TheRxer's Westgate SuperContest Week 3

[Dave007inVegas]

no way, I'm not in it for chump change

either plus a bunch or out $ 350

Couldn’t agree more. You end up pocketing $850 apiece.

Chump change is right. Now if the offer were $25k I might consider inquiring further to see what % they had in mind on potential winnings.

Even if you just finish in the money (last place you’ll get $500).

All or nothing would be the way I’d go.

As they say, no balls, no air metal.

 

[Enfuego]

Great start men. Keep it up.

 

[seldomseen]

BOL! Keep up the hot start.

 

[ML Dog]

Gonna see if I can correctly predict the Top 5 SuperContest Picks this week.

Putting this here in case I am right so that there is a Record of it.

1.CAR 2.ATL 3.PIT 4.DEN 5.BUF

 

[Minura]

CAR might get over 50% of the field just based on 4-5 point line difference. I would have been tempted to switch one of my picks had I not already played the thursday night game.

 

[hehateme82]

Just luck this week fellas!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

CAR might get over 50% of the field just based on 4-5 point line difference. I would have been tempted to switch one of my picks had I not already played the thursday night game.

I like Carolina at -3, not at -4.5, & the Saints are a great play at +8.5

 

[ML Dog]

CAR might get over 50% of the field just based on 4-5 point line difference. I would have been tempted to switch one of my picks had I not already played the thursday night game.

The 2 Occasions last year when we saw Stale Lines in this neighborhood which I'll call "4 points or greater" both Stale Pick Plays lost. 0-2.

That Snow Game that got moved to DET cuz Ralph Wilson Stadium was buried under tons of snow? Jets vs. Bills then Jets + Vick get plowed? The other game involved Minnesota I believe...and possibly DET themselves....Minnesota the Stale Pick lost.

Someone, conceivably at least, fell 1 or 2 games short of cashing due to those losses or cashed a whole lot less $$$ due to those Stale Picks losing.

This has caused it to occur to me that if...within "Game Theory"...it is not better to not play such Stale Line Picks as so many will, try to match that W for them (if it comes) with a W from another game cuz if that Stale Pick loses (again) a Golden Chance for a 2 game swing on much of the field has been squandered....

I suspect we'd be surprised that Game Theory would not allow selecting such big Stale Lined Sides. Seems probable if no thing else cuz it'd demand discipline.

 

[CaptainLee]

You guys probably will be alone at the top if Carolina doesn't cover the -4.5

 

[Willie99]

week 3 card

6 Chargers +2.5 (BAS)
10 Eagles +2.5 (DT)
17 Browns -3.5 (RT)
22 Cowboys +2 (JW)
27 Dolphins -3 (99)

our only team > 500 is missing their three best offensive players from last year

classic

 

[Willie99]

thanks for all the well wishes, and may the funky fumbles bounce your way

 

[powerz]

The 2 Occasions last year when we saw Stale Lines in this neighborhood which I'll call "4 points or greater" both Stale Pick Plays lost. 0-2.

That Snow Game that got moved to DET cuz Ralph Wilson Stadium was buried under tons of snow? Jets vs. Bills then Jets + Vick get plowed? The other game involved Minnesota I believe...and possibly DET themselves....Minnesota the Stale Pick lost.

Someone, conceivably at least, fell 1 or 2 games short of cashing due to those losses or cashed a whole lot less $$$ due to those Stale Picks losing.

This has caused it to occur to me that if...within "Game Theory"...it is not better to not play such Stale Line Picks as so many will, try to match that W for them (if it comes) with a W from another game cuz if that Stale Pick loses (again) a Golden Chance for a 2 game swing on much of the field has been squandered....

I suspect we'd be surprised that Game Theory would not allow selecting such big Stale Lined Sides. Seems probable if no thing else cuz it'd demand discipline.

When the Buffalo Game got moved - BUffalo Got hammered by the Jets in Detroit
When AP got Suspended in Week 2 - Minny got Hammered by NE and NE was the most popular play on the board.
I think there are has been another time in recent history it has happened

I vowed to also bet the stale line in the contest going forward, its hard enough separating out 5 game by betting the stale line you keep pace with the majority of the group win or lose and then only have to focus on 4 games

To the Rxer's best of luck this weekend - we have similar looking cards

 

[indiana]

RX'ers...........solid looking card..............BOL and continued success.............indy

 

[ML Dog]

When the Buffalo Game got moved - BUffalo Got hammered by the Jets in Detroit
When AP got Suspended in Week 2 - Minny got Hammered by NE and NE was the most popular play on the board.
I think there are has been another time in recent history it has happened

I vowed to also bet the stale line in the contest going forward, its hard enough separating out 5 game by betting the stale line you keep pace with the majority of the group win or lose and then only have to focus on 4 games

To the Rxer's best of luck this weekend - we have similar looking cards

You got it backwards on the BUF - NYJ game, moved to DET (Monday Night Game) BUF 38 NYJ 3 and BUF literally whooped their ass up and down the field from the very first second of the game until it just wasn't interesting anymore to BUF to whoop The Jets any longer.

Score could easily have been 186 to 3. It was surprising that The Jets even got 3 really. I won't forget it cuz I fell for the Stale Line had a 4-0 week needed just Jets to cash with the 4 free points settled in with my beers and wings to enjoy The 5-0 perfect week Coronation then disaster struck.

Time and time again...disaster struck. Such are The Jets. I'm still traumatized. To this day.

2nd 4 pt. Stale Line Loser was no WAY involving NE. It did involve MIN. I suspect it was the OCT 12 2014 game vs. Detroit.

