Ok guys and gals
ONLY (5) SOLID DOUBLE RUSHERS THIS YEAR and TWO THAT ALMOST MADE THE LIST...
The FIVE SOLID DOUBLE RUSHERS THIS YEAR ARE:
AIR FORCE vs Western Michigan
OKLAHOMA vs Clemson
ARKANSAS vs Texas
LSU vs Notre Dame
STANFORD vs Maryland
Almost made the list
Louisiana Tech vs Illinois
Boston College vs Penn State
*****The game that really interests me and did before I even did my numbers is Stanford over Maryland. I know this line is up there @-14 but I feel The Maryland offense will struggle mightily vs the Stanford defense. My numbers have Stanford winning by 24+ and I love this game.
METFAN I'll release Stanford right now and hope that there will be no garbage late like in the Ohio State/Michigan game lol. Also, I can see the PAC 12 (Conan will be happy to see this lol) having a very successful bowl season. All of the teams have favorable match-ups especially Stanford but I expect them all to show well this year.
Yours in Winners
BernieV
*****Good Luck to everyone this Bowl season and let's finish the season strong
ONLY (5) SOLID DOUBLE RUSHERS THIS YEAR and TWO THAT ALMOST MADE THE LIST...
The FIVE SOLID DOUBLE RUSHERS THIS YEAR ARE:
AIR FORCE vs Western Michigan
OKLAHOMA vs Clemson
ARKANSAS vs Texas
LSU vs Notre Dame
STANFORD vs Maryland
Almost made the list
Louisiana Tech vs Illinois
Boston College vs Penn State
*****The game that really interests me and did before I even did my numbers is Stanford over Maryland. I know this line is up there @-14 but I feel The Maryland offense will struggle mightily vs the Stanford defense. My numbers have Stanford winning by 24+ and I love this game.
METFAN I'll release Stanford right now and hope that there will be no garbage late like in the Ohio State/Michigan game lol. Also, I can see the PAC 12 (Conan will be happy to see this lol) having a very successful bowl season. All of the teams have favorable match-ups especially Stanford but I expect them all to show well this year.
Yours in Winners
BernieV
*****Good Luck to everyone this Bowl season and let's finish the season strong
I am with you 100% on Stanford as that line screamed to me big time value as it should be higher. People would think they had a down season (which they did by their recent standards). However the majority of their losses could have been wins. Throw in the fact they are not the best in offense & people would think laying 2 TD's is too much. However Maryland looks real outclassed here.
For the current Bowl season due to my busy schedule I've yet to look up those teams coming off of two losses and going into a Bowl game.
I have this info in my thread.
- This bowl season gives us four teams playing off exactly 2 losses: South Alabama (playing a team off 3 Losses in a row); Penn State; Texas A&M; and Iowa
- Note Notre Dame goes bowling having lost 4 games in a row, the Miami Hurricanes 3 in a row.
I have this info in my thread.
Yes call it my payback game lol...I'm looking at 17 to 20 plays right now vs spread and O/U's...Not bad out of potentially 70+ plays, sides and totals. Like I said I believe the Pac 12 will do well. They all have favorable match-ups. I will post all my plays in here. Saturday's opening Bowl action I'll be taking a pass on and will watch BUT I see you are on Air Force big. I feel you will get your monies worth on that play as the service academies always come to play
Good Luck this Bowl Season
Yours in Winners
BernieV
***** I'm liking a number of the matchups this year. Sure is enough to choose from
Just an update
Double Rusher #1 an easy winner with The Air Force Falcons
Pac 12's first Bowl Participant the Utah Utes an easy winner
*****Remember my numbers all show the Pac 12 should have an outstanding Bowl season. They have favorable match ups in all their games. I'm liking the potential of USC, ARIZONA STATE, STANFORD, WASHINGTON and ARIZONA just for starters in their match-ups
Good Luck to All
Yours in Winners
BernieV
Ok now that we got some of the crapshoot dart throwing Bowl games out of the way( there still are about eight to ten more) it is time for BernieV to enter the Frey...
Two plays today
Arizona State minus the points
USC minus the points
Yours in Winners
BernieV
*****I'm happy I've been in this game long enough to have the discipline to sit back and wait for games I have an advantage in instead of just throwing darts or getting my nuts off in hopes that the crap of the NCAA will come through for me...Seriously
Marshall (which was the right side) talk was they weren't happy to be there but let's face it, Marshall is not a regular Bowl participant so any Bowl they'd be happy to be in...
