The Sharp Plays....free + paid context

[X-Files]

TSP Live Daily Briefing 8/23


Posted on August 23, 2021

Good morning!

The public has been on an absolute TEAR lately in MLB. Over the past few weeks the public has been killing it on the public concentrations. Over the weekend the public concentrations in MLB went 4-0, with the Book Needs going 1-7 (all Low Level)!! The best part is, the Book Needs only overlapped on one game (Twins on Saturday were both a Book Need and Public Concentration). So, that basically means the other games in both the Public Concentrations and Book Need were all separate games…and the public cleaned them up. Usually public runs are very hot but also very brief. So, we will see if this lasts a week or less. Just something to be aware of when wagering and assessing MLB moving forward.

There were only two Primary or Secondary Angles that hit for TSP Live this weekend. Both were Secondary Angles and they resulted in a 1-1 record. The Cubs lost on Saturday, but the Mets +1.5 cashed on Sunday. Mets actually won outright, so any moneyline bettors returned a nice price.

All the new analytics worked perfectly this weekend. Although I am sure for new subscribers, being moved right to the front of the sports information buffet might have been a lot to take in. The TSP Live analytics put a ton of information at your finger tips, information that will only be expanding later today with the launching of the Oddsmaker’s Report. The key thing I tried to get people to understand is there will be a lot more TSP Live alerts because of these new analytics, but just because a TSP Live alert goes out informing you of something within the analytics does not mean it is a suggestion that you bet every angle in every alert. What analytics and alerts do TSP Live subscribers get access? The following analytics have now gone live…

Primary & Secondary Alerts: These are the original angles reported in TSP Live. From April 2020 to June 2021, the only content in TSP Live were the Primary and Secondary Angles. Primary & Secondary Angles are triggered when multiple conditions measuring value and sharp action (like certain LJP Scores) are met on a wager. Records for Primary & Secondary Angles are posted at TheSharpPlays.com. A typical weekend will see 1-5 Primary and/or Secondary Angles.

Top Sharp Consensus Alerts: These alerts cover any Premium or Just Missed Premium Plays. Premium and Just Missed Premium Plays are only covered during the football and NCAAB seasons. Premium and Just Missed Premium Plays rose to fame in 2019 due to their strong success during the football season. Since then they have been a favored angle to follow among subscribers, an analytic has been launched for subscribers to track the action all week long. For more background visit Sharp Consensus. A typical weekend will see 0-2 Sharp Consensus Angles.

TSP Live Radar Alerts: These are new alerts that are triggered whenever a 74+ reading occurs on the TSP Live Radar gauges, but that wager does not qualify as a Primary or Secondary Angle. The TSP Live Radar measures sharp buying on specific wagers. The higher the reading, the stronger the sharp buy occurring for that specific wager. TSP Live Radar alerts are new, and while there is an expectation of long term profits, a proper sample size for assessment has not yet been achieved at this time.

Book Needs Alerts: The theory is that the house always wins, so you always want to know what wagers the book wants to win to collect a large profit. Book Needs are ALWAYS going to be on the awful teams that nobody wants to bet. So, you must have a long term approach and be prepared to ride out the streaks…grinding that profit just like the books…if you want to incorporate Book Needs into your strategy. Some weeks Book Needs will get smoked, other weeks the Book Needs will do the smoking. It can be that volatile, but thanks to the juice and the fact the house always win, these angles have been shown to grind a profit season after season. High Level Book Needs have a 5 year track record of strong performance across all sports. Low Level Book Needs are a new creation using this analytic. A small sample size has shown Low Level Book Needs to be a +EV angle at this time.

KB Consensus Alerts: The theory is if a large number of sharp bettors are lopsided to one side of a wager, that’s a wager that has value. KB Consensus alerts are new, and while there is an expectation of long term profits, a proper sample size for assessment has not been met at this time.

Sports Service Consensus Alerts: The theory is that if there is a bet that a lot of sports services and handicappers are selecting that it must be a bad bet! If something seems too good to be true, it usually is and the Sports Service Consensus Alert will locate those wagers that handicappers and sports services feel is a lock. The idea being that whatever shows up on the Sports Service Consensus is a wager you want to FADE!

Oddsmaker’s Report Alerts: These alerts will trigger when the sportsbook reports a group buy or late steam arriving on a wager. The Oddsmaker Report will cover comments and messages between the traders at one global sportsbook, but TSP Live Alerts will only trigger when a group buy or late buy hits the market and is reported on the Oddsmaker’s Report.

