I wish you all the best this season and may all your predictions come true.
I will be posting exclusively in a European Forum begining this weekend.
For some odd reason, there is a notion that it is impossible to handicap football. So I thought it would be fitting to leave you with what I do and use to handicap. It’s what I call “Predict Modeling” or (PM). I have this model running primarily on the EPL, but I do stray to other leagues from time to time.
***This is a good time to leave the thread if you don't believe in handicapping.***
The Everest we face when handicapping football is determining what data we should use to successfully improve our wagering choices in predicting the outcome of matches. I will provide you with links to the sources that I use and hopefully it can complement the current sources that you use to have a winning season.
What I have found is that most predictions are based on percentages. For example, “What is the percent likelihood that Liverpool will beat Manchester United?” Then a wager is placed on the higher likelihood. The other method is based on goals scored by a club. If one team’s average goals scored outweighs the opponents goals scored then the wager is made on the higher scoring team. These are very primitive forms of wagering but they still continue today and are what subliminally motivates a bettor to compare the lines offered by sports books to these simple evaluations.
I use a Technical Model and adapt or tweak the results with Fundamental data such as injuries, a jammed schedule, weather, problems at the club management level such as financial, news from local reporters and other non-technical variables.
For starters, as I mentioned in a prediction recently between Canada vs. Cuba that I have an associate whose brother (a Canadian Kid) works the Soccer book at Pinnacle in Turks & Cacaos. He basically said that they massage their logarithms regularly from a standard log to produce the lines we see posted. With this in mind I never look at the lines before I run the model.
I also use statistical computing software to PM, which I am constantly manipulating with data that will be revealed shortly to produce my model predictions. The FREE Open Source Software I use comes from “The R Project” (www.r-project.org). If you are not technologically savvy, I suggest you make friends with someone who is and work the code and add your own variables to create your own PM.
The main data that I capture and update in PM’ing is:
· Home Record
· Away Record
· Goals Scored
· Goals Conceded
· Goal Differential
· No Friendlies
· Where the team finished on the table last season
· Where the team is on the table this season
You may choose other variables (more or less). I suggest that you use a certain amount of seasons to train your model (I used five seasons).
Now, after the data is run through the log, I get a few results and apply the Fundamental portion to the matches to finalize the input data.
In the end, the PM spits out one of three basic results: Home, Draw or Away.
Sources of Data
http://predict.7msport.com/en/ (Ignore their predictions just use the data)
www.rsssf.com/histdom.html (Historical Results)
www.quora.com (It’s a knowledge sharing community that will help you)
***No I will not give you my program, it is proprietary***
LIVE Wagering
I see that some of you like to chase or wait to see how a match develops before making a decision and thus Live Wagering is the option for you. I don’t subscribe to this type of wagering but if you are inclined this is the information you will be interested in.
The data below is courtesy of Mr. Brocker and it may not be the solution you are looking for, however it is helpful if you are inclined to wager LIVE. I would suggest using it as a guide, but apply your own judgment of how the match is progressing to determine your final choice. I just thought it may help so I thought to include the charts.
Home & Away Winning Percentages
Below are the winning percentages for home and away clubs over the last 5 seasons. The winning rates of home clubs varies from league to league, with the overall potential for the home club to come away with a victory about 1.65 times greater than their away opponents.
Over & Under Goal Totals
The chart below shows the percentage of games that ended over 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals and 3.5 goals across the 8 leagues the last 5 seasons. We can see that both the Bundesliga and Eredivisie have seen the greater share of matches ending over 2.5 goals, with the 8 league total being just under 50% for matches ending Over 2.5 goals since 2007-2008.
Scoring
The table below offers us a range of different scoring stats. We can see the percentage of matches that saw the home club score first, the away club score first and the percentage of matches that ended in a scoreless draw. We can also see the percentage of matches in which both clubs scored as well as the percentage of matches in which the home club failed to score as well as the percentage of matches in which the away team failed to score.
Halftime-Fulltime
The table below shows the breakdown of halftime-fulltime results across the 8 leagues the last 5 seasons. It shows the percentage of matches that ended with each combination of result.
Winning Percentage When Home Team Leads At Halftime
Let's take our halftime-fulltime stats a little further. The chart below shows the winning percentages for both home and away teams when the home team was leading at halftime. As we can see, the chances of an away club coming back to win when trailing at the half have been fairly slim.
Winning Percentage When Match Is Drawn At Halftime
The table below shows the winning percentages for both home and away teams when the match is drawn at the half. Overall, the chances of the home team winning when the scores are tied at the half is about 1.50 times greater than for the away team.
