Their is clear cut one SB play that is better then all the rest.....

[barman]

there and than

 

[totalsquare]

anyone who lays -300 on the steelers is either a fool or too lazy to line shop. do a search at lva, all the sharps last year thought patriots ml was way off, and we know what happened.

I think the only line mistakes you're going to find is in prop bets. Imho, to think the books would make a big mistake on the line in this magnitude of a game is wrong.

 

[gijoe]

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RX Member

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: iowa
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Kurt Warner more passing yards than Big Ben. Arizona won't be able to run and Pittsburgh will run the shit out of the ball.



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This is going to be like the S.D game in which I said Parker will run the ball 30 times. The Steelers will want to keep the ball out of Warner's hands. They will run the ball on Arizona which has a worse run defense than S.D.

 

[D2bets]

Pit -2.5 -230 at 5d...

Please tell me you would not wager on that.

 

[Iceman]

A lot of bettors bet the dog on the ML also, don't they?

this is the EXACT REASON for this having value.

 

[Iceman]

Great point!!!

I remember here on the forums there was a comparison with the Pats ML and ML's during the regular season for a 13, 12 point favorite or whatever it was. And it came to fact that the Pats ML was significantly lower then regular ML's during the year at that price. And that there was value to be had.

And I layed that ML thinking value, plus no way they go 18-0 just to lose the Super Bowl, and hence, I took a fucking beating.

Plus, as I recall wasnt there a shitload on the Giants ML cuz America fell in lover with the Cinderella NYG? Perhaps thats why they set the line a tad lower for this game as well.

win or lose it was the right play. Over time this is what you do everytime when presented this situation and you will be up a lot of money.

 

[PatsFan1283]

There was a poster that said the SB ML more accurately reflected the odds to the game than the inflated spread (since most fans either bet the fav and give pts or the dog ML)

I think there may be some truth to that, ice your thoughts?

 

[Iceman]

ice mathmatically what is the better long term play

the moneyline

or taking pitt in a 6 point teaser both ways with over and under.

what do you think would be more profitable over lets say 20 plays?

I would think without a doubt the Steelers moneyline. I dont believe in teasing NFL so totals.

One way many sharps I have talked too in town are playing this is Cards +7 +100 or +7.5 -120, whichever you can find AND Steelers moneyline also.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

One way many sharps I have talked too in town are playing this is Cards +7 +100 or +7.5 -120, whichever you can find AND Steelers moneyline also.

That has Fezzik written all over it. :lol:


I will say the boy can work his SB props, likes to get in early and be creative on those ML moves as well.

 

[TomGshotput]

I would think without a doubt the Steelers moneyline. I dont believe in teasing NFL so totals.

One way many sharps I have talked too in town are playing this is Cards +7 +100 or +7.5 -120, whichever you can find AND Steelers moneyline also.

How did that work out for you last year?

 

[Fishhead]

I would think without a doubt the Steelers moneyline. I dont believe in teasing NFL so totals.

One way many sharps I have talked too in town are playing this is Cards +7 +100 or +7.5 -120, whichever you can find AND Steelers moneyline also.

Can you explain this in further detail using actual numbers?

 

[HarryCaray]

Please tell me you would not wager on that.

No I would not.

 

[rayray]

who has the best odds on Roth mvp and Warner mvp?

 

[namathfan]

SF vs San Diego Super Bowl Moneyline...

That was the year Carl Ichan wagered $2.4 million to win $300,000 (8-1) at the Mirage

I was in town for that and the very best available near gametime was 6-1

At the time, just recently out of college it was the largest bet I had ever made.....$3000 to win $500

 

[Piranha]

Sorry forgot I posted this. Now I already made it known I think the total is a off but there is a line that is clearly not right when you look at from a simple point of view and that is:



PITTSBURGH MONEYLINE at around -250 (mainly in Vegas you can find that price all over town, I just played at WSEX but its now gone). Check out every favorite that was 6.5 to 7 point favorites this year in the NFL and look at their moneyline in that game, it is always higher then this.

In fact this moneyline of -250 or so is equal to a -5.5 point favorite or so. Does anyone have a databse with this information to post the last 25 -7 point favorites in the NFL this regular season.

Two years ago when Indy was favorite by 7 over Chicago the ML was -235. That year I betted Indy on the ML and I went back on my records to verified that number.

I believe these ML's is about right for only Superbowls. Yes in the regular season the number would be higher but for SB they adjust it.

 

[Railbird]

win or lose it was the right play. Over time this is what you do everytime when presented this situation and you will be up a lot of money.

WRONG, you think you know. But you dont know.

 

[RonMexico]

That has Fezzik written all over it. :lol:


I will say the boy can work his SB props, likes to get in early and be creative on those ML moves as well.

who did he(fezzik) have last year..................everyone and ther bro who sells picks were allover the patsies........ IMO dogs are lower because they have a better chance of winning this game because of the craziness(college like atmosphere)I like AZ ML

there is not alot of value on -250 MLs see baseball favs it is only one game and there was a time the spread did not even matter........ but I dunno bout the last 5 years or so but before that is was pretty crazy favs covered or dogs won outright

 

[PowerPlayPicks]

Its Pitt -270 moneyline right now and 46 1/2. Somebody just bet the shit out of the under but I am still on the fense about the total. I expect the line to go down to about 5.5 or 6 by Gameday.

 

[Railbird]

Steelers defense good not great. Dick Lebeau very good was going vs weak qbs and coordianters. Clev,Cin twice, Balt 3 times. NFL down for the most part as a whole. Pit got lit up by marginal Colts. IF game does go under means pressure being put on Pit qb. Virtually no chance for the favorite and under to come in.

 

[Soriano12]

What are you laying, 4-1?

Actually partygaming (partybets/gamebookers) had Warner vs Roethlisberger (most passing yards) at -105 (limit 250$) and still had it at -115 (limit 265$) a few minutes ago.
Even with Warner going up against the Steelers defense, this line seems way off.