Craig Trapp
Bonus Play
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Houston Astros -117
Betting Trends
-Astros are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
-Astros are 5-1 in Rodriguezs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
-Padres are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog.
-Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
This Astro's team has owned SD the last 2 years. They look to make it 8 wins in last 9 games tonight. On the mound for HOU today is Rodriguez who has been great all year! His record (6-6) is very deceiving as his ERA is 3.35 which is top 20 in the National League starters but run support has not been good for him. On the other side Correira takes the mound trying to keep up his recent success. He is 2-1 in last three only allowing 6 runs in 21 innings. This will be an easy game to call. Both pitchers will hold down these two offenses thru the first 6 innings. But after HOU gets into the very average bullpen of SD they will score at least 3 runs late. HOU is a much improved team as of late winning 7 of last 10 and will add another one today.
SCORE HOU 5 - SD 1
Bonus Play
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Houston Astros -117
Betting Trends
-Astros are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
-Astros are 5-1 in Rodriguezs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
-Padres are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog.
-Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
This Astro's team has owned SD the last 2 years. They look to make it 8 wins in last 9 games tonight. On the mound for HOU today is Rodriguez who has been great all year! His record (6-6) is very deceiving as his ERA is 3.35 which is top 20 in the National League starters but run support has not been good for him. On the other side Correira takes the mound trying to keep up his recent success. He is 2-1 in last three only allowing 6 runs in 21 innings. This will be an easy game to call. Both pitchers will hold down these two offenses thru the first 6 innings. But after HOU gets into the very average bullpen of SD they will score at least 3 runs late. HOU is a much improved team as of late winning 7 of last 10 and will add another one today.
SCORE HOU 5 - SD 1
Matt Fargo
Bonus Play
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies +130
I am taking a shot with the Phillies on Thursday to avoid the sweep in Atlanta. Despite dropping the first two games of this series, Philadelphia is still 26-14 on the road which is the best record away from home in the Majors. It cannot come away with a winning roadtrip but if nothing else, it wants to head into the huge weekend series with the Mets on a winning note. The Braves are hanging around in the division only because no team is taking change. Atlanta is still three games under .500 for the season including a game under .500 at home. Last night, Jair Jurrjens took a no-hitter into the seventh inning so we are not likely to see another pitching performance similar to that tonight. The Braves go with Javier Vazquez who is having a solid season with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP though 16 starts. Those numbers are meaningless however as the Braves are only 6-10 in those games including losses in six of his last seven starts. Also, they are just 3-6 in the nine home games that Vazquez has toed the rubber. He has ad good success against the Phillies of late but all of his starts have come in Philadelphia. He will be opposed by J.A. Happ who is having a very good season as well. He has tossed two straight quality starts including his best game of the season, a five-hit shutout at Toronto in his last outing. He has been great on the road, posting a 1.67 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in four starts and five relief appearances. Three of those four starts have been quality performances. He finished last season by pitching against the Braves twice and put together two great games, both being quality and together resulting in a 1.42 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Both also ended up being Phillies victories. The Phillies fall into a very good underdog contrarian situation as well. Play on road teams between +125 and -125 that are hitting.240 or worse over their last 10 games and going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This situation is 60-36 (62.5 percent) since 1997 and with it being an average underdog situation, the results are even better.
