As I've stated before, I'm a long time NFL winner and have only done college foots for a few seasons, and a couple of those I either didn't start at the beginning of the season or wasn't fully prepared in week #1 to hit the ground running. That doesn't jibe with my usual tactic of setting stronger than opening line lines and then beating the market to all the fluffy softness. I did get started early with some prep this year, but I missed the true week #1 openers (of which I've seen some ridiculously soft lines I missed) as well as the best value on some season win plays. For this I am sad and it's why instead of having a very large week #1 card I have a small one of 1/2 unit bets. For all my years of beating the NFL I usually didn't even start wagering until week #4 when I had 3 prior games of stats to work with. You just don't get enough games in a season of college football to sit out a few weeks, and I haven't quite yet fully adapted to what it takes to be ready several months before the season starts, when you need to be ready. Next year I will be ready.
For as long as these numbers have been up for week #1, I didn't expect as much line movement as we've seen in the past day. A huge amount of movement, even if it were a regular week during the season. I guess the big services still don't release until closer to game time, and that they're clients are unloading their entire bankrolls on week #1 plays, slamming the lines up and down, lol.
I do have at least a couple more total plays that are now in the playable range because of the steam, but first, I'm going to make what is usually an ill-advised move, lol. I took Mississippi State at -23.5, and now the line has come down to -20. I never like being on the opposite side of a big market move -- you usually can't go wrong respecting the adjusted market lines. But sometimes in spite of that I get suckered into dropping some more on the side I like when the number passes a key number. The reasoning, of course is "Hey, now if MSST wins by just 20-23 points I'll break even instead of just losing the original play!" Of course, many times, you just end up losing 2 plays instead of 1. But since I only put a 1/2 unit down to begin with, I'll put another half unit down at -20.
For as long as these numbers have been up for week #1, I didn't expect as much line movement as we've seen in the past day. A huge amount of movement, even if it were a regular week during the season. I guess the big services still don't release until closer to game time, and that they're clients are unloading their entire bankrolls on week #1 plays, slamming the lines up and down, lol.
I do have at least a couple more total plays that are now in the playable range because of the steam, but first, I'm going to make what is usually an ill-advised move, lol. I took Mississippi State at -23.5, and now the line has come down to -20. I never like being on the opposite side of a big market move -- you usually can't go wrong respecting the adjusted market lines. But sometimes in spite of that I get suckered into dropping some more on the side I like when the number passes a key number. The reasoning, of course is "Hey, now if MSST wins by just 20-23 points I'll break even instead of just losing the original play!" Of course, many times, you just end up losing 2 plays instead of 1. But since I only put a 1/2 unit down to begin with, I'll put another half unit down at -20.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UTSA @ ARIZ Under 60.5
It usually takes two to tangle for the Over, and I just don't see San Antonio contributing enough points to make that happen. Their offense was terrible last year, and could be even worse this year with the attrition by graduation they've suffered coming into this year. They only return a couple of starters, though they do return a not nearly as bad 42% of their yards gained players. UTSA might be in damage control in this game before halftime even arrives. With a new QB in week #1 on the road versus a P5 team I envision Coker's Crew to play it fairly conservative, running as much as possible to shorten the game. Arizona leaned on the run more as the season progressed last year. In what should be a comfortable win to open the season I would expect more of the same, a heavy dose of running, especially in the 2nd half when the game will probably be out of reach. The Wildcats do play fast, but their pace did slow down later in the season with the heavier amount of running they did. There may be a lot of scoring the first half, but I'd expect it to slow down in the 2nd, and for the fourth quarter to be a run-fest with both teams just looking to end the game.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: OKST @ CMU Under 59
This game has some good angles I like to see for an Under. First - a big favorite that doesn't have an advantage with their run offense. Remember, my lines have factored in regression that includes OKST being better on run offense and CMU being weaker at run defense this year. Even still, I don't project OKST to have a particularly good game running the ball, which limits their ability to add scores in garbage time. Second - the underdog is at home. A lot of defense comes down to effort, and home teams give more effort, which helps guard against giving up cheap scores late in a game due to giving up when trailing by what seems to be an insurmountable amount. Third - CMU had one of the slowest paced offenses in the FBS last year, averaging 29.1 seconds per play. With a new, inexperienced head coach, some deliberation between plays offensively is what you'd expect, and what they're used to anyway. Fourth - both teams had defenses that outranked their offenses last year. OKST's two units ranked pretty closely, but CMU's defense ranked 31 spots higher.
