hno:Ted Sevransky
GAME: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs May 28, 2009 8:05PM
PICK: Chicago Cubs -130
REASON FOR PICK: After a truly dismal 0-6 road trip and a ‘hangover’ loss in their first game back at Wrigley Field, the Chicago Cubs have righted the ship with back-2-back victories in the last two days. A team that was pressing and struggling is now considerably more confident and relaxed, as clearly evidenced by Lou Pinella’s joking to the media after Carlos Zambrano got thrown out of the game last night.
Since their 4-4 start, the Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 at Wrigley, a team built to dominate on their home field. Don’t be fooled for a moment by Chicago’s position in fourth place in the NL Central. This team remains one of the ‘class’ teams in the NL, and we’re not likely to find a better ‘buy low’ scenario on the Cubs than the one we’re looking at today.
Rookie righty Randy Wells has been nothing short of outstanding in replacement of the injured Rich Harden. In his first three big league starts, Wells has allowed only 14 hits and 3 runs while striking out 16. In his last outing, he needed only 95 pitches to get through seven full innings against the red hot Padres. Wells has a strong ’buy’ sign on him right now.
Let’s not forget how the Dodgers embarrassed the Cubs in the playoffs last October, winning the first two games right here at Wrigley – this is one of those rare regular season games that actually has some real meaning for the home team. LA starter Randy Wolf has come back to earth after a red hot start. In three starts against the Cubs last year, Wolf lost twice, with an ERA of 6.32. As a team, the Cubs hit .323 against him.
Chicago hits lefties better than righties at home and has hit 38 points higher against southpaws in their last ten games. Put it all together and we can expect the Dodgers to come back to earth in a hurry tonight following their three game sweep in Colorado.
2* Take Chicago
GAME: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs May 28, 2009 8:05PM
PICK: Chicago Cubs -130
REASON FOR PICK: After a truly dismal 0-6 road trip and a ‘hangover’ loss in their first game back at Wrigley Field, the Chicago Cubs have righted the ship with back-2-back victories in the last two days. A team that was pressing and struggling is now considerably more confident and relaxed, as clearly evidenced by Lou Pinella’s joking to the media after Carlos Zambrano got thrown out of the game last night.
Since their 4-4 start, the Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 at Wrigley, a team built to dominate on their home field. Don’t be fooled for a moment by Chicago’s position in fourth place in the NL Central. This team remains one of the ‘class’ teams in the NL, and we’re not likely to find a better ‘buy low’ scenario on the Cubs than the one we’re looking at today.
Rookie righty Randy Wells has been nothing short of outstanding in replacement of the injured Rich Harden. In his first three big league starts, Wells has allowed only 14 hits and 3 runs while striking out 16. In his last outing, he needed only 95 pitches to get through seven full innings against the red hot Padres. Wells has a strong ’buy’ sign on him right now.
Let’s not forget how the Dodgers embarrassed the Cubs in the playoffs last October, winning the first two games right here at Wrigley – this is one of those rare regular season games that actually has some real meaning for the home team. LA starter Randy Wolf has come back to earth after a red hot start. In three starts against the Cubs last year, Wolf lost twice, with an ERA of 6.32. As a team, the Cubs hit .323 against him.
Chicago hits lefties better than righties at home and has hit 38 points higher against southpaws in their last ten games. Put it all together and we can expect the Dodgers to come back to earth in a hurry tonight following their three game sweep in Colorado.