And IIRC it did revolve around AP being declared out....they must have officially suspended him that week...I think they were gonna play him but Internet Warriors weren't having any of that.

Both massively Stale Lines lost. Its different this time though. Last Year Sharp SuperContest entrants didn't mess with either one (for the most part) this year they are....some of them anyways (shockingly way more than anticipated)...are all over Carolina in this spot.

 

[TomGshotput]

This has caused it to occur to me that if...within "Game Theory"...it is not better to not play such Stale Line Picks as so many will, try to match that W for them (if it comes) with a W from another game cuz if that Stale Pick loses (again) a Golden Chance for a 2 game swing on much of the field has been squandered....

Near the very end of the contest, if you are outside the money, you pick against the favorite. If the fail to cover, you get a win and nearly everyone ahead of you gets a loss

Before that, you pick the team with the best chance to win. If Carolina has a 70% chance of covering the 4.5, not picking them means giving up nearly 0.2 wins

 

[Willie99]

week 3 card

6 Chargers +2.5 (BAS)
10 Eagles +2.5 (DT)
17 Browns -3.5 (RT)
22 Cowboys +2 (JW)
27 Dolphins -3 (99)

 

[Willie99]

JOH does amazing work in the RX Contest thread found at the top of the main forum. I'm just posting his work here too so more people can appreciate it
(and use it if they so chose)

	Week 3
	RX Contest		LVH Contest
Rot#	Team	Picked	Pct		Team	Picked	Pct
482	ARI	22	3.86%		ARI	386	4.48%
479	ATL	19	3.33%		ATL	354	4.11%
474	BAL	28	4.91%		BAL	428	4.97%
485	BUF	27	4.74%		BUF	440	5.10%
470	CAR	35	6.14%		CAR	713	8.27%
483	CHI	10	1.75%		CHI	82	0.95%
473	CIN	9	1.58%		CIN	210	2.44%
476	CLE	16	2.81%		CLE	129	1.50%
480	DAL	34	5.96%		DAL	304	3.53%
487	DEN	21	3.68%		DEN	359	4.16%
488	DET	21	3.68%		DET	242	2.81%
490	GB	15	2.63%		GB	240	2.78%
466	HOU	21	3.68%		HOU	221	2.56%
477	IND	44	7.72%		IND	637	7.39%
471	JAX	11	1.93%		JAX	123	1.43%
489	KC	8	1.40%		KC	242	2.81%
486	MIA	11	1.93%		MIA	142	1.65%
464	MIN	19	3.33%		MIN	209	2.42%
472	NE	13	2.28%		NE	164	1.90%
469	NO	5	0.88%		NO	46	0.53%
302	NYG	17	2.98%		NYG	145	1.68%
468	NYJ	18	3.16%		NYJ	279	3.24%
475	OAK	13	2.28%		OAK	222	2.58%
467	PHI	29	5.09%		PHI	369	4.28%
461	PIT	17	2.98%		PIT	439	5.09%
463	SD	18	3.16%		SD	264	3.06%
481	SF	11	1.93%		SF	233	2.70%
484	SEA	10	1.75%		SEA	264	3.06%
462	STL	31	5.44%		STL	392	4.55%
465	TB	7	1.23%		TB	149	1.73%
478	TEN	7	1.23%		TEN	105	1.22%
301	WAS	3	0.53%		WAS	88	1.02%

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Willie99]

https://www.westgatedestinations.co...s-hotel-casino/casino/supercontest-selections

westgate week 3 selections

 

[Willie99]

Carolina 713
New Orleans 46

Contest line 4.5, real line 10 (you don't see something like this very often)
--------------------------------------
Buffalo 440
Miami 142

Seattle 264
Chicago 82

Colts 637
Titans 105


looks like a ton of players think the Colts are unleashing some fury this week

 

[JOH]

I'm tracking all RX Posters in the big one. If you're not listed and want to be included, let me know...

		Thru Week 2		WEEK 3		YTD
RANK	PLAYER	W	L	P	Pts		P1	P2	P3	P4	P5		W	L	P		W	L	P	Pts		RX Posters
1T	THE RXERS	10	0	0	10		SD	PHI	CLE	DAL	MIA		0	0	0		10	0	0	10		Willie99 Betallsports Judge Wapner DT32 rolltide
35T	THE RIGHT SIDE	8	2	0	8		STL	PHI	IND	DAL	SF		0	0	0		8	2	0	8		TheRightSide
35T	THE RX NICKLE	8	2	0	8		SD	CAR	CLE	TEN	MIA		0	0	0		8	2	0	8		powerz Betallsports seldomseen drpugilist FearTheRaven
35T	JOHNNY MAC	8	2	0	8		STL	IND	DAL	DEN	GB		0	0	0		8	2	0	8		JohnnyMac
35T	CASH LTIPS	8	2	0	8		SD	PHI	CAR	IND	SEA		0	0	0		8	2	0	8		DNoonan
35T	BET ALL SPORTS	8	2	0	8		SD	IND	BUF	DEN	GB		0	0	0		8	2	0	8		Betallsports
130T	RISKYSUL	7	3	0	7		MIN	HOU	NYJ	DAL	DET		0	0	0		7	3	0	7		wizardofodd
130T	minura	7	3	0	7		NYG	STL	SD	PHI	SF		0	0	0		7	3	0	7		Minura
442T	D'TIGERS	6	4	0	6		PIT	CAR	BAL	ARI	DET		0	0	0		6	4	0	6		DNoonan

<tbody>
</tbody>