Race 2

(5) TURBO MACH hasn’t been worse than second in two career starts for trainer John Pentland and now moves up in class into this NW 2. (9) THE BATTLE BEGINS comes from the Shawn Robinson barn and drops out of the Autumn Series final after a game second place finish. (2) 2 NEW PATROL has been a threat in this class as of late and generally offers a double digit price for trainer Mike Brealey.

Race 3

(1) KEN KAN WIN suffered a tough trip last week in this class and the four-year-old was parked the mile from a post 10 start before breaking in stride. (2) STUARTS DYNASTY has hit the board in each of his last three starts, including a win last week for Team Baillargeon. (10) MONTALBANO BI has been a much better since arriving in the Per Henriksen barn a few starts ago and the Donato Hanover youngster has been knocking on the door on both occasions.

Race 4

(10) GREYSTONE MOE will need to overcome post 10, but is fresh off a win for trainer Nick Gallucci. (4) NORMSTRIKESFAME has all kinds of speed to offer, but doesn’t appear to be the easiest horse to guide throughout the mile. (7) CHARLIES A FLYIN offered a low price last week and finished a disappointing eighth for trainer Steve Charlton.

Race 5

(6) ETRUSCAN HANOVER posted a winning qualifier at The Meadowlands on Nov. 7 in a speedy 1:56 1/5 and will look for his fourth win of the campaign. (10) LATOKA has hit the board in 11 of 19 starts this season and the gelding is fresh off a win last week in the debut for trainer Joe Cirasuola. (9) ROGAZZO DOLCE was a winner in his latest pari-mutuel contest with a speedy :28 3/5 final quarter.

Race 6

(5) CANT STOP is long overdue to enjoy her first career win and it may come in here with a good post this week. (8) DOCS HOLLYWOOD shows the speed over Hoosier Park and will make her first start for trainer Kevin St Charles. (9) LADY HILL draws outside again this week, but closed well last week to only be defeated less than four lengths from a post 10 start.

Race 7

(4) BIG TURN ON has been knocking on the door in each of her last two starts for trainer Ben Baillargeon. (7) MITTCENT VAN GOGH has been shy in the win column this season, but can’t be overlooked for the exactor for trainer Shane Arsenault. (1) J JS DELIVERY draws the rail and romped in his latest by over eight lengths for trainer Shawn Robinson.

Race 8

(4) ABC MUSCLES BOY has won three straight, including last week on this circuit and in this class. (8) SEVEN POINTS JESSE has also won three straight dashes and will enter the Tony O’Sullivan barn heading into this contest. (3) WALK THE PLANK has been the victim of outside post positions in his last two starts, but draws well in here and has been a proven threat.

Race 9

(9) WELCOME MARGIN will get top honours from me in this wide-open dash as the gelding shows quick speed over Northfield’s half-mile oval and was a winner in his latest pari-mutuel outing. (8) PLANS OVER comes from the Vic Puddy barn and was a winner in his latest in this class. (7) SEA STAR enjoyed a perfect two-hole trip last week in this class and settled for second for trainer Joanne Pond.

Race 10

(3) HOPETOBEFIRST was a winner in this class two starts back and draws inside once again this week for owner/trainer Stephane Bardier. (5) LOST IN PANSLATION will gain a lot of attention again this week as he faces off in the same class for high percentage trainer Jim Stewart. (1) MY MASTERPIECE draws the rail for a fourth straight week for trainer Marty Fine.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Chasing Bubbles, 7-2
(5th) Wealth to Me, 10-1


Churchill Downs (6th) Cash For Ever, 3-1
(10th) Joy Boy, 4-1


Del Mar (1st) U S Citizen, 3-1
(3rd) Burning, 3-1


Fair Grounds (3rd) Yankee Grind, 3-1
(10th) On Moonlight Bay, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (1st) Strike Em' Out, 8-1
(3rd) Sandor, 3-1


Gulfstream Park West (1st) Super Doc, 3-1
(9th) El Botas, 10-1


Laurel (2nd) Whiskey Sour, 6-1
(3rd) Cotton Letters, 8-1
 
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NCAAB

Tennessee hasn't played in week; in meantime, one of its assistants quit because of an NCAA investigation at Southern Miss, where he used to work. Vols lost by 16 to VCU, beat a stiff by 12. Long trip to Florida for Santa Clara squad that lost last two games, by 6 at Utah State, by 27 at Michigan State. WCC underdogs are 3-7 vs spread so far this month.

Georgia Tech is 3-0 despite 54.4% shooting from foul line; they won by 7 over Georgia, are rebounding 44.4% of its misses (#7 in US). Marquette is off to shaky 2-2 start, with loss to Neb-Omaha, 62-57 win over NJIT; teams are shooting 56.9% inside arc against them. Big East teams are 18-4 vs spread this season, 8-0 in games played on neutral courts.