2* Take Chicago
Jimmy The Moose
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Both teams come into this one having lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Braves have won 5 of their last 7 games as a dog. Atlanta has won 5 of Lowe's last 6 starts overall. In his last 5 road starts they are 4-1. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 6 home games. They are 3-13 in their last 16 games as ahome favorite betweem -110 & -150. Arizona is 2-5 in the last 7 meetings. Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games in Arizona. Play on the Atlanta Braves +.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Dodgers as they face the Cubs slated to start at 8:00. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-14 for 70% winners and has made 21 units since 2003. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a good hitting team batting >=.275 facing an excellent NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=2.70. Dodgers are 15-5 (+10.1 Units) against the money line versus poor fielding teams that are turning 0.8 or less DP's/game this season. And starter Wolf is a solid 19-7 (+12.8 Units) against the money line versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta ace Derek Lowe has shut down the Diamondbacks in his last two starts against them as he has gone 14 scoreless innings, both team wins. He is pitching well again, in his last three starts he has a 2.45 ERA averaging over seven runs per ballgame. This is a revenge game for the Braves as the Diamondbacks shutout them out 12-0 just a few weeks ago in Atlanta. Arizona is just 7-12 SU this season as a home favorite. Go with Atlanta
Play on: Atlanta
Drew Gordon
Detroit at BALTIMORE -140
Let me start this analysis by saying: I know its never easy to lay this kind of money on a pitcher making his Major League debut, but rest-assured, this is the right move in this contest and here's why:
Before we discuss David Hernandez, let's talk about Armando Galarraga. The Tigers righty has been an absolute disaster this month, going 0-4 with a mind-boggling 9.93 ERA! He's only one month removed from opening the season 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA, which is why so many bettors are salivating at the chance to back him at plus money... DO NOT make the mistake of living in the past, as Galarraga is pitching nowhere near the level he was in April, plain and simple.
On the flip side, while Hernandez is making his debut, let's not simply dismiss him because of it. He was rock-solid in Triple-A Norfolk, where he went 2-1 with 2.91 ERA in 8 starts. His last start saw him strike out 14 batters (led his league in K's), and you better believe that's a big reason he's getting his shot tonight. But that's only part of the reason I like the O's here.
Finally, the biggest factor in my siding with Baltimore has been their red-hot hitting of late, backed by some young guns who have hit the ground running, including Nolan Reimold. Not to mention, one of the O's biggest names makes his Debut tonight in catcher Matt Wieters, who many people consider the best prospect in baseball. Couple them with Markakis, Jones, and Scott and all of a sudden you can see why Galarraga is in SO much trouble tonight.
Small play on Baltimore behind Hernandez over Detroit and Galarraga in this MLB match up.
1♦ BALTIMORE
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Both teams come into this one having lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Braves have won 5 of their last 7 games as a dog. Atlanta has won 5 of Lowe's last 6 starts overall. In his last 5 road starts they are 4-1. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 6 home games. They are 3-13 in their last 16 games as ahome favorite betweem -110 & -150. Arizona is 2-5 in the last 7 meetings. Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games in Arizona. Play on the Atlanta Braves +.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Dodgers as they face the Cubs slated to start at 8:00. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-14 for 70% winners and has made 21 units since 2003. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a good hitting team batting >=.275 facing an excellent NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=2.70. Dodgers are 15-5 (+10.1 Units) against the money line versus poor fielding teams that are turning 0.8 or less DP's/game this season. And starter Wolf is a solid 19-7 (+12.8 Units) against the money line versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta ace Derek Lowe has shut down the Diamondbacks in his last two starts against them as he has gone 14 scoreless innings, both team wins. He is pitching well again, in his last three starts he has a 2.45 ERA averaging over seven runs per ballgame. This is a revenge game for the Braves as the Diamondbacks shutout them out 12-0 just a few weeks ago in Atlanta. Arizona is just 7-12 SU this season as a home favorite. Go with Atlanta
Play on: Atlanta
Drew Gordon
Detroit at BALTIMORE -140
Let me start this analysis by saying: I know its never easy to lay this kind of money on a pitcher making his Major League debut, but rest-assured, this is the right move in this contest and here's why:
Before we discuss David Hernandez, let's talk about Armando Galarraga. The Tigers righty has been an absolute disaster this month, going 0-4 with a mind-boggling 9.93 ERA! He's only one month removed from opening the season 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA, which is why so many bettors are salivating at the chance to back him at plus money... DO NOT make the mistake of living in the past, as Galarraga is pitching nowhere near the level he was in April, plain and simple.