As for today’s action, it’s a short card in MLB, NFL, soccer and tennis, so I am not sure we will see much out there. At this point only two Early Sharp Buys. The sports markets have been very quiet with sharp action the past 2-3 weeks. The lack of sharp interest has been reflected in the recent downturn of the Early Sharp Buys. However, football is on the way, so I expect the quiet to be broken by the roar of football arriving!

TSP Live subscribers, the Oddsmaker’s Report will be going live later today and a TSP Live Alert will go out when the new analytic goes live! Quick note, the Early Sharp Buy gauges now go live at 11pm ET each night. The previous days wagers will be removed and the analytic will scan the next day’s markets. So, you will now see Early Sharp Buys for the next day as early as 11pm ET the night before!

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The Sharp Plays Index
MLB: DOWN
Soccer: DOWN
Tennis: UP
Overall: DOWN

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Material Early Sharp Buying (Live readings can be found at https://tsp.live/early-sharp-buys/)

1. Toronto +100 (MLB)
2. Getafe/Sevilla UN2 (-118) (Spain’s La Liga Soccer)

**At the 500 selection mark, the performance of Early Sharp Buys exceeded variance, thereby demonstrating a level of confidence that ESB’s would be a +EV angle. However, I would strongly advise only those with a disciplined bankroll management system use ESB’s for wagering. Due to the fact there could be as many as 35 in a given week, it could lend itself to periods of extreme volatility.**

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My Wagering Strategy


I will continue playing any Primary & Secondary Angles, any LJP 2U’s and higher, my MLB totals algorithm plays (outside 1st Inning v2.0), and any Book Needs. If I change my strategy at any time, I will change the color of the text in this section to blue so it catches your eyes. Otherwise, this is my wagering plan until further notice.


TSP Daily Briefing Wagers

PASS

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

https://tsp.live/2021/08/23/tsp-live-daily-briefing-8-23/

 

[X-Files]

"[h=2]"Personal Plays[/h]My "Personal Plays" are selections I handicap myself using all the tools available to me. When I have one I'll release it FREE on Twitter, explicitly saying it is a "Personal Play". Since 2011, my "Personal Plays" on Twitter are 192-126 for 60.4% (+59.0 units)!"

https://thesharpplays.com/

 

[X-Files]

https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays/status/1433470463297138692


https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays

 

[X-Files]

https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays/status/1434171700590034947

 

[X-Files]

"Just another horse matchup WINNER!!!!

AND High Limit Room won the race OUTRIGHT paying $12.40!!"

https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays/status/1434650944566972417

https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays

 

[X-Files]

https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays/status/1434886606037598212

https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays/status/1434889121739067398

 

[X-Files]

"...BOOOOOOOM!!!!...

What a way to end a great Saratoga meet for TSP Power Ratings and the matchups!

Not only does Abaan win the matchup, he wins the race at 2-1 and pays $6.70 for a $2 bet!!

Qualifying horse matchup values now 37-12 for +23.3 units lifetime!"

https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays/status/1434953623004499970

https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays

 

[X-Files]

UP MOVES...1000-798, 55.6%, +143.6 units:

https://thesharpplays.com/the-little-john-protocol

 

[X-Files]

LJP Score	Win	Loss	Win Pct.	Units +/-
UP MOVES	980	776	55.8%	147.8
OPEN MOVES	208	150	58.1%	49.4
DOWN MOVES (FADES)	224	284	44.1%	-84.9
5U	6	1	85.7%	4.9
4U	47	30	61.0%	15.1
4OPEN	10	5	66.7%	2.9
4D	7	6	53.8%	0.7
3U	101	57	63.9%	38.0
3OPEN	39	28	58.2%	6.9
3D	28	36	43.8%	-9.5
2U	237	182	56.6%	37.6
2OPEN	62	35	63.9%	25.7
2D	52	62	45.6%	-19.2
1U	589	506	53.8%	52.2
1OPEN	97	82	54.2%	13.9
1D	66	89	42.6%	-30.2
0D	71	91	43.8%	-26.7

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Info FYI & consideration.
Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration.
Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.


"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
"Wagering on sports can be a roller coaster ride."


"Passing is not winning, but passing is always better than losing!"
“Show me someone who has never failed, and I will show you a coward.”
"I don't advise to fade or follow anything. I report & track to let you decide."

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https://thesharpplays.com/the-little-john-protocol/