Thursday 10/16/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NCAAF

VIRGINIA TECH (4 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 3) - 10/16/2014, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


UTAH (4 - 1) at OREGON ST (4 - 1) - 10/16/2014, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 105-75 ATS (+22.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OREGON ST is 100-67 ATS (+26.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
OREGON ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
OREGON ST is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
OREGON ST is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
OREGON ST is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
UTAH is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 2-0 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

VIRGINIA TECH vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games on the road
Virginia Tech is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech

UTAH vs. OREGON STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games on the road
Utah is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Oregon State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 6 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Recap - Week 6

Overall Notes

NFL Week 6 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 9-3-1
Against the Spread 7-6

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 3-9-1
Against the Spread 3-10

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 9-4


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 60-28-1
Against the Spread 46-40-3

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 49-39-1
Against the Spread 37-49-3

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 48-41


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Denver (-9.5) defeated the Jets, 31-17, as the Broncos cashed with a late interception return for a touchdown.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Dallas (+9.5) stunned Seattle, 30-23 to pick up its fifth consecutive win to own the best record in the NFC at 5-1. The Cowboys cashed on the money-line at +350 (Bet $100 to win $350).

Highway to Hell

Home teams were flat out awful in Week 6. How bad was it for the hosts? Only three home squads won as the Titans, Browns, and Cardinals each came out with victories, but Tennessee didn't cover as four-point favorites in a 16-14 win over Jacksonville. Overall, road teams put together a fantastic 9-3-1 SU and 10-3 ATS record in Week 6.

Saved by the Pick-Six

It was mentioned earlier about the Broncos taking back a late interception for a touchdown to cash against the Jets, but that wasn't the only front-door cover in the final minute. The Cardinals couldn't convert a first down against the Redskins in the last minute, leading Washington 23-20 as five-point favorites. Following a punt, Kirk Cousins threw a pick-six that gave Arizona a 30-20 victory to improve to 4-1 and give Cardinal backers a miracle cover.

Back in Business

The Lions, Patriots, Ravens, and Packers all won on the road to improve to 4-2. Detroit bounced back from last week's last-second loss to Buffalo by cruising past Minnesota, 17-3 as one-point road underdogs. New England doesn't look like the same team that got destroyed at Kansas City two weeks ago, as the Patriots' offense has woken up in wins over the Bengals and Bills. Sunday's 37-22 victory at Buffalo improved New England to 2-2 SU/ATS on the road and 1-1 inside the AFC East.

Baltimore pulled off the biggest rout in Week 6, manhandling Tampa Bay, 48-17 as three-point road favorites. Joe Flacco threw four touchdown passes...in the first quarter to give Baltimore a commanding 28-0 lead after 15 minutes. Green Bay needed a late rally to knock off Miami, 27-24 as 1.5-point road favorites, as the money came in on the Dolphins late in the week.

Sunday Line Moves

Prior to the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoffs, there were a handful of line moves on Sunday, which was reported to be sharp action. Make a note that even the professionals or so-called wise guys lose too.

Denver -6.5 to Denver -9.5 (WIN)
Miami +3.5 to Miami +1.5 (LOSS)
Minnesota +1 to Minnesota -1 (LOSS)
Buffalo +3 to Buffalo +1 (LOSS)
Seattle -8 to Seattle -9.5 (LOSS)
Arizona -3 to Arizona -5 (WIN)
N.Y. Giants +3 to N.Y. Giants +1.5(LOSS)

All Knotted Up

It's fair to say we all hate ties in sports. Carolina and Cincinnati played an epic game at Paul Brown Stadium, but there was no winner as the two teams finished in a 34-34 tie. The Bengals had a chance to win the game with a field goal at the end of overtime, but missed it. Cincinnati's 11-game home regular season winning streak was snapped, while Carolina covered as seven-point road underdogs.

Committment to Awfulness

The Raiders were that close to winning their first game of the season, but couldn't hold onto a 28-21 fourth quarter lead as the Chargers rallied for 10 late points in a 31-28 victory at the Black Hole. Oakland managed to cover as 7.5-point home underdogs, but the Raiders fell to 0-5 on the season.

Let's not get Jacksonville off the hook when mentioning winless clubs, as the Jaguars still haven't won this season. The good news for the Jags is that they finally covered a game after going 0-5 ATS the first five weeks, but Jacksonville dropped a 16-14 decision at Tennessee as four-point 'dogs.