3* Philadelphia Phillies
Bonus Play
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies +130
I am taking a shot with the Phillies on Thursday to avoid the sweep in Atlanta. Despite dropping the first two games of this series, Philadelphia is still 26-14 on the road which is the best record away from home in the Majors. It cannot come away with a winning roadtrip but if nothing else, it wants to head into the huge weekend series with the Mets on a winning note. The Braves are hanging around in the division only because no team is taking change. Atlanta is still three games under .500 for the season including a game under .500 at home. Last night, Jair Jurrjens took a no-hitter into the seventh inning so we are not likely to see another pitching performance similar to that tonight. The Braves go with Javier Vazquez who is having a solid season with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP though 16 starts. Those numbers are meaningless however as the Braves are only 6-10 in those games including losses in six of his last seven starts. Also, they are just 3-6 in the nine home games that Vazquez has toed the rubber. He has ad good success against the Phillies of late but all of his starts have come in Philadelphia. He will be opposed by J.A. Happ who is having a very good season as well. He has tossed two straight quality starts including his best game of the season, a five-hit shutout at Toronto in his last outing. He has been great on the road, posting a 1.67 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in four starts and five relief appearances. Three of those four starts have been quality performances. He finished last season by pitching against the Braves twice and put together two great games, both being quality and together resulting in a 1.42 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Both also ended up being Phillies victories. The Phillies fall into a very good underdog contrarian situation as well. Play on road teams between +125 and -125 that are hitting.240 or worse over their last 10 games and going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This situation is 60-36 (62.5 percent) since 1997 and with it being an average underdog situation, the results are even better.
3* Philadelphia Phillies
Big Al McMordie
Bonus Play
Arizona D-Backs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds -135
At 12:35pm our complimentary selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Righthanded veteran Aaron Harang is usually one of the Reds most reliable starters and that has been true for most of this season as well. Although, in Harang's last start on June 26, he had his second-worst start of the year when he went into Cleveland and gave up seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings. A start at home against the Diamondbacks may be just what the doctor ordered for Harang and the Reds. Tonight's Arizona starter, veteran Doug Davis epitomizes exactly what's wrong with this team. Davis has actually been one of the better starters in the NL this season, but you'd never know it from his record. Despite a 3.28 ERA and quality starts in 10 of his 16 outings this season, Davis has a pathetic 3-8 record. Arizona combines that deadly combination of a very weak hitting lineup with extremely poor defense which usually results in a loss (hence its 31-46 record, the third-worst in the Majors). The Diamondbacks are the worst defensive team in baseball, leading all others with 71 team errors through last weekend. Cincinnati's on a bit of a roll having moved into third place in its division, ahead of the Cubs, only four games back and flirting once again with the .500 mark.
Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Bonus Play
Arizona D-Backs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds -135
At 12:35pm our complimentary selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Righthanded veteran Aaron Harang is usually one of the Reds most reliable starters and that has been true for most of this season as well. Although, in Harang's last start on June 26, he had his second-worst start of the year when he went into Cleveland and gave up seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings. A start at home against the Diamondbacks may be just what the doctor ordered for Harang and the Reds. Tonight's Arizona starter, veteran Doug Davis epitomizes exactly what's wrong with this team. Davis has actually been one of the better starters in the NL this season, but you'd never know it from his record. Despite a 3.28 ERA and quality starts in 10 of his 16 outings this season, Davis has a pathetic 3-8 record. Arizona combines that deadly combination of a very weak hitting lineup with extremely poor defense which usually results in a loss (hence its 31-46 record, the third-worst in the Majors). The Diamondbacks are the worst defensive team in baseball, leading all others with 71 team errors through last weekend. Cincinnati's on a bit of a roll having moved into third place in its division, ahead of the Cubs, only four games back and flirting once again with the .500 mark.
Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Matt Rivers
Complimentary Play
For Thursday take the Diamondbacks at The Great American Ballpark.
This is far from the greatest slate that I have ever seen therefore making this comp play far from the greatest comp play that I have ever released. But with that said I'll take my chances here with the visitors from Arizona.
Doug Davis is one of the more snakebit pitchers in all of baseball right now. All the guy does is go out there and throw goosegg after goosegg up but yet he has a pretty poor record. This is directly attributed to the Diamondbacks underachieving and just not good offense. At some point he is going to get some help, he just has to!
Meanwhile Cincinnati is far from a juggernaut themselves even with Joey Votto back swinging the stick. Sure the Canadian basher helps the Cincinnati lineup but all in all the Reds do not have enough big boppers to take advantage of their hitter friendly stadium and are just a mediocre at the very best overall club.
I am the first one to talk about how piss-poor the snakes have been this season and even after the firing and then hiring of AJ Hinch not much has improved. Arizona is still a last placed team that is going absolutely nowhere this season. But with that said there are some pieces like Upton, Reynolds, Drew and others and there is no reason why they can't hit a good hurler but far from great one in Aaron Harang.
