Bengals @ Saints
Drew Brees’ mother passed away suddenly last Friday in Colorado. Monday he was back in camp, for better or worse. Grieving while preparing for the first preseason game of the year may make it hard to focus all the time, but Drew is as mentally tough as any QB out there. He’ll probably get 1 series in this game, leaving backups Brunnel and Harrington to battle for the backup role. How much the unfortunate death affects the intensity of the team heading into this game – well, it’s impossible for me to know, but I’m deducting a point from the spread from the Saints for the distraction/grieving/sympathies involved. Life is bigger than football.
With Brunnel and Harrington playing the majority of the game, the Saints will always have a quarterback in the game with good NFL experience and the ability to manage a game. Indeed, no other team has as much combined experience at the 2nd and 3rd string QB position as the Saints. They proved last year after numerous injuries to their WR and TE corps that they have pretty good depth at those positions as well. The Saints vertical attack should get a bit more horizontal once Brees leaves the game, which won’t be far into this contest. And so we reach the end of the positive things you can say about the Saints.
Their run game and defense were sub-par last year, and probably won’t be much improved this year, good intentions aside. They’ve got a new DC with Gregg Williams, but just don’t look to have the bodies or depth to take advantage of the wide assortment of defensive looks he wants to implement this year. So while the Saints will be creating a lot of confusion with their defensive formations and schemes, how much of that confusion they can shift onto their offensive opponent’s remains to be seen. The Saints were torched by big plays repeatedly last year, and should suffer a similar fate, at least early in the season.
The Bengals, in spite of suffering through a miserable 2008 campaign, have kept their coaching staff intact. Obviously, injuries on both sides of the ball shot their season down early, none so costly as losing QB Carson Palmer a few games in. Starting fresh with a mostly healthy roster (their tight ends are in bad shape right now after losing Reggie Kelly for the year and Ben Utecht getting his bell rung in a bad way), the Bengals are poised to surprise with some good covers early in the season. Well, no game is earlier than preseason week #1, and I have them covering here. Granted, things get pretty hair at QB after Carson leaves the game (he’ll play a minimum 2 series, I believe). It’s up to J.T. O’Turnover Sullivan and “Yes, I’m actually his brother” Jordan Palmer to not fudge things up too badly for the rest of the team. It will be a fun matchup to see how the Saints new defensive aggression fairs versus the extremely unpredictable O’Sullivan. There’s going to be a big play most times he drops back to pass, for one team or the other. Jordan Palmer at least has the advantage of having spent a season with the team, so he may surprise with a few well-executed plays.
Teams built on offensive finesse and timing, like the Saints, Colts (under Dungy), Cards and Eagles, all have losing preseason records with their current or most recent coaches. These teams defenses tend to mirror their offenses, being built on speed and pass defense well suited to protect the lead their potent offenses have gotten them.
Smash-mouth, physical running teams tend to fair better in the preseason, as this style of ball fairs better deeper into the roster with a perhaps more simplified run-centric playbook that is easier to execute. Teams that have traditionally favored the run, the Jaguars, Panthers and Bucs fit this description, and all have excellent preseason records under their current or most recent coaches. Now, how much of this preseason spunk is down to the coaches desire to win or the schemes built on their finesse or physical styles is open to some debate, I reckon, but scanning over the records of preseason coaches my reasoning stands up pretty well. Mike Shanahan had a stellar preseason record, and though the Broncos have traditionally been a more finesse than physical team, they’ve almost always had an excellent run game. Belichick has a winning preseason record as well, but Bill is Bill, the best coach in the league, and he’s been able to compliment Brady’s terrific passing attack with a good run game and a physical defense for the most part.
To be fair, Sean Payton’s preseason record isn’t far on the losing side at 6-7, and Marvin Lewis’ preseason record for the Bengals is 12-12. But that really kind of sums it up – the Bengals are a little bit more physical and this game that will see very little of Drew Brees is really up for grabs, meaning there’s great value on the Bengals getting 3 points.