Totals

The 'over' cashed in nine of 13 games, including eight contests in which the winning team scored at least 30 points. Cleveland was the lone team to score over 30 points and not produce an 'over,' as the Browns drilled the 'under' for the first time this season.

The late interception returns in both the Broncos-Jets game and Redskins-Cardinals contest each clinched the 'over.'

The game with the highest total (56) never came close to being threatened, as the Bears beat the Falcons, 27-13. At halftime, the two teams combined for 16 points.

After seeing the 'under' cash in their first two road games, the Chargers exploded for 31 points and their first away 'over' on the season.

The Bucs started the season with consecutive 'unders,' but Tampa Bay has hit the 'over' in four straight games, while allowing at least 37 points three times in the past four weeks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Opening Line Report: Cowboys' betting bandwagon as full as ever
By COLIN KELLY

Week 7 of the NFL season is highlighted by the rekindling of a traditional rivalry, with one team on the rise – the Dallas Cowboys – and the other mired in a mediocre fog -- the New York Giants.

Dallas (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) is undergoing a completely unexpected resurgence, having won five in a row SU. On Sunday, the Cowboys were 10-point underdogs at Seattle, but pulled out a stunning 30-23 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks.

New York (3-3 SU and ATS) looked as if it had gotten its season back on track, winning three in a row SU and ATS, but the Giants got completely shut down Sunday night at Philadelphia, losing 27-0 as a 1-point underdog.

John Lester, expects the game to attract a lot of betting attention, with two very public teams. He held off setting a firm line, to evaluate New York after its blowout loss Sunday, in which the Giants likely lost star wideout Victor Cruz for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
“We always have loads of action on this matchup,” Lester said. “The Cowboys are obviously coming off a big win, and their betting bandwagon is as full as ever. I’m envisioning at least a 4-point spread here.”

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos

The Niners still have unfinished Week 6 business, playing in the Monday night game at St. Louis. San Fran (3-2 SU and ATS) bounced back from two consecutive SU and ATS losses to win and cover at home against Philadelphia and Kansas City.

The Broncos (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have covered two in a row, getting a late interception for a TD on Sunday to claim a 31-17 win laying 10 points against the host New York Jets.

“The Broncos didn’t peek ahead to this one, playing a complete game against the Jets,” Lester said. “If the Niners take care of business Monday night, we’ll probably make Denver around a 6-point favorite. This should be a good litmus test for both teams.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Two of the league’s rising young quarterbacks square off in a matchup of division leaders. Andrew Luck and Indy (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) will come in with a little extra rest, after traveling to Houston last Thursday and winning 33-28 as a 2.5-point road fave – the Colts’ fourth consecutive win and cover.

Meanwhile, Andy Dalton and Cincy (3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)have cooled off after a 3-0 SU and ATS start, getting walloped on the road at New England, then settling for a 37-37 home tie Sunday against Carolina as a 7-point favorite.

“A lot of perceptions about these teams have changed over the last few weeks,” Lester said. “The Colts appear to be hitting their stride offensively, and Cincy’s defense has sprung some leaks. With extra time to prepare and being a great team in the dome, I wanted Indy a bit higher, but we settled at the key number (-3).”

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

It’s on the Monday night marquee, but these two middling franchises aren’t living up to that billing. Houston (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) has lost two in a row SU, including last Thursday’s 33-28 home setback as a 2.5-point ‘dog against Indianapolis.

The Steelers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) are much harder to explain. They lost at home earlier this season to hapless Tampa Bay, and they got smoked Sunday at Cleveland 31-10 catching 2.5 points.

“The casual bettor will be eager to side with the Steelers in this matchup. But that defense has certainly looked suspect the last couple of weeks,” Lester said. “The Texans can win this game if they run the ball well.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends to Watch - October
By Marc Lawrence

The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.

Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.

Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).

AWAY TEAMS

Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.

Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).

Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?

Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.

Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.

Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.

The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.

Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.

Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.

DOGS

Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.

Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?

Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.

San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.

The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.

The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.

Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?

With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.

You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 7
By Marc Lawrence

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

There’s a new team atop the college football leaderboard and strangely its name does not start with an ‘A’ or an ‘F’. It’s the upstart Mississippi State Bulldogs, winners of three straight games over Top 10 ranked opponents.

