The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 08 Lines & Market Plays

[thecruncher]

Added some smaller total plays. That should be it for the week barring some line moves putting things into a playable range (and I'll still probably play MIZZ @ VAN Under at some point, too).

3 Unit:

Clem @ Miami Over 53 (bought extra to set up buy back)

2 Units

Old Dominion +14.5 @ FIU
Duke +4.5 @ VT (-115)
Toledo-9.5 @ MASS (has gone up still playable for 1.2 at a minimum)

1.2 Units

Wyoming +32 @ BSU (-115)& Wyoming+35
South Alabama +5 @ Texas State
Connecticut+13 @ CIN
UNC -14 vs UVA (-115) (changed from -12 right before I couldget it)
Nebraska-6.5 vs NW (-115)
Syracuse+6.5 vs PITT

1 Unit

Boston College +8.5 @ Louisville
UL Monroe -1.5 @ Idaho
CAL@ UCLA Over 64
Auburn @ Arkansas Over 48
Kansas @ Oklahoma StateUnder 62.5
Kentucky @ Mississippi St. Over 54
Florida St.@ Georgia Tech Over 56

.6 Unit

Maryland+8.5 vs PSU
Illinois +7 vs WIS
Mississippi-6 vs TA&M (wouldn't surprise me if it went down, though, after Ole Misslosing 2 in a row)
EMU +27.5 @ NIU
Southern Miss @ Charlotte Over 56.5
Tulane @ Navy Under 58
Toledo @ Massachusetts Over 59.5
TexasA&M @ Mississippi Over 66
FloridaAtlantic @ UTEP Under 58.5
Western Kentucky @ LSU Over65.5
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma Over 74.5
Connecticut @ Cincinnati Over 57.5
Iowa St.@ Baylor Over 81.5
Houston@ UCF Under 57

.5 Unit

Kansas+35 @ OKST
New Mexico+7.5 @ SJSU
NC St. @ Wake Forest Under 47 &Under 48.5
Virginia @ North Carolina Over 63
Utah@ USC Over 58
Tennessee @ Alabama Under 56
Penn St.@ MarylandUnder 48
Colorado @ Oregon St. Over 60

 

[thecruncher]

No action plays for me on the Tuesday night game in a rare display of discipline, lol. If the total had stayed at 62+ I prolly woulda' dropped a little action the Under, but the line and total are both super close to mine now, so no can justify. After liking a lot of plays on the Thursday and Friday night games last week I like almost nothing for those games either -- gonna' be boring until Saturday, other than enjoying the Thursday/Friday games, which will actually be some really fun/interesting match ups.

 

[tmader7]

BTW, NcSt. kills Wake this weekend. Lay all ya want, won't make a damn bit of difference.

~T~

 

[cando9]

Army +10.5 1.2 U, Mizzou -2.5 .6U, MTSU +7.5 .5U, & FAU -5.5 .5U that were adds aren't listed on the above list. Would assume they are still plays?

 

[thecruncher]

Army +10.5 1.2 U, Mizzou -2.5 .6U, MTSU +7.5 .5U, & FAU -5.5 .5U that were adds aren't listed on the above list. Would assume they are still plays?

Yes, thanks for catching that, cando.

 

[thecruncher]

BTW, NcSt. kills Wake this weekend. Lay all ya want, won't make a damn bit of difference.

~T~

Line at 10 now is right on my line, so I'll be passing. I'll root for 'ya.

 

[TUG]

I appreciate your posts SC. Your cheatsheet really helps me out. Will you have it out today or tomorrow.

TIA,

Tug

 

[thecruncher]

Sometime today, Tug.

Adding for 1 Unit: MIZZ @ VAN Under 37 (-110 5D)

 

[thecruncher]

I have a 1/2 unit on UVA @ UNC Over 63. Don't see any weather concerns. Adding another 1/2 unit on Over 61.

 

[thecruncher]

Ha, got that Vandy Under that was dummied up just in time.

 

[thecruncher]

Week #7 Results and Year to Date

Played a lot of totals on slim values based on profiles. In spite of gaining tremendous line value on most plays, just didn't run well in so many of the games, and ended up down for the week because of the high volume of totals. Many of the games had a flukey high scoring half if I had the Under, or a good half and a dead half if I liked the Over. Scaling back to the number of totals played and the amounts somewhat as well this week. Mostly sticking to line value. Top totals based on line value alone did well, as did the sides. Doing so much better at sides than totals this year, lol. Loose teaser action would have been a winner if not for the Michigan State fluke win. I had Michigan at -2 in a ties win teaser, so of course the most insane finish of the week costs me a bet, because that's how I run, lol. Still up 26 average size bets on the year after my first losing week since week 1.

 

[thecruncher]

Final look at the week 7 College Football Market Cheat Sheet. The usual market crush.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: OSU @ RUTG Over 59

Still not sure of RUTG WR Carroo's status, but good value here either way. This one just opened and is going up.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 0.6 Unit: GASO @ APP Over 59

If you throw out both of these two teams first games of the season against WVU & CLEM, respectively, they are averaging 48.5 and 44 ppg, respectively. Yes, they both possess better defenses than the teams they've racked up these points on, but at the end of the day they're still top 20 offenses, by my ratings, higher ranked than both their defenses.

 

[MoneyMiller]

gl this week cruncher, keep raking

 

[thecruncher]

The week #8 College Football Market Cheat Sheet. Available to subscribers every Sunday before the lines open offshore.

 

[indiana]

Mr./C...........this is such a great sheet............appreciate the info and time you put into this.............continued success...............indy

 

[thecruncher]

Thx, Indy.

I got a great number on the CAL @ UCLA Over 64, so I'm going to play for the middle with the 2nd half. UCLA's lead is big, they start the 2nd half with the ball, Paul Perkins is dinged up. CAL's offense not playing up to the projections right now, UCLA getting pressure on Goff's pocket.

1 Unit: CAL @ UCLA Under 34 2nd half (EV 5D) ***Middle play***

As a standalone play I think it has some value, too.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for .6 unit: WASH +17 @ STAN

 

[thecruncher]

Holy crap, instant +19, dammit, lol.