Thursday 11/27/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. As the regular season nears its end, Doc’s Sports continues to look at the little programs that could help you make big cash.

Team to watch: Colorado State Rams (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS)

This week: -7 at Air Force

Colorado State running back Dee Hart was named Mountain West Player of the Week Monday. And why not? He rushed 20 times for 230 yards and five touchdowns while also catching two passes for 42 yards and another score in a 58-20 blowout of New Mexico. Hart has three consecutive 100-yard performances and found the end zone 11 times (10 on the ground) in those three games.

In last year’s head-to-head meeting at Colorado State, the Rams racked up 629 yards of offense and hammered Air Force 58-13. The Falcons were five minutes away from being shut out for the first time since 1992 before scoring two otherwise meaningless touchdowns.

Colorado State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games. Air Force is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 conference outings and 2-7 ATS in its last nine against opponents with winning records.

Team to beware: Ball State Cardinals (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)

This week: +9.5 at Bowling Green

Almost every team is banged up at this point of the season, but perhaps no unit has had it worse than Ball State’s defense. Five opening-game starters on the defensive side of the ball have been lost for the season, plus five backups. The Cardinals also suspended lineman Blake Dueitt for a violation of team rules earlier this month.

While the defense has been in flux the entire season, the most important position on the offensive side of the ball has also been a carousel. Ozzie Mann started BSU’s first five games before getting benched. Jack Milas took the reins for the past six contests but went down with a wrist injury against Eastern Washington last week.

Head coach Pete Lembo said earlier this week that Milas is doubtful and he’s preparing to start Mann, who has attempted only seven passes (all last week vs. Eastern Washington) since Oct. 4.

Total team: Old Dominion Monarchs (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 O/U)

This week: 68 at Florida Atlantic

Old Dominion head coach Bobby Wilder said earlier this week that running backs Ray Lawry (sore neck) and Gerard Johnson (sprained ankle) are likely to play against Florida Atlantic Saturday. Both Lawry (734 yards, 15 TDs) and Johnson (493 yards, one TD) left last week’s game vs. Louisiana Tech in the first half. Despite seeing their top two rushers go down, the Monarchs still won 30-27 in overtime.

That was the first time ODU’s defense had held an opponent to fewer than 30 points since Sept. 13. As for Florida Atlantic’s defense, Lawry and Johnson get to face a unit that gives up 224.8 rushing yards per game.

The Over is 7-0 in Old Dominion’s last seven road games and 4-1 in its last five overall. The Over is 4-0 in Florida Atlantic’s last four at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF line watch: Don't miss key number for Notre Dame-USC
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans (-7)

Southern Cal opened briefly as a 6.5-point home favorite versus Notre Dame, and money quickly came in on the Trojans making them 7-point chalk in all locations. I expect more USC money to come in and push this line up higher, so bettors should lay the key number now before the line ticks up.

Notre Dame comes in off a close 31-28 home loss to Louisville. That was its third straight loss and its fourth loss over the past five games. Southern Cal also comes in off a loss to rival UCLA, getting blown out 38-20. Southern Cal is playing at home, so it will have an easier time getting up for this game, especially since the Trojans have revenge on their minds after losing 14-10 at Notre Dame last season. Lay the points with the Trojans now.

Spread to wait on

Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions (+13.5)

Michigan State was initially a 13-point road favorite at Penn State and money came in quickly on the Spartans, pushing the line higher. I anticipate this line going up further, especially after Michigan State won 45-3 last week while Penn State lost 16-14.

Penn State has a solid defense that only allows 16.2 points per game on 4.1 yards per play, so giving them close to two touchdowns presents solid value. Michigan State’s biggest wins this season have come against some really bad teams. Penn State took Ohio State to double overtime, so the Nittany Lions are capable of competing. Wait this game out and take Penn State at +14 points or more later in the week.

Total to watch

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Georgia Bulldogs (64)

This rivalry game has seen Georgia win five consecutive meetings. The Bulldogs appear to be in line for a sixth straight win as they are currently 13-point favorites over Georgia Tech. This series has been high-scoring lately, with the past five games averaging 61 points.

Georgia Tech and Georgia are both playing at an extremely slow pace this season. The Yellow Jackets rank 122nd in pace while the Bulldogs rank just 102nd in pace. However, the teams are averaging a lot of points per game: Georgia Tech (37.8) and Georgia (43.3). The two defenses have gone unnoticed. Georgia Tech allows just 24.1 points per game and Georgia allows only 20.5 points per game. Based on recent history, this total may be inflated a few points too high.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Make sure you're capping motivation in Week 14 of college football
By KEVIN CAUSEY

Motivation will play a big part in Week 14’s college football games. Some teams will be looking to improve their playoff standing, some will be trying to become bowl eligible, some are simply playing out the stretch and some are out ruin someone's season.

We look at which NCAAF teams are in these motivational spots - Style points, Bowl eligibility, Busts, and Spoilers - and how to bet them in Week 14:

Style Points: Teams wanting to improve bowl standing

TCU Horned Fros (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS)

This week: -6.5 at Texas

The Horned Frogs are currently ranked No. 5 and they need to beat Texas and do so impressively. Texas Christian is still trying to overcome that loss to Baylor and to ease the committee's mind they need to take Texas to the woodshed. This might not be as easy as it once appeared as Texas is playing its best football of the season.

Florida State Seminoles (11-0 SU, 3-8 ATS)

This week: -7.5 vs. Florida

“Famous Jameis” and the Seminoles have played the role of Harry Houdini, escaping each and every week with a win. But that's left them in a weird situation, where they could end the season with the best record but not be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. They must beat Florida – and bad – in order to convince the country.

Bowl: Teams trying to become bowl eligible

Kentucky Wildcats (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS)

This week: +12.5 at Louisville

The Wildcats hit the ground running this year and jumped out to a 5-1 record. Since then, they have lost five straight games. Louisville has won the last three games in this series. Mark Stoops will face off for the first time against Bobby Petrino in this rivalry and if the Wildcats can win, they will go bowling for the first time since 2010. The momentum would be huge for the Wildcats program heading into 2015.

California Golden Bears (5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS)

This week: -4 vs. BYU

After a 1-11 season in 2013, Sonny Dykes has the Golden Bears knocking on the door of bowl eligibility. The Bears have won just once in their last six games, although they did have close calls with UCLA and USC. It's difficult to tell what type of BYU team shows up. The Cougars lost four straight before rebounding with three wins against lesser opponents.

Bust: Teams throwing in the towel

Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS)

This week: +24.5 vs. Baylor

The Red Raiders have fallen on hard times this year with their best wins coming against Kansas and Iowa State. After picking up a road win last time out, this seemingly-impossible game against Baylor at AT&T Stadium could be a glorified sight-seeing tour for the Raiders.

Vanderbilt Commodores (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS)

This week: +17 vs. Tennessee

Vanderbilt has fallen off the cliff this year with their only FBS wins coming against ODU and UMass. And with this being Thanksgiving weekend and Vandy students having better things to do – like study - than watch their football team get squashed, it will be a ghost town in Vanderbilt Stadium Saturday.

Spoiler: Teams that would love to spoil their opponent’s season

Auburn Tigers (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS)

This week: +9.5 at Alabama

The Iron Bowl needs no introduction but the Tigers are limping into this game after losing to Texas A&M and getting destroyed by rival Georgia two weeks ago. Auburn isn’t making the playoff cut, so the only thing better than that is ruining it for Alabama. Books are hesitant to go to a 10-point spread for this rivalry, knowing that after last year anything can happen.

Oregon State Beavers (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS)

This week: +19.5 vs. Oregon

The Civil War has been owned recently by the Ducks, winning six straight in the series. The Beavers started off the season 4-1 but have lost five of their last six, including a waxing at Washington by 24 last week. A win by the Beavers would make them bowl eligible, knock the Ducks out of the College Football Playoff and might also cost Marcus Mariota a Heisman. Reser Stadium is known for upsets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday November 29, 12:00 EST

Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) with a shot at the playoffs you can bet Urban Meyer's gang keep peddle-to-mettle. Ridding a 9-0 (6-3 ATS) stretch defeating foes by an average 26.3 points/game got to like Buckeyes chances vs this Wolverine squad (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) playing out the string. Stick with Buckeyes who are 9-1 (8-2 ATS) last ten encounters with Michigan, 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in each of it's last six home game finales vs Wolverines.


Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers Saturday November 29th 08:00 EST

Oregon (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) coming off a 44-10 home win and cover against Colorado laying 32.5 points have clinched the Pac-12 Conference North Division. But, don't for a minute think they'll let up when they travel to Corvallis to take on Beavers (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS). 'Quack Attack' lead by QB Marcus Mariota (3103 PY, 32 Pass TD, 2 Int) racking up 45.8 PPG just love to beat up on teams and they’ll beat up on Oregon State who don’t have the talent to keep pace as it's 84th ranked offense generates only 26.3 PPG. Consider laying the lumber (-20) knowing Ducks have cashed 4 straight at Reser Stadium, have cashed 13-of-16 as a road chalk against a conference opponent, Beavers are is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games vs the conference.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 14
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, November 27

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TCU at TEXAS
Road team has won and covered last two meetings. Frogs 8-2 vs. line TY but only 1-2 last three. Horns have covered last three in 2014.

Slight to TCU, based on team trends.