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 20 – Saints 17
Drew Brees’ mother passed away suddenly last Friday in Colorado. Monday he was back in camp, for better or worse. Grieving while preparing for the first preseason game of the year may make it hard to focus all the time, but Drew is as mentally tough as any QB out there. He’ll probably get 1 series in this game, leaving backups Brunnel and Harrington to battle for the backup role. How much the unfortunate death affects the intensity of the team heading into this game – well, it’s impossible for me to know, but I’m deducting a point from the spread from the Saints for the distraction/grieving/sympathies involved. Life is bigger than football.
With Brunnel and Harrington playing the majority of the game, the Saints will always have a quarterback in the game with good NFL experience and the ability to manage a game. Indeed, no other team has as much combined experience at the 2nd and 3rd string QB position as the Saints. They proved last year after numerous injuries to their WR and TE corps that they have pretty good depth at those positions as well. The Saints vertical attack should get a bit more horizontal once Brees leaves the game, which won’t be far into this contest. And so we reach the end of the positive things you can say about the Saints.
Their run game and defense were sub-par last year, and probably won’t be much improved this year, good intentions aside. They’ve got a new DC with Gregg Williams, but just don’t look to have the bodies or depth to take advantage of the wide assortment of defensive looks he wants to implement this year. So while the Saints will be creating a lot of confusion with their defensive formations and schemes, how much of that confusion they can shift onto their offensive opponent’s remains to be seen. The Saints were torched by big plays repeatedly last year, and should suffer a similar fate, at least early in the season.
The Bengals, in spite of suffering through a miserable 2008 campaign, have kept their coaching staff intact. Obviously, injuries on both sides of the ball shot their season down early, none so costly as losing QB Carson Palmer a few games in. Starting fresh with a mostly healthy roster (their tight ends are in bad shape right now after losing Reggie Kelly for the year and Ben Utecht getting his bell rung in a bad way), the Bengals are poised to surprise with some good covers early in the season. Well, no game is earlier than preseason week #1, and I have them covering here. Granted, things get pretty hair at QB after Carson leaves the game (he’ll play a minimum 2 series, I believe). It’s up to J.T. O’Turnover Sullivan and “Yes, I’m actually his brother” Jordan Palmer to not fudge things up too badly for the rest of the team. It will be a fun matchup to see how the Saints new defensive aggression fairs versus the extremely unpredictable O’Sullivan. There’s going to be a big play most times he drops back to pass, for one team or the other. Jordan Palmer at least has the advantage of having spent a season with the team, so he may surprise with a few well-executed plays.
Teams built on offensive finesse and timing, like the Saints, Colts (under Dungy), Cards and Eagles, all have losing preseason records with their current or most recent coaches. These teams defenses tend to mirror their offenses, being built on speed and pass defense well suited to protect the lead their potent offenses have gotten them.
Smash-mouth, physical running teams tend to fair better in the preseason, as this style of ball fairs better deeper into the roster with a perhaps more simplified run-centric playbook that is easier to execute. Teams that have traditionally favored the run, the Jaguars, Panthers and Bucs fit this description, and all have excellent preseason records under their current or most recent coaches. Now, how much of this preseason spunk is down to the coaches desire to win or the schemes built on their finesse or physical styles is open to some debate, I reckon, but scanning over the records of preseason coaches my reasoning stands up pretty well. Mike Shanahan had a stellar preseason record, and though the Broncos have traditionally been a more finesse than physical team, they’ve almost always had an excellent run game. Belichick has a winning preseason record as well, but Bill is Bill, the best coach in the league, and he’s been able to compliment Brady’s terrific passing attack with a good run game and a physical defense for the most part.
To be fair, Sean Payton’s preseason record isn’t far on the losing side at 6-7, and Marvin Lewis’ preseason record for the Bengals is 12-12. But that really kind of sums it up – the Bengals are a little bit more physical and this game that will see very little of Drew Brees is really up for grabs, meaning there’s great value on the Bengals getting 3 points.
