Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
It is finally the BCS National Championship Game! The Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California will host the much anticipated battle between the Texas Longhorns and the Alabama Crimson Tide. This will be ninth meeting between these two schools, the first since the 1982 Cotton Bowl Classic. The first time these two schools met was over a 100 years ago in 1902. The Texas Longhorns are 7-0-1 against Alabama in those previous meetings. This game brings a lot of rich tradition with it, as the Crimson Tide has 6 National Championship Titles, and even if Texas wins this game tonight, they will still trail the Tide by one. So let’s break this puppy down…
Let’s take a quick second to look at the officials for this game. Cincinnati was not invited to the National Championship game this year, but the Big East will still be represented at least, by the officials. The six automatic-qualifying BCS conferences are the only leagues that officiate the five BCS bowl games. Whichever conference works the BCS National Championship Game misses a BCS bowl the next season. Because the SEC and Big 12 are in this year's championship game, those conferences couldn't officiate it. The ACC was eliminated because it officiated last season's BCS title game. That left the Big East, Big Ten and Pac-10. Big East officials got the nod because this will be their second national championship game in 12 years, leaving all six BCS conferences with two national title games in a 12-year period. Interestingly enough, the last time the Big East officiated this game in January 2004, was when Nick Saban's LSU team defeated Oklahoma for the BCS national championship. On to more important pieces to the puzzle…
The coaches are equals. Both Texas and Alabama’s Programs were struggling before Mack Brown and Nick Saban both respectfully came in and restored their perspective teams programs. After Texas slumped its way through the 1990s, Brown came in and restored the Longhorns to greatness. Mack Brown has won at least 10 games for nine consecutive seasons. After Alabama slumped its way through this decade, Saban arrived and over the last two seasons has restored the Crimson Tide to greatness. After going 6-6 in the 2007 regular season, Saban's first year, Alabama has gone 25-2. Nick Saban looks to become the first coach in the modern era to win national championships at two different schools.
Let’s not forget a very important and interesting piece to this game on the coaching side. The Texas Longhorns defensive coordinator is Will Muschamp. Will Muschamp was just coming off his first season as the defensive coordinator at Division II Valdosta State when Nick Saban hired him in the same capacity at LSU. Together they won the 2004 National Championship. Nick Saban then decided to take his coaching box to the NFL, as the Miami Dolphins Head Coach. And would you believe it, Saban had enough confidence in Muschamp that he too went to the NFL and served as Saban’s defensive coordinator at the NFL level. One year later Muschamp decided to go back to college and was the defensive coordinator at Auburn. Nick Saban took the job at Alabama, and they met head to head for the first time in 2007. Let’s not forget that Will Muschamp won that battle, so the scorecard in their rivalry is Muschamp 1, Saban 0. Interesting enough, Alabama’s current defensive coordinator, Kirby Smart, and Will Muschamp worked together on the LSU staff together. So it comes as no surprise that the Longhorns and the Crimson Tide are ranked #1 and #2 in rushing defense. Alabama is second in total defense and Texas is third. Both defenses strive on the turnover, and the Tide’s plus 16 turnover ratio is evident, as is the Longhorn’s plus 12 ratio. I would like to call the coaching staff pretty much an equal wash, but I will actually give the Longhorn’s lead by Will Muschamp as the defensive coordinator the edge here.
Let’s take a closer look at the Longhorn’s offense. No surprise the Longhorn’ attack begins with Senior QB Colt McCoy, the all-time winningest QB in NCAAF History. McCoy posted a 45-7 record as the starting QB at Texas en route to the only QB to lead his team to four 10 win seasons. McCoy has uncanny accuracy both in the pocket and outside of it, and his 71% completion percentage is evident of that accuracy. But not only is he a threat to throw the ball, he is not afraid to tuck the ball and take off and run with it. But you don’t score more than 40 points in 8 of your 13 games with only one player, McCoy has benefited from a very good supporting cast. One of those weapons is WR Jordan Shipley, his favorite WR’s. Shipley is not the biggest WR, but he makes up with that lack of height with his precise routes and great hands, as well as some good separation speed that all adds up to balance out his average size. He will go down as one of the greatest WR’s at Texas. I think we also have to note Junior James Kirkendoll who had 48 grabs and 6 of those were for TD’s. Also, Sophomore WR Malcom Williams was second on the team in receiving yards. Texas has a number of high profile players at the skill positions. Of course when it comes to rushing the ball, the Longhorns are not bum-steers. This year they have been lead by talented redshirt freshman Tre Newton. I also think that Cody Johnson will be able to another change of pace back that will be able to really pound the ball between the tackles when they need to do so. Keep in mind that the Longhorns will give it to you from different places. They had 4 rushers with over 300 yards on the ground this year. Up front Texas is as good as anyone, even though Suh made some people question that. They are lead by two All-Americans, Center Chris Hall, and Adam Ulatoski.
Defensively the Longhorns have given up a trifling 15.2 points per game and are anchored on all three layers of their defense. Up front Defensive End Sam Acho and DT Lamarr Houston have caused absolute havoc. Acho is one the nations best pass rushers and led the Horns with 9 sacks and 4 recovered fumbles. He presents a lot of speed that will being coming off the edge. He should have plenty of chances to rush the passer in long down in distances as Houston should plug up the middle pretty good. Roaming behind these defensive lineman are two backers that bring a lot of experience and a lot of athleticism. In fact I love these two guys, Sergio Kindle, and Rodderick Muckelroy. These guys are loaded with athletic ability and are almost hybrid players. Look for them to play a huge impact in stopping the run game and adding some pressure in this game. On the third layer and in the backfield is Earl Thomas. Not only is the guy one of the best ball hawks, if not the best ball hawk safety, he is not afraid to come up and hit some people. He will need to come up and help stopping Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram. But don’t be fooled, Thomas is up for that challenge. He is not just a one-dimensional player. He is second on the team in tackles, so he is use to coming up and helping in the run game. In all, the Longhorns have given up a measly 808 rushing yards on the season. That is only 62.2 yards per game, and only 2.6 yards per carry. They can matchup with potent rushing attack that Bama presents. Through the air they have given up 188 yards per game, but when you outscore your opponents 529 to 197, they are bound to throw the ball a little more against you.