LSU at TEXAS A&M
Les has won and covered last two vs. A&M. Ags 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY and 6-14 last 20 on board. But LSU 1-6 vs. spread last 7 away from Baton Rouge.

LSU, based on series trends.



Friday, November 28

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

AKRON at KENT STATE (Moved from Tuesday)
Bowden no covers last five and 1-7-1 vs. line last nine TY, though Zips 4-1 vs. line last five in series.

Slight to Kent State, based on recent trends.


VIRGINIA at VIRGINIA TECH
Beamer has not lost SU to UVa since 2003, though has failed to cover last two. But Beamer 16-34-1 vs. line since late 2010.

Slight to Virginia, based on recent trends.


BALL STATE at BOWLING GREEN
Falcs no covers first three MAC games as host TY. Lembo still 3-2 vs. line away, and 16-8 vs. line as visitor since 2011.

Slight to Ball State, based on extended trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN
WMU stellar 11-0 vs. line TY! NIU 2-6 vs. spread last eight TY, though covers came in last two on road.

WMU, based on recent trends.


BUFFALO at UMASS
UMass has covered last six and eight of last nine TY.

UMass, based on recent trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at MARSHALL
Herd 9-1-1 vs. spread last 11 at Huntington.

Marshall, based on team trends.


TOLEDO at EASTERN MICHIGAN
Rockets have covered 6 of last 7 in series.

Toledo, based on series trends.


NEBRASKA at IOWA
Hawkeyes have covered last two meetings, but only 8-12 last 20 vs. lien at Iowa City. Bo Pelini 6-1 vs. line last seven away from Lincoln.

Nebraska, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at TULSA
ECU no covers last five TY but has won and covered last three vs. Tulsa. Golden Hurricane only 7-16 vs. spread since 2013.

ECU, based on series and extended team trends.


HOUSTON at SMU
UH 5-3 vs. spread last 8 TY. Cougs 4-1 SU and vs. line last five meetings.

UH, based on series trends.


NAVY at SOUTH ALABAMA
Jags 0-4 vs. line at Mobile TY and no covers last six. Mids have covered last three in 2014 and 3-1 vs. spread away from Annapolis TY, 8-1 last nine.

Navy, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS at MISSOURI
Hogs 9-1 last nine vs. line TY and covered last three away,

Arkansas, based on recent trends.


STANFORD at UCLA
Bruins have not beaten Tree since 2008, 6 SU losses since, 1-5 vs. line. But Shaw 1-5 last six vs. points away from Palo Alto.

UCLA, based on recent Stanford road woes.


ARIZONA STATE at ARIZONA
Historically road-oriented series though ASU won big at home LY. Visitor had covered previous four. ASU 8-2 vs. spread last 10 at Tucson.

ASU, based on series trends.


COLORADO STATE at AIR FORCE
McElwain on 21-7 spread run since mid 2012. Rams 11-2 vs. spread last 13 away from Fort Collins. Force has covered 5 of last 7 TY.

CSU, based on McElwain trends.


UCF at USF
USF 5-18-1 vs. spread last 24 at Tampa. UCF 6-2 vs. points last eight TY.

UCF, based on USF home woes.



Saturday, November 29

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE
OSU 9-1 SU last 10 in series (7-3 vs. line in those games). Wolverines no covers last three at Columbus. Hoke 4-8-1 last 13 as dog.

OSU, based on team and series trends.


SYRACUSE at BOSTON COLLEGE
Cuse 4-2 vs. line last six away from Carrier Dome, but only 4-7 vs. spread TY. BC was 5-1 as home chalk past two seasons, 13-8 vs. points last 20 on board.

BC, based on team trends.


OLD DOMINION at FLORIDA ATLANTIC
ODU 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY. FAU 23-9 last 32 vs. spread.

FAU, based on team trends.


WAKE FOREST at DUKE
Blue Devils sagging with two Ls in a row as home favorite, though they were 11-1 vs. line previous 12 as Durham chalk. Cutcliffe 2-0-1 vs. line last five vs. Deacs.

Duke, based on extended trends.


TENNESSEE at VANDERBILT
Dores have won and covered last two meetings, unprecedented in recent series history. Vandy once went 22 straight (1983-2004) without beating UT. Vandy just 2-5 vs. line as host TY, Vols have covered 4 of last 6 in 2014.

UT, based on recent trends.


MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN
Paul Bunyan Axe! Slab of Bacon! Badgers 4-1 vs. line last 5 TY but only 2-2 vs. line last four at Camp Randall. Jerry Kill 4-1 as dog TY and 9-3 in role since 2013. Gophers haven't beaten Badgers since 2003.

Slight to Wisconsin, based on series trends.


PITTSBURGH at MIAMI-FLA
Canes 5-1 last 6 as chalk TY. Pitt 3-6 last 9 vs. line but 2-1 as dog in 2014.

Slight to Miami, based on recent trends.


RUTGERS at MARYLAND
Rutgers 3-2 as road dog TY, 10-5 in role since 2011.

Slight to Rutgers, based on team trends.


RICE at LA TECH
Both 8-3 vs. line TY. Owls 22-10 last 32 on board and covered last 2 vs. LT.

Slight to Rice, based on series trends.


NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA
After Duke win, Fedora now 5-1 last six vs. line TY, closing fast as in 2013. NCS 3-1 vs. line as visitor in 2014. Fedora has won and covered last two years vs. Pack.

UNC, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN
Illini now 2-11 vs. line as visitor since 2012. Pat Fitz, however, only 2-10 vs. points last 12 at Evanston. NU has won SU last two years vs. Illini.

Slight to NU, based on Illinois negatives.


PURDUE at INDIANA
Old Oaken Bucket! Hazell has covered four straight away from Ross-Ade, while IU just 4-7 vs. points in 2014. Purdue has covered last three and five of last six meetings.

Purdue, based on team trends.


IDAHO at APP STATE
Vandals 5-0 vs. line away TY, App 1-3 vs. spread last four at Boone.

Idaho, based on recent trends.


CINCINNATI at TEMPLE
Tuberville has won and covered last five TY after slumping previously. Owls only 2-4 last six vs. spread as spread magic has cooled, and 2-3 last five as dog.

Slight to Cincy, based on recent trends.


TEXAS STATE at GEORGIA STATE
Franchione has now covered five straight. GSU 1-4 vs. line as host TY.

TSU, based on recent Franchione marks.


WEST VIRGINIA at IOWA STATE
Holgorsen 1-4 last five as chalk and just 5-15 in role since 2012. ISU 2-0-1 as road dog TY, 3-0-1 last four in role.

ISU, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at ARKANSAS STATE
Red Wolves 4-1 vs. spread at Jonesboro TY and 4-2 as DD chalk. NMSU no covers last five TY, and 0-4 last four vs. line on road.

ASU, based on team trends.


UAB at SOUTHERN MISS
USM 0-4-1 vs. line at home TY, 2-11-1 last 14 as host. Blazers had covered four straight in series prior to LY.

UAB, based on team and extended series trends.


WYOMING at NEW MEXICO
Davie 4-1 last 5 and 5-2 last 7 vs. line TY. Wyo 2-6 vs. line last eight TY.

UNM, based on recent and series trends.


UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE
USU 5-2 vs. spread on MW road since LY, 6-2 vs. line last 8 TY, 10-5 last 15 as dog.

USU, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE
SJSU no covers last four or 7 of last 9 TY.

Slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.


WASHINGTON at WASHINGTON STATE
Apple Cup. Leach has covered past two years in Apple Cup. Huskies have covered 4 of last 5 on Pac-12 road since late LY.

Slight to WSU, based on recent series trends.


BAYLOR vs. TEXAS TECH (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)
TT 2-6 vs. spread last seven Big 12 reg season games away from Lubbock. Kingsbury 4-11-1 last 16 vs. spread in reg. season. Baylor has won and covered big last three meetings vs. Red Raiders.

Baylor, based on team and series trends.


GEORGIA TECH at GEORGIA
Paul Johnson has covered last four and 6 of last 8 TY, also 4-1 vs. spread away this season. Long-standing road trends in this rivalry as visitor 13-2-1 last 16 vs. spread in series. Richt only 2-3 as home chalk TY, 7-11 in role since 2012.

GT, based on recent and extended series trends.


KANSAS at KANSAS STATE
Bill Snyder 5-0 SU and vs. line against Jayhawks since 2009. KSU on 15-6 spread run at home and has covered 7 of last 8 this season. KU 4-2-1 vs. line for Bowen.

KSU, based on Bill Snyder trends.


BYU at CAL
Cougs only 1-7 last 8 vs. line TY, Cal 7-3-1 vs. spread for Dykes in 2014.

Cal, based on recent trends.


OREGON at OREGON STATE
Beavs woeful 2-9 vs. line this season. Ducks 5-0-1 vs. line last six TY. Ducks had covered three straight Civil Wars before close escape LY.

Oregon, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at PENN STATE
Dantonio only 2-2 vs. line away TY but 11-3 vs. spread in role as visitor since 2012. Franklin only 2-5 vs. line last six TY and 1-4 last five Big Ten games vs. number.

MSU, based on team trends.


AUBURN at ALABAMA
Malzahn has really cooled vs. number after that 13-game cover streak, now just 2-6 last eight, but still 6-1 as dog with Auburn (1-1 TY). Tide only 3-9 last 12 vs. line.

Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.


FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE
Road team has covered last three in series. Jimbo just 3-9 last 12 vs. line. Gators 7-3-1 last 11 as dog and covered last 3 away from Swamp TY.