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 20 – Saints 17
Well, after hitting both side and total in the two earlier games today I guess I couldn't stave off bad luck forever this season, lol. Curse of the write up! The Bengals outgain the Saints in yards but lose the turnover battle. Looks like Orton's turnovers are going to make it 2 down in a row, lol.
Bears @ Bills
The Bills now have one preseason game under their belts, so they’re heading into their 2nd preweek #1 game, as the 2 teams that play in the Hall of Fame game play in 5 preseason games, instead of the usual 4. In the HOF game, Edwards to TO was good for 2 quick receptions, and Edwards was looking fairly sharp until an interception derailed his first drive. Overall, the Buffalo passing game looked pretty good while running the no-huddle offense for the entire game. Edwards went 3 for 4 with the pick, playing only one series. Next in was Fitzpatrick who went 6 for 11 with no picks or tds. Preseason pro Hamdan went a very impressive 11 for 13 with no picks or tds. Rookie Baker went 2 for 4 with a pick ending Buffalo’s final drive of the game. While Buffalo was able to move the ball pretty well through the air in the middle of the field, they didn’t run the ball very well and were unable to score any offensive touchdowns. Edwards will probably be bumped up to starting 2 series in this game.
The Jay Cutler era in Chicago gets underway with this game. He’s purportedly got a very good grasp of the offense already and should see 2 or 3 series in this game, I think. Behind Cutler the Bears have only the inexperienced Hanie and Basanez, a good reason to give Cutler the 2 or 3 series here.
While the Bills didn’t run the ball effectively in the HOF game, the Titans ran it even worse, though they did have several obvious running downs in the 2nd half of the game which hurt their averages. The Titans best 2 quarterbacks (Collins and Ramsey) went a combined 15 for 20, so the Bills’ pass defense didn’t have a great day.
The Bears will be featuring the same 4-man front, Tampa-2ish defense they’ve had for a while. While another team in their division, the Packers, made an offseason switch to the more in vogue 3-4 line, the Bears remain unswayed. Perhaps they should have considered it, considering that their linebacking corps is the strength of their defense with Urlacher, Briggs and now Roach, and also their deepest. These guys defend the pass pretty well, too. But no, the Bears will stick with their 4 defensive lineman, hoping that they can eat up enough offensive lineman for the linebackers to make plays. Early in the season, however, dipping into your freezer for the vanilla left over from last year means everybody will feel at home from the get go – at least for guys that have been around for a year. Also, as teams generally don’t get blitz-crazy in the preseason as a gentleman’s agreement between coaches, the Bears won’t have to think too hard about which non-lineman to bring on passing plays, as I’m pretty sure they don’t incorporate much zone-blitzing into their defense.
I think the Bears with Cutler at the helm will get out of the gate faster than the Bills, and will actually have the halftime lead. The Bills’ backup QBs will outperform the Bears’ in the second half, but the endzone will be an elusive target for them once again, with the Bears hanging on for the narrow upset. I do like the Under in this game, but with totals this low, it only takes a couple of big defensive or special teams plays to send the game Over the total. The Bills no-huddle more up-tempo offense is another thorn in the side of the Under. I wouldn’t be that surprised if there are no offensive touchdowns after the first quarter of this game, and am willing to put minimum plays on both the Bears and the Under here.
Final Score Prediction: Bears 14 – Bills 13
The Bills now have one preseason game under their belts, so they’re heading into their 2nd preweek #1 game, as the 2 teams that play in the Hall of Fame game play in 5 preseason games, instead of the usual 4. In the HOF game, Edwards to TO was good for 2 quick receptions, and Edwards was looking fairly sharp until an interception derailed his first drive. Overall, the Buffalo passing game looked pretty good while running the no-huddle offense for the entire game. Edwards went 3 for 4 with the pick, playing only one series. Next in was Fitzpatrick who went 6 for 11 with no picks or tds. Preseason pro Hamdan went a very impressive 11 for 13 with no picks or tds. Rookie Baker went 2 for 4 with a pick ending Buffalo’s final drive of the game. While Buffalo was able to move the ball pretty well through the air in the middle of the field, they didn’t run the ball very well and were unable to score any offensive touchdowns. Edwards will probably be bumped up to starting 2 series in this game.
