Thoughts on Missouri vs Oklahoma State

[prodigy]

the new clock rules have absolutely no effect on missouri... they don't huddle so the change in play clock means very little... other than some passes on the sideline, which mizz actually works the middle of the field mostly w/ their spread, these new rules don't matter with this particular team.

last yr mizz games avg 153 plays/game
this yr 148 plays/game
that's a 3% decrease in plays

last yr mizz scored less than 40 pts twice in b12 play- at oklahoma and vs kansas
this yr they've already scored more than 50 pts on the road at nebraska and over 50 neutral vs illinois with a fumble inside the 5

they also had 3 scoring drives of less than 2 minutes last week and didn't even score in the 4th qtr, scoring 52 pts in 3 qtrs on the road in conference!!1

if you're counting on the new clock rules to slow mizz down you're making a big mistake imo

good luck
:toast:

point is that theyre playing a team that can run the football on them as well as a team who isnt susceptible to going 3-out the way some of their earlier opponents were. mizzou will score at will on this team. but that doesnt mean they will crack 50.

nowhere in my post did i say anything about 'slowing missouri down'
not sure where you read that.

its just very tough to keep such a pace up over the course of a season, esp in conference play. new clock rules can chunk away quarters almost nfl-style.

 

[trentmoney]

point is that theyre playing a team that can run the football on them as well as a team who isnt susceptible to going 3-out the way some of their earlier opponents were. mizzou will score at will on this team. but that doesnt mean they will crack 50.

nowhere in my post did i say anything about 'slowing missouri down'
not sure where you read that.

its just very tough to keep such a pace up over the course of a season, esp in conference play. new clock rules can chunk away quarters almost nfl-style.

yes, but my point is that with this particular team, due to the fact they don't huddle and snap the ball so quickly, the clock rules have little effect on them... and if mizz jumps to a lead as they should, unless you expect ok st defense to contain them, then ok st won't be able to just slow the clock

i understand your point in a broad sense, but i'm telling you, the clock rules mean nothing with this particular team...i was at the game vs illinois and i can't tell you how exhausted their defense was, and it's due to the pace of the game that mizz plays... and illinois offense wasn't going 3&out, but because of mizz offense efficiency, you get sucked into that type of game

don't you think illinois and nebraska coordinators wanted to slow those games down..?? you can't, regardless of clock rules, they play at too quick a pace

like i said, 5 less plays a game from last yr which is insignificant imo

 

[gynecologist]

Missouri scored 52 on Illinois..

 

[trentmoney]

Missouri scored 52 on Illinois..

yes, and they fumbled inside the 5 in the 1st qtr or 59 would have hung on the scoreboard

 

[prodigy]

its really not about who scored what versus who. its more about the inevitable regression to the mean in terms of efficiency coupled with the types of opponents that await missouri. there are so many games in both college and pro football where one offense is completely dominant, moves the ball up and down the field, scores points on every possession ... and still falls right around 35-40 points. its incredibly hard to score 50 points in a football game.

 

[gynecologist]

How many possessions will Missouri get per QTR?

 

[trentmoney]

its really not about who scored what versus who. its more about the inevitable regression to the mean in terms of efficiency coupled with the types of opponents that await missouri. there are so many games in both college and pro football where one offense is completely dominant, moves the ball up and down the field, scores points on every possession ... and still falls right around 35-40 points. its incredibly hard to score 50 points in a football game.

i'm not concerned w/ the inevitable trend to the mean... that will happen when they score 34 at texas and 38 in a letdown game later in the year.

all i'm concerned w/ is their performance this weekend, and i don't believe this will be the time where you see that expected eventual regression

 

[Kojak]

Thanks for all the great responses. I have played to total as a large play and may end up making it my largest play this season. The more I listen to everybody's responses, the more I believe Mizzou is going to cover this game. With OU/Texas going at it this weekend, something tells me Pinkel is going to showcase his guys and not worry about score since qb's in Bradford and McCoy have national spotlight. Daniels may throw for 5+ td's and Macklin score 3+ tds in this game to offset what happens in that game. Would like to hear others thoughts on this angle

 

[pleasewin]

fuck it...im playing the under.

 

[bigwillokc]

everyone still pounding Mizz.....my book has it at 14 now

 

[echamp76]

In all reality, its going to come down to turnovers. It may be just a fun game to sit back and watch.

 

[5-0SAT]

I Don't Buy It For A Second. Mizzou Wins This Game By More Than 21 Pts. As Far As I'm Concerned Mizzou Is The Second Best Team In The Nation And You've Got To Understand That Mizzou Will Score On Every Drive And It's Going To Get Out Of Hand By The Middle Of The 2nd Quarter, Mizzou Is The Play Without A Doubt

 

[jordan17]

comon 5-0! u need to be sharp and take all those points! oki st will make this a game!