Florida, based on team and series road trends.


NEVADA at UNLV
Pack had won nine straight vs. Rebs before home loss LY, though UNLV has covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Pack has won last four at Sam Boyd Stadium.

Nevada, based on extended series and team trends.


ULM at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Eagles 4-1 vs. spread in Statesboro TY. ULM 3-1 vs. line last 4 after 0-5-1 run.

Slight to GSU, based on recent trends.


SOUTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON
Spurrier only 4-7 vs. line TY but Dabo no covers last six in 2014. Spurrier 3-0 as dog TY (dog 10-1 in each Gamecock game TY!) and 7-2 in role since 2012. Spurrier has also won and covered five straight vs. Clemson.

SC, based on team and series trends.


HAWAII at FRESNO STATE
Chow finally got road W and cover at San Jose but had dropped all four vs. line on mainland previously TY. FSU 5-2 vs. line in MW play this season.

Slight to Fresno, based on Chow road woes.


UTAH at COLORADO
Buffs have covered last 3 vs. Utes! CU 8-3 vs. line at home since LY. Utah 5-0 vs. line away TY.

CU, based on series trends.


UCONN at MEMPHIS
Diaco 2-8 vs. line TY. Tigers 4-2 laying DD since last season.

Memphis, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE
Cats no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 TY. Ville 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 vs. line last three years vs. UK. Cats no covers last 3 or 5 of last 6 away from Lexington.

'Ville, based on series and team trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at OLE MISS
Dan Mullen has covered seven straight away from Starkville. Hugh Freeze no covers last four TY after 34-11 mark prior.

MSU, based on recent trends.


MTSU at UTEP
Miners 5-0 vs. line at Sun Bowl TY. MTSU 1-5 vs. points last six in 2014 and 1-3 last four away TY.

UTEP, based on recent trends.


ULL at TROY
ULL 6-1 SU last 7 and 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY. Also covered 3 of last 4 vs. Troy. Trojans 5-2 vs. line last 7 TY.

ULL, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at UTSA
Coker no covers last 4 or 8 of last 9 TY. UNT 0-5 vs. points away TY.

Slight to UTSA, based on recent UNT road woes.


NOTRE DAME at SOUTHERN CAL
Irish have won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. SC. But fading Irish no covers last four TY and just 10-15 last 25 vs. line.

Slight to ND, based on recent series trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Trends

College Football Betting Trends - Thurs, Nov. 27

TCU at Texas, 7:30 ET
TCU: 23-9 OVER (+13.1 Units) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals
Texas: 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

LSU at Texas AM, 7:30 ET
LSU: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
Texas AM: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games


College Football Betting Trends - Fri, Nov. 28

Virginia at Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET
Virginia: 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) against conference opponents
Virginia Tech: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Ball State at Bowling Green, 1:00 ET
Ball St: 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game
Bowling Green: 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) as a home favorite

Northern Illinois at Western Michigan, 11:00 AM ET
N Illinois: 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off an upset win as an underdog
W Michigan: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against conference opponents

Buffalo at Massachusetts, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 3-12 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Massachusetts: 5-1 ATS after playing a conference game

Western Kentucky at Marshall, 12:00 ET
W Kentucky: 8-2 OVER (+5.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63
Marshall: 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) in home games after playing 2 straight conference games

Toldeo at Eastern Michgan, 1:00 ET
Toldeo: 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
E Michigan: 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games

Nebraska at Iowa, 12:00 ET
Nebraska: 24-6 ATS (+17.4 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Iowa: 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games after a game where they forced no turnovers

East Carolina at Tulsa, 8:30 ET
E Carolina: 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) after a cover as a double digit favorite
Tulsa: 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in home games off 1 or more straight overs

Houston at SMU, 12:00 ET
Houston: 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers
SMU: 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games after being outgained by 225 or more total yds in their previous game

Navy at South Alabama, 3:00 ET
Navy: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56
S Alabama: 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games

Arkansas Missouri, 2:30 ET
Arkansas: 7-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Missouri: 5-1 OVER after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins

Stanford at UCLA, 3:30 ET
Stanford: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a win by 21 or more points
UCLA: 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Arizona State at Arizona, 3:30 ET
Arizona St: 11-3 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Arizona: 11-24 ATS off an upset win as an underdog

Colorado State at Air Force, 3:30 ET
Colorado St: 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite
Air Force: 25-51 ATS (-31.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival

Central Florida at South Florida, 12:00 ET
Central FL: 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when the total is between 42.5 and 49
S Florida: 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after playing 3 straight conference games

Akron at Kent State, 1:00 ET
Akron: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders
Kent State: 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread


College Football Betting Trends - Sat Nov. 29

Michigan at Ohio State, 8:00 ET
Michigan: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after playing a game at home
Ohio State: 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after playing a game at home

Syracuse at Boston College, 12:00 ET
Syracuse: 21-9 UNDER off 2 straight losses against conference rivals
Boston College: 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Old Dominion at Florida Atlantic, 12:00 ET
Old Dominion: 1-5 ATS after playing a conference game
Florida ATL: 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road

Wake Forest at Duke, 12:00 ET
Wake Forest: 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Duke: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games off an upset loss as a favorite

Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 4:00 ET
Tennessee: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
Vanderbilt: 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Minnesota at Wisconsin, 3:30 ET
Minnesota: 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in road games after playing their last game on the road
Wisconsin: 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs

Pittsburgh at Miami Florida, 3:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 6-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
Miami FL: 14-28 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders

Rutgers at Maryland, 3:30 ET
Rutgers: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Maryland: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival

Rice at Louisiana Tech, 12:00 ET
Rice: 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Louisiana Tech: 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite

North Carolina State at North Carolina, 12:30 ET
N Carolina St: 6-11 ATS as an underdog
N Carolina: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games

Illinois at Northwestern, 12:00 ET
Illinois: 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after a game where they committed no turnovers
Northwestern: 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after a win by 21 or more points

Purdue at Indiana, 12:00 ET
Purdue: 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Indiana: 15-5 OVER off 1 or more straight overs

Idaho at Appalachian State, 2:00 ET
Idaho: 38-62 ATS (-30.2 Units) after playing a conference game
App St: 5-1 ATS in the second half of the season

Cincinnati at Temple, 12:00 ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival
Temple: 9-2 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs

Texas State at Georgia State, 2:00 ET
Texas St: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games
Georgia St: 6-1 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders

West Virginia at Iowa State, 12:00 ET
W Virginia: 6-0 UNDER after playing 2 straight conference games
Iowa St: 5-1 UNDER after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games

New Mexico State at Arkansas State, 3:00 ET
New Mexico St: 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) as an underdog
Arkansas St: 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games

UAB at Southern Miss, 3:30 ET
UAB: 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) as a favorite
Southern Miss: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Wyoming at New Mexico, 3:00 ET
Wyoming: 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game
New Mexico: 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games off 3 straight losses against conference rivals

Utah State at Boise State, 10:15 ET
Utah State: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents
Boise State: 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game

San Jose State at San Diego State, 3:30 ET
San Jose State: 1-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
San Diego State: 8-2 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Washington at Washington State, 10:30 ET
Washington: 5-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Washington St: 12-35 ATS (-26.5 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Baylor at Texas Tech, 3:30 ET
Baylor: 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as a favorite
Texas Tech: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Georgia Tech at Georgia, 12:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after a win by 21 or more points
Georgia: 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) against ACC opponents

Kansas at Kansas State, 4:00 ET
Kansas: 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game
Kansas St: 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a conference game

BYU at California, 3:30 ET
BYU: 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite
California: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival

Oregon at Oregon State, 3:30 ET
Oregon: 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game
Oregon State: 1-5 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

Michigan State at Penn State, 3:30 ET
Michigan St: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents
Penn St: 8-20 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game

Auburn at Alabama, 7:45 ET
Auburn: 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Alabama: 21-7 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Florida at Florida State, 3:30 ET
Florida: 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) after a 2 game home stand
Florida State: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Nevada at UNLV, 10:30 ET
Nevada: 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
UNLV: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games

UL Monroe at Georgia Southern, 6:00 ET
UL Monroe: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game
Georgia S: 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games

South Carolina at Clemson, 7:00 ET
South Carolina: 9-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Clemson: 1-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game

Hawaii at Fresno State, 7:00 ET
Hawaii: 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game
Fresno State: 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival

Utah at Colorado, 7:00 ET
Utah: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers
Colorado: 9-28 ATS (-21.8 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game

Connecticut at Memphis, 4:00 ET
Connecticut: 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after scoring 9 points or less last game
Memphis: 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival

Kentucky at Louisville, 7:00 ET
Kentucky: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Louisville: 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs

Mississippi State at Mississippi, 3:30 ET
Mississippi St: 6-1 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game
Mississippi: 9-2 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers

Mid Tennessee State at Utep, 7:00 ET
Mid Tennessee St: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival
Utep: 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

UL Lafayette at Troy, 12:30 ET
UL Lafayette: 5-1 ATS after playing a conference game
Troy: 5-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

North Texas at Tex San Antonio, 12:00 ET
N Texas: 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game
Tex San Antonio: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Notre Dame at USC, 8:00 ET
Notre Dame: 34-18 UNDER as a road underdog
USC: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Win Total Update

Twelve weeks of the NFL regular season are in the books and bettors investing in “Win Total” wagers have now seen two outcomes cash.

