Thursday 06/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Jun 25, 2009

Dave Cokin

(919) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
(920) TAMPA BAY RAYS
Take "(919) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES"

The Phillies were shut down by Matt Garza Wednesday night, but they should find the serves of Andy Sonnanstine much more to their liking in the series finale. Rookie Antonio Bastardo's fly ball tendencies are playing better on the road than at home, which is not surprising. He'll have a tough challenge with the high scoring Rays, but I think he has the edge over Sonnanstine, and the Phils continue to be a force on the road. I'll got with Philly as small road dogs.

Yanks · Jun 25, 2009

R&R Totals

Free MLB Over-Under

Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates:

Total 8½ un-115

Yanks · Jun 25, 2009

Pure Lock

Free MLB Play

St Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets:

St Louis Cardinals -125

Yanks · Jun 25, 2009

Alex Smart

Today’s Free Pick

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25, 2009 7:07PM

PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

REASON FOR PICK: The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been very inconsistent this season, with long stretches of explosiveness and extended droughts of ineptness. In their last three games the Northern birds, they have been in full flight, popping 24 runs on the board. Going back a little further the Jays have scored 7 more runs or more 6 times in the L/8 games with their 4-5 hitters batting a combined .388 with five homers in those contests. They will go against one of MLB most consistent pitchers this season , Johnny Cueto ( 6-4,2.55 ERA) .Despite of his prowess, the natvie of the Dominican Republic has proven he is hittable of late, as was the case in his last effort vs the White Sox , as is evident by lasting just 4 2/3 innings allowing runs and 3 taters on 11 hits. The righty I'm betting will once again be in for tough outing against a Blue Jays team that is 41-17 in their L/58 games as home favorite. Hey I know the Blue Jays pitcher Brett Cecil (2-1, 4.26 ERA), has not looked overpowering and rather average , but it must be noted that the Reds manager Baker has seen his teams go just 3-18 L/21 vs AL teams with a starting pitcher with a ERA of 4.00 to 4.70, losing SU by an average of 2.8 RPG Final notes & Key Trends: Reds have lost 6 straight road games. Jays are 5-1 in the L/6 meetings in this series..........

Play on the Jays

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Gamblers Data

THURSDAY
MARLINS -122

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

SYSTEMPLAYS CURRENT PLAYS:

Thurs 6/25

MLB

NYM +109 ov STL

Det +107 ov CHC

Hou -115 ov KC

Was +115 ov Bos

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Scott Spreitzer

Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, June 25th, 7:05 PM ET

I'm playing the Phillies on Thursday. Tampa Bay has been unable to figure out southpaws in home night games this season. In fact, they enter tonight's contest with a 0-5 mark in this spot, scoring just 2.6 rpg. Philly southpaw Antonio Bastardo has three decent outings in his four starts this season. He's also much like the rest of the team...performing well on the road, and not so hot at home. Bastardo is 2-0 in his two road starts this season, allowing just three earned runs and 13 base runners in 11 innings. That's a 2.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Phils normally clobber righties away from home. Tonight, they face Andy Sonnanstine, who has been tagged for a 5.32 ERA in his last three outings. Look for the Phils to grab the road win on Thursday.
Play on: Philadelphia

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Vernon Croy

Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals (MLB)
Jun 25, 2009 7:05 PM EDT

Play: Boston Red Sox

Take the Boston Red Sox on the Moneyline, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and there is just too much value here tonight to pass up with the superior overall team at this low price. The Red Sox are now 10-1 in their last 11 games against the Red Sox and they are 8-1 in their last 9 road games. John Smoltz makes his 1st start since June.2 2008 so he will likely be limited to 85-90 pitches and he has dominated the Nationals since 2007 with an ERA of just 1.77 over 7 starts against them. Smoltz pitched solid over his 6 rehab starts in the minors with an ERA of just 2.63 and I look for him to have a solid outing against this Nationals line-up tonight. The Red Sox are an AL best 15-5 in June and their bullpen has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.97 over 109 innings so if Smoltz does get into trouble they can depend on their bullpen. The Nationals are just 1-6 in Jordan Zimmermann's (2-3, 5.03 ERA) last 7 starts and they are just 2-9 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Zimmerman has only lasted an average of 5.6 innings per start over his last 3 outings and the Nationals bullpen although they have pitched better lately they have struggled at home this season with an ERA of 5.40. Take the Boston Red Sox