Butler had 29 offensive boards in 74-66 upset of North Carolina- four of Butler's starters played 31+ minutes. Bulldogs are 4-0, with other three wins vs stiffs. Oklahoma was 10-36 from arc, 11-26 inside it in win over UCLA; Sooners' only loss was at Creighton, after they blew an 18-point lead. Big X favorites are 12-8 overall, 7-2 on neutral courts.

Georgetown beat Florida in OT in late game last night; they had five guys play 32+ minutes. Hoyas shot 58% inside arc, turned ball over 19 times (-3). Wisconsin was up 20 at half in easy win over UAB; Badgers are 5-0 and no one has come within 24 of them yet. Big 14 favorites are 5-5 this month on neutral courts. Big East underdogs are 5-0 vs spread.

North Carolina-UCLA in losers' bracket? Bruins were outscored 26-8 in last 9:05 yesterday; they were 9-21 on foul line, 4-17 from arc (1-6 other than Alford). UNC got pushed around by Butler, giving up 29 offensive boards; Tar Heels are shooting only 26.7% from arc, same problem they had LY. Pac-12 teams are 5-12 vs spread this month on neutral courts.

Illinois is 4-0 but hasn't played anyone ranked in top 200; they've made 47.3% from arc, forced turnovers 22% of time, but against 11th-easiest schedule in country. Indiana State lost by 13 at home to Saint Louis, got OT win at IUPUI. Big 14 double digit favorites are 13-11, 1-1 on neutral court. MVC teams are 7-3 vs spread on neutral courts this month.

Princeton lost its last three games and hasn't played anyone in top 150 yet; they lost last game by 11 to Incarnate Word. Tigers allowed 81 ppg in last two games, are shooting 44% inside arc. UTEP won its first two games by 12-1, both at home; Miners forced turnovers 24% of the time. C-USA faves are 6-11 vs spread this month. Ivy League dogs are 6-6.

San Diego turned ball over 22.6% of time in 3-1 start, despite having two good (short) senior guards; Toreros are shooting 58% inside arc. Xavier is 4-0 with three wins vs teams in top 120; no one has come within 18 of them this month. WCC non-conference underdogs are 1-3 vs spread on a neutral courts. Big East favorites are 12-4, 4-0 on neutral floors.

Long Beach State is 2-3 against 8th-hardest schedule so far; 49ers gave up 89.7 ppg in three losses, 62 ppg in wins- they've made 41.3% of tryes so far. Western Michigan was 3-0 before loss at San Diego Monday; they're making 42.4% behind arc. MAC underdogs are 10-7/ Big West teams are 14-15 vs spread, 4-4 if favored. Broncos are shooting 59% inside arc.

Western Kentucky lost last three games, losing by 10 at Stony Brook in last game Tuesday; Hilltoppers are turning ball over 24% of time, while shooting 41.5% inside arc. St Joe's should have fans come up from Philly; young Hawks are struggling at 2-3, losing to FDU, beating LIU in OT- they're shooting only 23% from arc, 43% inside it.

Mercer lost all five starters from team that upset Duke in NCAA's eight months ago; Bears have only one senior in rotation- they've turned ball over 23.9% of time in 2-2 start, with no top 200 wins. Rice scored only 62.3 ppg in 1-2 start; new coach was VCU assistant, but they don't have guys to play like that yet. Rice doesn't have a top 300 win, either.

Washington State had shortest trip to Alaska of the seven visiting teams in Alaskan Shootout; Coogs scored 53 ppg in losing first two games, then beat weak Idaho State by 12. Wazzu is turning ball over 22.5% of time, making 29.4% from arc. UCSB lost both its D-I games, but one was at Kansas by 10, other in OT to Fla Gulf Coast, not exactly terrible losses.

Baylor is 4-0 with win at South Carolina, 16-point vs SF Austin; they're smaller, quicker this year- opponents are shooting 21% from arc against them. Memphis has inexperienced guards; they lost to Wichita by 15 on a neutral court, then beat a stiff team. Big X faves are 8-2 vs spread on neutral floors. AAC teams are 3-9 against spread on neutral courts.
 
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NCAAF

Thursday's game

LSU scored total of 23 points in last three games, losing last two, in OT to Alabama, 17-0 at Arkansas; Tigers completed less than 50% of passes in five of last six games, but they did beat Texas A&M 34-10/24-19 last two years, running ball for 543 yards in those games. Aggies covered one of last seven games, losing four of last six SU; Aggies are 0-2 at home in SEC this year, allowing 69 points in losses to Ole Miss/Mizzou. Aggies covered four of last five tries as a home underdog. SEC home underdogs are 9-10 this season.

Home side lost last two TCU-Texas games; Horned Frogs won 20-13 in last visit here. TCU allowed 121 points (40.3 ppg) in last three games on road, losing 61-58 at Baylor, beating West Virginia 31-30, Kansas 34-30, so they've been shaky on foreign soil. Texas allowed 12 ppg in winning last three games after 3-5 start; they allowed 16 or less points in five of six wins- they're 1-4 when allowing 20+ points. Over last 10+ years, Texas is 1-6 as a home dog. Big X home underdogs are 13-5 this season.
 

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