Hi, all. When will all the scoring slow down? I don't know, but I cashed all 5 of my over picks last week. Rough estimate, the over has hit in 75% of games the last 2 weeks. I'd picked so many overs last week based on my number crunching and the moderate weather/wind forecasts across the entire nation. The weather looks fairly mild this upcoming weekend as well...
Falcons 24 (-3.5/-4) Falcons +3.5 value
Bucs 17 (40-41) Over + 1 value
My computer likes the Falcons, but with Griese giving them better QBing then they had their first few games, the numbers should be bumped a little in the Bucs favor.
Browns 20 (+3.5/+4.5) Browns +3 value
Steelers 21 (42) Under +1 value
Spunky home Browns are a live dog here. I don't see the over value in this game like some have been touting.
Colts 31 (-9) Texans +1 value
Texans 23 (53.5/54) Total no value
I don't see much value in this game.
Jaguars 21 (-3/-3.5) Jaguars +1 value
Lions 17 (34.5) Over +3.5 value
I'm not sure Leftwich being out will affect the Jags offense that much. Five total tds covers the over here, with mild winds forecasted.
Saints 28 (+3.5/+4.5) Saints +4.5 value
Chiefs 27 (56.5) Under +1.5 value
Priest's aren't welcome at Bourbon Street, they have to sit out. In comparison to the Chief's defense, swiss cheese has the density of gold. I wouldn't touch this under with a 10 foot, 10$ daiquiri glass. If anything, I'd take the over.
Jets 20 (+1) Jets +4 value
Ravens 17 (33.5/34) Over +3.5 value
Jets are a solid team in nearly every category, and I'm predicting a home win even without Pennington. I bought the over at 33 because, gol-dernit, that's just a low number.
Rams 24 (Pick) No value
Seahawks 24 (50/50.5) Under +2 value
Don't look, don't touch. Ram's D. has been soft. Seahawks a bit banged up in receiver depth.
Titans 20 No lines
Bears 17
Redskins 20 (-3/-3.5) Redskins +2 value
Bengals 15 (36.5) Under +1.5 value
Redskins D. and Portis on the ground win this one for the home team. Redskins have probably been this most consistent under team, the only over in the last 5 games coming via a late Packer 2-point conversion.
Cardinals 20 (+2 (Bodog +3) Cards +2 value
Giants 20 (38.5) Over +1.5 value
Will the Cards be able to take advantage of the banged up giants defense? Will the Giants take advantage of an inconsistent Cardinal defense? Which Giants team will show up? I bought the over at 38, that's all I see in this game.
Packers 25 (-4) Vikings +4 value
Vikings 25 (50) no value
For two weeks running now I like the Vikes getting better than a field goal in a game I have as a push.
49ers 20 (Pick) 49ers +1 value
Panthers 19 (41) Under +2 value
With Rattay at the helm and weak running games on both sides, I see the ball being heaved through the air quite a bit, so I won't play the under.
Patriots 23 (-7/-7.5) Bills +1.5 value
Bills 16 (37.5) Over +.67 value (had to round final score up from my actual total of 38.17)
I played the Bills at +8.
Cowboys 18 (-6/-7) Eagles +2 value
Eagles 27 (41.5/42.5) Over +3 value
Cowboys play catch-up and the total goes over.
TOP PLAYS (all lines what I bought them at)
2 team 6.5 point teaser - Vikings +10.5/Bills +14.5
Jets/Ravens Over 33
Saints +3.5 (wish I'd hit that line when it went up as high as 4.5 or possibly higher)
SECONDARY PLAYS
Jags/Lions Over 34.5
Jets +1
Redskins -3
AZ/NYG Over 38
Phi/Dallas Over 42
Eagles -6.5
GL all, have a great week.
Falcons 24 (-3.5/-4) Falcons +3.5 value
Bucs 17 (40-41) Over + 1 value
My computer likes the Falcons, but with Griese giving them better QBing then they had their first few games, the numbers should be bumped a little in the Bucs favor.
Browns 20 (+3.5/+4.5) Browns +3 value
Steelers 21 (42) Under +1 value
Spunky home Browns are a live dog here. I don't see the over value in this game like some have been touting.
Colts 31 (-9) Texans +1 value
Texans 23 (53.5/54) Total no value
I don't see much value in this game.
Jaguars 21 (-3/-3.5) Jaguars +1 value
Lions 17 (34.5) Over +3.5 value
I'm not sure Leftwich being out will affect the Jags offense that much. Five total tds covers the over here, with mild winds forecasted.
Saints 28 (+3.5/+4.5) Saints +4.5 value
Chiefs 27 (56.5) Under +1.5 value
Priest's aren't welcome at Bourbon Street, they have to sit out. In comparison to the Chief's defense, swiss cheese has the density of gold. I wouldn't touch this under with a 10 foot, 10$ daiquiri glass. If anything, I'd take the over.
Jets 20 (+1) Jets +4 value
Ravens 17 (33.5/34) Over +3.5 value
Jets are a solid team in nearly every category, and I'm predicting a home win even without Pennington. I bought the over at 33 because, gol-dernit, that's just a low number.
Rams 24 (Pick) No value
Seahawks 24 (50/50.5) Under +2 value
Don't look, don't touch. Ram's D. has been soft. Seahawks a bit banged up in receiver depth.
Titans 20 No lines
Bears 17
Redskins 20 (-3/-3.5) Redskins +2 value
Bengals 15 (36.5) Under +1.5 value
Redskins D. and Portis on the ground win this one for the home team. Redskins have probably been this most consistent under team, the only over in the last 5 games coming via a late Packer 2-point conversion.
Cardinals 20 (+2 (Bodog +3) Cards +2 value
Giants 20 (38.5) Over +1.5 value
Will the Cards be able to take advantage of the banged up giants defense? Will the Giants take advantage of an inconsistent Cardinal defense? Which Giants team will show up? I bought the over at 38, that's all I see in this game.
Packers 25 (-4) Vikings +4 value
Vikings 25 (50) no value
For two weeks running now I like the Vikes getting better than a field goal in a game I have as a push.
49ers 20 (Pick) 49ers +1 value
Panthers 19 (41) Under +2 value
With Rattay at the helm and weak running games on both sides, I see the ball being heaved through the air quite a bit, so I won't play the under.
Patriots 23 (-7/-7.5) Bills +1.5 value
Bills 16 (37.5) Over +.67 value (had to round final score up from my actual total of 38.17)
I played the Bills at +8.
Cowboys 18 (-6/-7) Eagles +2 value
Eagles 27 (41.5/42.5) Over +3 value
Cowboys play catch-up and the total goes over.
TOP PLAYS (all lines what I bought them at)
2 team 6.5 point teaser - Vikings +10.5/Bills +14.5
Jets/Ravens Over 33
Saints +3.5 (wish I'd hit that line when it went up as high as 4.5 or possibly higher)
SECONDARY PLAYS
Jags/Lions Over 34.5
Jets +1
Redskins -3
AZ/NYG Over 38
Phi/Dallas Over 42
Eagles -6.5
GL all, have a great week.