:grandmais

 

[echamp76]

I want overtime in this one!

 

[across777]

I know thats amazing.. I cant believe that stat

Some other amazing stats to go along with the fact that Mizzou hasn't had a 3 and out this year:

-Playing @ Nebraska last weekend, Mizzou committed only 1 penalty, had zero punts, allowed zero sacks, and commited zero turnovers.

-Vs Neb, the first team offense scored on 7 of 8 possesions (6 TDs, 1 FG) with the only non-score being a missed 59 yd FG as timed expired in the 1st half.

- This year, in 48 possessions with Chase Daniel at the helm (meaning not counting garbage time with backup QB), they have scored 28 TDs and 5 FGs. Of the 15 non-scores, 5 of them were otherwise successful drives that resulted in either missed FGs (2) or loss on downs in opponent territory (3). Other than that, they have had only 5 punts and 5 turnovers.

-Those 5 turnovers are the 6th lowest in the nation.

-The Tigers have not turned the ball over at all in the last 3 games. Chase Daniel has only 1 INT this year, in the first game.

-Mizzou is the least penalized team in the nation, with 3 per game.

-Missouri is 3rd the nation in total offense (568.80 ypg), they're doing it despite ranking 118th nationally in time of possession (26:07 average through 5 games). That's because Mizzou has 17 TD drives of under 2 minutes (2nd in the nation to Tulsa's 18)

-The Tigers have scored a TD on every game-opening possession in 2008


As for defense...

-Through 5 games, Mizzou ranks 15th nationally defending the run, and Mizzou has allowed just 1 rushing TD this year. Opponents are averaging just 2.7 yards per rush against the Tigers. Oklahoma State enters the game 2nd nationally in rushing (315.2 ypg). Should be the key matchup.

 

[Kojak]

Please Win....I love fact you are going to fade my over play just like in NFL this past week. BOL

Another questions to ask everybody. Assuming Mizzou win, what is the line of the Mizzou/Texas game next week? If Texas win or if Texas loses?

If Texas wins, I predict Texas -3
If Texas loses, I predict, Mizzou PK

Love to hear others thoughts.

 

[TheNoob]

As for defense...

-Through 5 games, Mizzou ranks 15th nationally defending the run, and Mizzou has allowed just 1 rushing TD this year. Opponents are averaging just 2.7 yards per rush against the Tigers. Oklahoma State enters the game 2nd nationally in rushing (315.2 ypg). Should be the key matchup.

Misleading stat here, teams have to pass to keep up, so no one tries to run.

 

[homedawg]

I got down on Mizz -13.5 on the opener. This one jumped out at me right away. just seeing how easily texas a&m was scoring on them last week made me extremely confident that Mizzou will have no problem naming the score. I also think Missouri's defense will step up to the challenge and show up for once putting to rest any doubt that this team isn't a national title contender. With that said I will more than likely try to shoot a middle and lay 60% of my wager if Ok St goes anywhere higher than 15.

 

[Xmas32]

Agree with a possible middle opportunity at 14, I don't see much, if any FGs being kicked here, though Mizzou has a great kicker in Wolfert.

 

[golfball]

This Missouri defense is much better than people are giving them credit for. Are they a great defense? NO! But, they are pretty good. They do drive me crazy watching them and their bend but don't break philosophy. They will give up some yards but not nearly as many points as they get. They are good at stopping the run. This is virtually the same defense as last year with one more year of experience. Last year the most rushing yards they gave up in a conference game was 166 against Oklahoma in the championship game. The first time they met they gave up 116 yards rushing. Last year they played Arkansas, who was arguable a better rushing team than any Big 12 team, in their bowl game. Arkansas averaged 286.5 yards rushing/game. Missouri held them to a net 164 yards on 50 attempts. That's 3.3ypr with two pro runningbacks.

I hear everyone saying that the OSU and TT offenses are about equal to Missouri. OSU and TT have very good offenses but this Missouri offense is special. When Missouri was hosting Nevada earlier this year a sideline reporter went up to one of the Nevada coaches and ask him how Missouri's offense compared to that of TT, since Nevada had already played them. The coach just chuckled and said there was no comparison. Missouris offense was head and shoulders better.

This is one of the best lines that Vegas has set in a long time. It's a no play for me. I like the over but my only concern there is if OSU can hold up their end. These are college kids so anything can happen. OSU is a very good team but Missouri is just better on both sides of the ball. If Missouri doesn't beat themselves then they will definitely win the game and should cover.