On the flip side, while Hernandez is making his debut, let's not simply dismiss him because of it. He was rock-solid in Triple-A Norfolk, where he went 2-1 with 2.91 ERA in 8 starts. His last start saw him strike out 14 batters (led his league in K's), and you better believe that's a big reason he's getting his shot tonight. But that's only part of the reason I like the O's here.
Finally, the biggest factor in my siding with Baltimore has been their red-hot hitting of late, backed by some young guns who have hit the ground running, including Nolan Reimold. Not to mention, one of the O's biggest names makes his Debut tonight in catcher Matt Wieters, who many people consider the best prospect in baseball. Couple them with Markakis, Jones, and Scott and all of a sudden you can see why Galarraga is in SO much trouble tonight.
Small play on Baltimore behind Hernandez over Detroit and Galarraga in this MLB match up.
1♦ BALTIMORE
IC THURSDAY'S COMP PLAY:
Take Over 94.5 for the First Half between the Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers. We have seen this occur before between these two teams as the pace in Cleveland is one that is more lively than in Orlando - plus, it is more lively than the second half when defense is likely to take more of a precedence. With all the emotion going on for Cleveland in this game being down 3-1, I expect them to come out with a lot of firepower and in the same token, I don't expect the Magic to simply lay down here as they are likely to keep pace. I look for the first half to be relatively high scoring and the early total to be pushed over. A 50-45 half gets the first half over and despite who takes the side, with emotions riding high in the first portion of this game, the total likely goes a bit over
Take Over 94.5 for the First Half between the Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers. We have seen this occur before between these two teams as the pace in Cleveland is one that is more lively than in Orlando - plus, it is more lively than the second half when defense is likely to take more of a precedence. With all the emotion going on for Cleveland in this game being down 3-1, I expect them to come out with a lot of firepower and in the same token, I don't expect the Magic to simply lay down here as they are likely to keep pace. I look for the first half to be relatively high scoring and the early total to be pushed over. A 50-45 half gets the first half over and despite who takes the side, with emotions riding high in the first portion of this game, the total likely goes a bit over
OC Dooley:
"1 UNIT" NATIONAL-TV BASEBALL SYSTEM (Cubs -125 at home versus Dodgers in a 8:05 eastern start broadcast on the MLB Network--------Wolf versus Wells): One has to wonder why the oddsmakers have cast Chicago as such a substantial favorite considering that earlier this week the Cubs were riding a horrible 8-game losing streak. In addition Lou Piniella's troops are a favorite tonight against an opponent (33-15) who just happens to have the best overall record in baseball. Of course one of the main reasons why the Dodgers have been so successful is that the bulk of their contests have been against relatively weak competition in the weak National League West Division. Just this week Los Angeles got out the broom and swept a road series against one of those National League West weaklings (Rockies). It will be interesting to see how Los Angeles handles a road set this weekend against both a bitter and quality opponent. Tonight marks the Cubs first shot against the Dodgers since being humiliated during last year's playoffs so there will be plenty of extra energy in the stands. Chicago is a favorite tonight even though they have a rookie "fill in" on the mound as Randy Wells has spelled a pair of injured rotation veterans (Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden). There is no question that Wells has taken full advantage of his opportunity to pitch at the major league level starting his career twirling 20 consecutive SCORELESS innings. The last time Wells was on the mound he showed exceptional control by throwing 61 of 95 pitches for stikes as he constantly stayed ahead in the count. The bottom line is that tonight Wells will attempt to make a 4th consecutive QUALITY start. He goes against Dodgers veteran Randy Wolf who last time on the mound allowed "double digits" in the hits department. Even though his team has an outstanding overall record, Wolf just