Here we go...
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS minus $1.20 vs. BOSTON RED SOX
When handicapping Baseball, I am a big believer in looking at Starting Pitching, which surprisingly yields a dead heat...
Pedro Martinez is 17-10 YTD, Jeff Suppan is 18-10 YTD. Over their past 10 outings, Boston is 5-5 when Pedro has started, the Cards are 6-4 when Suppan has started. And get this.. Suppan's ERA is 4.04, Pedro's is 4.03.
So what are some of the reasons Fishhead and I LOVE the CARDINAL in this position?
1-Although this is officially Game 3, it might as well be a GAME 7 as far as the Cardinals are concerned. Only ONE team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the history of Baseball, and unless you are living in a vacuum, it just happened and it's VERY HARD to rebound from...
2-The Cardinals are UNDEFEATED at HOME this year in the Playoffs, so the Home Field advantage in their case is HUGE...
3-The Boston Red Sox have shown weakness on Defense thus far, but it's been overlooked by their Offense. The Bosox have committed an astounding 8 errors over the first two games, and now they must play a seldom used David Ortiz at First Base which is a BIG DROP DOWN defensively from Kevin Millar...
4-JEFF SUPPAN used to pitch for the Red Sox and in this position, players always want to prove to the other team that they made a mistake trading him. I look for Suppan to come up BIG and if you doubt he has the nerve in BIG games, look at his last start in game 7 against the Astros...
5-SPEED KILLS. Thus far, the Cards have yet to be able to demonstrate that they are the faster and quicker team, but look for them to be much more aggressive on the base paths at HOME tomorrow night...
6-PEDRO is not as good as he was last year, period. He has shown a tendency to tire after 100 pitches, which doesn't bode well for Boston. Look for the Cardinal batters to be patient and get Pedro out of the Game around the 6th inning...
7-THE CARDINALS had the BEST RECORD in all of BASEBALL and do not look like a team that will quit or get swept. If they lose this game, they will get swept Imo...
I will save additional comments for Fishhead, but this it in a nutshell..
Best of Luck,
THE SHRINK