San Diego States play/coaching made Brady Hoke look like Vince Lombardi
Western Kentucky (which was the right side for sure) has a 2nd half melt-down of monumental proportions
North Carolina everyone and their family were all over the Tar Heels and they and their defense were not on the field.
games like those above are why one treads lightly in the Bowl games and sometimes sits and watches a few
^^^^^Today we get two teams from what I'll call a power conference this year the PAC 12, ARIZONA State vs an ACC team (which we already saw was a full of shit conference with North Carolina) and USC vs a Big 10 team that struggled down the stretch after Wisky drilled them a new ass hole...
Two plays today
Arizona State minus the points
USC minus the points
Yours in Winners
BernieV
*****I'm happy I've been in this game long enough to have the discipline to sit back and wait for games I have an advantage in instead of just throwing darts or getting my nuts off in hopes that the crap of the NCAA will come through for me...Seriously
Marshall (which was the right side) talk was they weren't happy to be there but let's face it, Marshall is not a regular Bowl participant so any Bowl they'd be happy to be in...
San Diego States play/coaching made Brady Hoke look like Vince Lombardi
Western Kentucky (which was the right side for sure) has a 2nd half melt-down of monumental proportions
North Carolina everyone and their family were all over the Tar Heels and they and their defense were not on the field.
games like those above are why one treads lightly in the Bowl games and sometimes sits and watches a few
^^^^^Today we get two teams from what I'll call a power conference this year the PAC 12, ARIZONA State vs an ACC team (which we already saw was a full of shit conference with North Carolina) and USC vs a Big 10 team that struggled down the stretch after Wisky drilled them a new ass hole...
***** 10 COMMANDMENTS for BETTING BOWL GAMES*****The Ten Commandments for Betting the Bowls----by Andy Iskoe and Revised by Me...Ok Guys and Gals it's that time of year. The Bowl games and there are a few more this year then in the past. Should be a fun Bowl season and hopefully this info can help everyone make some $$$$$ either by putting you on some winners and/or keeping you off some losers.
Several millennia ago, according to theological scholars, an event took place that has shaped mankind up to this very day. It seems one of the leaders of the people in that long ago time was summoned to the summit of a mountain where he was miraculously handed some tablets from an unknown source. There was no videotaping equipment in that day, nor other technologically advanced tools, to permanently record exactly how this all occurred and what exactly was on those tablets but there have been rumors that there may have been more than one set of what have been come to be known as the Ten Commandments. Though in the minority, some scholars do suggest that there may have been another less publicized tablet that contained thoughts directed at endeavors other than spiritual. Painstaking research has been conducted over many years and we have what we now believe to be the divine words and wisdom, preserved through countless generations, directed towards college football. We present the Ten Commandments for betting and beating the College Bowls.
I. Thou shalt look to pick the straight up winner of the game.
This may seem obvious but let's examine, for a moment, why this statement is so important. It's very common for handicappers and players to become overly preoccupied with the pointspread. But how often does the line matter? Actually, the line only matters when the Favorite wins the game but fails to cover the pointspread. The line does not matter when the Favorite wins and covers and when the Underdog wins outright. Since 1991, the team that won the game also covered the pointspread 74.5% of the time. That's almost 3 games in four over more than 5,400 games. But the percentage is even higher in Bowl games. Since the 1991 season app. 600 Bowl games have been played and the line has come into play barely 14% of the time. That is, in 86% of all Bowl games played over the past twenty Bowl seasons, the winner of the game has also covered the pointspread. So your first objective is to not be obsessed by the line. Rather, look for the team you think will win the game straight up.
When playing an Underdog you should also consider the Money Line under certain conditions. Money Line wagers do not involve points but rather require your team to win the game straight up. When playing an Underdog on the Money Line you receive odds such as +140 or plus 2 to 1, etc. Here are some statistics to guide you. Double digit underdogs (those getting 10 points or more) win straight up only 25% of the time. Thus if you can get at least 3 to 1 on your double digit dog you are getting a fair shake. Keep in mind that the average line for Bowl Underdogs is roughly +6 so the number of double digit dogs is not great (about one Bowl game in six features a double digit line). Surprisingly Underdogs from + 7 to + 9 ½ win at about the same one in four rate and you occasionally will get 3-1 or better in that price range. About one Bowl in seven falls within this pointspread range. An acceptable Money Line range appears to be from + 3 ½ to + 6 ½, or greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown. Underdogs in this range win about one game in three so getting at least 2-1 on these Underdogs can provide value. About one Bowl game in three falls within this pointspread range. Finally the small underdog, up to + 3. These puppies win only about two games in five so you would need at least 3-2 (+ 150) odds to consider these small Underdogs for a money line play. It is extremely important to shop around for money lines since prices can and do vary widely, much more so than straight pointspreads.