At some point Davis will get some run support, if not for the Law of Averages alone, and in a ballpark which is conducive to runs as Great American is, I would not be shocked to see the Diamondbacks put up some crooked numbers today and help out their Cancer surving quality Lefty.
1♦ Diamondbacks (out of 5♦)
Complimentary Play
For Thursday take the Diamondbacks at The Great American Ballpark.
This is far from the greatest slate that I have ever seen therefore making this comp play far from the greatest comp play that I have ever released. But with that said I'll take my chances here with the visitors from Arizona.
Doug Davis is one of the more snakebit pitchers in all of baseball right now. All the guy does is go out there and throw goosegg after goosegg up but yet he has a pretty poor record. This is directly attributed to the Diamondbacks underachieving and just not good offense. At some point he is going to get some help, he just has to!
Meanwhile Cincinnati is far from a juggernaut themselves even with Joey Votto back swinging the stick. Sure the Canadian basher helps the Cincinnati lineup but all in all the Reds do not have enough big boppers to take advantage of their hitter friendly stadium and are just a mediocre at the very best overall club.
I am the first one to talk about how piss-poor the snakes have been this season and even after the firing and then hiring of AJ Hinch not much has improved. Arizona is still a last placed team that is going absolutely nowhere this season. But with that said there are some pieces like Upton, Reynolds, Drew and others and there is no reason why they can't hit a good hurler but far from great one in Aaron Harang.
At some point Davis will get some run support, if not for the Law of Averages alone, and in a ballpark which is conducive to runs as Great American is, I would not be shocked to see the Diamondbacks put up some crooked numbers today and help out their Cancer surving quality Lefty.
1♦ Diamondbacks (out of 5♦)
Al DeMarco's Vegas Viewpoint
Thursday, July 2
Mistakes Players Make:
Often players -- and some handicappers -- will look at lines and scratch their heads, wondering if the oddsmakers are trying to tell them something.
What a waste of time.
Never forget that lines are always set -- and adjusted -- to inspire equal action on both sides, assuring the house of a profit.
When I look at a baseball line, my first thought is whether the game in question is priced accordingly, not from an oddsmaker's perspective as to whether they can get equal action, but rather if there is inequality in the posted price when comparing the pitchers and how their two teams are currently playing.
Doubters will say the oddsmakers are trying to tell us something. I say that's rubbish because over the years I've found at the end of a baseball season the oddsmakers make more mistakes than most casual players ever realize. The key is trying to spot those errors and take advantage of them.
The aforementioned philosophy led to my selection of the Chicago White Sox as Wednesday's Best Bet. Simply put, the line on their game at Cleveland was out of whack with the Pale Hose going off as a +105 underdog.
As I noted in my pre-game analysis -- which you can read by clicking through to my homepage -- the Chicago offense had plated 17 runs in taking the first two games of the series. Plus, the White Sox had averaged 6.7 runs while winning eight of 10, scoring six or more in seven of those outings. Even better, this was a team that was on a 12-4 run on the road where they were hitting .284 on the season.
Despite all of the above, the Indians -- a team in a 2-12 slump -- were favored. Go figure.
It certainly wasn't because of their pitcher, Jeremy Sowers, who was 0-4 lifetime against Chicago.
It certainly wasn't because Cleveland was 2-8 in Sowers' starts this season entering Wednesday's action.
But rather than figure out why, I simply acknowledged the obvious: it was a bad line. And considering my 27-14 Best Bet run over the previous 10 weeks, I was in the position to put my bankroll to work by backing the White Sox for the second time in three nights.
You know the rest of the story: Chicago won; Sowers was gone after allowing 11 hits and five runs in six innings; the White Sox collected 13 hits for the game.
Sometimes, Numbers Beat Expectations:
Fifty games ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers were welding-torch hot. They had Manny Ramirez in the lineup, a 21-8 record and had already built a 6.5-game lead in the National League West.