It usually takes two to tangle for the Over, and I just don't see San Antonio contributing enough points to make that happen. Their offense was terrible last year, and could be even worse this year with the attrition by graduation they've suffered coming into this year. They only return a couple of starters, though they do return a not nearly as bad 42% of their yards gained players. UTSA might be in damage control in this game before halftime even arrives. With a new QB in week #1 on the road versus a P5 team I envision Coker's Crew to play it fairly conservative, running as much as possible to shorten the game. Arizona leaned on the run more as the season progressed last year. In what should be a comfortable win to open the season I would expect more of the same, a heavy dose of running, especially in the 2nd half when the game will probably be out of reach. The Wildcats do play fast, but their pace did slow down later in the season with the heavier amount of running they did. There may be a lot of scoring the first half, but I'd expect it to slow down in the 2nd, and for the fourth quarter to be a run-fest with both teams just looking to end the game.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: OKST @ CMU Under 59
This game has some good angles I like to see for an Under. First - a big favorite that doesn't have an advantage with their run offense. Remember, my lines have factored in regression that includes OKST being better on run offense and CMU being weaker at run defense this year. Even still, I don't project OKST to have a particularly good game running the ball, which limits their ability to add scores in garbage time. Second - the underdog is at home. A lot of defense comes down to effort, and home teams give more effort, which helps guard against giving up cheap scores late in a game due to giving up when trailing by what seems to be an insurmountable amount. Third - CMU had one of the slowest paced offenses in the FBS last year, averaging 29.1 seconds per play. With a new, inexperienced head coach, some deliberation between plays offensively is what you'd expect, and what they're used to anyway. Fourth - both teams had defenses that outranked their offenses last year. OKST's two units ranked pretty closely, but CMU's defense ranked 31 spots higher.
Have a happy best unofficial holiday of the year today! Today we get our first shot at cracking, if ever so slightly, that giant nut that is college football in this year of 2015 AD.
The betting lines have been almost all correcting themselves today in the direction my lines have predicted.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: OHIO -6.5 @ Idaho (-120 bought the hook)
Ohio returns even more starters than Idaho, and should dominate the line of scrimmage.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: VAN ML vs. WKU +120
Small value play on the ML here. Vandy has some injury concerns, but that's better than having a defense like WKU that makes the opponent's offense look as hard to defend as ghosts. WKU rates to be not as good this year (in spite of the loaded returning offense), while Vandy has nowhere to go but up.
The betting lines have been almost all correcting themselves today in the direction my lines have predicted.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: OHIO -6.5 @ Idaho (-120 bought the hook)
Ohio returns even more starters than Idaho, and should dominate the line of scrimmage.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: VAN ML vs. WKU +120
Small value play on the ML here. Vandy has some injury concerns, but that's better than having a defense like WKU that makes the opponent's offense look as hard to defend as ghosts. WKU rates to be not as good this year (in spite of the loaded returning offense), while Vandy has nowhere to go but up.
Released, rush man!
Looks UNC is def. gonna get theirs this game, but not sure if SCAR be able to contribute enough to get that Over. In typical luck fashion there was, of course, an INT in the end zone of the first drive of the season when I have the Over, lol. I did take some UNC live in game.
Looks UNC is def. gonna get theirs this game, but not sure if SCAR be able to contribute enough to get that Over. In typical luck fashion there was, of course, an INT in the end zone of the first drive of the season when I have the Over, lol. I did take some UNC live in game.
