Okay, time to break the write up turnover jinx here, folks, lol. I also like CAR and the Over in the other game, and have picked up 1.5 points on the total in that game getting 32.5, and 2 points on the total for the JAX/MIA game, nabbing the near opener of 31.5. As both of these games rate to be close, getting an Over that is below 33 is a nice bonus, as 33 is a fairly key number in preseason games, as a late touchdown by a team that makes the score 16-17 means they'll go for 2 leaving the final total on 33 or 35, as happened in the SF/DEN game, where all of us with the Over 34 in the game saw our sudden 50/50 chance of a cover crawl up luck's ass and die.
Jaguars @ Dolphins
There was only one major coaching change for either one of these teams during the offseason – the Jaguars brought in Mel Tucker to be defensive coordinator. Their defensive scheme will stay mostly the same, as far as I know, with head coach Del Rio being more involved on that side of the ball than he’s been in the past.
Offensively, the Jaguars hope to keep their O-line healthy this year, their main failing early last season. The Jaguars’ starting O-line will feature many new faces this season, which usually leads to early struggles. The Dolphins had great luck with their O-line health last year, not losing a body until LG Smiley broke a leg more than halfway through the regular season. Other than that, the unit was intact, and 4 of the 5 starters will be back in place this year.
I think Miami’s main objective in this game will be to give backup QB’s Henne and newly drafted White some snaps running basic plays. You know Miami will be using the versatile White in some Wildcat formations this year – I’m just not sure that Miami is interested in tipping off the rest of the league as to what these plays will be in the preseason. Mark Pennington down for two series at best tonight, as preserving his health is paramount to the success of the team. Word has it that Henne has looked really sharp in camp and that Ricky Williams is in better shape than last year – not so good for a play on the Jags, but good for the Over, lol. Pat White, on the other hand, has had a hard time going through his reads and getting rid of the ball before the 3 second sack bell is rung. Being preweek game #1, I’d expect Henne and White to play a fairly equal amount of series.
Coach Del Rio of the Jaguars is a bit of a meathead in that he likes to risk injuries to his starting QBs by playing them more series than average in the preseason. Last year Garrard got a minimum of 3 series in all 4 pre games. This goes a long way to explaining why Del Rio has the best preseason winning % of any coach that has been with his team for at least a few years, compiling a 17-7 record.
The Jaguars, like the Dolphins, don’t have much NFL experience behind their starting QBs, but they at least have one veteran, Todd Bouman, who brings his dozen years of bench riding in the NFL to the Jags this year. Todd sports 230 career pass attempts in 12 years with his now 6th different team. If he can remember which side he’s throwing to when on the field he may have a little bit of success in this contest. 3rd on the Jags depth chart is 2nd year Tulsa man Paul Smith. Neither team has a 4th QB currently, as it appears the Jags no longer have rookie Todd Boeckman on the roster. So Bouman and Smith versus Henne and White is pretty near a draw.
This game should play out, actually, to something pretty near a draw, unless the Dolphins decide to start running the new Wildcat plays they’ll use with White. The total in this game opened at 31.5 & 32. Both of these teams had below average defenses last year, while only the Dolphins had an above average offense, as injuries and poor depth at WR kept the Jag offense from being it’s usually potent running machine self.
So while neither team has enough offensive depth to turn this into an above average scoring game for preweek #1 (34-35 points), neither does either team have enough defense to turn it into a decidedly below average scoring game for preweek #1, which is where this total at 31.5 opened. I see two possible outcomes for this game. 1. The Dolphins run a vanilla offense with Henne and White, and the Jaguars win a close one. 2. The Dolphins open up the playbook and score a little more, prompting the competitive Del Rio to try and keep pace, pushing this game over the low total and still providing the Jags with a chance at covering the +3. So I’m thinking wagers on the Jags +3 and the Over 31.5 will result in a split at worst.
Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 20 – Dolphins 17