With that its time to go ‘inside the stats’ as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also honing in on last week’s football games.

Remember, it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 13, unless noted otherwise.

LEAKING OIL

It’s that time of the year when we ferret out favorites on the football card each we that have been out-gained in each of their last three contests.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s vinegary favorites.

NCAAFB: Air Force, BYU, Cincinnati, Idaho, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Texas State, Tulsa and Utah.

NFL: No qualifying teams this week but note the following teams are riding serious ITS - In The Stats - losing streaks: Carolina (5), Houston (6), NY Jets (4) and Tampa Bay (6).

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

According to last week’s game stats there were an abundance of teams who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: Appalachian State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Northwestern, Ohio, Texas and Texas A&M.

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game:

Alabama, Bowling Green, Duke, Minnesota, Mississippi and Oklahoma State.

There were no such teams in the NFL.

DOUBLE INSIDE OUT

From the bevy of phony ‘inside-out’ games last week, here the matchup of a positive stat loser facing a negative stat winner. The Stat winner is listed first:

NCAAFB: Texas A&M vs. Alabama, Northwestern vs. Nebraska and Ohio vs. Akron

NFL: Washington vs Tennessee

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Buffalo Bills are 21-2 ATS in games after facing the New England Patriots when facing a losing team.

The Dallas Cowboys are 8-0 SU and ATS in their 4th home game of the season when facing a division opponent.

The Carolina Panthers are 7-0 ATS when seeking revenge against NFC North teams.

The Miami Dolphins are 1-10 SU and ATS in Game Six of the season.

The Seattle Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in games after dueling with Dallas.

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 2-12-1 ATS at home off a SU win versus an opponent off a SU loss.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on Thursdays.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points in games off a SU double-digit loss versus an opponent off a SU loss.

.700 or greater NFL away teams who played to a tie the previous week (read: Cincinnati Bengals) are 0-5 SU and ATS.

STAT OF THE WEEK

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 15-0 SU at home on Monday nights, including 6-0 ATS when not favored by 6 or more points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 7
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 16

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND...Rexy just 1-5 SU and vs. line TY. Belichick "over" trend resurfacing with "overs" last 3, now 48-21 "over" in reg. season since 2010. "Overs" 8-1 last nine meetings. "Over," based on 'totals" trends.



Sunday, Oct. 19

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS...Bengals 6-2-1 as away dog since 2012. Colts, however, now 5-1 vs. line TY after Houston win, and on 9-2 spread uptick since late 2013. Colts also "over" 6-1-1 last eight since late 2013. "Over" and Colts, based on team and "totals" trends.


TENNESSEE at WASHINGTON...Teams combined 3-9 SU vs. line. Skins just 2-5 vs. spread last seven at home, but Tenn. no covers last 5 Y. Skins 7-15 vs. line last 22 on board. Slight to Titans, based on extended Skins spread woes.


MIAMI at CHICAGO...Early Dolphin trend to "over" (4-1) this season. Miami also 8-3 as dog since 2013 for Philbin. Bears 0-2 SU and vs. line at Solider Field TY and now 3-9 last 12 vs. spread as host. Bears also "over" 15-6-1 for Trestman. "Over" and Dolphins, based on "totals" and team trends.


CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE...Jags 1-5 vs. line. Also 1-8-1 last 10 as EverBank dog. But Gus won 32-28 at Cleveland LY. Brownies "over" 4-1 TY. "Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.


SEATTLE at ST. LOUIS...Hawks are 8-3 SU their last 11 away from CenturyLink and are 11-3-1 vs. line last 15 away from Seattle. Carroll 27-13-2 vs. spread since 2012 and 6-2 vs. line last 8 after SU loss. Series "under" 7-1 last 8. Seahawks and "under," based on team and series "totals" trends.


CAROLINA at GREEN BAY...Cam 9-2 as road dog since 2012 (2-1 TY) and "over" last 4 TY. Pack "over" 23-13 last 36 at home. "Over" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.


ATLANTA at BALTIMORE...Falcs 0-3 SU and vs. line away TY, now 1-10 SU and 2-9 vs. spread on road since LY. Flacco 9-4 vs. line last 13 at M&T Bank Stadium. Ravens also "over" 5-2 last eight at home. Ravens and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


MINNESOTA at BUFFALO...Bills 2-5 vs. spread last seven in game subsequent to facing Patriots. Slight to Vikings, based on recent Bills trends.


NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT...Saints 1-4 vs. line TY, no wins or covers first three on road and have now dropped nine straight spread decisions on reg.-season road (1-8 SU those games; does not count 1-1 SU and 2-0 vs. line in playoffs road games LY). Lions "under" last 5 TY and 8 of 9 "under" since late 2013. Lions and "under," based on Saints road woes and "under" trends.


KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO...Andy Reid now 10-1 vs. line on road in regular season since taking over Chiefs LY (3-0 TY). But Bolts 10-2 last 12 vs. spread (L vs. KC at end last season). "Overs" last four in series. "Over" and Chiefs, based on "totals" and series trends.


NY GIANTS at DALLAS...Jerry Jones has won last 5 SU and 4-1 vs. line in those, but 7-15 vs. spread last 22 as host. G-Men are 4-1 SU and vs. line in new Jerry Stadium and road team 7-3 vs. line last 10 in series. "Over" last three meetings. Giants and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


ARIZONA at OAKLAND...Raiders 7-15-1 last 23 vs. mark at home. Arians 10-3-1 last 14 vs. line, 5-1 vs. line last 6 away. Cards, based on team trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at DENVER...Harbaugh 7-4-1 as dog with Niners. SF "under" 7-2 last 9 since late 2013, Denver 1-2 vs. line at home TY but still 13-5 as reg.-season home chalk since 2012 and Manning arrival. Slight to "under" and Broncos, based on "totals' and team trends.


Monday, Oct. 20

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH...Hou now 4-2 vs. line for O'Brien after Indy loss. Texans 2-1 vs. line away TY after 2-5-1 mark last season as visitor vs. number. Steel 0-2 vs. line as host TY, now also "over" 5-1 last six as host. "Over" and Texans, based on team and "totals" trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 7 line watch: Jump on Cardinals quick
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (+3.5)

There is a little bit of a buzz on the Oakland end of the Bay Bridge after the Raiders came within a whisker of beating the Chargers on Sunday. That’s all well and good, but a glance at the schedule shows what the Raiders are facing as they head into the middle of the schedule – Arizona, at Cleveland, at Seattle, Denver and at San Diego. All winning teams with chances on winning their divisions. In all probability Oakland will be 0-10 by the middle of November and neck and neck with the Jags for the overall No. 1 draft pick. A straight up loss with a cover is too narrow a needle to thread on this one. Arizona is getting Larry Fitzgerald back into the offense and smells Seattle’s blood. Swallow the 3.5 here before the number goes to 4.

Spread to wait on

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Early money is pretty much evenly divided between the two, though bettors appear to be waiting to see if the number will climb to 3 with backers of the Lions nudging it just a bit higher. Everyone is wondering just what is going on with the Saints, who sit at 2-3 and don’t seem to be getting much traction in an NFC South that appears winnable for any team that can figure out how to win four or five in a row. The Saints have trouble on the road, where their three defeats have come by an average score of 34-25. But the Lions couldn’t get it done at home a few weeks ago against Buffalo. Best to sit on this a bit and see what kind of odds are posted later in the week.

Total to watch

New York Jets at New England Patriots (46) (Thursday)

No matter how bad things are going for the Jets (and they are going real bad right now), they seem to be competitive against the Patriots in Foxboro. NYJ games at NE have turned into taffy pulls since the mid-2000s, and with forecasters calling for bad weather on Thursday night, this one has the makings of another 20-13 game. New York has no chance in a shootout, so it’s pretty much guaranteed that the Jets will run the ball at least for the first half. Under deserves a good look in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jets at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers

The Patriots have come back to life over the past two weeks while the Jets are ready for the dirtnap after losing five consecutive games. Even though New England owns just a one-game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East entering Week 7 action, the Patriots are starting to find their groove offensively and are ready to take control of the division they have owned for over a decade.

Just two weeks ago, Bill Belichick’s squad sat at 2-2 and looking for answers after getting blown out at Kansas City in front of a nationally televised audience. The Patriots put that loss behind them fast by routing the Bengals, 43-17 as 2 ½-point home underdogs to forge back above the .500 mark. New England jumped out to a 20-3 halftime lead and never looked back to hand Cincinnati its first loss of the season.

