Matthew Stafford's rise; will rookie Carson Wentz build on debut?
Matthew Stafford has been viewed as a franchise quarterback since the
Detroit Lions selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009
NFL Draft, but for much of his career, turnover woes, inconsistent passing efficiency and gambling ways prevented the eighth-year pro from passing the velvet ropes into the VIP section of the elite quarterback club. After watching Stafford perform at an MVP level since the middle of the 2015 season, it might be time to grant the
Lions' QB1 a golden ticket for an elusive membership. Now, I know some will suggest that I'm a prisoner of the moment, with Stafford coming off a spectacular performance
against Indianapolis (31 of 39 passing for 340 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions) that showcased his impressive arm talent, but I believe his vastly improved football IQ, management skills and leadership ability have put him on the verge of joining the ranks of the elite.
Over the last nine games, Stafford has completed 71.1 percent of his passes, averaged 279.9 passing yards and compiled a 22:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Most impressively, he posted a 112.5 passer rating and guided the
Lions to a 7-2 record over that span. Those are remarkable numbers for any quarterback, particularly one adjusting to a new play-caller on the sideline.
That's why
Lions offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter --
promoted to the role after Joe Lombardi was fired last October -- deserves a ton of credit for helping Stafford reach his potential as a franchise quarterback, by crafting an offense that features more short and intermediate throws. In addition, the
Lions have used a "share the wealth" approach that's placed an emphasis on getting the ball into the hands of the first open receiver instead of a designated No. 1 option on the perimeter. With Calvin Johnson
no longer on the field to command double- and triple-teams, the
Lions' "small ball" attack allows Stafford to stretch the field horizontally to exploit the underneath areas of coverage.
Golden Tate has shown flashes of thriving as the focal point for the
Lions' aerial attack in the past (see:
Tate's 2014 performance when Johnson was sidelined with an injury), but he is more of a "catch-and-run" specialist than a route runner. Thus, he gets his touches on an assortment of on-the-move plays (bubble screens and crossing routes) that allow him to get the ball on the run to take advantage of his explosive skills as a former punt returner.
Marvin Jones is a polished route runner with a deceptive game that keeps defenders on their toes. He uses a handful of slick releases and stems that allow him to separate from defenders at the top of his routes.
While neither player is a superstar on Johnson's level or considered a true WR1, they are high-level WR2s capable of wreaking havoc in a system that plays to their individual and collective strengths. Not to mention, the
Lions have an athletic tight end (Eric Ebron) with the speed to cruise down the seam on vertical routes. With a deep middle threat to clear out the linebackers and safeties, Jones and Tate are free to roam underneath on a variety of inside routes (digs, curls and shallow crossers) between the numbers. In addition, the
Lions have a big-bodied chain mover (Anquan Boldin) to target on option routes or "now" screens to chew up yardage on high-completion-percentage throws.
Stafford simply needs to patiently wait for his primary targets to come open and deliver an accurate throw through a clean window. I know this sounds like Football 101, but the great quarterbacks avoid risky throws by opting for the more open receiver at every turn. This greatly reduces the chances of an interception on a tip or overthrow, which increases the team's odds of winning, due to the impact of turnover margin on outcomes in the NFL.
This brings me back to Stafford and how much he has improved as a game manager. Since his arrival in the league, the quarterback has played with a gunslinger mentality. He frequently eschewed the easy throw in favor of the high-risk, high-reward option that could result in the big play. When it worked out for Stafford, he was able to ring up fantasy football-like numbers that earned him
Pro Bowl honors. But the ball didn't always bounce his way, and his mistakes would frequently put the
Lions in the hole.
That's why the skeptics wondered if he ever would reach his potential as a franchise quarterback. He didn't appear to have the patience or awareness to dial back his game or become a singles hitter from the pocket. That's definitely changed since the middle of last season. Stafford has not only shown more restraint when it comes to "hero throws," but he has started to fall in love with the checkdown. The veteran passer has started to get the ball to his running backs in the flat or over the middle on leak-outs when his primary receiver or vertical threat is taken away by the coverage. By targeting the running back when the underneath defenders have dropped deep to take away the intermediate and deep routes, Stafford has been able to keep the
Lions in manageable situations on second and third down.
Looking at
the All-22 Coaches Film of the
Lions' past nine games, I don't think it is a coincidence that Stafford has started taking the checkdown with
Ameer Abdullah and
Theo Riddick on the field. Each player is an extraordinary weapon out of the backfield, exhibiting outstanding hands and route-running ability in space. With few linebackers possessing the quickness, agility and burst to stay with Abdullah or Riddick in space, Stafford has started to target his backs with tremendous success.
Against Indianapolis in Week 1, the
Lions relied heavily on their backs to win their individual matchups on the perimeter. According to NFL Media's research team, Stafford finished the game completing 10 out of 10 passes to Abdullah and Riddick. Those throws accounted for nearly one-third of his completions and passing yards.
Most importantly, those easy completions get the quarterback into a rhythm and increase his confidence as a playmaker from the pocket. Considering how jump shooters react when they knock down a few layups early in a game, Stafford's commitment to the checkdown makes him a more dangerous player for the
Lions.
When I think of Stafford's growth as a franchise quarterback, it reminds me a little of Brett Favre's rise right before he collected three straight MVP awards in the mid-1990s. The
Hall of Fame inductee played with a gunslinger's mentality but relied heavily on his WR1 (Sterling Sharpe) during his first few seasons in Green Bay. He would target Sharpe on nearly every play, and his tendency to lock onto his first option prevented Favre from exhausting all of the options available on each route. Although Sharpe put up ridiculous numbers (the three-time All-Pro notched back-to-back 100-catch seasons and narrowly missed making it three straight during that span) as the focal point of the passing game, the one-dimensional attack made the
Packers' offense easier to defend in the postseason. In addition, the presence of a dominant player with a strong personality made it hard for Favre to step into the leadership role.
That's why I believe Stafford's game could benefit from the loss of Calvin Johnson. Without
Megatron as the
Lions' WR1, Stafford will be forced to throw the ball to the team's other playmakers, and the diversity will make it harder to defend the team's passing game. Most importantly, Stafford will have every opportunity to fill the team's leadership void as the team captain and put his stamp on the squad as a vocal leader. Stafford gave us a glimpse of his leadership skills when
he barked at Jones for failing to get out of bounds on a catch-and-run play at the end of regulation. Some will take issue with the quarterback grandstanding a bit in an exchange with one of his receivers, but he showed outstanding situational awareness, and his ability to relay his message to Jones is a positive development for a quarterback looking to put his stamp on the team.
At a time when some evaluators suggest the NFL has a quarterback problem, Stafford's growth as a game manager, leader and playmaker should inch him closer to elite status at
the game's most important position.