Then ManRam got rapped pretty hard on the knuckles for taking some sort of female fertility drug, giving birth to a 50-game suspension, since the substance ran awry of baseball’s performance enhancing drug policy.
So as the Dodgers wrapped up their 50-game stretch minus Manny, you would think things might have leveled off a bit, right? Well, in a word, wrong.
No, the Dodgers couldn’t keep up their 72.4 percent winning clip, but they probably couldn’t have done that even with Ramirez in the lineup. Here’s what they did, though: Go 29-21 and become the first team in the majors to reach 50 wins. And, oh, by the way, that 6.5 game lead in the N.L. West actually increased to seven games. The Dodgers are 50-29, and the second-place Giants are at 42-35.
On Wednesday night, in Los Angeles’ last game MM (Minus Manny), the Dodgers posted a 1-0 victory over Colorado --- and all the Rockies had done prior to that was win 21 of their previous 25 games.
Now, L.A. gets a day off before Manny Mania commences on Friday at Dodger Stadium. And the return of Ramirez should get off to a rousing start --- the Dodgers open a series with the last-place Padres, who are on a 10-20 freefall in their last 30 games.
Thursday’s Quick Hits:
The Yankees have won seven in a row and are on an 10-0 tear in home games against Seattle, by a whopping total score of 84-29, as that series concludes today in the Bronx.
New York starter CC Sabathia is 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA in his last 10 starts, and he’s 4-1 in his last six starts against the Mariners, with a sturdy 1.71 ERA.
The Cubs went 3-7 on their just completed 10-game road trip, but they’re on runs at Wrigley of 4-0 overall and 6-2 against winning teams, as they open a home set with Milwaukee.
Along with their aforementioned 10-20 purge in their last 30 games, the Padres have lost seven of their last eight against Houston, as they conclude a home set with the Astros.
The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last seven, as their series at Cincinnati resumes, but starter Doug Davis is 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 15 career starts against the Reds.
Reds pitcher Aaron Harang has a solid 1.66 ERA in eight starts against Arizona, but he’s only got a 2-4 record to show for it.
The Phillies, visiting Atlanta, are on a 4-13 skid, and the Braves have won six of eight against Philadelphia this year, after going 4-14 against the reigning World Series champs last year.
The White Sox, visiting Kansas City, have won five in a row, and Chicago has won three straight behind Mark Beuhrle (7-2, 3.26 ERA). The ChiSox have also won in six of Beuhrle’s last eight starts at Kauffman Stadium.
The Angels open a 10-game homestand today against the Orioles, against whom they’ve gone 14-5 in the last 19 clashes in Anaheim.
Thursday, July 2
Mistakes Players Make:
Often players -- and some handicappers -- will look at lines and scratch their heads, wondering if the oddsmakers are trying to tell them something.
What a waste of time.
Never forget that lines are always set -- and adjusted -- to inspire equal action on both sides, assuring the house of a profit.
When I look at a baseball line, my first thought is whether the game in question is priced accordingly, not from an oddsmaker's perspective as to whether they can get equal action, but rather if there is inequality in the posted price when comparing the pitchers and how their two teams are currently playing.
Doubters will say the oddsmakers are trying to tell us something. I say that's rubbish because over the years I've found at the end of a baseball season the oddsmakers make more mistakes than most casual players ever realize. The key is trying to spot those errors and take advantage of them.
The aforementioned philosophy led to my selection of the Chicago White Sox as Wednesday's Best Bet. Simply put, the line on their game at Cleveland was out of whack with the Pale Hose going off as a +105 underdog.
As I noted in my pre-game analysis -- which you can read by clicking through to my homepage -- the Chicago offense had plated 17 runs in taking the first two games of the series. Plus, the White Sox had averaged 6.7 runs while winning eight of 10, scoring six or more in seven of those outings. Even better, this was a team that was on a 12-4 run on the road where they were hitting .284 on the season.
Despite all of the above, the Indians -- a team in a 2-12 slump -- were favored. Go figure.
It certainly wasn't because of their pitcher, Jeremy Sowers, who was 0-4 lifetime against Chicago.