The first instance occured two weeks ago as Arizona defeated St. Louis 31-14 for its eighth victory of the season. Oddsmakers had the Cardinals listed at 7.5 victories for the regular season.

This past Sunday in Week 12, Cleveland earned its seventh win of the season as it defeated Atlanta 26-24 with a game-winning field goal as time expired.

In the next few weeks, we'll start to see more outcomes finalize.

On the Cusp (Record)

Dallas (8-3) – OVER 8
Detroit (7-4) – OVER 8
Philadelphia (8-3) – OVER 9
N.Y. Giants (3-8) – UNDER 8
Chicago (5-6) – UNDER 8.5
New Orleans (4-7) – UNDER 9.5
Oakland (1-10) – UNDER 5
Tampa Bay (2-9) – UNDER 7

Below is a list of all 32 teams in the NFL and if they project to finish OVER or UNDER their posted win total. EVEN teams are too close to call after 12 weeks.


NFL WIN TOTALS COURTESY OF SPORTSBOOK.AG

Team Win Total Current Record Projection
ARIZONA 7.5 9-2
ATLANTA 8 4-7
BALTIMORE 8.5 7-4
BUFFALO 6.5 6-5
CAROLINA 8.5 3-7-1
CHICAGO 8.5 5-6
CINCINNATI 9 7-3-1
CLEVELAND 6.5 7-4
DALLAS 8 8-3
DENVER 11 8-3
DETROIT 8 7-4
GREEN BAY 10 8-3
HOUSTON 8 5-6
INDIANAPOLIS 9.5 7-4
JACKSONVILLE 4.5 1-10
KANSAS CITY 8.5 7-4
MIAMI 7.5 6-5
MINNESOTA 7 4-7
NEW ENGLAND 10.5 9-2
NEW ORLEANS 9.5 4-7
N.Y. GIANTS 7 3-8
N.Y. JETS 6.5 2-9
OAKLAND 5 1-10
PHILADELPHIA 9 8-3
PITTSBURGH 8.5 7-4
ST. LOUIS 7 4-7
SAN DIEGO 8 7-4
SAN FRANCISCO 11 7-4
SEATTLE 11 7-4
TAMPA BAY 7 2-9
TENNESSEE 6.5 2-9
WASHINGTON 7 3-8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 13
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 13!

(Rotation #457) San Diego +5.5 – You just get the feeling that the Chargers are going to win this game just to spite square bettors. The Bolts have a history of playing well on the East Coast, and they are going to be up against it here in Baltimore against the Ravens, who are coming off of the biggest win of the season in New Orleans on Monday Night Football. QB Philip Rivers hasn't played well, and about the only thing that is keeping this team going is its running game and its defense. That defense came up with the play of the season last week when it managed to get an interception on the goal line to preserve a win against the St. Louis Rams. This could be another close one, and sharp bettors know it.

Opening Line: San Diego +5.5
Current Line: San Diego +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Baltimore

(Rotation #462) Tampa Bay +3.5 – It feels like teams like the Bucs are sharp every week, especially when they are at home and are getting just a few points against playoff teams. This week, matters are made worse for Tampa Bay because it is in the NFC South playing against an AFC North team. The NFC South is just 1-10-1 this year in these intra-conference games, but the good news is that Tampa Bay has the one win, and the Bengals are responsible for the one tie. The Bengals could get caught looking ahead in this game; they have a ton of big games in the last month of the season, and this is supposed to be the de facto "bye week" of the bunch.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +4
Current Line: Tampa Bay +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 78% on Cincinnati

(Rotation #476) New York +6 – The Jets are playing at home on Monday Night Football this week, and they get a Miami team which is coming off of a heartbreaking loss on the road to the Denver Broncos. The question in our mind is whether the Fins are going to get off of the mat and get up for the Jets, who probably have the worst team in the NFL. We know that quarterback play isn't going to help out New York all that much; the team is switching back to QB Geno Smith in favor of QB Michael Vick, and Smith has already proven to us that he isn't a starting quarterback. That said, for the most part, if the Jets don't get their doors blown off in the first half, they tend to stick around in games. This could be another one of those outings against a Miami team which just isn't built to blow people away.

Opening Line: New York +6
Current Line: New York +6
Public Betting Percentage: 72% on Miami

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 13
By Marc Lawrence

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

With the Alabama Tide high and rolling atop the playoff committee poll, and the final full week of college football games on tap this week, it’s crunch time for many tams looking to earn the best bowl bid possible.

Until the final results are in, let’s review teams and their season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, November 24th, unless noted otherwise.

OIL AND VINEGAR

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We affectionately refer to them as ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

College Football: Texas San Antonio and Utah.

NFL: St. Louis

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that still quality on ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, and with the list shortening by the week, here’s this year’s current list.

ALERT: ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Baylor, Boise State, East Carolina, Georgia Tech, *Marshall, Mississippi State, *Ohio State, TCU and Western Michigan.

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, *SMU, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

This week we find Georgia Tech in the ‘Play On’ dog list, with no teams appearing on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

These are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:

College Football: Arizona State

NFL: Chicago Bears

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

College Football: Washington State

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TRENDING THIS WEEK

The Washington Redskins are 11-0 ATS in their seventh away game of the season.

Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians is 7-0 SU and ATS in non-division games in his NFL career when his team is off a SU loss.

The New Orleans Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games after playing on Monday night.

The New England Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS as underdogs this season.

The Denver Broncos are 0-7 ATS in Sunday night games against an opponent off a SU and ATS loss.

The Miami Dolphins are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five Monday Night games.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 29-0 SU and 21-8 ATS as a non-division favorite, including 5-0 SU and ATS versus AFC West opponents.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
By Chris David

Thanksgiving Day is upon us which means NFL total bettors have three opportunities to cash tickets this Thursday. The past two years, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 6-0 and five of those games had 50 or more combined points posted. Will the pendulum swing back this season? I’ll try to help answer that question below but make a note that all three matchups this year are divisional battles and I like to believe that familiarity favors defense.

Be sure to check back this weekend as I’ll recap Week 12 and preview the remainder of Week 13. For now, let’s break down the games.

Chicago at Detroit (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)

In the last eight regular season matchups between these teams, the ‘over/under’ has gone 4-4. At Ford Field, the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 during this span.

Last season, the totals were 48 and 52 points. I bring that up because this year’s number opened at 46 ½ and you can see that the oddsmakers have adjusted to both teams, especially the Lions. The Lions have watched the ‘under’ go 9-2 this season and that includes a 5-1 mark at home.

Despite getting humbled at New England last Sunday, Detroit’s defense is allowing 17.3 points per game, which is ranked first in the NFL. Offensively, the Lions have been banged up with key injuries (Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush) all season and the production (17.9 PPG) has seriously dropped. The Lions averaged 24.7 PPG in 2013 and 23.2 PPG in 2012.

Detroit might be able to get things going this week as they face Chicago, who is allowing 27.5 PPG and that number gets worse on the road (31.5 PPG). Also, make a note that the Bears unit had three starters get hurt last Sunday and they’re all listed as ‘questionable’ for Thursday. INJURY REPORT

Chicago enters this game with two straight wins and even though the defense only allowed 13 points in each contest, neither of those victories (Vikings, Bucs) were impressive. Prior to those wins, Chicago gave up 51 and 55 points.

The difference? Brady and Rodgers vs. Bridgewater and McCown. The Lions’ Matthew Stafford falls somewhere in between that quartet and you can also put Jay Cutler into that “middle of the pack” group too.

As many bettors know, Cutler is hit or miss. However, the Bears are averaging more points on the road (23.8 PPG) than at home (18.6 PPG) this season. Those offensive numbers have helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 in Chicago’s first six games on the road.

Philadelphia at Dallas (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Of the three games slated for the holiday, this is the expected shootout. The total opened 54 and has jumped to 55 at most shops and will probably rise more at kickoff.

The Eagles (8-3) and Cowboys (6-4-1) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and those results can be attributed to the offensive units. Philadelphia is averaging 31.1 PPG, ranked third in the league. The Eagles are averaging 72.9 plays per game, which is the fastest pace in the league. Dallas doesn’t push the tempo like Philadelphia (63.3 plays per game) but it’s still averaging 26.5 PPG.

Defensively, Philadelphia is the worst of the two units. The Eagles are allowing 25 PPG and that number creeps up to 30.2 PPG on the road. The pace of the offense doesn’t help the defense at all and neither do the mistakes by the offense. Philadelphia has coughed up the ball a league-worst 27 times this season, which makes you wonder how this team is 8-3. As much as you hear the praise for QB Mark Sanchez, it should be noted that he’s been picked off six times in the four games he’s played.

Turnovers can be either good or bad for total bettors and something you can’t handicap. However, the Eagles’ tendencies make you believe you’ll see at least one on Thursday.

If you look at how Dallas has performed on Thanksgiving Day, it’s certainly hard to make a case for the ‘under’ in this matchup.

Last season the ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two regular season matchups, which included the Eagles’ 24-22 win in Week 17 over the Cowboys. For those of you who forgot, QB Tony Romo sat out that game.

Seattle at San Francisco (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

The NFL really outdid itself by scheduling a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship on Thanksgiving and they’re hoping they can get a repeat performance of that drama-filled matchup. Seattle earned a 23-17 win over San Francisco and the game barely went ‘under’ (40.5) the closing total. The two regular season matchups between the pair also cashed ‘under’ tickets.