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Robbie Gainous

MLB | Jun 25
TORONTO

The Cincinnati Reds have found the going tough at the Rogers Centre versus the host Toronto Blue Jays losing both of the first two games in this three-game set. They face a Blue Jays squad that is 64-36 W/L (+18.2) when playing at home with a line range of -150 or less the last three seasons. Toronto is 40-17 W/L their last fifty-seven games as a home favorite and 17-8 W/L their last twenty-five home games facing a right-handed starter. The Reds are 8-24 W/L their last thirty-two interleague road games versus teams with a winning record and 6-18 W/L their last twenty-four interleague road games facing a left-handed starter. All bad signs for a Reds team that needs a win to halt a sweep in this series on Thursday night. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Blue Jays win over the Reds by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also signals a sweep by the Jays on Thursday night at the Rogers Centre. Lay the short price with the host as the Jays take all three games in their interleague matchup with the Reds.
Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 6 Cincinnati Reds 4

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Frank Jordan

Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
Jun 25, 2009 7:05 PM EDT

Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh had the bats out last night scoring 10 runs mainly in the 4th inning with 6 runs winning 6-3 despite three errors. In the rubber match of the series of bordering state teams a pair of 6 loss pitcher going at it as 4-6 Cliff Lee with the era under 3 against Ross Ohlendorf who is at .500 at 6-6, but the era is a little high just under 5. Look for Ohlendorf to raise his game going up against the raining Cy Young award winner and lead Pittsburgh to the 6-5 win. Play Pittsburgh

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

John Fina
June 25, 2009

Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (-105)

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Bobby Maxwell

A classic pitching matchup about eight years ago taking place tonight in Atlanta as the Yankees send lefty Andy Pettite (7-3, 4.26 ERA) to the mound at Turner Field to face the Braves' Derek Lowe (7-5, 4.09).
We're going to play the home team as they Yankees are just 5-9 in their last 14 overall, 2-6 on the road and 1-4 against right-handed starters.
Lowe is 3-1 in his starts in Atlanta this season with a 3.27 ERA and the Braves are 4-1 in his last five starts against winning teams. Saturday he gave up three runs on seven hits in 6.1 innings at Boston in a 3-0 loss. He has plenty of experience against the Yankees, going 8-10 in 39 career appearances against the Bronx Bombers.
The Braves are on positive streaks of 5-3 at home, 13-7 against winning teams and in interleague games, they are on runs of 6-1 at home, and 8-4 against winning squads.
Look for Atlanta to get great pitching from Lowe and get enough runs across the plate to make this an easy winner. It'll be in the 5-2 range.

4♦ ATLANTA

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Sports Gambling Hotline

Another winner on the Tigers last night, as we are now on a 13-8 comp
For Thursday night, take the Yankees to capture the rubber game of their three game series with the Braves.
New York claimed the 8-4 win last night, and starter Andy Pettitte has been much better on the road this year then he has been at home.
At home, the southpaw is just 3-2 with an ERA near 6. On the road, Pettitte has gone 4-1 with a slim 2.35 ERA, and he is fresh off a road win over Florida last Friday night. The guy likes to pitch in the heat, and he will get some heat tonight in HOT-lanta.
Derek Lowe counters off back-to-back losses, allowing 10 runs in just 8 innings of work.
The New York bats showed some life last night, and we like them to show some more life tonight in the win.
Play on the Yankees.

1♦ NY YANKEES

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Brad Diamond Sports FREE MLB - Thursday