Winning Percentage When Away Team Leads At Halftime
We now take a look at the winning percentages of both home and away teams when the away team leads at the half. The chances of the home club coming back to win the match are slim, although over the last 5 seasons, it has been around twice as likely as an away club coming back when trailing at the half.
Winning Percentage When Home Team Scores First
So let's take a look at the winning percentages for both home and away clubs when the home team scores first. We can see that the chanes of the away team winning when they surrender the first goal is slight. Of course, when that first goal is scored has a major impact on those chances.
Winning Percentage When Away Team Scores First
Let's conclude by taking a look at the winning percentages of both home and away teams when the away team scores first. Again, while the chances of the home club winning after giving up the first goal, they are around twice as likely to do so compared to when the away club surrenders first.
Final Thoughts
The statistical breakdowns offered in this article are indeed broad. Not every football match is alike in our expectation of results. For example, while the win rate is just under 75% for home clubs that score first in the Premier League, we should anticipate a marked difference in winning expectations for Chelsea scoring first at home to Wigan as opposed to Wigan scoring first at home to Chelsea. Similarly, at which time of the match the first goal is scored will impact such chances.
In conclusion, there is a lot of information that goes into PM’ing which includes watching, loving the game and understanding football.
To simply watch a line move or wager against the public may get you a win or two but it will defeat you in the long run. That’s not a system.... that’s guessing and hoping.
Posters like RR11, Dials, AC, Pockets, Roll and many others I do not know spend a considerable amount of time researching, watching, learning and applying their information to handicapping. It pays off in the long run.
The only thing that I do not factor into my model is match fixing. However, it is something that I am very much interested in factoring if I can embrace a real statistical number to input.
Unfortunately the soccer forum has become too Covers Like for me and the Mods have “no balls” (for lack of a better term - sorry guys nothing personal just a reflection of your inability to be proactive and reactive) I guess you have to please your advertisers.
Best of Luck and don’t forget, “The Fix is In!”
LOL
[video=youtube;BuJ8lugwiYc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BuJ8lugwiYc[/video]
!~))!
I will be posting exclusively in a European Forum begining this weekend.
For some odd reason, there is a notion that it is impossible to handicap football. So I thought it would be fitting to leave you with what I do and use to handicap. It’s what I call “Predict Modeling” or (PM). I have this model running primarily on the EPL, but I do stray to other leagues from time to time.
***This is a good time to leave the thread if you don't believe in handicapping.***
The Everest we face when handicapping football is determining what data we should use to successfully improve our wagering choices in predicting the outcome of matches. I will provide you with links to the sources that I use and hopefully it can complement the current sources that you use to have a winning season.
What I have found is that most predictions are based on percentages. For example, “What is the percent likelihood that Liverpool will beat Manchester United?” Then a wager is placed on the higher likelihood. The other method is based on goals scored by a club. If one team’s average goals scored outweighs the opponents goals scored then the wager is made on the higher scoring team. These are very primitive forms of wagering but they still continue today and are what subliminally motivates a bettor to compare the lines offered by sports books to these simple evaluations.
I use a Technical Model and adapt or tweak the results with Fundamental data such as injuries, a jammed schedule, weather, problems at the club management level such as financial, news from local reporters and other non-technical variables.
For starters, as I mentioned in a prediction recently between Canada vs. Cuba that I have an associate whose brother (a Canadian Kid) works the Soccer book at Pinnacle in Turks & Cacaos. He basically said that they massage their logarithms regularly from a standard log to produce the lines we see posted. With this in mind I never look at the lines before I run the model.
I also use statistical computing software to PM, which I am constantly manipulating with data that will be revealed shortly to produce my model predictions. The FREE Open Source Software I use comes from “The R Project” (www.r-project.org). If you are not technologically savvy, I suggest you make friends with someone who is and work the code and add your own variables to create your own PM.
The main data that I capture and update in PM’ing is:
· Home Record
· Away Record
· Goals Scored
· Goals Conceded
· Goal Differential
· No Friendlies
· Where the team finished on the table last season
· Where the team is on the table this season
You may choose other variables (more or less). I suggest that you use a certain amount of seasons to train your model (I used five seasons).
Now, after the data is run through the log, I get a few results and apply the Fundamental portion to the matches to finalize the input data.
In the end, the PM spits out one of three basic results: Home, Draw or Away.
Sources of Data
http://predict.7msport.com/en/ (Ignore their predictions just use the data)
www.rsssf.com/histdom.html (Historical Results)
www.quora.com (It’s a knowledge sharing community that will help you)
***No I will not give you my program, it is proprietary***
LIVE Wagering
I see that some of you like to chase or wait to see how a match develops before making a decision and thus Live Wagering is the option for you. I don’t subscribe to this type of wagering but if you are inclined this is the information you will be interested in.