CG Technology in Las Vegas opened this week’s matchup at 42 and the pros gobbled (pun intended) that number up and bet it down to 40 quickly. As of Wednesday, the number fell to 39 ½ at some shops.

Playing the ‘under’ in this matchup doesn’t leave you with much wiggle room and if that’s the direction you’re leaning, be prepared to sweat out the full 60 minutes.

Current form is a big part of my handicapping and all signs point to a defensive slugfest. In their last three games, both Seattle (14.7 PPG) and San Francisco (15.7 PPG) have been very solid defensively.

The Seahawks offense is a completely different team on the road (21.4 PPG) than at home (28.7 PPG) this season. San Francisco has been held to 17 points or less in four of its last five games and two of those results came at home. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 at the 49ers new home of Levi’s Stadium.

This will be the ninth season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. In the first eight matchups, total bettors have seen a stalemate at 4-4. For those wondering, home teams have gone 6-2 during this span.

The Seahawks haven’t played on the holiday since 2008 when they lost 34-9 at Dallas. In 2011, the 49ers lost 16-6 at Baltimore.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve said before on this holiday, if you’re reading this piece, then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Chicago-Detroit 47

Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 39 ½

Best Team Total: Under 20 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 38 Chicago-Detroit
Under 64 Philadelphia-Dallas
Under 48 ½ Seattle-San Francisco

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

CHICAGO BEARS (5-6) at DETROIT LIONS (7-4)

TV/Time:CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Detroit -7, Total: 47

The Bears look to win their third straight game when they visit the struggling Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago is coming off a 21-13 home victory over the Buccaneers, which marked its second straight 21-13 win after topping the Vikings by that same score in Week 11. Detroit, meanwhile, has scored just 15 points during a two-game losing skid, falling 34-9 at New England last week. The team is now 1-4 ATS in its past five contests.

Last season, the Lions won-and-covered in both meetings with the Bears, and are 4-2 SU (but only 2-4 ATS) as the host in this series since 2008. This matchup features a Detroit defense that is top-10 in the league at defending the pass going up against Chicago QB Jay Cutler, who can be a turnover machine when he is thrown off his game.

The Lions are 1-10 ATS off a non-conference game over the past three seasons, but get to face a Bears team that is 0-7 ATS after having won two out of its previous three games in the past two seasons.

Chicago is dealing with a slew of defensive injuries with CB Kyle Fuller (knee), LB Lance Briggs (groin), DE Trevor Scott (knee) and LB Darryl Sharpton (hamstring) all listed as questionable for Thursday. After sitting out last week, RB Reggie Bush (ankle) is expected to give it a go for the Lions in this one, but OLs Larry Warford and Riley Reiff are not likely to play due to knee injuries.

The Bears have won two straight games and still have a small chance of making the playoffs, but they’ll need to beat the Lions on Thursday. One player who will need to play well in this game is QB Jay Cutler (2,825 pass yards, 22 TD, 12 INT), who has been excellent against the Lions in recent years. Over the past five seasons, Cutler is 7-4 SU with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in 11 meetings with the Lions. In his past five trips to Detroit, he has thrown for 266.6 yards per game with nine total touchdowns and just three interceptions. As long as he can limit mistakes, the Bears will have a chance to pull off the upset.

WR Alshon Jeffery (58 rec, 783 yards, 5 TD) has been Cutler’s go-to-guy in recent weeks. Over the past three games, Jeffery has 19 catches for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He should be able to make some plays against a defense that really struggled with the Patriots on Sunday. RB Matt Forte (822 rush yards, 5 TD) has been this team’s best player all season long. Over the past two weeks, he has rushed for 206 yards and two touchdowns while catching 11 passes for 81 yards. The Lions do, however, have the best rushing defense in football and could really give him some trouble on Thursday.

The Lions have really struggled recently and are coming off of an embarrassing 34-9 road loss to the Patriots. This Lions offense has not scored a touchdown in two weeks and will really need QB Matthew Stafford (2,943 pass yards, 13 TD, 10 INT) to break out of his slump. Over the past two weeks, Stafford has thrown two interceptions while not being able to find the end zone.

WR Calvin Johnson (38 rec, 578 yards, 3 TD) has caught just nine passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns during the two-game losing skid. Stafford and Johnson will need to regain the magic they once had in this division game or they could be in danger of missing the playoffs after an impressive start to this season. RB Reggie Bush (191 rush yards, 1 TD) should return for this game, and will add some much-needed explosiveness to this offense. Bush rushed for more than 100 yards in each of the Lions’ two victories over the Bears last season.

Chicago has trouble dealing with his shiftiness and the Lions could really use him back. Defensively this team is still one of the best in the league, but has been lit up for 655 passing yards during the two-game losing skid. Detroit will need to do a better job defending the pass against Chicago.


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (8-3)

TV/Time: FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Dallas -3, Total: 54.5

Two rivals will fight for the top spot in the NFC East on Thursday when the Eagles visit the Cowboys.

Philadelphia is coming off of a 43-24 victory over the Titans as an 11-point home favorite, making the team 5-2 (SU and ATS) in the past seven games. Meanwhile, Dallas is only 1-3 ATS in its past four contests, but picked up a crucial SU road win over the 4-point underdog Giants last week by a 31-28 score.

These division rivals have not met this season, but the Cowboys have won three of the past four meetings (SU and ATS), with the lone loss coming at home on Dec. 29 last season. Dallas is 3-0 ATS after a road victory and 2-0 ATS after a win by six or less points this season, but is just 14-18 ATS when facing a conference opponent over the past three seasons. Philadelphia has been even worse in the NFC, going 12-19 ATS versus conference opponents in the same span. The Eagles are, however, 23-10 ATS versus excellent offenses (6+ yards per play) in the second half of the season since 1992.

The only new injury for either team is Cowboys DB Tyler Patmon (knee), who is considered questionable for Thursday.

The Eagles are coming off of a blowout victory and RB LeSean McCoy (859 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 3 TD) finally had a breakout game, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. McCoy had rushed for 88 yards against the Packers the game before and is finally running the ball close to the level he did last season when he led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards. He should be able to find some holes against this Cowboys defense that he has gained 872 total yards against over nine career meetings.

QB Mark Sanchez (1,187 pass yards, 7 TD, 6 INT) threw for 307 yards and a touchdown against the Titans, but he continues to turn the ball over at an alarming rate. He threw two interceptions in the game and has now tossed six picks in his four games quarterbacking the Eagles. He’ll need to limit his mistakes going forward or he’ll really hold this team back. WR Jordan Matthews (50 rec, 635 yards, 6 TD) is Sanchez’s favorite receiver. He’s been targeted at least eight times in all three of Sanchez’s starts and has delivered with 18 receptions for 322 yards and three touchdowns in those games.

The Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers in the game and also had a kick return touchdown to take a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. Philly has allowed 375.3 total yards per game this season (26th in NFL), including surrendering 266.3 passing YPG (30th in league).

The Cowboys are fresh off a big victory over the Giants and now turn their attention to Thursday's game with huge playoff implications. QB Tony Romo (2,519 pass yards, 22 TD, 6 INT) had one of his best games of the year, throwing for 275 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also led the Cowboys on a game-winning drive, where he connected with WR Dez Bryant (63 rec, 879 yards, 10 TD) on a 13-yard TD pass with just over a minute to go. Bryant finished with seven receptions for 86 yards and two touchdowns in the game, but Romo is the real story for this team as he has now thrown for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games since returning from a back injury. Romo has played well in this rivalry, going 8-5 SU as a starter in this series, while throwing for 3,069 yards (236 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 19 TD and 13 INT. Bryant has given the Eagles all kinds of trouble in the past two seasons, as he has caught 25 passes for 394 yards and 4 TD in those four meetings.

Romo and Bryant have lifted this team recently and are providing the touchdowns that the NFL's leading rusher, RB DeMarco Murray (1,354 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 7 TD) is missing in recent weeks. Murray hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7, but he has rushed for at least 100 yards in 10 of 11 games this season. He has not run very well in the past two seasons of this series, gaining only 131 yards on 40 carries (3.3 YPC) with one touchdown and one lost fumble.

This Dallas defense was miserable in the first half against the Giants, allowing 21 points, but the unit did regroup and hold New York to just seven points in the second half. The Cowboys have forced at least one turnover in 10 straight games, and will be looking to force Mark Sanchez into some low percentage throws on Thursday, But they have also allowed 278 passing YPG in the past four games and 7.4 net yards per passing attempt this season (26th in NFL). The run defense has played very well recently though, holding five of the past six opponents to less than 105 rushing yards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thanksgiving Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Bears at Lions (-7, 47) – 12:30 PM EST

For the first time since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, no AFC teams are playing on Thanksgiving. The Lions are a staple on Turkey Day, but Detroit has struggled in this showcase contest for a very long time. From 2004-2012, the Lions couldn’t buy a victory on Thanksgiving, losing nine straight times, including eight by double-digits. However, Detroit snapped that dubious skid last November by routing Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, 40-10. Now, the Lions are favored on consecutive Thanksgivings since 1999 and 2000.

