Should have played for the middle again on the CMU total! lol.
Getting a bit of luck there helps offset the probable WMU loss coming up here. Would've preferred to have WMU win to also win my NIU Under 8.5 season wins bet. Now NIU just has to win at home versus Ohio for me to lose that play. Ohio offense playing pretty well right now, though...
Getting a bit of luck there helps offset the probable WMU loss coming up here. Would've preferred to have WMU win to also win my NIU Under 8.5 season wins bet. Now NIU just has to win at home versus Ohio for me to lose that play. Ohio offense playing pretty well right now, though...
Crunch--I have a question for you. Do you know what these teams have in common: Penn State, UCLA, Louisville, UL Lafay, Navy, Missouri, Indiana, and Old Dominion?
OK, OK...I'll tell you--they are the eight plays I made before Tuesday rolled around and on everyone but ODU (where the line stayed the same) I beat the current number. In three of the cases I either got the +3 or -2' that's no longer available. None of this means any of them will win, but it's really fun looking at the "Current Bets" at Heritage and seeing what I see. Thanks!
OK, OK...I'll tell you--they are the eight plays I made before Tuesday rolled around and on everyone but ODU (where the line stayed the same) I beat the current number. In three of the cases I either got the +3 or -2' that's no longer available. None of this means any of them will win, but it's really fun looking at the "Current Bets" at Heritage and seeing what I see. Thanks!
I bet both Unders for tonight's game with the intention of middling them if possible. The ULM @ TXST original play was Under 65.5 for 0.8%, so buying back Over 59.5 (-105 5D) for .8% going for the full middle.
Original play on the ECU @ UCF was .8% on the Under 54.5. The line is 53 right now. I'd be more than happy if that line were to hit 52, but I don't think it will get there, with my line being 52.9. I'll wait and see on that one.
Original play on the ECU @ UCF was .8% on the Under 54.5. The line is 53 right now. I'd be more than happy if that line were to hit 52, but I don't think it will get there, with my line being 52.9. I'll wait and see on that one.
Doh, found a typo in my spreadsheet that made ECU's defense a little better than it really is. After fixing it my line on the game tonight is ECU -18.4 and an O/U of 54.7. So yeah, feeling lucky that I was able to get down on a good middle on that total considering that my updated total was pretty much right on the opening total of 54.5.
Meh, missed the middle by the hook on the ECU @ UCF game, but at least won some unposted ECU -23.5 live betting after UCF QB Holman went down with an injury. The ULM @ TXST game -- well that was a funny game with almost no scoring, lol. The Under on that game had okay value on the 65.5 opener, and considering I'd given it a neutral total profile (which usually indicates an average scoring game) I probably should have let that one ride -- but I did make both plays night just for the sake of trying to middle them, so mission accomplished in setting up 3 and 6 point middles, I guess.
Now that we've gotten the Thursday night garbage games out of the way we're back to some interesting football!
I had a typo in some stat info. I'd entered for the ECU vs USF game a couple of weeks ago that I only just spotted yesterday. Fixing that increases the value on USF and the Over. Fortunately someone just hit the Under this morning so the total is back to the opening 62.
Adding for 1% play -- CIN @ USF Over 62
Adding for .8% play -- USF +2 (-107 5D)
Adding for .5% play -- USF team total Over 30.5 (-110 5D)
Now that we've gotten the Thursday night garbage games out of the way we're back to some interesting football!
I had a typo in some stat info. I'd entered for the ECU vs USF game a couple of weeks ago that I only just spotted yesterday. Fixing that increases the value on USF and the Over. Fortunately someone just hit the Under this morning so the total is back to the opening 62.
Adding for 1% play -- CIN @ USF Over 62
Adding for .8% play -- USF +2 (-107 5D)
Adding for .5% play -- USF team total Over 30.5 (-110 5D)
I recommended a 2% play on Air Force +16 when the lines opened to set up a partial buy back. The line is +11 right now, so just waiting to see if +10 becomes available.
Boise hasn't been a very focused team since the loss to Utah State. They're actually a really bad run team, I rank them 110th. Their rush defense, which started off the season really strong, has been pretty average over the past month. The passing game, which the Broncos had been relying on for wins early in the year, has been pretty poor starting with the Utah State game, having its only really good against the fading UNLV defense. It just seems like Boise lost its killer instinct in that walloping that Utah State laid on them. They haven't been the same since. And now, with a third loss, I'm not sure how much they'll be up for this game, even though they're still alive for the conference championship, I believe. Air Force, for their part, have been playing extremely well since suffering a loss at CSU a month ago. Their offense is playing lights out, and their run defense has been killer. Boise's best chance for success will be through the air in this game. Based on this year's stats alone Air Force would win this game, so you might want to sprinkle a little ML on there, as they say.
Boise hasn't been a very focused team since the loss to Utah State. They're actually a really bad run team, I rank them 110th. Their rush defense, which started off the season really strong, has been pretty average over the past month. The passing game, which the Broncos had been relying on for wins early in the year, has been pretty poor starting with the Utah State game, having its only really good against the fading UNLV defense. It just seems like Boise lost its killer instinct in that walloping that Utah State laid on them. They haven't been the same since. And now, with a third loss, I'm not sure how much they'll be up for this game, even though they're still alive for the conference championship, I believe. Air Force, for their part, have been playing extremely well since suffering a loss at CSU a month ago. Their offense is playing lights out, and their run defense has been killer. Boise's best chance for success will be through the air in this game. Based on this year's stats alone Air Force would win this game, so you might want to sprinkle a little ML on there, as they say.
The secret is out on South Florida now -- they are playing extremely well. Even still there is line value on them against Cincinnati, due to the fact that the Bulls have a huge mismatch with their running game versus CIN's terrible run defense. Couple USF's strong running game with the fact that QB Flowers is now finding big play success with his receiving corps and I project USF to easily score into the 30s, making the Team Total Over 30.5 a pretty solid play. USF's pass defense has been improving, and they'll need everything they can wring out of it, as CIN has a top ten pass offense with QB Kiel back at the helm. Cincinnati shouldn't keel over in this game, but a Kiel Over play should be a solid play. Over 62 that is. Man, I just couldn't quite pull off that pun like I wanted to, lol.
Out shopping, missed the opener on TCU @ OKLA, but still loads of value.
Adding for 2% OKLA -11 vs TCU
Buying some extra to set up some middle. I know Doctson is out, and Boykin is still "?" afaik. I think it's still good value even if Boykin plays, so it's a freeroll on the line if he ends up not.
Adding for 2% OKLA -11 vs TCU
Buying some extra to set up some middle. I know Doctson is out, and Boykin is still "?" afaik. I think it's still good value even if Boykin plays, so it's a freeroll on the line if he ends up not.