It certainly wasn't because Cleveland was 2-8 in Sowers' starts this season entering Wednesday's action.
But rather than figure out why, I simply acknowledged the obvious: it was a bad line. And considering my 27-14 Best Bet run over the previous 10 weeks, I was in the position to put my bankroll to work by backing the White Sox for the second time in three nights.
You know the rest of the story: Chicago won; Sowers was gone after allowing 11 hits and five runs in six innings; the White Sox collected 13 hits for the game.
Sometimes, Numbers Beat Expectations:
Fifty games ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers were welding-torch hot. They had Manny Ramirez in the lineup, a 21-8 record and had already built a 6.5-game lead in the National League West.
Then ManRam got rapped pretty hard on the knuckles for taking some sort of female fertility drug, giving birth to a 50-game suspension, since the substance ran awry of baseball’s performance enhancing drug policy.
So as the Dodgers wrapped up their 50-game stretch minus Manny, you would think things might have leveled off a bit, right? Well, in a word, wrong.
No, the Dodgers couldn’t keep up their 72.4 percent winning clip, but they probably couldn’t have done that even with Ramirez in the lineup. Here’s what they did, though: Go 29-21 and become the first team in the majors to reach 50 wins. And, oh, by the way, that 6.5 game lead in the N.L. West actually increased to seven games. The Dodgers are 50-29, and the second-place Giants are at 42-35.
On Wednesday night, in Los Angeles’ last game MM (Minus Manny), the Dodgers posted a 1-0 victory over Colorado --- and all the Rockies had done prior to that was win 21 of their previous 25 games.
Now, L.A. gets a day off before Manny Mania commences on Friday at Dodger Stadium. And the return of Ramirez should get off to a rousing start --- the Dodgers open a series with the last-place Padres, who are on a 10-20 freefall in their last 30 games.
Thursday’s Quick Hits:
The Yankees have won seven in a row and are on an 10-0 tear in home games against Seattle, by a whopping total score of 84-29, as that series concludes today in the Bronx.
New York starter CC Sabathia is 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA in his last 10 starts, and he’s 4-1 in his last six starts against the Mariners, with a sturdy 1.71 ERA.
The Cubs went 3-7 on their just completed 10-game road trip, but they’re on runs at Wrigley of 4-0 overall and 6-2 against winning teams, as they open a home set with Milwaukee.
Along with their aforementioned 10-20 purge in their last 30 games, the Padres have lost seven of their last eight against Houston, as they conclude a home set with the Astros.
The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last seven, as their series at Cincinnati resumes, but starter Doug Davis is 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 15 career starts against the Reds.
Reds pitcher Aaron Harang has a solid 1.66 ERA in eight starts against Arizona, but he’s only got a 2-4 record to show for it.
The Phillies, visiting Atlanta, are on a 4-13 skid, and the Braves have won six of eight against Philadelphia this year, after going 4-14 against the reigning World Series champs last year.
The White Sox, visiting Kansas City, have won five in a row, and Chicago has won three straight behind Mark Beuhrle (7-2, 3.26 ERA). The ChiSox have also won in six of Beuhrle’s last eight starts at Kauffman Stadium.
The Angels open a 10-game homestand today against the Orioles, against whom they’ve gone 14-5 in the last 19 clashes in Anaheim.
The Sports Investing Professional
COMP.
Today's Play(s) - We do have one play today. This is a good
spot for the LA Angels. They are playing well right now and Lackey
has been improving where the Orioles had to wonder what just
happened after leading 5-1 in the 9th. Top that off with a plane trip
across 3 time zones and you have all the elements for a flat Orioles
perfomance. Normally, this game might have had a line of
about -130, so the strong opener is a real good indication as well
that tonight should belong to the HALO'S.
MLB - LA Angels -160[LISTED] Guthrie / Lackey 800 / 500
COMP.
