Jeff Benton
I’ve hit back-to-back Bonus Plays after the Pirates pulled it out in the ninth inning at Washington on Wednesday. For Thursday, we’ll head to the NBA Western Conference finals and play the Lakers-Nuggets game OVER the total.
I know I scored a 5 Dime winner with the “under” in Game 1 of this series, but to be honest, it was a lucky winner. The teams were on pace for an “over” after halftime and only a low-scoring third quarter (41 total points) and some poor free-throw shooting by Denver kept the score down. Even with those two factors, the squads still combined for 208 points – this despite going 73-for-164 from the field (44.5 percent).
You have to believe that both teams will shoot a higher percentage tonight and you also have to figure that Denver will improve from the foul line and at least match its season free-throw average of 76 percent. What’s more, aside from Kobe Bryant (40 points) and Carmelo Anthony (39 points), no other player had a real big scoring night. That’s likely to change tonight, too, while Kobe and ‘Melo aren’t about to be slowed down.
Finally, going back to last year, the under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. However, that’s mostly because the posted totals have been through the roof. Fact is, these squads have gone way over 200 points in seven of the last 10 meetings with combined totals of 215, 242, 229, 208, 201, 218 and 208. Also, the last six battles in Los Angeles have had an average combined total of 217.7 ppg. This has shootout written all over it, folks. Play it OVER the posted price.
3? Nuggets-Lakers OVER the total
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