Thu-Sun

[rolltide]

Columbus vs RBNY
- You have to expect some goals in this match. Red Bulls lead the league in shots attempted and in offsides calls as they are constantly pushing forward. Their SOG % will improve if last year's numbers are any indication when they led the East in goals scored despite being 3-rd-to-last in shots attempted. Defensively only Chicago have allowed more goals in the entire league and this week they'll again be without workhorse holding MF, Dax McCarty, out injured. Columbus' defense far worse than their GA would suggest. A lovely 3-0 win vs DC looks great until you see they were outshot 21-7 and saw DC whip 30 open play crosses in on them...and factor in that DC is the most pathetic offense in the league with .5 goal scored per game and was 2nd-to-last in shots attempted before the Cbus game. This performance was right on the heels of the loss in Chciago where they again allowed 21 shots and 24 crosses so clearly they're not stopping teams from penetrating their defensive third. The rather fortunate clean sheet was their first over a team not named Chivas USA since last summer. Red Bulls nice offense even on road where they've scored in all but once game since last summer in Houston and a tremendous attacking potential with Cahill, Juninho, Henry, and Espindola. I see a back and forth match with a ton of good chances like last year's meetings that ended 3-1 and 4-1 to the Red Bulls.

Cbus/Rbny over 2.5 2.5/10 2.63u to win 2.5u

 

[rolltide]

today took:

HJK 1u to win .7u (finland)
Lara -0.25 1u to win .9u (venez)

 

[rolltide]

Fri Ger

Gladbach vs Schalke
- Gladbach 11 straight without losing at home and only one league loss here since Sept...still plenty to play for pushing for Europa League or even Champions League play-in spot currently held by Schalke. Home teams dominate this series as well as nobody has won away since 2006 with home team 9-2-0 in last 11 meetings. Obviously Huntelaar is on fire with 5 goals in 3 games so need to contain him but only Bayern and Leverkusen have better home goal defense than Gladbach who have allowed more than 1 goal here just once since that loss in November and have posted 3 straight clean sheets.

M'Gladbach +1/2 1u to win .78u (from the other thread...prices now 1.81-1.82)

 

[rolltide]

lineups are in and a couple of adds

San Jose vs Montreal
-tough spot for Impact coming off midweek match then head 3 time zones and play a matinee match. No nesta, no bernier who are IMO their best players. SJ first time all year with a near normal first XI with only the bash brothers missing. Montreal have been awesome in 1H (only 1 goal allowed) but are beatable in 2H. Montreal will just have too many crosses and corners coming at them today to post a clean sheet

San Jose 1u to win .9u

Philadelphia vs Seattle
- odds moving for Philly and I don't totally agree. Seattle have been playing better than results suggest but missing that attacking option without Montero. Again injuries up front today without Zak n Martins plus no Shalrie in middle but they are better, man for man, in every position. Seattle have been solid getting points in the east and I think they'll grab one here

Seattle +1/2 1u to win .75u

also adding 1H small bet on Cbus/RBNY over 1 goal at evens. Red Bulls lead MLS with 10 first half goals. 1H over 1 goal .5u to win .5u

 

[rolltide]

Montreal will just have too many crosses and corners coming at them today

ended up being a shitty weekend but sometimes you can call out a match perfectly and still lose. check out the crosses/corners stats from SJ/MTL

13	Corner Kicks	0
49	Open Play Crosses	7

 

[rolltide]

for the "fucked up stat of the week" look no further than the appalling rate that penalty kicks are being converted this season in MLS.

only 11 out of 20 (that's 55% math wiz) have been converted successfully this year and at least one of those had to be retaken after a miss due to Roy Miller's intentional encroachment before it was netted. The world avg is about 83% so 6 of those 9 misses you'd expect to see in the net. Biggest offenders are LA Galaxy (errr....landon donovan) missing 2 of their 3 and chivas usa missing both of their tries.

 

[rolltide]

another annoying tidbit...

matches on NBCSports Network this season have seen 2 overs, 11 unders .... the boys aren't exactly entertaining folks on national tv.

 

[Mutiny]

Crappy weekends happen. As always RT, thanks for taking the time to post.

 

[rolltide]

well can't say i'm helping anyone all that much right now but one saving grace is I've kept my stakes lower than in past years where 4-6u bets were a weekly occurrence. I've not seen a year where in-game dominance proved nothing in the FT score.

one play i took for midweek in Costa Rica was at 5dimes....Costa Rica...Saprissa to advance 2u to win 2.3u

 

[luigi1]

If can suggest,this evening here in italy are ALL on the victory -1 of sassuolo: if wins, raises in serie a next season.

italian serie b

sassuolo -1