Today's Play(s) - We do have one play today. This is a good
spot for the LA Angels. They are playing well right now and Lackey
has been improving where the Orioles had to wonder what just
happened after leading 5-1 in the 9th. Top that off with a plane trip
across 3 time zones and you have all the elements for a flat Orioles
perfomance. Normally, this game might have had a line of
about -130, so the strong opener is a real good indication as well
that tonight should belong to the HALO'S.
MLB - LA Angels -160[LISTED] Guthrie / Lackey 800 / 500
LT Profits
Bonus Play
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres u7.5 (-125)
The Under is now on a 12-2-1 run in the last 15 Houston Astros games after the first three games of this four-game series vs. the San Diego Padres all went Under, and given that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, look for more of the same tonight.
Granted, it took a minor miracle for the game last night to stay Under 8.5, as Houston led 6-1 in the middle of the fourth inning, but remember that shoddy defense was a contributing factor. Only three of those early runs was earned, and the fact that the teams needed that help to score is an indication of how difficult it is to score here. In fact, all games at Petco this year have averaged on 7.56 total runs combined.
Padres starter Kevin Correia has caught fire lately, as he has now recorded five consecutive Quality Starts. More impressive is the fact that this streak is not solely a function of pitching in this stadium, as two of those starts came on the road. It is also worth noting that Correia already has a Quality Start in his only start vs. the Astros this season, and that outing came at Houston in a more hitter-friendly stadium.
The Astros counter with Wandy Rodriguez, who is 6-6 but with a very good 3.35 ERA. Sure, Wandy has continued his annoying habit of pitching extremely well at home and being very mediocre on the road, but he did toss a gem in his last road start, allowing only one run an two hits in seven innings in a 4-1 Houston victory vs. the Minnesota Twins at the Metrodome. Rodriguez will also be aided by that fact that San Diego is batting .199 vs. southpaws at home.
This may look like a low total at first glance, but the Under is now 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in San Diego with five of those games producing a total runs output of seven or less.
MLB Free Pick: Astros, Padres Under 7.5 (-125)
Bonus Play
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres u7.5 (-125)
The Under is now on a 12-2-1 run in the last 15 Houston Astros games after the first three games of this four-game series vs. the San Diego Padres all went Under, and given that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, look for more of the same tonight.
Granted, it took a minor miracle for the game last night to stay Under 8.5, as Houston led 6-1 in the middle of the fourth inning, but remember that shoddy defense was a contributing factor. Only three of those early runs was earned, and the fact that the teams needed that help to score is an indication of how difficult it is to score here. In fact, all games at Petco this year have averaged on 7.56 total runs combined.
Padres starter Kevin Correia has caught fire lately, as he has now recorded five consecutive Quality Starts. More impressive is the fact that this streak is not solely a function of pitching in this stadium, as two of those starts came on the road. It is also worth noting that Correia already has a Quality Start in his only start vs. the Astros this season, and that outing came at Houston in a more hitter-friendly stadium.
The Astros counter with Wandy Rodriguez, who is 6-6 but with a very good 3.35 ERA. Sure, Wandy has continued his annoying habit of pitching extremely well at home and being very mediocre on the road, but he did toss a gem in his last road start, allowing only one run an two hits in seven innings in a 4-1 Houston victory vs. the Minnesota Twins at the Metrodome. Rodriguez will also be aided by that fact that San Diego is batting .199 vs. southpaws at home.
This may look like a low total at first glance, but the Under is now 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in San Diego with five of those games producing a total runs output of seven or less.
MLB Free Pick: Astros, Padres Under 7.5 (-125)
Willie Bee
Bonus Play
Astros -118 wave Wandy at Padres
If San Diego is going to earn a split in this four-game series with the Astros, they will have to beat Houston lefty Wandy Rodriguez in the getaway game Thursday afternoon. Kevin Correia will counter on the mound for the Padres.
After a nice 16-11 run by Houston during the month of June, fading the Astros this season has become a losing exercise. The ‘Stros managed to cost those playing against them about seven units of profit for the month and now have a good shot to get off to a 2-0 start for July this afternoon in San Diego when they close out their series with the Padres.