Detroit (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) enters Thursday’s action one game behind Green Bay in the NFC North race, as the Lions are coming off consecutive defeats at Arizona and New England. How bad has Detroit’s offense been recently? The Lions haven’t reached the end zone in the past two games, settling for five field goals, while quarterback Matthew Stafford has been intercepted twice with no touchdowns. In last week’s loss to the Patriots, the stout Detroit defense allowed 439 yards, while Tom Brady torched the secondary for 349 yards and two touchdowns.

The Bears (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) were left for dead after getting trounced at New England and Green Bay in back-to-back blowouts, getting outscored, 106-37 to fall to 3-6. However, Chicago has rebounded at home with victories over Minnesota and Tampa Bay to creep closer to the .500 mark. Both wins came by a 21-13 margin at Soldier Field, as Chicago erased a 10-0 deficit in last Sunday’s triumph over Tampa Bay. The Bears racked up just 204 yards of offense, but a pair of Matt Forte touchdowns in the second half gave Chicago only its second two-game winning streak of the season.

Last season, the Lions swept the season series from the Bears for the first time since 2007. Detroit outlasted Chicago in the first matchup last September, 40-32 as three-point home favorites, while Jay Cutler threw a pair of touchdown passes in the final four minutes to make the final look closer. The Lions forced four turnovers, while kicking four field goals and scoring a defensive touchdown.

The second matchup at Soldier Field in November saw less points, as Detroit held on for a 21-19 win as one-point road favorites. Stafford threw three touchdown passes, while Reggie Bush rushed for over 100 yards for the second straight time against Chicago. Bush missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but is listed as questionable for Thursday’s contest.

Coming home is a positive thing for the Lions, who own a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record at Ford Field this season. The lone loss came to the Bills in Week 5 after Detroit blew a 14-0 lead in a 17-14 setback. Since beating the Giants and Packers by double-digits, the last three home games for the Lions have been decided by a total of eight points, including close victories over the Saints and Dolphins.

Chicago began the season not being able to win at home and looking unstoppable on the road. However, those roles have flipped as Marc Trestman’s team has lost three of its past four games on the highway since September wins over the 49ers and Jets. In three road games with totals listed below 50, the Bears have gone ‘over’ each time, while posting a 5-1 ‘over’ record away from Soldier Field this season.

Eagles at Cowboys (-3 ½, 55 ½) – 4:30 PM EST

The two top teams in the NFC East meet for the first time this season with plenty of important circumstances on the line. Philadelphia makes its first trip to Dallas on Thanksgiving since 1989, when the Eagles shut out the Cowboys, 27-0. The Eagles look to make another big impression on Turkey Day with first place on the line as there is no guarantee of this division getting two teams in the playoffs.

Entering Thursday’s action, both the Eagles and Cowboys are 8-3, but the winner of the Seattle/San Francisco matchup improves to 8-4, as the Niners have beaten both Philadelphia and Dallas this season, which is important for tie-breaker purposes. However, Dallas won at Seattle last month, while Philadelphia and Seattle meet in Week 14 at Lincoln Financial Field.

Philadelphia (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) picked up its sixth home win in six tries last Sunday, routing Tennessee, 43-24 as 11-point favorites. Mark Sanchez improved to 2-1 in the starting role since taking over for the injured Nick Foles at quarterback, as the former USC standout threw for 307 yards, but was intercepted twice by the Titans. LeSean McCoy broke the 100-yard rushing mark for only the third time this season with 130 yards and just his third touchdown on the ground.

The Cowboys (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) return home for the first time in nearly four weeks following a blowout of Jacksonville in London, then rallying past the Giants last Sunday night, 31-28. Most fans would only remember rookie Odell Beckham’s amazing one-hand touchdown catch to give New York a 14-3 lead, but Dallas outscored the Giants, 21-7 late, capped off by Tony Romo’s second touchdown connection of the night with Dez Bryant. Dallas swept the season series from New York, while improving to 2-1 in the division, but failed to cover for the first time in four games away from Cowboys Stadium.

Since 2006, the Cowboys have won six of eight games on Thanksgiving, including last season’s 31-24 victory over the Raiders as 10-point favorites. Dallas looks to turn around its luck at home after losing a pair of games in Arlington to Washington and Arizona, while Romo sat out the Cardinals defeat in Week 9 with a back injury.

Last season, the road team won each meeting, as the Eagles knocked off the Cowboys, 24-22 last December. Dallas covered as 7 ½-point home ‘dogs with a late Bryant touchdown catch, as both starting quarterbacks in that game (Foles and Kyle Orton) aren’t playing this time around. The Eagles have won three of the past four visits to the Lone Star State, but Philadelphia is just 2-3 on the road this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seahawks, 49ers battle

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-4) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (7-4)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Even, Total: 40

In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship, two teams that are in the thick of the playoff race will clash Thursday night when the 49ers host the Seahawks.

Seattle beat the Cardinals 19-3 last week to improve to 4-1 SU (2-3 ATS) in its past five games, while San Francisco escaped past the Redskins 17-13 at home to win its third straight contest (2-1 ATS). Both of these teams will be desperate for a victory in this game, as they’re both competing for what could be the same spot in the playoffs. The Seahawks have gotten the best of the 49ers recently, winning three of the past four meetings SU and covering in all of them, including the 23-17 win in the NFC title game in January. Seattle has also covered in six straight in this series. However, San Francisco has won five straight home meetings in this series dating back to 2009.

This matchup should be low scoring as both teams are top-10 in scoring defense. The Seahawks are 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons and 15-6 ATS off a home win in that timeframe. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 15-6 ATS after playing a game at home over the past three seasons and 18-7 ATS versus good offenses (350+ YPG) under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Seattle could be thin up front with C Max Unger (knee) and G James Carpenter (ankle) both questionable, while NT Glenn Dorsey (arm), CB Tramaine Brock (hamstring) and OT Anthony Davis (concussion) are all listed as questionable for the 49ers.

The Seahawks picked up a big victory over the Cardinals on Sunday and their defense really stepped it up in that game, by not allowing a touchdown and holding the Cardinals to just 204 total yards. They are now allowing just 208.5 passing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and 88.4 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL). They’ll need to be prepared to stop the run against this 49ers team, but they’ve been very sound doing so in recent weeks. Offensively, QB Russell Wilson (2,230 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT) will need to throw the ball well against this San Francisco defense. Wilson threw for 211 yards and a touchdown on 17-of-22 passing in the win over Arizona. He was very efficient and made the throws he needed to in order to win the game. He also rushed for 73 yards on just 10 carries. If Wilson is playing that well then this team is extremely tough to beat.

One guy who wasn’t very productive against the Cardinals was RB Marshawn Lynch (852 yards, 9 TD). Lynch had been on a tear heading into the game, but rushed for just 39 yards on 15 carries against what is one of the better rushing defenses in the league. This 49ers team is equally as tough against the run, but Lynch galloped for 109 yards on 22 carries (5.0 YPC) and 1 TD in the NFC Championship Game and scored five total touchdowns in the three meetings with San Francisco last year.

The 49ers have had their rough patches this season, but they’ve now won three straight after hanging on to beat the Redskins last week. This defense has been a handful to play against this season, allowing just 207.2 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and 92.9 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL). Last week, this unit held the Redskins to just 213 total yards, and this game has the makings of a defensive slugfest. One player who stepped up in a big way offensively was WR Anquan Boldin (65 rec, 825 yards, 4 TD). People continue to rule the 34-year-old out because of his age, but he has not stopped producing this season. He had nine catches for 137 yards and a touchdown last week, and had a team-high 53 receiving yards and touchdown in the NFC title game loss in Seattle.

QB Colin Kaepernick (2,615 pass yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) has been finding Boldin all over the field, but he’ll need to do a better job of spreading it around against Seattle’s zone-based defense. In the Jan. 19 defeat in this series, he threw for only 153 yards (6.4 YPC) and a pair of interceptions. Anything he can add on the ground will help his team as well, but he may need to do a lot more than planned if RB Frank Gore (684 rush yards, 2 TD) isn’t running the ball effectively again. Gore rushed for just 36 yards on 12 carries against the Redskins and also lost a fumble in the game. The 49ers will likely give him a big chance to redeem himself as long as he’s 100 percent recovered from his banged up knee. Gore found no running room in the NFC Championship loss, carrying the football 11 times for a pathetic 14 yards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: No respect for underrated Rams in Week 13
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet on now

Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-7)

If any losing team deserves a pat on the back this season, it’s the Rams. Given up for dead after Sam Bradford was lost for the season, St. Louis has resisted the urge to cut and run and may have the best 4-7 record in NFL history, with wins over Denver, San Francisco (road) and Seattle.

And the Rams were one possession away from victories over San Diego, Dallas and Philadelphia. So with a lot of luck they could be 7-4 and still in the hunt in the NFC West.

Playing at home, the Rams are clearly more than a TD better than Oakland on the road and, unless something strange happens, St. Louis should cover the seven.

Spread to wait on

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

If this game was scheduled for Week 10 and not Week 12, the Lions would have been laying 12 or 13. But much has happened since then – all good for the Bears (two straight wins) and all bad for the Lions.

Detroit simply can’t score anymore, and no one seems to be able to figure out why. Eight quarters without a touchdown have raised concerns about whether the Lions are even playoff material, let alone Super Bowl contenders.

Not only that, but now offensive lineman Dominic Raiola is taking heat after admitting that he intentionally tried to injure a Patriots player late in the Lions’ loss at New England. It might be a good idea to see what kind of attitude the Lions bring to practice this week before laying down any cash on this Thanksgiving Day game either way.