II. Thou shalt honor the Underdog in December, but favor the Favorite in the New Year.
A common misconception amongst many handicappers is that you can profit over the long term simply by blindly playing the Underdog. After all, when you play the Underdog three things can happen and two of them are good. The Underdog can win the game outright and obviously cover the pointspread or the Underdog can lose the game straight up but by less than the pointspread. As we saw in Commandment I, this has not occurred often during the past twenty Bowl seasons. Of course the bad thing that happens is when the Underdog loses by more than the pointspread. Yet our research has uncovered a very interesting phenomenon during the past twenty seasons. Underdogs have slightly outperformed Favorites in Bowl games played in December, compiling a mark of 54% Against the Spread (ATS). That produces only a very small profit but still beats betting the Favorite. Yet once the New Year is ushered in, Favorites have been awesome. Over the past twelve seasons January Favorites have gone 64-39-3 ATS, or app.64%. Usually these games are on New Year's Day and later and feature the best teams from the regular season just completed. In years past these have been referred to as the Major Bowl games (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton and Fiesta) and the almost-major Bowls (such as the Gator and Citrus Bowls). In most cases the lines are very competitive and the teams will have generally won 8 or more games during the regular season, usually 9 or more. The teams are excited about playing on New Year's Day (or a day or two later) and are more likely to play true to form.
III. Thou shalt strongly consider Underdogs seeking redemption.
Bowl games afford a team an opportunity to share the national athletic spotlight for a few hours during the holiday season. Often, especially in the minor Bowls, football fans are tuned in to only one game. In the case of New Year's Day, the starting times of games are staggered so even then certain Bowls will have the spotlight to themselves for at least some period of time.
Teams like to make the best of their time in the spotlight - to put their best foot forward one might say. In the case of a team that lost the previous year in a Bowl game the opportunity to erase the bitter taste of a Bowl defeat that has lasted a year can be a powerful motivator for a good effort. Especially when the team seeking to reverse a defeat is made the Underdog. Historically, such teams have covered the spread at a 60% rate.
IV. Thou shalt respect the running game.(Spanky the king of double rushersshould like this one)
Despite the many changes in the game of football, the ability to control the line of scrimmage has always had a strong correlation to success both straight up and Against the Spread. Controlling the line of scrimmage is best evidenced by the ability to run the ball on offense and to stop the run on defense. Historically, teams that outrush their opponents cover the pointspread in excess of 60%. There are many reasons why such a strong correlation exists, including the obvious one that a team that has the lead is more likely to run the ball in the end stages of a game than to prolong the game by attempting passes.
There has been a tendency in recent years for Bowls to be high scoring, especially the minor Bowls. A part of the reason why this is so is because one or both teams lack a strong running game to be able to control the clock and protect leads late in games. Often that's the difference between a 9-2 record and a major Bowl bid and a 7-4 log and a minor Bowl appearance.
One indicator that has been successful over the long term has been simply average yards per rush on offense. The team having the better rushing average has covered over 55% of the time in all Bowl games dating back to the mid 1980s. In recent years the success rate has faltered a bit but it is still a good indicator of pointspread success in general, not just in Bowl games.
How important is the rushing game in Bowls? Consider that in the almost 600 Bowl games played since 1991 the team gaining more rushing yards in a Bowl game has covered at better than a 79% clip. Compare that to the 51% ATS success rate enjoyed by the team gaining more passing yards. The team that has the better average yards per rush in a Bowl game (not necessarily the same team that gains the most rushing yards) has covered at slightly under a 75% rate. That is how strong the rushing game is! However, this has seen some change over the last few years as there are more and more successful teams built around their passing game. Also, more colleges have issues defending the pass so watch this closely.
V. Thou shalt avoid the disinterested or disappointed favorite.
Not every team that goes to a Bowl is excited about the opportunity. Whereas in days gone by a trip to a Bowl game was a reward for a very successful season, times have changed. Years ago there were many less Bowl games. In order to be invited to a Bowl game a team pretty much needed to win a minimum of 7 and often 8 games. Nowadays it takes only a 6-5 record for a team to become "Bowl eligible." Mediocrity is hardly worth rewarding but with 30+ Bowl games there are now 60+ slots to fill. 45% of all Division I-A teams will be going to Bowl games this season. I Yet there are always teams that do go Bowling that may not look upon the experience as a reward and often give a very lackluster effort. Such teams, especially when favored, present outstanding opportunities to play against.One Bowl from a few years ago serves to illustrate this point very well.