The Patriots broke a tie atop the AFC East with the Bills in last Sunday’s 37-22 road victory, as New England closed anywhere from a one-point favorite to a one-point underdog. After the Pats opened up the week as a three-point favorite, the alleged “sharp” money came in on Buffalo, pushing that line down in spite of the Bills losing 19 of the previous 20 meetings to New England since 2004. Tom Brady diced up the Buffalo defense for four touchdowns and 361 yards, but running back Stephan Ridley was lost for the season with a torn ACL as the Pats rushed for just 50 yards.

The Jets enter Gillette Stadium on Thursday seeking some kind of answer to their problems over the past five games – all losses. New York held off Oakland in Week 1 at home, then jumped out to a 21-3 lead at Green Bay the following week. Since that time, the Jets have been outscored, 141-56, while barely covering against the Packers as 7 ½-point underdogs. Some of the lowlights include a 31-0 beatdown at San Diego and home losses to the Bears and Lions, but New York hung with Denver last week before a late touchdown torched Jets’ backers.

New York grabbed an early 7-3 lead over Denver with a Geno Smith touchdown pass to Jace Amaro, but the Broncos ran off 21 straight points on three Peyton Manning touchdown strikes. The Jets cut the deficit to 24-17 in the fourth quarter and had an opportunity to cover as 10-point underdogs until Aqib Talib picked off Smith and hustled into the end zone for a pick-six and a 31-17 Broncos’ victory. Rex Ryan’s team owns a 1-5 ATS mark, but has lost just once by double-digits this season.

Last season, the Jets hung around in a rainy Thursday night visit to Foxboro in Week 2, falling to the Patriots, 13-10 to cash as 10 ½-point ‘dogs. New England failed to score in the second half, but managed to intercept Smith three times and recover a Jets’ fumble. However, the Patriots couldn’t break away from the Jets, as New England was held out of the end zone for the final 57 minutes of the game.

The Jets knocked off the Patriots in the second meeting at Met Life Stadium last October, 30-27 in overtime to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs. New England was held out of the end zone again in the second half, but picked up six points from the leg of kicker Stephen Gostkowski to send the game into overtime. Nick Folk kicked the winner in the extra session, as the Jets held the ball for nearly 46 minutes in the victory. The win snapped a five-game skid to the Patriots that dated back to 2011, but New York has cashed in each of its past two visits to Gillette Stadium, both as a double-digit ‘dog.

The Patriots have covered just three of their previous eight games against division foes since the start of 2013, but are 7-3 ATS in this stretch in the role of a home favorite. The Jets have been a below average road underdog since 2011, posting a 7-11-1 ATS record, including a 1-1 ATS mark this season. New York has performed well off a home underdog loss since 2012, going 4-1 ATS, but the Jets have lost 10 of their past 12 games away from Met Life Stadium.

From a totals standpoint, the Patriots have hit the ‘over’ in three straight games, while holding the Raiders and Bengals to a combined 26 points in two home victories. There are no distinctive total trends as far as the Jets are concerned, but this team has broken the 19-point barrier just once this season, while giving up 31 points in each of their two road losses.

Through 19 primetime games this season, 15 have gone ‘over’ the total, including each of the last four played on Thursday night. Favorites have owned Thursdays this season, winning and covering five of six times, with five of those games decided by 20 points or more.

The Patriots are listed as 9 ½-point favorites at most books, with several 10’s floating around. The total is set at 44 ½, but there is an 80% chance of rain in Foxboro on Thursday night, so that total may drop closer to game time. Kickoff is set for 8:25 PM EST and the game can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Patriots favored big over slumping Jets Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

NEW YORK JETS (1-5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-2)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New England -9.5, Total: 45.5

The Jets look to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they head to Foxboro on Thursday night to face the Patriots.

New York is coming off of a 31-17 home loss against the Broncos, but New England has won two in a row, including a 37-22 road defeat of the Bills last week. The last time these two teams played was October 20, 2013, when the Jets won 30-27 as three-point home underdogs. Patriots QB Tom Brady did not throw for a touchdown in that game, but did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown by Antonio Allen. Prior to that game, New England had won five straight games SU versus New York. Brady is 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in his career when facing the Jets under Rex Ryan. In the previous two seasons, New England is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS, when hosting New York. Bill Belichick is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of the Patriots, but the Jets are 16-6 ATS since 1992 after playing three straight games with a turnover margin of minus-1 or worse. CB Dee Milliner (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury last week season for New York, while New England saw two starters leave with season-ending knee injuries, RB Stevan Ridley and LB Jerod Mayo.

