The Streaks Of Sports Betting

[FANBOUTS]

Let's face it, once enough bets have been placed or picks have been made the majority of sports bettors will land between 48% - 52% winners. It may take 10,000 bets or picks but eventually that's where the meaty part of the curve will be. Even though that is the case, if we go back and look at the bettor's pick history over those ten thousand picks we'd see that they did not land at their win % by winning one and losing one, winning one and losing one. We'd see that they had5, 10, 20 pick stretches where they wen 7 - 3 or 15 - 5 or 4 - 1 and other stretches where they went 2 - 8 and 0 - 5 and 6 - 14.

Bettors go on streaks and while they're are periods of choppiness for the most part this bet segments are either under 40% or over 60% in regards to win percentage.

If you knew that there were 20 ice cold NBA bettors over their last ten games who all liked the same team, would that be telling to you. Or if thirty guys who are red hot over their last 5 all liked the other team. So if you could see where the hot and cold bettors lined up on a game would that be something you'd look at.

I have an idea for a web application and I'm curious if bettors would like to look at a consensus for sides and totals but then go deeper by sorting the bettors by their win percentage over the small bet segments of 5, 10, 20 games.

Thoughts?

 

[MAGAking1]

My top of the head hypothesis

Portion of the folks will say it doesnt matter......another portion would bet off those streaks

In the end it would still end up in your 48 to 52 range

 

[Willie99]

Interesting, would probably have some decent runs, would probably end up at 50% over time

I like to keep it simple and go with my own intuition. Serves me well. Whenever I start thinking too much, I start fucking up

 

[99steak]

Majority of the professional bettors who make a living off sports betting or make a killing are hitting 47 to 53%. These bettors don't just bet point spread. They value bet and bet wide range of bets and often odds plus odds. They are not always betting point spread and if they bet point spread. And yes, it can get streaky depending on the volume you play but you need to encompass a money management. I recommend using money management and using the spreadsheet there for your bets. They money spreadsheet already has the money management built into it, so if you simply enter the starting bankroll and the % of the bet size in the setting page, rest is automatic as you enter your bets in the log sheet.

 

[99steak]

Majority of the professional bettors who make a living off sports betting or make a killing are hitting 47 to 53%. These bettors don't just bet point spread. They value bet and bet wide range of bets and often odds plus odds. They are not always betting point spread and if they bet point spread. And yes, it can get streaky depending on the volume you play but you need to encompass a money management. I recommend using this money management and using the spreadsheet there for your bets. They money spreadsheet already has the money management built into it, so if you simply enter the starting bankroll and the % of the bet size in the setting page, rest is automatic as you enter your bets in the log sheet.

The issue is that bettors psychology will always work against him. Especially when they go on a hot streak or cold streak and won't stick to the plan. For example, if you take a look at the spreadsheet in the money management it has the logs of almost 2000 bets from 2013 and 2014. Overall hit rate is around little under 50% and push % is 2. But take a not at the average odds, its around 2.3. Now if you go to the log sheet and see all the bets, you will see some wild swings with hot and hot streaks but those who stuck to the money management religiously would over come these easily. However, if you give all these bets to some bettor, majority of them will find a way to lose and they will re-up the account multiple times. Those who stuck to the money management religiously would have grown the starting bankroll by 15 fold. That is if you start with 1k, you would be at 15k after the 2 years. Most don't have the patience or discipline to bet like this, especially if their starting bankroll is small. But if they can beat their psychology and make it work the bankroll will grow and it wont be as boring after a year once the bet size are larger to reflect the bankroll growth.

 

[FANBOUTS]

Money management is definitely the silent killer of all gamblers. Staying within your means and within your bankroll limits are difficult to do when your impulses are telling you something is a lock or a sure thing.

I think if a bunch of people on a cold streak or a hot streak pick the same game there might be something there that's catching their eye. If a bunch of cold people all see the same thing in a game would that translate to a loss more than 60% of the time? I'm curious to find out.

I'm almost done with. the software that can do this. Grade bet segments of bettors over 5, 10, or 20 games and then allow you to see where the hot/cold bettors lie on a game. If you like consensus info you'll like it cause it goes way deeper than a normal consensus. A general consensus tells you nothing about the bettors, my idea is to let the user see what kind of bettors are on each side. Aiming to launch it by July 1. Hopefully can get a few dozen people there for MLB season and then roll that into NFL.

 

[SmallDaddy]

Interesting, would probably have some decent runs, would probably end up at 50% over time

I like to keep it simple and go with my own intuition. Serves me well. Whenever I start thinking too much, I start fucking up

Yeah, dont think Willie. Its not your strong suit. (boom....)

<===

 

[99steak]

Majority of the professional bettors who make a living off sports betting or make a killing are hitting 47 to 53%. These bettors don't just bet point spread. They value bet and bet wide range of bets and often odds plus odds. They are not always betting point spread and if they bet point spread. And yes, it can get streaky depending on the volume you play but you need to encompass a money management. I recommend using money management and using the spreadsheet there for your bets. They money spreadsheet already has the money management built into it, so if you simply enter the starting bankroll and the % of the bet size in the setting page, rest is automatic as you enter your bets in the log sheet.

This is the money management, forgot to link it in the original post. i thought i linked it.

 

[FANBOUTS]

Funny how he advocates people with small bankrolls to bet more aggressive. There's a general rule that no more than 2% of the BR should be at risk on any one wager. But that's for people with a BR and a goal of making it as a pro sport bettor. For the general rec bettor I think they just bet whatever they can afford from their paycheck.

Any sports betting board I've been on, I've seen lots of streaks. Bettors run hot then they run cold or vice versa. I just feel if we can identify the hot and cold bettors, if we had a way to track what kind of streak bettors are on in their last 5, 10 or 20 picks, we'd be able to filter consensus info to show what kind of bettors lie on either side of the game for the side and total. There will be games where the. hot bettors and cold bettors are on opposite sides. I'm in test mode on the application and I am seeing it already with just 8 trail users. I can only imagine if their were 800 bettors involved. I think the rec bettor will outperform what they can do on their own using this kind of info.

 

[FANBOUTS]

Anyone who is interested in participating and entering picks so their small term streaks of hot and cold can be tracked and shared with others then check out my post in the SITE PROMOTIONS forum.