CAL, undefeated for most of the season and ranked 5th in the BCS and eyeing a BCS Bowl was overlooked by the BCS and invited instead to a minor Bowl. This was clearly a snub by the BCS. Their lack of interest was obviously ignored by the bettors who drove CAL to be a heavy favorite over their Big 12 opponent Texas Tech. Their opponent Texas Tech, was happy to just be in a Bowl game and it showed. Texas Tech not only covered the generous double digits but won the game outright.
Several years ago many will recall USC was another team that was not enthused about playing in their Bowl game, even despite a two season absence from any Bowl. They were favored by 16 points over TCU, a program that had been to just two Bowl games in the past twenty years. The program was on the upswing under new coach Dennis Franchione and was excited to be in the Sun Bowl, even though it was being held in their home state. Of course, TCU pulled the upset, totally outplaying USC and winning 28-19.
The disinterested Bowl participant happens yearly and almost always these will be in the pre-January games, but every so often a New Year's Day participant might be disinterested. Looking for those disinterested teams can prove oh so profitably betting against them.
VI. Thou shalt recognize negative momentum.
Teams that go to Bowl games have generally had pretty good seasons. It can be argued that a 6-6 season is hardly 'pretty good' but such teams nevertheless are needed to fill Bowl berths. But what about teams that have ended their 'good' regular seasons on a sour note? Or two? Or more? Consider teams that have lost two or more consecutive games at the end of the regular season. Our research revealed some very interesting results that differed depending upon whether the team with that negative momentum was made the favorite or the underdog in their Bowl game.
It can be argued that a team that has lost two or more games can look at its Bowl game in one of two ways - either it's a chance to end the season on a positive note and make amends for a disappointing finish to what had been a very good season (after all, even a 6-5 team was 6-3 or better before their end of season losing streak). Or, such a team might not be interested in continuing what had been a promising season but which had turned sour down the stretch. Often such a team that is made the Underdog in this situation is a team that had overachieved during the regular season and looks upon this Bowl game as a reward and chance to show they really are an improved team. A Favorite in this spot is more apt to be a team that had higher aspirations but whose late season collapse relegated that team to a much lesser Bowl than had looked likely before the losing streak set in. The results over the past couple of decades seem to support these contentions.
Favorites entering their Bowl game off of two or more consecutive losses are a paltry 8-18 Against the Spread over the past 20+ years. That's just 30% ATS. Underdogs have fared better, although they've not excelled. Underdogs off of two or more straight losses have gone 23-18 ATS (57%) over the past 20+ years.
For the current Bowl season due to my busy schedule I've yet to look up those teams coming off of two losses and going into a Bowl game.
VII. Thou shalt honor the history of the opposing coaches
There are coaches and there are Big Game coaches and Bowl games are certainly Big Games. Coaches like Penn State's Joe Paterno, Florida State's Bobby Bowden, Wisconsin's Barry Alvarez, Alabama's Nick Saban, LSU's Les Miles, Ohio State's Urban Meyer have fashioned outstanding Bowl game records over their tenure. On the other side of the ledger Texas's coach/former North Carolina coach Mack Brown had compiled a poor Bowl record over the years. It is important to study the records of both a team and its head coach in recent Bowl appearances to perhaps uncover some edges not readily visible. Some coaches place great emphasis on winning a Bowl game once the bid is accepted. Other coaches look at a Bowl as an opportunity to prepare for next season, especially if it is a minor Bowl without any national ranking implications. Surfing the Internet during the four to five week period following the end of the regular season and the Bowl game can provide the insights into how a coach is approaching their upcoming Bowl. And don't assume that a coaching change following the end of the regular season is a negative. Recent history suggests otherwise. Often a new coach can use a Bowl game, often his first game as head coach, as a motivational and recruiting tool. What appears to be a disadvantage - a coaching staff in partial or full disarray - is often the opposite. Most coaches are aware, especially in the minor Bowls which are more spread out than the many Bowls all being played on New Year's Day, that their Bowl game is the center of attention in the athletic world for several hours. Every Bowl game is telecast on cable or network television. That's a powerful recruiting tool. But not all coaches see it that way. The preference is to look to back a team whose coach is more interested in winning THIS game than in using the game as an extra practice session for next fall.
VIII. Thou shalt consider Conference strength
Conference strength seems to go in cycles(seems all SEC lately). Pay attention to conference results in the early Bowl games as often they are accurate barometers of how the better teams will do in later Bowls. Also, make a note of strong or weak performances by a conference during the Bowls. Those results might give you an added edge next season when interconference play takes place in September.
