At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey
Friday through Sunday, there are seven Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races at Keeneland, a pair at Belmont Park and one at Santa Anita.
Keeneland opens Friday and the feature is the $400,000 Darley Alcibiades (G1) for two-year-old fillies, with the winner earning an automatic starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). The supporting feature is the $200,000 Phoenix (G3) which is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders. Cup Sprint (G1).
I will be providing my selections for those two races right here tomorrow and I will be posting reports for Keeneland each Saturday and Sunday during the meeting.
There are five graded stakes on Saturday’s card including the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), which will serve as a final prep for Wise Dan, who figures to be a short price.
The stakes action starts in the fifth race, the $150,000 Woodford Reserve (G3) for turf sprinters. Also on the card are the $200,000 Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) for fillies and mares, $400,000 First Lady (G1) for fillies and mares on turf and the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) for two-year-olds.
The Sunday featured races are the the $500,000 Spinster (G1) and the $250,000 Bourbon Stakes (G3), both Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.
At Belmont Park on Saturday, we have the $500,000 Champagne (G1) and Frizette (G1), both juvenile races. Saturday’s $300,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) is a Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Md $50,000 (12:50 ET)
4 Rachel's Temper 9-2
1 Beauty Surprise 5-2
8 Angel Choir 3-1
7 Reckless Move 6-1
Analysis: Rachel's Temper was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and finished up well while no match for the winner in a runner up finish in her first start off a 7 1/2 month layoff. The winner of the race was Costeno, who came back to beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in his next start while the third and fourth place finishers came back to graduate in their next starts. The barn had a good Spa meet and has picked up four winners here form his first 15 starters.
Beauty Surprise made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out for a $40,000 tag as the chalk, beaten a half-length for the top spot. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in the effort and now makes just his third start since May for the Clement barn. She has six sibs that are winners including one turf winner and a pair of stakes winners, top earner Trail This ($189,390).
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,7,8
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,7,8 / 1,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (4:27 ET)
7 Bakken 8-5
3 Candyman E 8-1
5 Captain Serious 5-2
2 Sam Sparkle 10-1
Analysis: Bakken came back off a 5 1/2 month layoff with a game effort in a runner up finish in the True North (G2) over the main track here. He was beaten just 3/4 of a length by palace, who went on to win a couple of Grade 1 races and was third last out in the Vosburgh (G1) but still is likely to be the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1). Our top pick now comes back off nearly a four month break, which is not a great sign he had to hit the sidelines again after such a good effort, but we have the Chad Brown barn in his corner and the barn is 29% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. He comes back here in a modest spot facing Alw-2 foes and in a wide open Sprint division a big performance will set him up to return to the stakes ranks next out.
Candyman E stalked the early pace from the outside and weakened to finish fifth last out against Alw-3 optional claimers. He was claimed away from Jacobson by the Friedman barn that is 13% winners first off the claim. The gelding has won 10 of his 26 career starts and his last win came on the inner track in the Toboggan (G3) back in February. He drops a notch in class here to the Alw-2 level and may end up getting overlooked on the tote.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 2,3,5,7
TRI: 3,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R3: #2 Deadicated Deal 10-1
R4: #2 Zenstone 10-1
R6: #10 Dr K’eough 8-1
R8: #3 Candyman E 8-1
R8: #2 Sam Sparkle 10-1
R9: #11 Loveisheartandsoul 10-1
R9: #8 Mythical Man 8-1
Good luck today!