Smooth44
MLB
NY-METS +200
CINCY +150
HOUSTON +270
TEXAS +200
NFLx
TAMPA BAY VS. MIAMI
The Bucs play host to in-state rival Miami tonight. The Bucs are coming off a very solid performance in their win over the Jaguars last week. In that game both QBs, Leftwich and MCown, were effective combining for 12 of 21 at 2 TDs. The two will continue to battle for job security as it is almost certain the one that loses the battle will be traded away. Meanwhile, the Dolphins continued to look impressive in their 27-17 win over Carolina last week. Pennington and Company should start most, if not all, of the first half. Although the Fins have the depth and talent advantage some of this gets offset tonight by the fact the Bucs are expected to play their DBs deep into the game because of major injury issues with their backups. We also want to keep in mind that these two teams will meet during the regular season, in just 6 weeks, so game planning should be conservative and more vanilla than normal. The line is suspect with a 2-0 team playing the dog role against a re-building team – enough for me to side with the home team here, especially given the fact that we have a heated QB battle and DBs that should get extended time against backup QBs.
PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY 16 MIAMI 10
(TAMPA BAY -2)
CINCINNATI VS. ST. LOUIS
The Bengals return home off a nice 7-6 win over the New England Patriots while the Rams look to rebound off a tough 20-13 loss to the Falcons. Both starting QBs continue to nurse injuries and neither is expected to play tonight as a result. Bengals backup O’Sullivan looked solid last week despite his unit not scoring many points. However, it is Rams backup Boller who needs to step up and have a big night tonight. Boller was not so sharp in his performance and another lackluster performance tonight to could put his backup role at risk. Historically, when teams with poor records from the previous season are coming off a win over an average or above-average team from the previous season, they experience a letdown. Look for the Bengals to still feel a little too good after beating the Patriots and especially with the defense holding the Pats to just 6 points.
PREDICTION: ST. LOUIS 20 CINCY 13
(CINCY +3 -120)
PHILADELPHIA VS. JACKSONVILLE
The Eagles return home off a loss to the Colts and now play host to the Jags tonight in Michael Vick’s controversial, and much anticipated, return to the game. Vick is expected to be used in many positions tonight and perhaps even take some snaps at the QB spot. Meanwhile, the Jags leave the state of Florida for the first time after a one point loss to Tampa Bay. The Jags offense sputtered in their preseason opener but looked better last week despite losing. The key tonight is motivation – some will fall for the hype surrounding Vick, and the Eagles, but frankly I believe the more motivated team will be the Jags for a few reasons; first, teams at this level love playing the spoiler role and the Jags will be eager to do just that and ruin Vick’s return and next, Del Rio cares more about preseason than does Coach Reid and that is very well documented. Reid is only concerned with protecting the health of his starters and will look to get get Vick worked into their system and back to game shape while DelRio will approach tonight more like the regular season and use it as a measure of how much his team has improved over last year’s letdown team. It is worth noting the Jags are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the preseason in their last 4 games following 2 or more consecutive losses. The Jags are also an impressive 12-2 ATS in road games in the last two weeks of the preseason since 1993, with an average margin of victory of 6.8. Meanwhile, the Eagles are just 1-7 ATS in their L8 preseason games against the AFC and are just 2-9 ATS L11 preseason games when coming off 2 or more consecutive OVERS.
PREDICTION: JACKSONVILLE 23 PHILLY 16
(JAX +8 -120 ***PLAY OF THE DAY*** and ML +285 )