IX. Thou shalt review games against common opponents
It's quite common for both teams in a given Bowl to have faced one or more foes during the regular season. By examining those games against a common foe, or foes, conclusions can be drawn as to whether or not the right team is favored. More than just the final score should be compared. Look closely at the rushing and passing statistics to see if one team struggled while the other team succeeded in the same aspect of the game against the same opponent.
X. Thou shalt consider experience and other intangible factors
Experience is a positive factor when handicapping the Bowls for many of the reasons previously discussed. Especially having an edge in experience over your opponent. Historically, Underdogs with more recent Bowl experience than their favored opponents have cashed at better than 60%. Experience is often related to the current strength of a program. Additionally, experienced teams are better able to handle to off-the-field activities that surround Bowl games and are more likely to be able to 'get down to business' once the practice sessions begin and the game gets underway
Yours in Winners
BernieV
Wishing Everyone a Successful Bowl Season...At least this information will help some make some educated decisions
*****Please note: This was written in 2008. I've used alot of this info provided the last few years and it has made for very successful Bowl seasons. I filled in the last four years where I could so it looks like the percentages have at least remained the same. Also, over history potential double rushers in Bowl games has been golden as it has been during the regular season. Although the offenses have changed some ( more pass happy), some things never change, if you can run the ball well along with playing some defense you'll win and we'll GET THE COVER!!!!
Well guys and gals we have come to the end of another successful Bowl season. So what else is new??? Lmao Hope everyone enjoyed The Ten Commandments for Bowl betting as they proved another profitable season. Some things just never change. There were a few brain dead individuals that criticized this saying this was written a number of years ago but oh well they paid the man. Lmao Commandments I and II continued to be $$$$$$ this year. Commandment #I Picking the winners straight up hit at an alarming rate ATS this year and Commandment #II dogs in December was GOLDEN!!!!
Add in BernieV's analysis of this years Bowls when I told you that the Pac 12 was set up to do well based on their match ups it was MONEY!!! We can't forget BernieV's Bowl Game of the Year an easy point spread winner. Hell I even said my numbers said Stanford by 24 points plus. Stanford wins by 24 lmao. Those of you that checked out MetFan's thread received four more EASY WINNERS from me on New Years Day. Four totals that easily covered the spread
So we end another season, don't you just love college football. One last game Monday night it should be exciting, THEE OHIO STATE BUCKEYES led by the master Coach Urban Meyer vs the high flying fast moving Oregon Ducks led by their Heisman Trophy QB. Will the Ohio State freshman third string QB wilt under the pressure playing for a National Championship??? Will the Oregon Ducks be able to stop the Ohio State rushing game??? Will Oregon withstand the physical pounding they'll take in this game by the Buckeyes??? Will the Oregon offensive speed be to much for the Buckeyes defense??? Will the up-tempo Oregon offense prove too much for the Ohio State defense???Will this be the year Oregon finally gets that eluded National Championships??? Stay tuned Monday night. It should be a classic...
Yours in Winners
BernieV
METFAN
I'm on THEE OHIO STATE BUCKEYES!!!....I'm on them for a number of reasons. Would I be surprised if Oregon won and covered, NO!!! lol I've been an Urban Meyer fan for sometime and I'd never bet against him or his team in a big game. He will have his team prepared. I believe Ohio State will enjoy considerable success on the ground vs the Oregon defense. I believe Ohio State's freshman QB does not act like a freshmen and had great poise vs ALABAMA that was definitely bringing it on defense to no avail...Will Ohio State be able to control the Oregon offense??? No team can control the Oregon offense but I feel they will control them enough to be in this game. Also, Ohio State should control the line of scrimmage making them successful rushing the ball..
Taking Ohio State and Coach Meyer I'll definitely get my monies worth so well worth it. I can see the loser of this game at 35pts so the over looks attractive as well. Ohio State 40+ vs Michigan State, 50+ vs Wisky, 40+vs Bama I'm sure you get my drift
Good Luck
Yours in Winners
BernieV
THANKS BERNIE
ENJOY THE GAME..I'M DONE POSTING PLAYS
Even though I won my under bet in the GBAY game yesterday, that call made me sick to my stomach..I would rather have lost..just too much refereeing to enjoy these games any more and I won and pushed instead of 2 losses..Good Luck tonight and thank you for all your posts..
ENJOY THE GAME..I'M DONE POSTING PLAYS
Even though I won my under bet in the GBAY game yesterday, that call made me sick to my stomach..I would rather have lost..just too much refereeing to enjoy these games any more and I won and pushed instead of 2 losses..Good Luck tonight and thank you for all your posts..