The Jay Cutler era in Chicago gets underway with this game. He’s purportedly got a very good grasp of the offense already and should see 2 or 3 series in this game, I think. Behind Cutler the Bears have only the inexperienced Hanie and Basanez, a good reason to give Cutler the 2 or 3 series here.
While the Bills didn’t run the ball effectively in the HOF game, the Titans ran it even worse, though they did have several obvious running downs in the 2nd half of the game which hurt their averages. The Titans best 2 quarterbacks (Collins and Ramsey) went a combined 15 for 20, so the Bills’ pass defense didn’t have a great day.
The Bears will be featuring the same 4-man front, Tampa-2ish defense they’ve had for a while. While another team in their division, the Packers, made an offseason switch to the more in vogue 3-4 line, the Bears remain unswayed. Perhaps they should have considered it, considering that their linebacking corps is the strength of their defense with Urlacher, Briggs and now Roach, and also their deepest. These guys defend the pass pretty well, too. But no, the Bears will stick with their 4 defensive lineman, hoping that they can eat up enough offensive lineman for the linebackers to make plays. Early in the season, however, dipping into your freezer for the vanilla left over from last year means everybody will feel at home from the get go – at least for guys that have been around for a year. Also, as teams generally don’t get blitz-crazy in the preseason as a gentleman’s agreement between coaches, the Bears won’t have to think too hard about which non-lineman to bring on passing plays, as I’m pretty sure they don’t incorporate much zone-blitzing into their defense.
I think the Bears with Cutler at the helm will get out of the gate faster than the Bills, and will actually have the halftime lead. The Bills’ backup QBs will outperform the Bears’ in the second half, but the endzone will be an elusive target for them once again, with the Bears hanging on for the narrow upset. I do like the Under in this game, but with totals this low, it only takes a couple of big defensive or special teams plays to send the game Over the total. The Bills no-huddle more up-tempo offense is another thorn in the side of the Under. I wouldn’t be that surprised if there are no offensive touchdowns after the first quarter of this game, and am willing to put minimum plays on both the Bears and the Under here.
Final Score Prediction: Bears 14 – Bills 13
Wrote this 4-5 days ago, I still like the Browns SU and the Under
Browns @ Packers
There’s really only one story of significance for the Packers heading into this season, and that’s the hiring of Dom Capers as defensive coordinator, and his switching of the Packer’s defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Sackmeister Aaron Kampman will be moved to linebacker, giving him more flexibility in ways to attack the quarterback. Historically, average defenses that have switched schemes have struggled early in the season but then improved to finish up rated a little bit higher than the previous year.
The Browns, on the other hand, hit control/alt/delete on their coaching staff after a poor year and have brought in Mangini, freshly released from the Jets, to take a turn at the helm in Cleveland. He brought OC Brian Daboll with him, and added DC Rob Ryan, lately of the Raiders. A new head coach usually means a little extra push to win early, so a slight advantage to the Browns in that regard.
At quarterback, the Packers have nobody with NFL experience behind Aaron Rodgers, which doesn’t bode well for a week #1 game where the starting QB typically plays 2 series of less. The Browns, of course, have what is probably the most well known QB battle in the league with Quinn and Anderson vying for the starting job. The most recent camp reports have Quinn doing a better job, though Anderson has been getting more of the first team offensive work. To complicate matters, Mangini also brought over backup QB Ratliff from the Jets, a guy who has looked good in camps and preseason action in his short time in the league. All signs point to the Browns having a sizable advantage at the QB position once Mr. Rodgers joins his first string neighbors on the bench.
The points are a gift, as the new head coach with his trio of dueling quarterbacks should win this road game straight up. The Browns +3 at normal juice was available across the board earlier, but as of this writing is heavily slanted to the Browns, as it looks like most of the money coming in can see the obvious reasons to like the Brownies here.
This is my highest rated play of preweek #1 at 1.5 units. I like the Under 34.5 in this contest as well for a more modest 2/3 units.