Houston has managed to take two of the first three games of the series, and sit one Jose Valverde pitch away from playing for a four-game sweep today. Roy Oswalt pitched the Astros to a 3-1 win on Monday and a 6-run outburst, keyed by a Chase Headley error, in the fourth last night paced the club to a 7-1 triumph, those wins sandwiching Valverde’s blown save on Tuesday in Game 2.
The positive turn for Houston has come as a result of better all-around play, from more timely hitting and good defense to improved results from the rotation and the ‘pen. Thursday’s game pits Astros lefthander Wandy Rodriguez (10-6, 3.35), by default the team’s No. 2 man behind Roy O, against San Diego righthander Kevin Correia (8-7, 4.23).
For the season Rodriguez has done a pretty good job with 10 quality starts among his 16 assignments. But just two of those have come over his last seven turns in the rotation. He's a funky little lefty who I've never been able to figure out despite having seen him pitch with regularity over his now five year career.
He does have the good start against the Padres earlier this season when he held them scoreless over eight innings in Houston back on May 8, limiting San Diego swatters to five hits while whiffing seven. With a 4-4 road record, Rodriguez is 10th in the NL with 90 Ks in 96.2 IP. But his downfall of late has been the long ball. Of the 12 homers he has allowed this season, 11 have come in his last five starts after allowing just one in his first 11 starts in '09. He surrendered just 14 in 25 starts, 137.1 IP, during the 2008 season.
San Diego batters own a .325 career average vs. Wandy (.878 OPS), and the two that have given the Houston lefty the most trouble are David Eckstein (7-18, .389) and Scott Hairston (4-9, .444). Of Hairston's four hits against Rodriguez, two have sailed beyond the confines of the park and another is a two-bagger.
Correia took a no-decision in a 5-4 SD loss in Houston on May 9, working six quality innings while allowing just two runs on four hits. He and the Padres have won four of his last five starts, and his strikeout numbers are up in his last two assignments, 16 in 13,.2 IP vs. the Rangers and A's.
With Kaz Matsui 0-for-8 lifetime against Correia, including four strikeouts, look for Jeff Keppinger to get the start at second base for Houston in this one. That will add a little offense perhaps, but it also takes away a little defensively from the Astros' infield. Overall, these Houston hitters are batting just .240 against Correia, with nary a long ball.
It may not be a clear, sunny day in San Diego on Thursday, but it should still be nice enough for an afternoon ball game under partly cloudy skies. A little on the cool side -- especially for what an old Texan like me is used to this time of year -- with a first pitch temp about 70º-72º. Winds are forecast from the WNW around 8-12 MPH, in from LF across towards 1B. At least that is the way the wind would travel if not for the buildings out in left field. We could very well see balls hit towards left not affected at all and winds hit out towards center pushed off towards the gap.
The man behind the mask calling the balls and strikes should be Laz Diaz. Judging by his 5-10 record for the home team this year (-8.25 units), he has surely heard some boos this year. The totals have gone 8-6-1 in favor of the Over in games Diaz has worked this year (7-4-1 when mark is 8½-10), with an average of 10.3 runs per contest.
To be honest, I don’t have a strong lean one way or the other with the numbers on this game: Houston drawing -115 to -125 chalk and the total at 7½. If I had to play something on this game, I’d take my chances with a small play on the Under since I suspect a few regular position players could be getting a day off.
Bonus Play
Astros -118 wave Wandy at Padres
If San Diego is going to earn a split in this four-game series with the Astros, they will have to beat Houston lefty Wandy Rodriguez in the getaway game Thursday afternoon. Kevin Correia will counter on the mound for the Padres.
After a nice 16-11 run by Houston during the month of June, fading the Astros this season has become a losing exercise. The ‘Stros managed to cost those playing against them about seven units of profit for the month and now have a good shot to get off to a 2-0 start for July this afternoon in San Diego when they close out their series with the Padres.
Houston has managed to take two of the first three games of the series, and sit one Jose Valverde pitch away from playing for a four-game sweep today. Roy Oswalt pitched the Astros to a 3-1 win on Monday and a 6-run outburst, keyed by a Chase Headley error, in the fourth last night paced the club to a 7-1 triumph, those wins sandwiching Valverde’s blown save on Tuesday in Game 2.