Can the Patriots beat this division rival by double-digits? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past four weeks, combining for a 39-24 ATS mark (62%). StatFox Dave is 72% ATS (13-5) in Best Bets during this timeframe to improve to 61% ATS (17-11) on the season, while StatFox Scott is 69% ATS (11-5) in Best Bets during these four weeks, and 58% ATS (14-10) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (69% ATS) (9-4) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3 to increase his season Best Bets mark to 57% ATS (12-9), and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar (78%) record (14-4) for the season.

The Jets (0-5-1 ATS) have now lost five straight games after their opening week victory over the Raiders. QB Geno Smith (1,139 pass yards, 6 TD, 7 INT) was solid in a lost to Denver last week, throwing for 190 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He’ll now face the Patriots in New England, where he threw for 214 yards with no touchdowns and a miserable three interceptions a season ago. The Jets would be wise to feed RB Chris Ivory (325 rush yards, 2 TD) in this game. The last time these teams met, Ivory rushed for 104 yards. He rushed 12 times for 52 yards in the game at New England last year as well. Ivory’s powerful style of running has been an issue for the Pats, and it’s also helped severely wear down the defensive line by the end of the game. TE Jace Amaro (24 rec, 212 yards, 1 TD) figures to be a much bigger part of the passing game after a breakout performance against the Broncos. He caught 10 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, and this should be more of a sign of things to come rather than a fluke, with Amaro being one of the only legitimate weapons in this offense. New York’s defense has now allowed 24+ points in five consecutive games. They’re allowing only 92.2 rushing yards per game (8th in NFL), but can’t stop teams when it matters most.

Everybody was ready to write off the Patriots just two weeks ago after they were crushed in Kansas City, but now they’ve won back-to-back games in impressive fashion. New England’s defense is allowing just 111.0 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL) and 208.5 passing yards per game (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 19.5 PPG over the past two weeks and could really cause problems for the erratic Geno Smith. Offensively, this team has scored 40.0 PPG over the past two weeks. QB Tom Brady (1,444 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) has been on fire, throwing for six touchdowns and zero interceptions in that time. Brady is also facing a Jets team that he has dominated in the past. Including playoffs, Brady is 19-6 SU in his career versus New York with 36 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions. He could be even more dominant against this horrible Jets secondary. With Brady turning his season around, TE Rob Gronkowski (26 rec, 341 yards, 4 TD) has also come to life. The tight end caught seven passes for 94 yards in the win over Buffalo. He’s a monster working the middle of the field and could pose some real serious problems for the Jets. RB Shane Vereen (216 rush yards, 1 TD) will likely assume the bulk of the responsibilities in this running game with RB Stevan Ridley (340 rush yards, 2 TD) out for the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

NY JETS (1 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 2) - 10/16/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 162-124 ATS (+25.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Trends

NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing New England
NY Jets are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New England's last 14 games


New York Jets at New England
NY Jets: 3-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
New England: 11-1 ATS off a division game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Grand Salami - October

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.


NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result

10/8 4 22 20 UNDER
10/9 12 67.5 70 OVER
10/10 1 5.5 8 OVER
10/11 15 79.5 84 OVER
10/12 2 10 14 OVER
10/13 4 21.5 18 UNDER
10/14 9 50.5 - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Sharks (3-0) at Islanders (3-0)

Date: October 16, 2014 7:00 PM EDT

The San Jose Sharks and New York Islanders each have won their first three games to open the season, but neither club's coach is exactly celebrating the early success.

New York tries to open 4-0 for the first time in 13 years when it hosts San Jose on Thursday night.

The Sharks opened by beating defending champion Los Angeles 4-0 on Oct. 8 before blanking Winnipeg 3-0 on Saturday. However, coach Todd McLellan wasn't pleased with his team blowing a pair of three-goal leads in Tuesday's 6-5 shootout win over Washington.