Final Score Prediction: Browns 17 – Packers 14
Browns @ Packers
There’s really only one story of significance for the Packers heading into this season, and that’s the hiring of Dom Capers as defensive coordinator, and his switching of the Packer’s defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Sackmeister Aaron Kampman will be moved to linebacker, giving him more flexibility in ways to attack the quarterback. Historically, average defenses that have switched schemes have struggled early in the season but then improved to finish up rated a little bit higher than the previous year.
The Browns, on the other hand, hit control/alt/delete on their coaching staff after a poor year and have brought in Mangini, freshly released from the Jets, to take a turn at the helm in Cleveland. He brought OC Brian Daboll with him, and added DC Rob Ryan, lately of the Raiders. A new head coach usually means a little extra push to win early, so a slight advantage to the Browns in that regard.
At quarterback, the Packers have nobody with NFL experience behind Aaron Rodgers, which doesn’t bode well for a week #1 game where the starting QB typically plays 2 series of less. The Browns, of course, have what is probably the most well known QB battle in the league with Quinn and Anderson vying for the starting job. The most recent camp reports have Quinn doing a better job, though Anderson has been getting more of the first team offensive work. To complicate matters, Mangini also brought over backup QB Ratliff from the Jets, a guy who has looked good in camps and preseason action in his short time in the league. All signs point to the Browns having a sizable advantage at the QB position once Mr. Rodgers joins his first string neighbors on the bench.
The points are a gift, as the new head coach with his trio of dueling quarterbacks should win this road game straight up. The Browns +3 at normal juice was available across the board earlier, but as of this writing is heavily slanted to the Browns, as it looks like most of the money coming in can see the obvious reasons to like the Brownies here.
This is my highest rated play of preweek #1 at 1.5 units. I like the Under 34.5 in this contest as well for a more modest 2/3 units.
Final Score Prediction: Browns 17 – Packers 14
Wrote this 4-5 days ago, before the Over skyrocketed above 37. I’d pass on the Over but still like the Chiefs a little bit here.
Texans & Chiefs
The Todd Haley (head coach)/Scott Pioli (GM) era in Kansas City begins with this home game. Advantage KC with a new coach trying to steer the team in a new, winning direction. The Chief’s don’t even have to learn a new offense as offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was retained. Probably a good move. It was the Chief’s defense that let the team down last year, not the offense – hence a new defensive coordinator, Clancy Pendergast, who coached with Haley in Arizona last year.
The Chiefs do have a new quarterback to install in the old offense, Matt Cassel, but in preweek #1 he’ll play 25% of the game at best. The good news for Chiefs backers is that the 2nd and 3rd string quarterback positions are manned by two players who played a lot of ball during the regular season for the Chiefs last year, Brodie Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen. While neither one of these gentleman sport great QB ratings, they have the advantage of familiarity with the system over the 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks of the Texans, Grossman and Orlovsky, who were both made Texans during the offseason. Heck, neither one of them has a very good QB rating either. What may be a small advantage for the Texans is that they have no 4th string QB on the roster currently, while the Chiefs have Ingle Martin. If Martin sees playing time, it will most likely be in preweeks #1 and #4.
The Texans have one new coach of significance this season, hiring Frank Bush as defensive coordinator. For those keeping score, that means that both teams will be running familiar offenses with all quarterbacks down to 3rd position on the depth charts having regular season experience, versus two new defensive coordinators/schemes. Both teams had far superior offenses than defenses last year, so defensive depth is not one thing you’re likely to see on either one of these rosters. The Texans will be without CB Jacques Reeves, out with a broken leg, and CB Dunta Robinson hasn’t been in camp yet because of a contract dispute. The Texans were just now forced to bring in old hand Deltha O’Neal to play a little corner while hearts and legs are healing. If this were a regular season game, you’d see the total nearing 50 between these two offensively top-heavy teams.
For all the reasons listed in the above paragraph I like the total to go Over the currently available 35. I also like the team with the rookie head coach, the Chiefs, to win and cover the spread.
