"Dallas deserves their points - Washington less so. In that same stretch where Washington has been bottom-10 in CF% and SCF%, Dallas has been 4th and 2nd in the league, respectively. Both teams are heavy faves most nights, but in my opinion Dallas is a better team, so there isn't much value in fading them."
Both teams have about the same points and i assume most games have been with opposition in their respective conferences. So if Dallas is in the superior conference, as your initial post implies, then it seems likely they have encountered a significantly more difficult schedule. This would indicate they have been, thus far this year, the better team. Though if their schedule continues to be much more against Western conference opposition than the Caps schedule, the Caps are probably going to have easier opponents to defeat than the Stars. So, bottom line, in considering which team is the better fade, you need to look at not only how good the team is themselves, but also how good are their upcoming opponents. By your own estimation Washington is in the weaker conference, so in that regard the advantage goes to fading Dallas instead.
As for CF & SCF, these are both offensive stats. What about other offensive categories like PP efficiency, scoring ability, 4 on 4 play, shootouts, etc? What about defence in evaluating a team? That's half the game. I doubt many experts would disagree that Washington has the much superior goaltending & team defence compared to Dallas.
Are shot attempts & scoring chances the most important offensive stats? What about high quality scoring chances? When a team with rock solid defence gets a lead they can afford to sit back, trap, & allow a lot of low quality shots & scoring chances by below average scorers. Meanwhile, like soccer teams that sit back & wait for the breakout play on offense, while the other team is pressing to equalize or get back in the game, they will often get a few high or extremely high quality scoring chances, such as 3 on 2's, 2 on 1's, breakaways, & EN goals.
"Analytics doesn't predict when something will happen, or even that it will. It just makes suggestions about the future, and as such is just another tool that helps us cap. I didn't even fade Washington last night (my contest picks reflects this) because, as poorly as Washington's underlying numbers have been, Buffalo's have been worse of late. There was probably a little value on Buffalo as a big home dog, but I didn't like the spot."
Washington has Buffalo [+195 or so] again up next. Do you have any thoughts on when you might begin a fade vs Ovechkin & Co?
In the MLB forum over the years it seems IMO to be accepted that it's better to back a team that is on a hot run rather than to fade them. And to fade teams on losing runs. Maybe until they lose or win one, respectively. Or in the NBA you wouldn't have been happy fading Golden State ML after 10 or 20 games this year. Or backing the 76ers ML after 10 games when they were 0-10.
I'm not convinced an every game fade of the Caps at any price happens to be out there now, with whomsoever they happen to have in net & on the game roster for the rest of the year would be more profitable than betting a series of blacks after 20 consecutive reds on a no zero roulette table. It largely depends on the line set for each game, which can vary widely between books, and the line you can get.
Are the Caps a good fade these days? Or should they be backed? I don't know, but the OP welcomed "As always comments and criticisms" and the interesting topic intrigued as one that could be personally educational & profitable. So it would be enlightening to hear what Sherwood, Bushay, Vegas Vic & other NHL sharps think re the subject.
Both teams have about the same points and i assume most games have been with opposition in their respective conferences. So if Dallas is in the superior conference, as your initial post implies, then it seems likely they have encountered a significantly more difficult schedule. This would indicate they have been, thus far this year, the better team. Though if their schedule continues to be much more against Western conference opposition than the Caps schedule, the Caps are probably going to have easier opponents to defeat than the Stars. So, bottom line, in considering which team is the better fade, you need to look at not only how good the team is themselves, but also how good are their upcoming opponents. By your own estimation Washington is in the weaker conference, so in that regard the advantage goes to fading Dallas instead.
As for CF & SCF, these are both offensive stats. What about other offensive categories like PP efficiency, scoring ability, 4 on 4 play, shootouts, etc? What about defence in evaluating a team? That's half the game. I doubt many experts would disagree that Washington has the much superior goaltending & team defence compared to Dallas.
Are shot attempts & scoring chances the most important offensive stats? What about high quality scoring chances? When a team with rock solid defence gets a lead they can afford to sit back, trap, & allow a lot of low quality shots & scoring chances by below average scorers. Meanwhile, like soccer teams that sit back & wait for the breakout play on offense, while the other team is pressing to equalize or get back in the game, they will often get a few high or extremely high quality scoring chances, such as 3 on 2's, 2 on 1's, breakaways, & EN goals.
"Analytics doesn't predict when something will happen, or even that it will. It just makes suggestions about the future, and as such is just another tool that helps us cap. I didn't even fade Washington last night (my contest picks reflects this) because, as poorly as Washington's underlying numbers have been, Buffalo's have been worse of late. There was probably a little value on Buffalo as a big home dog, but I didn't like the spot."
Washington has Buffalo [+195 or so] again up next. Do you have any thoughts on when you might begin a fade vs Ovechkin & Co?
In the MLB forum over the years it seems IMO to be accepted that it's better to back a team that is on a hot run rather than to fade them. And to fade teams on losing runs. Maybe until they lose or win one, respectively. Or in the NBA you wouldn't have been happy fading Golden State ML after 10 or 20 games this year. Or backing the 76ers ML after 10 games when they were 0-10.
I'm not convinced an every game fade of the Caps at any price happens to be out there now, with whomsoever they happen to have in net & on the game roster for the rest of the year would be more profitable than betting a series of blacks after 20 consecutive reds on a no zero roulette table. It largely depends on the line set for each game, which can vary widely between books, and the line you can get.
Are the Caps a good fade these days? Or should they be backed? I don't know, but the OP welcomed "As always comments and criticisms" and the interesting topic intrigued as one that could be personally educational & profitable. So it would be enlightening to hear what Sherwood, Bushay, Vegas Vic & other NHL sharps think re the subject.
Although if you want to define “substantially” I might be tempted. I have to admit the lines are already getting ridiculous as evidenced by tonight’s opening line of -230 versus Buffalo. As I said in the previous post there’s no way in the world I lay that number but I’d also be cautious in taking the buy back of +205. One personal rule in sports gambling I try to stick with is never bet against a winning streak or back someone on a losing. However, once the streak breaks it's another story.