Total to watch

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (58)

The Packers are scoring a ton of points at home – 108 in the last two at Lambeau Field, and averaging nearly 44. New England’s offense appears just as unstoppable, with weapons seemingly everywhere. The two best quarterbacks in the league are also on display Sunday.

It all adds up to a ridiculously high college-like total. But it’s doubtful that Bill Belichick has any interest in getting involved in an up-and-down-the-field game, so bettors might want to take a hard look at an Under play.

Books like this as a field-goal game anyway, so if this is close at halftime, conservative playcalling late in the game might tend to keep this one from getting completely out of hand.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL scores are dropping: Where to find best Under value
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

At first glance, Week 11 in the NFL schedule appeared to be an anomaly in this day and age of pass-first, up-tempo offenses.

With record-setting quarterbacks in Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers under center, as well as a more-than-capable Mark Sanchez running Chip Kelly’s system and Tom Brady setting the league on fire with each passing week, one would assume NFL scoreboards were being lit up like the Las Vegas Strip on the Fourth of July.

Yet, when the dust had settled on Week 11, the 14 contests played in this era of offensive firepower combined to average a grand total of just 37.57 points per game, with five of those matchups checking in at a total of 30 or fewer points

Unders went 10-4 - much to the delight of Vegas bookmakers - raising the question of whether or not this defensive resurgence would be a continuing trend through the remainder of the regular season.

Perhaps bookmakers who were shading totals towards the Over in order to counteract the public’s thirst for capitalizing on scoring would present and opportunity for Under bettors to seize.

Week 12 again saw Unders emerge victorious, with the Sunday afternoon games going 4-7 Over/Under. Week 12 finished with a razor-thin 7-8 O/U lean that put Unders at a very profitable 17-10 over the last two weeks, lending a bit more credence to the fact that perhaps the league’s defenses were beginning to hit their collective stride.

Is some combination of the cold weather and mounting injuries triggering a decrease in scoring?

First, let’s take a look at the month-by-month team scoring averages for the 2014 season:

September: 23.09 points per game
October: 23.48 points per game
November: 21.98 points per game

As you can no doubt see, scoring is down for the month of November. But have the bookmakers kept pace? Here’s a look at the average NFL total by month for the 2014 campaign:

September: 45.71 points per game
October: 46.31 points per game
November: 46.37 points per game

Not only has scoring dropped off by approximately 1.5 points per team per game from October to November, but the average NFL total has increased by more than half a point from September to November.

This data appears to explain the recent success of Unders, but like all things in the modern sports betting era, windows of opportunity don’t stay open for that long. If recent history is any indicator, the window may be already shut tight.

NFL scoring has decreased from the month of November to the month of December in four of the past five seasons. And of those four seasons in which scoring dropped, the bookmakers followed suit by decreasing their totals for the month of December in three instances, once again affirming the harsh reality that it’s tough to get anything past these guys.

However, that doesn’t mean there’s no possible way to tip the scales back in our favor. Through 12 weeks, Overs have gone 89-86 (.508). While that appears to be a virtual perfect balance, take a look at the following breakdown of 2014 totals:

Thursday night games: 8-4 (.666) O/U
Sunday night games: 11-1 (.916) O/U
Monday night games: 10-4 (.714) O/U

The moral of the story: While Overs have gone 89-86 on the season, they are a staggering 29-9 (.763) during primetime games. That means that Unders have gone 77-66 (.566) on Sunday afternoons.

Happy hunting.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL bloggers debate who will cover Thanksgiving Day

Thanksgiving is a time for family and friends, which is why we’ve brought together some of the top NFL bloggers on the web and asked them to give one reason why their team will not only win but cover the spread on Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7, 47)

WHY THE BEARS WILL COVER

Adam Oestmann is the managing editor for Chicago Bears Huddle. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @BearsHuddle.

The Chicago Bears have played some pretty bad football this season, I’ll admit. But as we all know, wins and losses in the NFL often share a direct correlation to the turnover battle. For his part, Lions’ QB Matt Stafford has thrown a pick in each of his last six games vs. the Bears (four on one occasion). In Jay Cutler’s 10 career games vs. Detroit, he has thrown a pick in just three of those contests. With the Bears’ defense coming off a second game this season in which they generated four takeaways, it’s not at all crazy to think we could see an otherwise suspect Bears team take a must-win in Detroit.

WHY THE LIONS WILL COVER

Sean Yuille is the managing editor for Pride of Detroit. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @PrideOfDetroit.

Quite simply, the defensive matchup is why the Lions will cover against the Bears. The Lions own one of the NFL's top defenses, and although Chicago has some dangerous players on offense, there's just not enough there for them to overcome Teryl Austin's defense. What's more, the Bears defense is not good enough to shut down Matthew Stafford and Co. for an entire game. It's true that the Lions have had a lot of struggles on offense this season, but the matchups on paper all seem to favor Detroit.


Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 54.5)

WHY THE EAGLES WILL COVER

Brandon Gowton writes for Bleeding Green Nation. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @BleedingGreen.

The Eagles match up very well against what the Dallas Cowboys like to do on offense, which is control the clock and run the ball with NFL leading rusher DeMarco Murray. Philadelphia’s run defense ranks ninth in yards per rush attempt allowed (3.9) and has the personnel to battle against the Cowboys’ strong offensive line. The Birds have also proved they can pressure the quarterback; they rank second in the league in sack percentage. Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, who has already been dealing with a back injury, is bound to take a beating.

WHY THE COWBOYS WILL COVER

K.D. Drummond is a senior columnist for CowboysHQ. He can be followed on Twitter @KDP10For10.

The Cowboys will cover if they can control the Eagles special teams units. Dallas owns the advantage over the Eagles in most categories. Dallas dominates Philadelphia in Passer Rating Differential and Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Differential; two advanced metrics with the highest correlation to winning other than Scoring Differential. The counter for the Eagles' high rate of offensive plays is to dominate time of possession and that is something that Dallas excels in. The running game of DeMarco Murray behind the Cowboys monstrous offensive line should be enough to force single coverage on Dez Bryant. On defense, Dallas is still having trouble stopping the pass. They have done an admirable job stopping the run, however, and with the difficulties Philly has had this season should see that trend continue. Dallas is missing special teams ace Jeff Heath, so keeping a lid on Darren Sproles in the return game will be key. Tony Romo has won three straight over the Eagles with a 113.9 QB Rating over that stretch. Mark Sanchez's teams are 4-9 on the road against opponents with winning records. Dallas wins, 30-21.


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1, 39.5)

WHY THE SEAHAWKS WILL COVER

Rob Davies writes for Field Gulls. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @FieldGulls.

What a time for the Seahawks to properly regain their swagger. Their defense strangled and stymied Arizona on Sunday and it comes as no surprise that it coincided with the return of Bobby Wagner at the center of the defense. Wagner was having a stellar season before his turf toe injury and continued in the same vein versus the Cardinals. With the loss of Brandon Mebane for the year, Wagner's return is perfectly timed and as probably the freshest player on the Seahawks right now, he shouldn't be affected by the short week. In fact, he'll be chomping at the bit at the prospect of stopping Frank Gore in his tracks. In addition, the Seahawks are 5-0 ATS (including the playoffs) versus the 49ers in the Russell Wilson era.

WHY THE 49ers WILL COVER

Ryan Sakamoto is the founder/CEO of Niner Fans. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @NinerFans.

Coaches coach and players play but no coach has been more instrumental to their team's success than 49ers' defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. A coordinator that has been short-handed since the start of the season, Fangio has somehow orchestrated yet another top five defense in the NFL. A defense that currently ranks No. 2 in the NFL, you have to give credit to Fangio for putting his players in the best position to make plays. Look for that to continue as the 49ers tackle the Seahawks in what I predict to be a defensive struggle all while winning the turnover battle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Thanksgiving Day betting preview

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7, 47)

The Detroit Lions are rapidly losing ground in the NFC North and will try to avoid a third straight loss when they host the Chicago Bears in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Lions had the misfortune of playing a pair of division leaders in back-to-back weeks and had no answers on offense against the Arizona Cardinals or New England Patriots. The Bears are pulling out of their own funk with back-to-back wins as they try to get back into the race.

Detroit has been leaning heavily on its defense all season but showed some cracks in the unit while getting blasted 34-9 by the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Patriots steered away from the Lions’ strength along the defensive line with a series of quick passes – a strategy Chicago has the personnel to employ. The Bears' defense was a big question mark after surrendering a combined 106 points in back-to-back losses to New England and Green Bay but held Minnesota and Tampa Bay to a total of 26 in the last two contests.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw the Lions favored by 6.5, before jumping to Detroit -7 Monday. An opening total of 46.5 has since jumped as high as 47 before resting at 47 on Wednesday.

