TheCruncher's year end wrap-up, ytd.

thecruncher · Feb 7, 2005

Had a great superbowl, hitting both side and total, while picking up 5 more Units than the only play I posted, Eagles +7.5 for 2 Units. Of course, I never count unposted plays toward my forum ytd. It was a good way for my spreadsheet program to end the season, basically predicting the final score of the game, being within one point of both the side and total. I've got further tweaking to do in the offseason, to try and make it even more powerful next season. I had a great run in the playoffs, winning every week, which I think is a further testament to the strengths of a spreadsheet based handicapping system.

Enough of the fond sighs and gentle pats on the back, lol.

Year-to-Date forum posted plays.

108-77.5-3 -- +30.5 Units -- winning percentage of 58% for Units played.

Best of Luck in the offseason and light some candles for me in the Conference Finals of the "Gettin' to know ya' contest" in my matchup versus FishHead, because he is a true NBA capper, while I am not, lol.

Also, I think we all saw the strength of the forum as a whole this year. No one handicapper dominated from start to finish, while consensus picks tended to do pretty well throughout the season. Congratulations to everyone.

arty: TheCruncher

TheGeneral+ · Feb 7, 2005

Very nice numbers.

Congrats

SubwaySam · Feb 7, 2005

Congrats, Cruncher. Sounds like you've got yourself something special there.

I find your program interesting because I designed a similar program that produced almost identical results. I started creating it in November when I got tired of my mediocre results, and when I finally ironed out the bugs, it salvaged my season (9-2 in the playoffs - Sea, Pit losers - and nearly hit the Super Bowl on the nose).

Beginning with week 6 and continuing through the playoffs, the system produced a record of 105-75-5, excluding games such as Philly's last 2 reg season games and the other strange week 17 lines. I'm in the process of doing back testing against 2003 and 2002, and so far, so good.

Spent so much time on this my wife was ready to throw me out, but hoping it'll pay off next season. Unfortunately I may need to buy her some diamonds with the proceeds.

thecruncher · Feb 7, 2005

Wow, Sam, those are amazingly similar results. I take the NFL.com boxscores, and then plug the numbers into formulas I've created that generate a point spread and total for me. I also modify for strength of schedule and update for injuries and weather each week. I include a bunch of other stuff, it really is quite a complex monster I've created to really find the value in a line. Ditto with the wife, lol! I spent a lot of time on it, let alone all the poker I play! I take her out for a nice dinner every time I have a good Sunday or score a big poker win, so it keeps her happy. I'll keep an eye out for your picks and results next season, and I'm sure you'll do the same.

SubwaySam · Feb 7, 2005

Sounds like we have a similar strategy - not much of a surprise, I guess. Haven't tested it on totals yet, but it helped me nail the Pats/Steelers over. Read your selections this season and will continue to keep a lookout for you - good work.

FYI, here's what my model spat out for the playoffs (scores rounded off):
Sea 31 STL 23 (L)
SD 24 NYJ 20 (W)
IND 39 DEN 22 (W)
GB 29 MIN 29 (W)

PIT 22 NYJ 19 (W)
ATL 28 STL 17 (W)
PHI 34 MIN 17 (W)
NE 35 IND 31 (W)

PHI 31 ATL 14 (W)
NE 26 PIT 24 (L)

PHI 25 NE 23 (W)

Wife's asleep now - prime testing hours - gotta go.