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 21 – Texans 16
Texans & Chiefs
The Todd Haley (head coach)/Scott Pioli (GM) era in Kansas City begins with this home game. Advantage KC with a new coach trying to steer the team in a new, winning direction. The Chief’s don’t even have to learn a new offense as offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was retained. Probably a good move. It was the Chief’s defense that let the team down last year, not the offense – hence a new defensive coordinator, Clancy Pendergast, who coached with Haley in Arizona last year.
The Chiefs do have a new quarterback to install in the old offense, Matt Cassel, but in preweek #1 he’ll play 25% of the game at best. The good news for Chiefs backers is that the 2nd and 3rd string quarterback positions are manned by two players who played a lot of ball during the regular season for the Chiefs last year, Brodie Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen. While neither one of these gentleman sport great QB ratings, they have the advantage of familiarity with the system over the 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks of the Texans, Grossman and Orlovsky, who were both made Texans during the offseason. Heck, neither one of them has a very good QB rating either. What may be a small advantage for the Texans is that they have no 4th string QB on the roster currently, while the Chiefs have Ingle Martin. If Martin sees playing time, it will most likely be in preweeks #1 and #4.
The Texans have one new coach of significance this season, hiring Frank Bush as defensive coordinator. For those keeping score, that means that both teams will be running familiar offenses with all quarterbacks down to 3rd position on the depth charts having regular season experience, versus two new defensive coordinators/schemes. Both teams had far superior offenses than defenses last year, so defensive depth is not one thing you’re likely to see on either one of these rosters. The Texans will be without CB Jacques Reeves, out with a broken leg, and CB Dunta Robinson hasn’t been in camp yet because of a contract dispute. The Texans were just now forced to bring in old hand Deltha O’Neal to play a little corner while hearts and legs are healing. If this were a regular season game, you’d see the total nearing 50 between these two offensively top-heavy teams.
For all the reasons listed in the above paragraph I like the total to go Over the currently available 35. I also like the team with the rookie head coach, the Chiefs, to win and cover the spread.
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 21 – Texans 16
The Packers' running game crushed, they were very impressive. If you would have told me that the Packers' QBs would only pass for 68 yards and score 3 points after Rodgers left the game I would've been pleased as spiked punch with my Browns' play. But that was not enough, as the Browns capacity for suck was even worse, lol.
For the dear readers who happened to notice I had a bad Saturday, lol:
I tend to only post write ups for my plays that are going to go horribly wrong. Did I have Seattle and Atlanta today? Yes. Write ups? No, lol. Minus 8 turnover ratio combined on the 4 write up games. 2 of the 4 teams outgained their opponents and still lost by 10 each. Last regular season for all the games the average was 14.8 yards of offense per point scored. For the four write ups? 1102 yards of offense for 37 points scored, an average of 29.8 yards per offensive point scored, almost exactly half the amount of points that will normally be scored for the yards. The two teams that gained the least amount of yards...the two teams I also bet the Under on (split after Buffalo gets two TD drives starting at the Chicago 5). Do these stretches of bad luck happen? Yes. Should I have won all 4 games? No. CHI and CLE didn't deserve to win, CIN did, and KC it could've gone either way. So I get to look like an ass on this fine Saturday because of the write up jinx, lol.
I tend to only post write ups for my plays that are going to go horribly wrong. Did I have Seattle and Atlanta today? Yes. Write ups? No, lol. Minus 8 turnover ratio combined on the 4 write up games. 2 of the 4 teams outgained their opponents and still lost by 10 each. Last regular season for all the games the average was 14.8 yards of offense per point scored. For the four write ups? 1102 yards of offense for 37 points scored, an average of 29.8 yards per offensive point scored, almost exactly half the amount of points that will normally be scored for the yards. The two teams that gained the least amount of yards...the two teams I also bet the Under on (split after Buffalo gets two TD drives starting at the Chicago 5). Do these stretches of bad luck happen? Yes. Should I have won all 4 games? No. CHI and CLE didn't deserve to win, CIN did, and KC it could've gone either way. So I get to look like an ass on this fine Saturday because of the write up jinx, lol.
