Their is clear cut one SB play that is better then all the rest.....

[BCTTWR]

Every super bowl has a skewed money line. I layed -450 on SF when they were a 16 point fav over SD. That was a safer bet than keeping money in your bank.

 

[nimue77]

Every super bowl has a skewed money line. I layed -450 on SF when they were a 16 point fav over SD. That was a safer bet than keeping money in your bank.

They were a 17 point favorite, at least that's what it opened at.

 

[Cusipz]

Everyone said NE's money line last year was free money, too.

 

[Railbird]

Line should be 3

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Line should be 3

Are you an expert in making the spread AND entertainment?

Man, you must be SOME genius! :finger:

 

[FairWarning]

1st quarter under.

 

[Rude]

Over.Game will finish in the 50's!

 

[macb]

Line should be 3

Stick to Little League Turd:finger::howdy:

 

[MONDOGECKO]

Tails never Fails. :toast:

 

[XXXylic]

Sorry forgot I posted this. Now I already made it known I think the total is a off but there is a line that is clearly not right when you look at from a simple point of view and that is:



PITTSBURGH MONEYLINE at around -250 (mainly in Vegas you can find that price all over town, I just played at WSEX but its now gone). Check out every favorite that was 6.5 to 7 point favorites this year in the NFL and look at their moneyline in that game, it is always higher then this.

In fact this moneyline of -250 or so is equal to a -5.5 point favorite or so. Does anyone have a databse with this information to post the last 25 -7 point favorites in the NFL this regular season.

I looked and almost all of them were in the -300 range and some much higher. This happens with every Super Bowl the last few years, the favorite's moneyline is too low when compared to the pointspread. Remember New England last year (unfortunately I do)? Las Vegas is really off with this, much more then offshore. Right now I am looking at Sportsoptions and they have Pittsburgh -250 at the Hilton, Cal Neva, Mirage and -245 at Southpoint, which is an even scalp with Pinny right now.

I would have to say value wise if one is looking too play this game with no opinion based strictly on value then getting a legitimate smallish 7 point favorite for -250 in the NFL is the best VALUE play in this game.

I watch ML's closely, they are my speciality.

-7 should be -300/-310 in the NFL, is definately LIGHT.

Ive already placed my bet on the cards.

Eagles fit the same scenario last week, they were -4 -175, that is atleast 25 cents light.

Week before I had a GOY on the Cardinals. Why? Because the Carolina ML was -10/-10.5 -375. Yes, -375 to -400. That is 100 cents light ATLEAST.

 

[HarryCaray]

Pit -2.5 -230 at 5d...

 

[onemwtheone]

Thought you were talking about this play ....

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[TomGshotput]

Super Bowl money line has been low for a few years now for a few reasons

Media and the league has a huge interest in making people think the game is closer to a toss-up than it really is

Fans of the two teams don't care if the final score is 7-6, 27-20 or 37-0. Last year Pat's fans could hold off their suicidal thoughts if the team lost for little money. Giants fans could party until Summer. I think Artie Lange mentioned being up something like $70k from last years playoff run (all betting against horribly bad lines with a local)

Also, people have been putting money far more money on Steelers futures than Cardinals futures. They are now looking to hedge their bets even if it means 70 cents to the dollar

 

[Akillies]

its because the fav is always overbet so they increase the spread, the moneyline is usually more accurate

 

[krk1030]

4 team teaser

Pitt +3
Zona +17
Over 37
Under 57

money in the bank

 

[FairWarning]

its because the fav is always overbet so they increase the spread, the moneyline is usually more accurate

A lot of bettors bet the dog on the ML also, don't they?

 

[Akillies]

A lot of bettors bet the dog on the ML also, don't they?

such a public game and most of them will not bet the fav on the ML, too much juice for them

 

[kahlmyishmael]

The late Huey Mahl & The late Billy "The Greek" Vassal listed the moneyline/pointspread equivalencies in their newsletter.

I think Kelso Sturgeon also posts them in his pre-season offerings

Sorry forgot I posted this. Now I already made it known I think the total is a off but there is a line that is clearly not right when you look at from a simple point of view and that is:



PITTSBURGH MONEYLINE at around -250 (mainly in Vegas you can find that price all over town, I just played at WSEX but its now gone). Check out every favorite that was 6.5 to 7 point favorites this year in the NFL and look at their moneyline in that game, it is always higher then this.

In fact this moneyline of -250 or so is equal to a -5.5 point favorite or so. Does anyone have a databse with this information to post the last 25 -7 point favorites in the NFL this regular season.

I looked and almost all of them were in the -300 range and some much higher. This happens with every Super Bowl the last few years, the favorite's moneyline is too low when compared to the pointspread. Remember New England last year (unfortunately I do)? Las Vegas is really off with this, much more then offshore. Right now I am looking at Sportsoptions and they have Pittsburgh -250 at the Hilton, Cal Neva, Mirage and -245 at Southpoint, which is an even scalp with Pinny right now.

I would have to say value wise if one is looking too play this game with no opinion based strictly on value then getting a legitimate smallish 7 point favorite for -250 in the NFL is the best VALUE play in this game.

 

[mr.hand]

Everyone said NE's money line last year was free money, too.

Great point!!!

I remember here on the forums there was a comparison with the Pats ML and ML's during the regular season for a 13, 12 point favorite or whatever it was. And it came to fact that the Pats ML was significantly lower then regular ML's during the year at that price. And that there was value to be had.

And I layed that ML thinking value, plus no way they go 18-0 just to lose the Super Bowl, and hence, I took a fucking beating.

Plus, as I recall wasnt there a shitload on the Giants ML cuz America fell in lover with the Cinderella NYG? Perhaps thats why they set the line a tad lower for this game as well.

 

[FairWarning]

such a public game and most of them will not bet the fav on the ML, too much juice for them

No, taking the dog on the ML and not bet the points. I know quite a few people who don't play during the season but play the SB.