INJURY REPORT: Bears - LB Lance Briggs (Ques-Groin), CB Kyle Fuller (Doub-Knee) Lions - RB Reggie Bush (Prob-Ankle), WR Calvin Johnson (Prob-Ankle), T Riley Reiff (Ques-Leg), LB Ashlee Palmer (Ques-Concussion)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "For the first time in NFL history all three Thanksgiving Day games feature an NFC filled lineup. The Lions will look to put a halt to a two-game losing skid while the Bears hope to extend a two-game winning streak in the opening game. Not good news for Detroit considering that teams off a pair of wins are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS on Turkey Day when facing an opponent off a pair of losses. Coupled with the Lions recent 1-9 SU mark on Thanksgiving Day, an upset would be no surprise." - Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE BEARS (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Chicago’s offense has been under some scrutiny and it generated only 68 yards while going scoreless in the first half on Sunday before taking advantage of some Tampa Bay turnovers to put up 21 third-quarter points in the 21-13 triumph. “Win or loss, we’re always trying to improve on offense,” quarterback Jay Cutler said on his radio show on ESPN 1000 on Monday. “We’re always looking at what we did wrong. This week’s a little bit different because we’ve got to move on.” The most consistent part of the offense has been running back Matt Forte, who could become a bigger part of the passing game this week as the Bears take on the NFL’s top-ranked rush defense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 2-9 O/U): Matthew Stafford went 18-of-46 for a career-worst 39.1 completion percentage against New England but only some of that can be blamed on poor throws, as Detroit's receivers had several notable drops in the red zone. “We’ve got to keep working at it, we’ve got to keep concentrating on it,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell told reporters of the drops. “Those are the things that stop drives and they certainly did stop some drives for us and kept us from getting a couple of scores.” Star receiver Calvin Johnson was targeted a total of 22 time in the last two games but only made nine catches for 117 yards.

TRENDS:

*Bears are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC North.
*Under is 13-3 in Lions last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
*Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Detroit.

CONSENSUS: 59.32 percent are backing the Lions -7 with 60.8 percent on the over.


Philadelphia Eages at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 54.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have a pretty short turnaround after playing the late game on the road Sunday but should not lack energy when they take on the visiting Philadelphia Eagles in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Cowboys and the Eagles enter the weekend tied for first in the NFC East and both are coming off impressive victories. Dallas had the luxury of a bye in Week 11 before the grind of two games in five days.

The Cowboys had to battle back from a 21-10 halftime deficit and earned a 31-28 win at the New York Giants on Sunday when Tony Romo found Dez Bryant in the end zone with 1:01 left. “It’s our job as coaches to make sure we understand the physical burden that they’ve been under,” Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters. “…But having said that we’ve got to get their minds forward and get ready for this next challenge.” The Eagles, who lead the NFC in total offense, will represent the biggest challenge for the Cowboys defense, which is surrendering an average of 355 yards.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Neither the opening line of Cowboys -3 or opening total of 54.5 have moved.

INJURY REPORT: Eagles - LB Emmanuel Acho (Ques-Thurs) Cowboys - DT Josh Brent (Ques-Conditioning)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Battle of division leaders in a possible playoff preview in Dallas where the Cowboys have struggled on Thanksgiving Day against .500 or better opponents, covering only seven of the last 19 match ups. On the flip side, NFL home favorites seeking revenge on Turkey Day are 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS of late." - Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE EAGLES (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O/U): Philadelphia fell on its face in a 53-20 loss at Green Bay on Nov. 16 but bounced right back on Sunday as LeSean McCoy ran for 130 yards and a score in a 43-24 win over the Tennessee Titans. The Eagles are undefeated within the division and earned a 24-22 win at Dallas in the final week of the regular season to lock up the NFC East crown in 2013. "We're not talking about first-place games because they don't crown a champion after Thursday's game," Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly told reporters. "We're just excited about the opportunity to go play against a really good team."

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-4-1 O/U): Romo missed that Week 17 loss to the Eagles last season after undergoing back surgery but is rounding into health after another back scare a few weeks ago and threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants. Romo was on the field with most of his teammates for Monday’s walk-through as the team accelerates it usual practice week. Taking some pressure off Romo is running back DeMarco Murray, who had his 10th 100-yard game of the season on Sunday and leads the league in rushing.

TRENDS:

*Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
*Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Cowboys -3 have 52.07 percent of Covers users, with the over seeing a huge 74.7 percent.


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1, 39.5)

The stakes are certainly not as high as when Seattle knocked off San Francisco in last season's NFC Championship game, but Thursday's outcome figures to have some major playoff ramifications when the 49ers host the Seahawks in a matchup of bitter NFC West rivals. With both teams trailing division-leading Arizona by two games and a rematch in Seattle looming in 17 days, the loser will face an uphill climb in the crowded NFC. “It’s a big game for us," San Francisco safety Antoine Bethea said. "It’s our next game.”

The 49ers are riding a three-game winning streak - the victories coming by a combined 12 points - while the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks have won four of five to surge back into playoff contention. While the teams have split the past four meetings, the home side prevailing in each, Seattle outlasted San Francisco 23-17 in the NFC title game as cornerback Richard Sherman knocked away a pass in the end zone and promptly ripped 49ers wideout Michael Crabtree in a postgame interview. "We're going to have to play great football," Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson said. "Play lights out, that's it."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The game originally opened as a pick'em before shifting to San Farncisco -1 late Tuesday. The total opened at 41 before being pushed down to 39.5 Tuesday.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - G James Carpenter (Ques-Ankle), DB Marcus Burley (Ques-Hamstring), C Max Unger (Ques-Ankle) 49ers - T Anthony Davis (Ques-Concussion), TE Vance McDonald (Ques-Hip)

WEATHER REPORT: Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with a game time temperature around 66°F. Winds will gust as high 10 mph towards the northwest.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Rare underdog role for the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks but perhaps justified given their struggles away from home, and the success of the host in this series - now 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS the last five years. A loss will be crippling for either team. Expect this to be played with playoff intensity." - Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): Running back Marshawn Lynch has been a walking soap opera for Seattle, ranging from being fined for refusing to speak to the media to speculation about his future with the club and recurring back issues that forced him to briefly leave last week's 19-3 win over the Cardinals. The spotlight will remain on Lynch, who rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown in last season's playoff victory and has run for five touchdowns in the past five meetings (postseason included). Wilson has not passed for more than 211 yards during the current 4-1 stretch, but he been a dangerous threat out of the backfield with three 100-yard rushing games this season. The return of middle linebacker Bobby Wagner from injury provided a boost to the defense, which limited Arizona to 204 total yards last week.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U): San Francisco was teetering at .500 after back-to-back defeats against Denver and St. Louis, but showed its mettle by rebounding with an overtime victory at New Orleans before giving up a combined 23 points in narrow wins over the New York Giants and Washington. “You make a deposit in the toughness account and you’ll be able to make withdrawals from that later down the road," coach Jim Harbaugh said. "We want to keep making those deposits.” Wideout Anquan Boldin, the epitome of that toughness, is coming off a nine-catch, 137-yard outing but Colin Kaepernick has thrown for only one scoring pass in each of the past five contests while running back Frank Gore has not cracked 100 yards since Oct. 5. Linebacker Aldon Smith had two sacks in his second game back from suspension and has six in his last six contests versus Seattle.

TRENDS:

*Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
*Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games on grass.
*Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 53.20 percent are behind the Seahawks +1, with 50.9 percent taking the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Thanksgiving Day Special
By SEAN MURPHY

Why limit yourself to sides and totals this Thanksgiving? Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives his favorite player prop picks for all of the Thanksgiving Day action on the NFL gridiron.

Most passing yards

Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears) vs. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions)

The number of Cutler critics has swelled exponentially this season, and for good reason, as he’s struggled despite the wealth of talent around him. With that being said, I believe this offense has a ton of upside, and catches the Lions defense at a good time as it returns home off two physical affairs in Arizona and New England.

Matt Stafford has been almost as shaky as Cutler in recent weeks, and has a lot of pressure on his shoulders as he needs to right the ship in a hurry.

Take: Cutler

Most rushing yards

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys)

I don’t expect the Eagles to throw Mark Sanchez into the fire, so to speak, after he turned in an embarrassing performance in his last road game, at Green Bay two weeks ago. Shady McCoy will earn plenty of touches as Philadelphia does all it can to keep the vaunted Cowboys off the field.

DeMarco Murray has topped out at 121 rushing yards over the last three games, after surpassing that number in four of his previous five contests. That’s not to say that Murray has hit a wall, as he continues to churn out terrific numbers. I simply feel that the Cowboys aerial attack will take center stage against a beatable Eagles secondary on Thursday.

Take: McCoy

Most pass receptions

Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers)

While Crabtree has only six catches over the last two weeks, they’ve been big ones, as he’s racked up 147 receiving yards and a touchdown. I expect to see his workload increase on Thursday. He’ll certainly have ample motivation if he’s matched up against Richard Sherman. While Sherman may not agree, I do see this as a good matchup, and I’m confident Crabtree will get his share of looks from Colin Kaepernick.

Doug Baldwin has had a tough time getting going this season, and may have hit a low point against the Cardinals last Sunday, securing only two catches for six yards. He’ll improve on those numbers here, but by how much? Consider he’s topped out at six catches over the last five games.

Take: Crabtree

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lions one of the top under plays in NFL
Justin Hartling

The Detroit Lions top ranked defense has made them one of the top under plays this season. The Lions are 2-9 over/under this season, thanks to the defense holding opponents to a mere 17.3 points per game.

It also helps the under that the Lions offense has averaged a poor 17.9 ppg.

The Lions and Chicago Bears current total is set at 47 for Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Poor secondary play could hurt Bears
Justin Hartling

The Chicago Bears' secondary have been leaking like a siv this season. Since their bye week, the Bears have allowed 818 passing yards and eight touchdowns.

"The Bears rank 30th in the NFL allowing 27.5 points per game and have the 29th-ranked pass defense," Scott Kaminsky.