'Right now we're a team that's winning and needs a lot of work,' McLellan said. 'And I guess that's a good thing when you're not playing as well as you'd like in a lot of areas but you're still winning games.'

McLellan has seen some improvements, though he pointed out that the effort has been imbalanced from period to period.

"We're improving, but so are the other teams," McLellan said. "Our consistency has to get better. We're fortunate that we're winning games when we're not playing our 'A' game, but everyone is in that infancy stage trying to improve on a nightly basis."

Islanders coach Jack Capuano feels similarly about his club after a sloppy second period against the New York Rangers on Tuesday. New York was outshot 21-8 in the middle 20 minutes before scoring four times in the third for a 6-3 victory.

"I shouldn't have to go in after the second (period) and say the things that I had to say," Capuano said. "They should know the way that we need to play. I'm pleased that they responded, but we just have to make sure that the consistency in our game and the way we need to play becomes a focus."

New York is off to its first 3-0 start since winning its first four to begin the 2001-02 season, scoring 15 goals while going 5 for 12 on the power play. Captain John Tavares, Mikhail Grabovski and Kyle Okposo had a goal and an assist apiece Tuesday.

Brock Nelson continued his solid start by scoring his fourth goal, but the Islanders know they were bailed out by the solid play of Jaroslav Halak, who had 40 saves.

"It was a big win for us, but at the same time we know we didn't play our best," center Frans Nielsen said. "Jaro kept us in it. We still have stuff to work on that we can get better at."

Halak is 5-5-0 with a 2.57 goals-against average in 12 career games against the Sharks, who got some production from unlikely places in their last contest.

Matt Irwin scored twice in the first period of his first game of the season in place of 19-year-old Mirco Mueller, and fellow defenseman John Scott scored the third goal of his seven-year career.

McLellan said scratching Mueller - the 18th overall pick of the 2013 draft - wasn't due to his play, but rather to give the rookie an opportunity to observe the game from a different point of view. He could be back in the lineup for this contest.

"He's still 19 years old and we're still going to try and develop him slowly," McLellan said.

After shutting out the Kings in the opener, Antti Niemi struggled at times against the Capitals. Niemi is 1-0-1 with a 3.25 GAA against the Islanders and will be in net again unless McLellan decides to go with backup Alex Stalock, who shut out the Jets in his season debut.

The Sharks are 5-0-1 in their last six meetings with the Islanders, winning three straight on Long Island.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rangers spell bad news for Hurricanes
Justin Hartling

The Carolina Hurricanes have looked far from impressive this season, but it may get worst against the New York Rangers Thursday. The 'Canes have lost 11 of their last 12 contests against the Rangers and six straight at Madison Square Garden.

The Rangers have outscored the 'Canes 45-23 over the past 12 and an astounding 23-8 over the past six at MSG.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharks dominating in clash of undefeateds
Justin Hartling

Two of the three remaining undefeated teams will faceoff when the San Jose Sharks and New York Islanders meet Thursday. The shockingly good Islanders have a bad track record when these two teams meet, going 1-7-1 in the last nine at home.

San Jose has outscored New York 30-15 over the full nine games, but it has been closer lately as the Sharks have topped the Islanders 16-10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Giants beat Cards, one win from Series

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Buster Posey and the Giants already know how to win in October - even without all this help from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Even without home runs, or even hits.

Posey drove in three runs and San Francisco took advantage of some clunky defense by first baseman Matt Adams, beating the Cardinals 6-4 on Wednesday night to move within one victory of the World Series.

Chasing their third title in five years, the Giants lead the best-of-seven NL Championship Series 3-1 after poor throws cost the Cardinals yet again.

October ace Madison Bumgarner can pitch San Francisco to another pennant Thursday at home in Game 5. Struggling All-Star Adam Wainwright starts for St. Louis, now facing the same daunting deficit the Giants overcame to beat the Cardinals in the 2012 NLCS.

Kansas City awaits the winner after completing its ALCS sweep of Baltimore earlier in the day. The wild-card Royals will host Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night.

San Francisco climbed out of an early three-run hole, and back-to-back bad throws by Adams in the sixth inning helped the Giants rally - one night after a wild toss by St. Louis reliever Randy Choate allowed the winning run to score in the 10th inning.

''I think any time you can put pressure on the defense, you've got the opportunity for good things to happen,'' Posey said. ''We're able to come up with some big two-out RBIs to get back in the game.''