happens to lead the entire National League recording 7 different "no decisions". To make matters even worse, Wolf has a poor 3-7 career record against the Cubs. In the past 10 outings the injury-riddled Chicago offense has barely managed to average 3 runs per contest. But the Cubs on Wednesday became proactive and recalled Jake Fox who leads the Pacific Coast League in batting average (.423), homeruns (17) and RBI (50) which just happen to be all the "triple crown" categories. Whether he plays in the outfield or in place of injured thirdbaseman Aramis Ramirez who was batting .364 before suffering a dislocated shoulder, it is worth tuning in the MLB Network tonight in order to watch Fox play. The Cubs also have just called up infielder Andres Blanco (.314) who was hitting very well in the minors. It is worth noting that even though the Dodgers just swept a series on the road, they hit ZERO homeruns. Here is a dazzling 75-PERCENT SYSTEM (41-14 since 1997 in the month of MAY) which goes AGAINST small underdogs like the Dodgers who average at least 5.3 runs per game on offense, and are facing an excellent starting pitcher whose ERA is below the THREE mark. My research indicates that in the past two years, the Cubs are an outstanding 24-6/HOME in the month of May. Check all calendars
"1 UNIT" NATIONAL-TV BASEBALL SYSTEM (Cubs -125 at home versus Dodgers in a 8:05 eastern start broadcast on the MLB Network--------Wolf versus Wells): One has to wonder why the oddsmakers have cast Chicago as such a substantial favorite considering that earlier this week the Cubs were riding a horrible 8-game losing streak. In addition Lou Piniella's troops are a favorite tonight against an opponent (33-15) who just happens to have the best overall record in baseball. Of course one of the main reasons why the Dodgers have been so successful is that the bulk of their contests have been against relatively weak competition in the weak National League West Division. Just this week Los Angeles got out the broom and swept a road series against one of those National League West weaklings (Rockies). It will be interesting to see how Los Angeles handles a road set this weekend against both a bitter and quality opponent. Tonight marks the Cubs first shot against the Dodgers since being humiliated during last year's playoffs so there will be plenty of extra energy in the stands. Chicago is a favorite tonight even though they have a rookie "fill in" on the mound as Randy Wells has spelled a pair of injured rotation veterans (Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden). There is no question that Wells has taken full advantage of his opportunity to pitch at the major league level starting his career twirling 20 consecutive SCORELESS innings. The last time Wells was on the mound he showed exceptional control by throwing 61 of 95 pitches for stikes as he constantly stayed ahead in the count. The bottom line is that tonight Wells will attempt to make a 4th consecutive QUALITY start. He goes against Dodgers veteran Randy Wolf who last time on the mound allowed "double digits" in the hits department. Even though his team has an outstanding overall record, Wolf just happens to lead the entire National League recording 7 different "no decisions". To make matters even worse, Wolf has a poor 3-7 career record against the Cubs. In the past 10 outings the injury-riddled Chicago offense has barely managed to average 3 runs per contest. But the Cubs on Wednesday became proactive and recalled Jake Fox who leads the Pacific Coast League in batting average (.423), homeruns (17) and RBI (50) which just happen to be all the "triple crown" categories. Whether he plays in the outfield or in place of injured thirdbaseman Aramis Ramirez who was batting .364 before suffering a dislocated shoulder, it is worth tuning in the MLB Network tonight in order to watch Fox play. The Cubs also have just called up infielder Andres Blanco (.314) who was hitting very well in the minors. It is worth noting that even though the Dodgers just swept a series on the road, they hit ZERO homeruns. Here is a dazzling 75-PERCENT SYSTEM (41-14 since 1997 in the month of MAY) which goes AGAINST small underdogs like the Dodgers who average at least 5.3 runs per game on offense, and are facing an excellent starting pitcher whose ERA is below the THREE mark. My research indicates that in the past two years, the Cubs are an outstanding 24-6/HOME in the month of May. Check all calendars
