Theory Question: You have 10 picks that each have a 99% chance of winning,how to play

[Doug]

A few more conditions:

all are at -110
all have a hook
all kick -off at same time ( say CFB)
all are sides
you can only bet at say CRIS
Max win is say $100,000, you can risk whatever you want per play, but can't win over 100k.( total)
CRIS allows 10 team parlays max.

Any one with a brain knows this calls for parlays, use whatever the norm is, at CRIS

2-teams 13-5
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1 ? not sure what they pay
5 teams plus... I don't know, whatever the standard is, I don't go past 3 ever.

I'll try to fill the details later.

What would you play, and why ?

I'll give my answer later.

You can risk whatever you want, just are limited on the win. Answer should depend on your BR. I'd play it in a way that almost guarantees a huge return, with very little chance of busting, others with huge banks could grab the 100k with virtually zero chance of a bust.

 

[ElIguana]

I'd like to find 1 play that has 99% chance of winning....how can you claim to have 10?

I realize this is probably a hypothetical situation, but I can't get myself to take that leap of faith that 10 plays have a 99% chance of winning, so I can't even begin to answer your question. Sorry I can't be of more help. GL

 

[Doug]

I'd like to find 1 play that has 99% chance of winning....how can you claim to have 10?

I realize this is probably a hypothetical situation, but I can't get myself to take that leap of faith that 10 plays have a 99% chance of winning, so I can't even begin to answer your question. Sorry I can't be of more help. GL

Purely theory

use this:

1=-11-10
2 = 13-5
3 6-1
4 10-1
5 20-1
6 40-1
7 75-1
8 100-1
9 150-1
10 200-1

That's good enough.

 

[Doug]

It's a leap of faith, Iguanna...these plays are assumed to be 99% winners, I've never had a play anywhere close to a 99% er against -110.

How you would play these hypothetical 99%'ers dropped in your lap, might learn somebody something !

 

[Doug]

This question needs a Fezzik type answer, he can answer this stuff with nice analysis.

If you had big money , bet 50K on each game, no way you don't get the free 100k.

But if you only had 1-5 K , you'd play this differently to maximize the return, that's the point I try to make.

 

[WVU]

If they all had a 99% chance of winning then I would drop $500 on a 10 team parlay.

 

[Doug]

If they all had a 99% chance of winning then I would drop $500 on a 10 team parlay.

If you only had $500, why not beg, borrow, steal more ? Or at least play the 10 teamer, along with the 10 nine teamers you could make along with it, just in case one of the 99% locks did lose ?

This is the lock of your life, you have to do your best to get your share of it, I don't think the 10-teamer is the right choice given the parameters, you'd have to back it up down to one losing, IMO.

You have a $500 bankroll in your scenario, I'd try to build it, with more certainty, than you present. I don't like this answer.

 

[archimedes]

others with huge banks could grab the 100k with virtually zero chance of a bust.

I'm not an expert in combinatorics, but I don't think that that is possible.

Unless I'm extremely needy for money at the present time, I'll play the 10-teamer, $500-$100,000, cashing about 90.4% of the time.

Why don't you come out with your answer already.:howdy:

 

[Doug]

You people are seriously disappointing me ! Y'all need to be able to adapt to every scenario.... 99% ain't gonna happen, I try to make you think... get nothing better than I'll play a 10 teamer.

If I posted this at Fez site, Dreamer would analze it to levels beyond my comprehesion, Fez too. SSB guys as well

The point is parlays are correct when winning percentage is wicked high, getting back to reality 99% is ridicrulous, but even at 65% , STANDARD 3-TEAMERS AT 6-1 are justified, cap lock was accidental

 

[archimedes]

Of course 99% at -110 "ain't gonna happen," but those are the parameters that you set.

Standard 3-teamers at 6-1 being justified with 65% at -110, doesn't have any relevance to your scenario that I can see.

Let's see that answer, Pingala.:howdy:

 

[WVU]

If you only had $500, why not beg, borrow, steal more ? Or at least play the 10 teamer, along with the 10 nine teamers you could make along with it, just in case one of the 99% locks did lose ?

This is the lock of your life, you have to do your best to get your share of it, I don't think the 10-teamer is the right choice given the parameters, you'd have to back it up down to one losing, IMO.

You have a $500 bankroll in your scenario, I'd try to build it, with more certainty, than you present. I don't like this answer.

well my $500 bet at 200 to 1 would win the 100k that you have assigned as the max allowed. Pretty cut and dry here. If you really want to know the truth then I would continually pound this with as many beards as time would allow. My simple 10 teamer gives me a 90.44% chance at 100k and a 0.54% chance of losing $500 assuming no pushes. Little risk and huge reward

 

[Woody0]

Doug, I'd simply go with 10 nine team parlays leaving one of the 10 teams out of each. Each parlay has a 91.35% chance of winning. $66.66 on each parlay at 150-1 (the odds you give in #3) wins $10,000.50 which I would win if I have one loser. If they all win I get the $100,000 for my $666.60 investment.

 

[Doug]

Doug, I'd simply go with 10 nine team parlays leaving one of the 10 teams out of each. Each parlay has a 91.35% chance of winning. $66.66 on each parlay at 150-1 (the odds you give in #3) wins $10,000.50 which I would win if I have one loser. If they all win I get the $100,000 for my $666.60 investment.

Woody is very close to what my method would be, given the 100k cap, you don't even need to risk a ton, but that would be safe as hell as well ( 20k on each with CRIS).

Hard to screw it up, but I wouldn't want to lose if one of the ten failed to win.

 

[WVU]

why not only risk 500? I stand by my method. risk 500 for a 90.44% shot at 100k. Less work too

 

[D2bets]

We can risk whatever we want? Do we have to actually have the money in hand? I'd bet the max on every combination of 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 teamers. If each side has a 99% chance to win there is no chance in hell I would lose so the more wagered the better.

 

[Doug]

We can risk whatever we want? Do we have to actually have the money in hand? I'd bet the max on every combination of 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 teamers. If each side has a 99% chance to win there is no chance in hell I would lose so the more wagered the better.

Yes, money posted up first, bet all you want, but 100k cap on winnings... the rest is refunded. It's not perfect, but my rules. CRIS doesn't know these are 99% to win.

 

[trytrytry]

doug email me

 

[Doug]

done.

 

[SmallDaddy]

Round robins, rounds robins and more round robins