On to Alabama now. Lets take a look at their offense first. The Crimson Tide were a machine that dominated the time of possession. They held the ball almost 34 minutes per game. That ranks 3rd in the nation. Not to mention they take care of the football, with only 10 turnovers this year. Offensively they present a very balanced attack. They rush for 216 per game on the ground, and 198 through the air. Their big weapon is not secret, and his name is RB Mark Ingram, the Heisman Trophy Winner. Over 1,500 yards rushing, and 15 rushing TD’s (18 total). Alabama holds a pretty good edge in my opinion in the running game. Mark Ingram comes to play against the best. Keep in mind that he played in 5 games against top 25 teams, including 3 top 10 teams. In those games he accounted for just over 1,000 total yards, and 6 TD’s. He averaged over 165 yards per game in those games on the ground alone. He will be up for the challenge. No doubt the rushing attack will be tested by Texas and their number 1 ranked rush defense, but their passing offense has improved each and every week. First year starter Greg McElroy completed 61% of his passes this year, and I still have question marks about his ability to make plays if Texas can put Bama in some long down and distances. Fact of the matter is this…passing got easier for Bama because he got more comfortable as a first year starter, but their rushing offense also took a lot of pressure off of him, as the ground game got better too as the year went on. Julio Jones is his main weapon and he presents some serious size, 6’4, 215 pounds. He was injured at the beginning of the year and sat out a few games so lets not read too much into his stats. He is a big time player and finished the year extremely strong. McElroy has a deep receiving corps besides Jones though…8 different guys caught at least 10 catches this year. The offensive line is their biggest strength and they are lead by Mike Johnson upfront. They have only given up 15 sacks this year, and that will be a huge focus in this game against Muschamp and the Texas defense. One of their biggest strengths was keeping drives alive this year…they were successful on 41% of their 3rd downs this year and 63% on fourth downs. This stat is key in this game, and if Texas can get Bama in long down and distances this number will be a lot lower. The only real weakness I see with Bama is their lack of a successful offense in the red zone. This was not a problem against Florida, but if Texas can make them kick FG’s instead of TD’s this game is going to be close, and the Horns might even win this game Straight up.
On to their defense led by Kirby Smart. Smart’s unit was first in the country in scoring defense this year. They were second in rush defense behind only Texas, and their total defense was only second behind TCU. Their heart and soul is linebacker Rolando McClain. Like Texas, he has a big tackle that takes up blockers in front of him so he can roam and make plays all over the field. For Bama, that guy is Terrence Cody. “Mt. Cody” takes on double teams all the time, and in some cases even triple teams. Texas will have to find an answer for this guy, and I think being dominated by Suh in the Big 12 Championship will help them realize this. Not only is Cody very, very big, but he has some very good feet. He is quick and agile. Texas will try and run the ball, but Bama gives up only 78 yards per game this year on the ground. They have not given up a 100 yard rusher in 32 straight games now. The Tide’s passing defense is where I think Texas will be able to gain an advantage. They had31 sacks this year, and that will be a very important piece to this game. If Texas can protect McCoy, which I think they can, they will be able to exploit a pass defense that I think is weaker than Texas. Bama has a talented Safety in Mark Barron as well. He too is not afraid to come up and help in the run game. He too was second on his team in tackles this year. The Tide are best when it matters most. They are 4th in the nation in 3rd down defense. They only allow opponents to move the chains 29% of the time. In the red zone they are 2nd in the country, and have only allowed teams to score 65% of the time. The defense seems to get stronger as the game plays on as well. They have only allowed 10 points in the 2nd half of their last 4 games. They too live by the turnover, and they were 5th in the nation in that category with a plus 16 ratio.
On to what I feel is going to make or break the game for the two teams…special teams. Texas has a place kicker in Hunter Lawrence that has shown on the national stage that he is one the most clutch kickers ever. His .839 FG % ranks #1 all-time in Texas history. Justin Tucker handles the punting and is averaging 40.6 yards per punt. Jordan Shipley returns punts and is averaging 13.3 yards per return this year. Not to mention he has returned 2 for TD’s.
For Bama their place kicker is Leigh Tiffin. He is the school’s all-time leader in FG’s. He too is a very, very good kicker. He is 38 of 41 this year on his FG attempts. Handling the punting duties is P.J. Fitzgerald. He is averaging 42.1 yards per punt. In the return game is another stud, Javier Arenas. He averages 16.3 yards per punt return. He also averages 29.0 yard per kick return. He is only 29 yards short of becoming the NCAA’s All-time leader in punt return yards. With another punt return for a TD he will also be the all-time NCAA career leader.
With all of the broken down I feel that this game is going to become an instant classic. I feel whoever has the ball last is going to kick the game winning FG. I believe that Texas can matchup against Alabama in the run game. I give Texas a big edge in the passing game. I give Alabama the edge in the running game. Both sides of the ball have players that can make plays. Both coaching staffs are brilliant, and both special teams are explosive. This game will come down to turnovers…who can protect the ball better and who can move the chains on 3rd down. I expect that Texas will be the one that can do that better. I am going to take Texas and the points in this game.
Texas +4.5 (10 Units) (Very Rare to be this high)
Texas +174 Moneyline (4 Units)