Play on: (969) Kansas City (Bannister) over Houston

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Drew Gordon

Good value to be had here with the Orioles, as they attempt to avoid the sweep tonight at Landshark Stadium. Although the O's have traditionally struggled vs. the Fish, they have a couple things going for them in this match up, and it all starts with the pitching match up...
While rookie Sean West had had some nice efforts this season, his last two starts were anything but "nice." He got tagged for 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings at Toronto (walking 4), but escaped with the win. And then, in his last one, he allowed 5 runs on a whopping 10 hits in just 4 innings against the Yankees at home. Rookie tend to have their ups-and-downs, and right now, I simply cannot trust West in this spot.
Another problem for West and the Marlins is that it appears Rich Hill may have finally found his groove. It took him some time after missing part of the season, but his last start was vintage, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits over 6 2/3 innings at the Phillies. He did walk 4 batters, but overall it was one of his best starts of the season, and one he can definately build off of.
Finally, don't discount the Orioles offense in this contest, as despite their two straight losses, they've been swinging the bats extremely well of late. Note, over their last 10 games Baltimore is batting .310 as a team, including .286 against lefties... You best believe they'll get plenty of oppurtunities against the rookie West! In the end, the Marlins enjoyed big-time pitching edges in the first two games of this series, but this time around, the edge goes to the Orioles. Look for that to be the difference in this contest, as the O's avoids the sweep Thursday night!
Take Baltimore behind Hill over Florida and West in this MLB match up.

1♦ BALTIMORE

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Cajun Sports
MLB

Date/Time: Thursday June 25 / 7:05PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Side
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays -110

Analysis:
The Cincinnati Reds have found the going tough at the Rogers Centre versus the host Toronto Blue Jays losing both of the first two games in this three-game set. They face a Blue Jays squad that is 64-36 W/L (+18.2) when playing at home with a line range of -150 or less the last three seasons. Toronto is 40-17 W/L their last fifty-seven games as a home favorite and 17-8 W/L their last twenty-five home games facing a right-handed starter. The Reds are 8-24 W/L their last thirty-two interleague road games versus teams with a winning record and 6-18 W/L their last twenty-four interleague road games facing a left-handed starter. All bad signs for a Reds team that needs a win to halt a sweep in this series on Thursday night. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Blue Jays win over the Reds by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also signals a sweep by the Jays on Thursday night at the Rogers Centre. Lay the short price with the host as the Jays take all three games in their interleague matchup with the Reds.

Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 6 Cincinnati Reds 4

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Trace adams

cincinnati

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

JEFF BENTON

This play comes down to one simple belief: You cannot trust Roy Oswalt to lay this kind of price right now. Yes, the Astros ace was once considered a Top 5 pitcher in the game, but no longer. This season, he’s been maddeningly inconsistent, so much so that he’s had consecutive quality starts just once in 15 starts this season.

Going back to May 5, Oswalt has made nine trips to the hill and given up at least four runs in five of those contests, and his ERA has jumped nearly a full run during that stretch, from 3.82 to 4.48. In his last outing Friday in Minnesota, he pitched eight innings, but gave up five runs, 10 hits and four walks, losing 5-2. That makes Houston just 6-8 in Oswalt’s starts this season, including 2-5 in his last seven.

Now, granted, Royals starter Luke Hochevar has had his own consistency issues and his 2-3 record and 6.61 ERA are pretty horrific. However, prior to his last start against Arizona (12-5 loss), the former No. 1 overall pick had pitched back-to-back gems, allowing three runs and seven hits in 15 2/3 innings, beating Toronto 6-2 on the road and Cincinnati 4-1 at home. (In fact, he went the distance against the Reds.)

Even with the ugly loss to the DBacks, the Royals are still 3-2 in Hochevar’s last five outings, scoring a total of 22 runs. Throw in the fact that after last night’s win, K.C. is now 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games while the Astros have lost seven of 10 interleague contests overall, 17 of 24 to the A.L. Central and five of Oswalt’s last six against the A.L., and I’ll gladly jump on this generous plus price.
(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

3♦ KANSAS CITY

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Tony Mathews

Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

Selection: New York Mets (+105)

Sportsaholic · Jun 25, 2009

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

TEXAS (-120)

Analysis: Member Play: The Texas Rangers have finally snapped their losing streak,
but they?re still trying to break out of a surprising offensive slump. A
matchup with Jon Garland may help. The Rangers have traditionally presented
major problems for the Arizona Diamondbacks? right-hander, but Garland
will be coming off one of his best outings of the season when the teams
settle their three-game set in Phoenix on Thursday night. For his career,
Garland is 5-8 with a 6.39 ERA versus Texas, and Chris Davis
has two home runs in five at-bats off Garland. Texas is 16-9 (+6.4 units) when
playing against a team with a losing record; play on the RANGERS!