The positive turn for Houston has come as a result of better all-around play, from more timely hitting and good defense to improved results from the rotation and the ‘pen. Thursday’s game pits Astros lefthander Wandy Rodriguez (10-6, 3.35), by default the team’s No. 2 man behind Roy O, against San Diego righthander Kevin Correia (8-7, 4.23).
For the season Rodriguez has done a pretty good job with 10 quality starts among his 16 assignments. But just two of those have come over his last seven turns in the rotation. He's a funky little lefty who I've never been able to figure out despite having seen him pitch with regularity over his now five year career.
He does have the good start against the Padres earlier this season when he held them scoreless over eight innings in Houston back on May 8, limiting San Diego swatters to five hits while whiffing seven. With a 4-4 road record, Rodriguez is 10th in the NL with 90 Ks in 96.2 IP. But his downfall of late has been the long ball. Of the 12 homers he has allowed this season, 11 have come in his last five starts after allowing just one in his first 11 starts in '09. He surrendered just 14 in 25 starts, 137.1 IP, during the 2008 season.
San Diego batters own a .325 career average vs. Wandy (.878 OPS), and the two that have given the Houston lefty the most trouble are David Eckstein (7-18, .389) and Scott Hairston (4-9, .444). Of Hairston's four hits against Rodriguez, two have sailed beyond the confines of the park and another is a two-bagger.
Correia took a no-decision in a 5-4 SD loss in Houston on May 9, working six quality innings while allowing just two runs on four hits. He and the Padres have won four of his last five starts, and his strikeout numbers are up in his last two assignments, 16 in 13,.2 IP vs. the Rangers and A's.
With Kaz Matsui 0-for-8 lifetime against Correia, including four strikeouts, look for Jeff Keppinger to get the start at second base for Houston in this one. That will add a little offense perhaps, but it also takes away a little defensively from the Astros' infield. Overall, these Houston hitters are batting just .240 against Correia, with nary a long ball.
It may not be a clear, sunny day in San Diego on Thursday, but it should still be nice enough for an afternoon ball game under partly cloudy skies. A little on the cool side -- especially for what an old Texan like me is used to this time of year -- with a first pitch temp about 70º-72º. Winds are forecast from the WNW around 8-12 MPH, in from LF across towards 1B. At least that is the way the wind would travel if not for the buildings out in left field. We could very well see balls hit towards left not affected at all and winds hit out towards center pushed off towards the gap.
The man behind the mask calling the balls and strikes should be Laz Diaz. Judging by his 5-10 record for the home team this year (-8.25 units), he has surely heard some boos this year. The totals have gone 8-6-1 in favor of the Over in games Diaz has worked this year (7-4-1 when mark is 8½-10), with an average of 10.3 runs per contest.
To be honest, I don’t have a strong lean one way or the other with the numbers on this game: Houston drawing -115 to -125 chalk and the total at 7½. If I had to play something on this game, I’d take my chances with a small play on the Under since I suspect a few regular position players could be getting a day off.
Chris Jordan has a release:
200♦ MLB
Side Winner
#6 in a Row
Giants at Cardinals
#1 Yankees 11-7 vs. Atlanta (6/25)
#2 Rangers 3-2 vs. Arizona (6/25)
#3 Rockies 3-1 vs. Oakland (6/28)
#4 Yankees 8-5 vs. Seattle (6/30)
#5 White Sox 6-2 vs. Cleveland (7/1)
33-20 Run with Top-Rated MLB
200♦ MLB
Side Winner
#6 in a Row
Giants at Cardinals
#1 Yankees 11-7 vs. Atlanta (6/25)
#2 Rangers 3-2 vs. Arizona (6/25)
#3 Rockies 3-1 vs. Oakland (6/28)
#4 Yankees 8-5 vs. Seattle (6/30)
#5 White Sox 6-2 vs. Cleveland (7/1)
33-20 Run with Top-Rated MLB
