thesource says.....

[thesource]

I'm back for the playoffs...

First Game

NY at Pittsburgh -8.5

I know a lot of people are on the JETS after beating SD last week just the way I like it. I hope we see 7 by game time. That was a great win for NY last week against SD. SD has a nice little team but Pittsburgh is a different animal. Like SD, Pittsburgh plays a 3-4, but they have a lot more team speed and a tremendous pass rush(with their zone blitz schemes). With Pennington being such an accurate passer, and not having is arm strength at 100%, he will have a hard time fitting his passes in against Pittsburghs zone defense. In the earlier meeting, he was at 100% but was still picked off three times. His lack of arm strength especially throwing the out and corner routes will allow Pittsburgh to sit on the slants, ins, and post. Looking back at two other loses the JETs had against NE, I see a team defense very similar to Pitts defense. In his three loses against NE and Pitt he has 1 td and 5 ints very un-Pennington like numbers. I believe his struggles against a speedy/zone blitzing team will continue. Pittsburgh will force him to beat them by ganging up on Curtis Martin to stop the run. Another key will be the return of Plaxico and Duce. Last time they played both were injured and because of that Rothlisburger had his worst game as a starter. This time it will be different because of what Plaxico can do for the offense. His size and speed will open up the whole field for Pittsburgh this game and allow Ward and Randle El more room underneath to work. Plaxico will open up the running game because the NYJ's safeties will have to play it honest and not cheat towards the LOS, as they did in their last meeting. This will allow Staley and Bettis to run with a lot of confidence knowing they won't have to worry about the 8 man in the box. If NY tries to load up the LOS expect a huge day from Burress and Ward. I believe we will have a close game at half but by the 4th quarter Pittsburgh will be looking ahead to hosting the AFC Championship game.
The way I see it is.....Pittsburgh 27 NJY 10

will have another write up later for the NE/IND game. Last year I wrote why NE will win (because of the Ty Law factor). This year I will write why IND will win...

 

[TheGeneral+]

Good to see your analysis. Thanks

 

[thesource]

NE/Ind analysis

Last year during the playoff I wrote up why NE would beat Indy, and the number one reason why I picked NE was Ty Law. I felt he was the shut down corner you needed to take away 1/2 the field from Indy's offense. Unfortunately for Indy, they went after Law(who was matched up on Marvin Harrison), and you know the story!! The LAW won!!. This year is a different story! In the earlier matchup this year, won by NE 27-24, both Law and Poole were healthy and they were able to handle Indy. Manning was 16-29-254 2td and 1 int. which was one of his best games against NE in a long time. This was against a healthy NE defense, lead by Seymour and Ty Law. Forward to this week, first the weather this week is suppose to be mild compared to last year. Of course NE's ground keepers will not cover the field until the night before the game and they are expecting rain the next two days. This will slow the field a little, but unfortunately for NE it won't be enough. NE will move the ball against a smallish, but extremely quick Indy defense and score some points but I think Indy's offense will be to much. Why? Two important reasons...first Richard Seymour will not be 100% and more importantly Ty Law is out (as well as Poole). If both were healthy I would give NE a definant edge. Because NE would be able to zone blitz and blitz Indy more. They would be able to match Harrison, Stokely and Wayne with Law, Poole and Samuels or Gay. But with those injuries NE will have to match up with Samuel, Gay, and Moreland or Brown. Or they might move Eugene Wilson to corner from his FS position which would weaken NE deep coverage. In Indy's 3 receiver set, which I think we will see alot of, NE will try to much up with their two safeties in two deep coverage. This will open up the door for Edge to have a huge game. If NE blitzes out of this they will leave these relatively young corners against the best receiving thrio in the NFL. I know the record Manning has in NE 0-5 and against Bilichick, but like they say "all good things must come to and end". And I believe it will this week as Indy wins in NE. Indy 31 NE 28


As for any predictions in the NFC. I can't put money on two 9-8 teams nor can I put money on Philly or Atlanta. If I had to make a pick I'd take Atlanta and Minnesota (if Moss is 100% or close).


the plays....

Pittsburgh -8.5 3 units
Pittsburgh over 34 2 units

Ind 1/2 +1 3 units
Ind G +2 5 units