Minus injured catcher Yadier Molina again, the Cardinals were clinging to a 4-3 lead when San Francisco put runners at second and third in the sixth. Playing in with one out, the lumbering Adams backhanded Gregor Blanco's bouncer and stumbled as he tried to set himself to throw home.

Adams had trouble with the transfer, and his toss short-hopped catcher Tony Cruz as Juan Perez slid across with the tying run.

Joe Panik then hit a grounder right to Adams, who stepped on first base before firing wildly to second in trying for a double play. Brandon Crawford stopped about halfway between third and home, yet was able to score easily when Adams threw wide of the bag.

Cardinals shortstop Jhonny Peralta came way off the base to catch the ball, but had no play at the plate.

''The play at home, there's a fast runner at third and I was going in on the ball and threw on the run,'' Adams said. ''Just should've made the throw, though. The second one, I should've just touched first and checked home.''

Posey added an RBI single off Seth Maness to make it 6-4. The star catcher also had a sacrifice fly in the first and a run-scoring single in the third.

These wild-card Giants joke about not needing hits and home runs to win, and they're showing that with timely bunts, small ball and a few miscues from the opponent. The tying and go-ahead runs came home on balls that didn't leave the infield.

Yusmeiro Petit pitched three scoreless innings to win in relief of an ineffective Ryan Vogelsong. Petit has been a valuable long man - he delivered six shutout innings in an 18-inning NLDS victory at Washington.

''He's been really good for us for a long time and he's finally getting some recognition. What a weapon to have,'' Posey said.

Sergio Romo worked the eighth and Santiago Casilla finished for his second save of the series.

A total of six Giants relievers held St. Louis scoreless over the final six innings.

Marco Gonzales took the loss after issuing a leadoff walk to pinch-hitter Perez in the sixth and giving up a single to Crawford.

''A lot of these innings are set up with good at_bats early in innings,'' Giants outfielder Hunter Pence said.

The Giants haven't homered in six games since Brandon Belt connected in the 18th inning at Washington, but it hasn't mattered much.

Cardinals rookie Kolten Wong showed off more postseason power, but his solo homer was wasted.

Vogelsong was the only pitcher in major league history to yield no more than one run in his first five postseason starts, but his streak ended when he gave up four in three innings. San Francisco has still won all six of the postseason games he has started.

SANDOVAL'S STREAK

Giants 3B Pablo Sandoval has reached base in 22 straight postseason games dating to Game 4 of the 2012 NLDS on Oct. 12, 2012. That breaks Barry Bonds' franchise record set from 2002-03. Bonds threw out the ceremonial first pitch Wednesday.

UP NEXT

Cardinals: Wainwright believes he has worked out some kinks in his delivery that have kept him from getting out of the fifth in his first two playoff starts this year. He has allowed eight earned runs and 17 hits in nine innings. ''I just don't want to get a bad rap for not being a good playoff pitcher,'' Wainwright said. ''That's the time I want to shine the most.''

Giants: Bumgarner gave up four hits over 7 2-3 innings for a 3-0 win in Game 1. He pitched a four-hitter in San Francisco's 8-0 wild-card win at Pittsburgh before taking the loss in Game 3 of the NLDS against Washington.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AT&T Park a boon for overs in postseason
Justin Hartling

Even though AT&T Park routinely ranks in the bottom third of ballpark OPS during the regular season, the balls certainly fly during the postseason. In the past 15 playoff games in San Francisco, the total has gone over 12 times.

The games have an average of 8.4 runs per game including topping nine or more runs nine times.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Playoffs

Cardinals-Giants

Wainwright is 0-1, 9.00 in his last two starts, 3-4, 4.50 in 11 postseason starts; he is 1-1, 5.25 in two starts against the Giants this season.

Bumgarner is 2-1, 1.14 in his last three outings, 5-3, 2.58 in nine playoff starts, 1-1, 3.00 against St Louis this season.

Giants won nine of their last eleven games, five of last six at home.

St Louis lost six of its last nine road games. .

Wainwright 23-10.................4-33 first inning
Bumgarner 21-15........... ......10-36 first inning

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football Trends

Thursday, Oct. 16th

New York Jets at New England, 8:25 ET
NY Jets: 3-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
New England: 11-1 ATS off a division game