The data below is courtesy of Mr. Brocker and it may not be the solution you are looking for, however it is helpful if you are inclined to wager LIVE. I would suggest using it as a guide, but apply your own judgment of how the match is progressing to determine your final choice. I just thought it may help so I thought to include the charts.
Home & Away Winning Percentages
Below are the winning percentages for home and away clubs over the last 5 seasons. The winning rates of home clubs varies from league to league, with the overall potential for the home club to come away with a victory about 1.65 times greater than their away opponents.
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 47.0% | 26.2% | 26.8% |
| The Championship | 43.7% | 28.7% | 27.6% |
| Primera | 49.8% | 23.1% | 27.1% |
| Serie A | 47.6% | 27.2% | 25.2% |
| Bundesliga | 45.5% | 24.9% | 29.6% |
| Ligue One | 44.4% | 29.6% | 26.0% |
| Eredivisie | 49.5% | 22.6% | 27.9% |
| SPL | 42.6% | 24.7% | 32.7% |
| TOTAL | 46.2% | 26.2% | 27.6% |
The chart below shows the percentage of games that ended over 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals and 3.5 goals across the 8 leagues the last 5 seasons. We can see that both the Bundesliga and Eredivisie have seen the greater share of matches ending over 2.5 goals, with the 8 league total being just under 50% for matches ending Over 2.5 goals since 2007-2008.
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 75.6% | 50.7% | 28.3% |
| The Championship | 73.8% | 47.4% | 26.0% |
| Primera | 75.5% | 52.0% | 29.1% |
| Serie A | 73.3% | 46.6% | 25.8% |
| Bundesliga | 78.2% | 55.4% | 32.6% |
| Ligue One | 70.4% | 42.3% | 21.6% |
| Eredivisie | 80.6% | 57.1% | 38.3% |
| SPL | 72.5% | 47.7% | 24.1% |
| TOTAL | 74.8% | 49.5% | 27.9% |
The table below offers us a range of different scoring stats. We can see the percentage of matches that saw the home club score first, the away club score first and the percentage of matches that ended in a scoreless draw. We can also see the percentage of matches in which both clubs scored as well as the percentage of matches in which the home club failed to score as well as the percentage of matches in which the away team failed to score.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 54.3% | 37.7% | 8.0% | 51.0% | 22.2% | 34.8% |
| The Championship | 51.7% | 40.2% | 8.1% | 52.6% | 22.9% | 32.5% |
| Primera | 55.8% | 37.1% | 7.1% | 51.3% | 20.9% | 35.0% |
| Serie A | 54.2% | 37.6% | 8.2% | 50.9% | 22.2% | 35.1% |
| Bundesliga | 53.8% | 39.8% | 6.4% | 55.1% | 20.3% | 31.0% |
| Ligue One | 54.5% | 35.0% | 10.5% | 48.3% | 24.1% | 38.1% |
| Eredivisie | 54.8% | 39.9% | 5.3% | 53.6% | 19.8% | 31.9% |
| SPL | 51.7% | 39.6% | 8.7% | 47.1% | 27.6% | 34.0% |
| TOTAL | 53.8% | 38.3% | 7.9% | 51.4% | 22.4% | 34.1% |
The table below shows the breakdown of halftime-fulltime results across the 8 leagues the last 5 seasons. It shows the percentage of matches that ended with each combination of result.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 29.3% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 15.5% | 16.2% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 15.7% |
| The Championship | 25.5% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 15.5% | 17.4% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 15.9% |
| Primera | 29.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 17.1% | 14.7% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 15.4% |
| Serie A | 28.3% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 16.6% | 16.3% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 12.6% |
| Bundesliga | 27.9% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 1.9% | 5.6% | 16.8% |
| Ligue One | 26.6% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 15.6% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 13.8% |
| Eredivisie | 31.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 14.5% |
| SPL | 28.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 13.2% | 16.1% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 17.6% |
| TOTAL | 28.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 15.6% | 16.1% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 15.2% |
Let's take our halftime-fulltime stats a little further. The chart below shows the winning percentages for both home and away teams when the home team was leading at halftime. As we can see, the chances of an away club coming back to win when trailing at the half have been fairly slim.
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 81.3% | 13.6% | 5.1% |
| The Championship | 77.2% | 17.3% | 5.5% |
| Primera | 83.2% | 12.1% | 4.7% |
| Serie A | 79.8% | 15.7% | 4.5% |
| Bundesliga | 79.1% | 14.6% | 6.3% |
| Ligue One | 77.6% | 16.8% | 5.6% |
| Eredivisie | 81.8% | 12.8% | 5.4% |
| SPL | 80.1% | 14.2% | 5.7% |
| TOTAL | 79.9% | 14.8% | 5.3% |
The table below shows the winning percentages for both home and away teams when the match is drawn at the half. Overall, the chances of the home team winning when the scores are tied at the half is about 1.50 times greater than for the away team.
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 37.7% | 39.5% | 22.8% |
| The Championship | 36.1% | 40.7% | 23.2% |
| Primera | 40.8% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
| Serie A | 37.9% | 37.1% | 25.0% |
| Bundesliga | 38.7% | 34.9% | 26.4% |
| Ligue One | 34.5% | 42.8% | 22.7% |
| Eredivisie | 37.3% | 33.3% | 29.4% |
| SPL | 31.2% | 37.9% | 30.9% |
| TOTAL | 36.9% | 38.1% | 25.0% |
We now take a look at the winning percentages of both home and away teams when the away team leads at the half. The chances of the home club coming back to win the match are slim, although over the last 5 seasons, it has been around twice as likely as an away club coming back when trailing at the half.
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 9.4% | 22.1% | 68.5% |
| The Championship | 11.1% | 23.0% | 65.9% |
| Primera | 13.2% | 17.9% | 68.9% |
| Serie A | 13.0% | 26.0% | 61.0% |
| Bundesliga | 7.8% | 23.1% | 69.1% |
| Ligue One | 10.7% | 21.7% | 67.6% |
| Eredivisie | 13.6% | 20.7% | 65.7% |
| SPL | 6.5% | 16.0% | 77.5% |
| TOTAL | 10.8% | 21.6% | 67.6% |
So let's take a look at the winning percentages for both home and away clubs when the home team scores first. We can see that the chanes of the away team winning when they surrender the first goal is slight. Of course, when that first goal is scored has a major impact on those chances.
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 74.8% | 17.1% | 8.1% |
| The Championship | 71.6% | 20.6% | 7.8% |
| Primera | 75.6% | 16.4% | 8.0% |
| Serie A | 76.0% | 17.1% | 6.9% |
| Bundesliga | 73.4% | 17.0% | 9.6% |
| Ligue One | 72.5% | 19.6% | 7.9% |
| Eredivisie | 74.9% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
| SPL | 72.9% | 17.1% | 10.0% |
| TOTAL | 73.9% | 17.9% | 8.2% |
Let's conclude by taking a look at the winning percentages of both home and away teams when the away team scores first. Again, while the chances of the home club winning after giving up the first goal, they are around twice as likely to do so compared to when the away club surrenders first.
|
|
|
|
| Premier League | 16.8% | 23.6% | 59.6% |
| The Championship | 16.5% | 24.9% | 58.6% |
| Primera | 20.5% | 18.2% | 61.3% |
| Serie A | 17.1% | 25.9% | 57.0% |
| Bundesliga | 15.1% | 23.3% | 61.6% |
| Ligue One | 13.9% | 24.0% | 62.1% |
| Eredivisie | 21.2% | 21.0% | 57.8% |
| SPL | 12.5% | 17.8% | 69.7% |
| TOTAL | 16.8% | 22.7% | 60.5% |
The statistical breakdowns offered in this article are indeed broad. Not every football match is alike in our expectation of results. For example, while the win rate is just under 75% for home clubs that score first in the Premier League, we should anticipate a marked difference in winning expectations for Chelsea scoring first at home to Wigan as opposed to Wigan scoring first at home to Chelsea. Similarly, at which time of the match the first goal is scored will impact such chances.
In conclusion, there is a lot of information that goes into PM’ing which includes watching, loving the game and understanding football.
To simply watch a line move or wager against the public may get you a win or two but it will defeat you in the long run. That’s not a system.... that’s guessing and hoping.
Posters like RR11, Dials, AC, Pockets, Roll and many others I do not know spend a considerable amount of time researching, watching, learning and applying their information to handicapping. It pays off in the long run.
The only thing that I do not factor into my model is match fixing. However, it is something that I am very much interested in factoring if I can embrace a real statistical number to input.
Unfortunately the soccer forum has become too Covers Like for me and the Mods have “no balls” (for lack of a better term - sorry guys nothing personal just a reflection of your inability to be proactive and reactive) I guess you have to please your advertisers.
Best of Luck and don’t forget, “The Fix is In!”
LOL[video=youtube;BuJ8lugwiYc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BuJ8lugwiYc[/video]
!~))!
