THE SHRINK and myself both agree on a side LARGE

RobFunk · Oct 25, 2004

suppan was pitching well before he came to the sox, thats why we traded for him. he cant pitch against good line ups. youll see what i mean. he isnt doing anything now that he hasnt done before. he barely beat houston and got touched against the braves and the giants this year.

suppan is only effective pitching vs. a line up with 3 or more holes

wilheim · Oct 25, 2004

suppan is only effective pitching vs. a line up with 3 or more holes

Now he is faced with a "Juggernaut" what shot does the guy have?

wil.:neenee:

Fishhead · Oct 25, 2004

wilheim said:
Now he is faced with a "Juggernaut" what shot does the guy have?

wil.:neenee:

......yeah right.

A team that hit .264 on the road.............WITH A DH.

THE SHRINK · Oct 25, 2004

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="98%" bgColor=#999999 border=0><TBODY><TR align=left><TD class=gradbluemlb colSpan=19>Last 7 | Season </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#efefe7><TD class=smtext>Date</TD><TD class=smtext>Opp</TD><TD class=smtext align=middle>S/R</TD><TD class=smtext align=middle>Res</TD><TD class=smtext align=middle>Scr</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>Line</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>W/L</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>IP</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>H</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>R</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>ER</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>SO</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>BB</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>HR</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>PIT</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>P/IP</TD><TD class=smtext align=right>G/F</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4>10/20/2004</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>@ NYY </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>R </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>10-3 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>148/10</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>W/O</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>1.0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>3</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>2</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>2 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>20 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>20.0 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>1.00</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4>10/18/2004</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>NYY </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>S </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>ND</TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>5-4 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>-147/9.5</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>W/U</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>6.0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>7</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>4</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>4 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>6</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>5</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>111 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>18.5 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0.71</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4>10/13/2004</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>@ NYY </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>S </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>L</TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1-3 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>-153/9.5</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>L/U</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>6.0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>4</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>3</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>3 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>7</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>4</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>113 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>18.8 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0.83</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4>10/6/2004</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>@ ANA </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>S </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>W</TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>8-3 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>-127/9</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>W/O</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>7.0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>6</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>3</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>3 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>6</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>2</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>116 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>16.6 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0.63</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4>9/29/2004</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>@ TB </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>S </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>L</TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>4-9 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>-320/9</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>L/O</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>5.0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>10</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>6</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>5 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>5</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>109 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>21.8 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0.43</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4>9/24/2004</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>NYY </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>S </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>L</TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>4-6 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>-155/9</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>L/O</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>7.1</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>9</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>5</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>5 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>5</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>2</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>117 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>16.0 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>1.83</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4>9/19/2004</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>@ NYY </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>S </TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>L</TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1-11 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>-145/8.5</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>L/O</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>5.0</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>8</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>8</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>8 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>4</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>3</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>3</TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>92 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>18.4 </TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff>0.83</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4></TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4></TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=text bgColor=#ecece4></TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TD class=text align=right bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Robfunk,

These are Pedro's numbers for his last 7 outings and not the last game, although that was the ONLY time he allowed less than 3 runs..
They don't look anything like the Pedro of old....

Note how many WINS you see here...

THE SHRINK

RobFunk · Oct 25, 2004

wheres OF when you need him i know hes in stealth reading this thread and quietly agreeing with me

TheGeneral+ · Oct 25, 2004

Appears Pedro is due.

Hmmmm

wilheim · Oct 25, 2004

Rob

Explain to Fishky why the Sox are a jugernaut please.

Thanks, wil.

THE SHRINK · Oct 25, 2004

General,

The "DUE" word can also be said of the Cards, but I happen to think that "D" word gets lots of gamblers in trouble...

You "D"ummy, lol...

Ken

D2bets · Oct 25, 2004

Are you kidding me??? Cards -120 is the long-awaited breath-holding play??? Am I the only one who thinks maybe they like the Sox and they're trying to draw $$$ on the Cards to bring the line down? Jeff Suppan is horseshit. -120 is square city. Gimme Boston parlayed to the over for +345, thank you. Suppan will get obliterated.

Mr.Smith · Oct 25, 2004

Shrink,

You and Fishead have good points to favor STL. So I have not been arguing things like STL is great at home and their too good to get swept and Bos loses DH.

But your overestimating the decline of Pedro. 5 of those last 7 starts were against the Yankees. Pedro has seen enough of that team, they have his number.

He is going to come out very strong this game with the extra rest and a chance to stick a huge spike in the coffin with a win here.

Fishhead · Oct 25, 2004

Pedro could throw a 2-hitter and still lose.

Boston may score 10 runs and still lose.

They are a huge favorite to lose this game in one way or another.

Fishhead · Oct 25, 2004

The more i think about this, the more depressed I am getting.

The RED SOX are a huge underdog to win this game.

Mr.Smith · Oct 25, 2004

STL batters vs Martinez batting avg .205 on base avg .236
Red Sox batters vs. Suppan batting avg .294 on base avg .343

Glaken · Oct 25, 2004

ESPN.com: MLB Playoffs 2004

Monday, October 25, 2004
Odds favor the Red Sox

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Rob Neyer
ESPN Insider

Here's the bad news for Cardinals fans: Teams that lose the first two games of the World Series generally don't fare too well in the rest of the games. Prior to this season, there were 95 World Series played in the best-of-seven format. In 50 of them, the opponents split the first two games. That leaves 45 World Series in which one team beat the other team twice (and I'm simply ignoring ties, which happened to a few teams back in the Dead Ball Era).
So you've got 45 teams that won the first two games of a World Series. Anybody want to guess how many of them wound up winning the World Series?

Thirty-five of them. Which is roughly 78 percent.

Looking at just the teams that won the first two games at home (as the Red Sox did), it's 24 wins in 31 World Series. Which is roughly 78 percent.

OK, it's actually 77 percent, but I'm trying to make a point: Slightly more than three-fourths of the teams that win the first two games of the World Series eventually win the World Series, and it really doesn't matter if it's the home team or the visiting team that's doing the early winning.

Here's the good news for Cardinals fans: Things have changed in the last half-century (roughly speaking). Oddly enough, the first 19 teams that started a World Series by winning the first two games won the Series. Nineteen and oh, 1903 through 1954.

And then, in 1955, everything changed.

Well, not everything. Something. This thing.

In 1955, the Yankees and Dodgers hooked up for the fifth time in nine years, and the Yankees took the first two games at the Stadium. But the Series shifted to Ebbets Field for Games 3 through 5, where -- and here's your Ray of Hope, St. Louisans -- the Dodgers won all three games, and a couple of days later they won Game 7, thanks to Johnny Podres and Sandy Amoros.

And here's the really weird thing: It happened again in 1956, and then again in 1958. From 1955 through 2003, 26 teams won the first two games of the Series, and only 16 of them wound up winning the Series. Most recently, in 1996, the Braves won Games 1 and 2 in the Bronx, then lost four straight to inaugurate the Yankees' dynasty (though I do remember the Yankees having something to do with that, too).

Granted, all this is good news only if you're a Cardinals fan and you think that World Series dynamics underwent some sort of magical transformation roughly a half-century ago. And maybe they have.

I doubt it, though. I think the first 19 were a little fluky, and then the next 26 were a little fluky, too. That 77 (or 78) percent looks just about right to me for two reasons: 1) winning four out of five games is tough, and 2) when a team wins the first two games, sometimes it's probably because it's actually the better team.

Do I think the Red Sox are better than the Cardinals? Yeah, I do. I've been saying that all season, and I'm certainly not going to change my mind now. Yes, the Cardinals won more games than the Red Sox this season. But you know, the Cardinals and Red Sox finished with roughly the same run differential, and I would argue that the Red Sox played in the tougher league. Oh, and the Cardinals are missing their best pitcher.

Coming into the Series, the Red Sox looked like the better team, if Curt Schilling could pitch effectively. He wasn't great in Game 2, mainly because he generally wasn't throwing as hard as he did in his last outing, against the Yankees. But Schilling was good enough, and he benefited greatly from three line drives hit right to Bill Mueller in key spots. It's often said that the great pitchers are the ones who can win without their best stuff. Well, yeah. That's because when great pitchers don't have their best stuff, they still have good stuff, and good is often good enough. Especially when it's leavened with a few dollops of good luck.

That's not hard to understand. What's hard to understand is how the Red Sox could make eight errors in the first two games -- and still win both of them. What's also hard to understand is why on earth Manny Ramirez is permitted to remain in left field when the Red Sox are trying to protect a late-innings lead. I know Red Sox management employs its own sophisticated method for evaluating defense, but I'd have a hard time trusting any method suggesting that Ramirez is anything better than brutal. Dave Roberts, where are you?

Senior writer Rob Neyer writes four columns per week during the baseball season.

RobFunk · Oct 25, 2004

suppan is awful the sox will get more than enough runs to win, and the sox have been getting into that cards pen pretty good so you can smell the trouble for st. louis.

as far as pedro goes, mr. smith is right on. he doesnt have to face a-rod,shef,matsui,jeter,posada,williams etc pedro showed me enough lately that in a non yankee game he is still the best thing going. he is the second coming of koufax for christ sakes this will cement his legacy so you can argue that he is the greatest ever for the next few decades

Fishhead · Oct 25, 2004

MANNY 7-19 with 3 homers lifetime vs Suppan.

RobFunk · Oct 25, 2004

im still praying manny finds a way to be MVP he needs a couple long balls though maybe this will be it. im assuming too much but i dont think anybody on that team would have a problem seeing manny recieve that award

Fishhead · Oct 25, 2004

RobFunk said:
im still praying manny finds a way to be MVP he needs a couple long balls though maybe this will be it. im assuming too much but i dont think anybody on that team would have a problem seeing manny recieve that award

When is the last time Manny had an extra-base hit?

D2bets · Oct 25, 2004

Fishhead said:
The more i think about this, the more depressed I am getting.

The RED SOX are a huge underdog to win this game.

What do you mean by "huge underdog"?

This is a 50/50 ballgame with a slight lean, IMO, to Boston winning. But I think my favorite is Boston team total O4.5. Oh yes, oh yes. When will the linesmakers learn...Boston scores 5+ like 80% of the time. And again Suppan? LOL

TheGeneral+ · Oct 25, 2004

THE SHRINK said:
General,

The "DUE" word can also be said of the Cards, but I happen to think that "D" word gets lots of gamblers in trouble...

You "D"ummy, lol...

Ken

Yes, I have taken a few forum beatings over the word. :drink: