The RX'ers NFL Hilton Contest, week 7

[rolltide]

15-15 YTD

[FONT=Open_Sans][h=3]Pro Football Week #7[/h][/FONT]

PRO FOOTBALL - THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2014
1 PATRIOTS*	CBS	5:25 PM	2 JETS	+9 1/2
PRO FOOTBALL - SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2014
3 COLTS*		10:00 AM	4 BENGALS	+3
5 REDSKINS*		10:00 AM	6 TITANS	+5 1/2
7 BEARS*		10:00 AM	8 DOLPHINS	+3
9 BROWNS		10:00 AM	10 JAGUARS*	+5 1/2
11 SEAHAWKS		10:00 AM	12 RAMS*	+6 1/2
13 PACKERS*		10:00 AM	14 PANTHERS	+7
15 RAVENS*		10:00 AM	16 FALCONS	+6 1/2
17 BILLS*		10:00 AM	18 VIKINGS	+ 5 1/2
19 LIONS*		10:00 AM	20 SAINTS	+2 1/2
21 CHARGERS*		1:05 PM	22 CHIEFS	+ 4 1/2
23 COWBOYS*		1:25 PM	24 GIANTS	+6 1/2
25 CARDINALS		1:25 PM	26 RAIDERS*	+3 1/2
27 BRONCOS*	NBC	5:30 PM	28 49ERS	+6 1/2
PRO FOOTBALL - MONDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2014
29 STEELERS*	ESPN	5:30 PM	30 TEXANS	+3 1/2

[FONT=Open_Sans]*Denotes home team. All times are PST.
[/FONT]

 

[JudgeWapner]

1-4 Texans +3.5

 

[DT32]

Panthers +7

5-2

 

[rolltide]

3-3

22 chiefs +4.5

 

[Willie99]

12 Rams +6.5

4-2 YTD

 

[Betallsports]

3-3

22 chiefs +4.5

Took my pick, Love this play.... I'll be back shortly with my pick

 

[rolltide]

Took my pick, Love this play.... I'll be back shortly with my pick

does that mean i should bet Chiefs 1H?

 

[Betallsports]

does that mean i should bet Chiefs 1H?

LOL, well now that I have won 2 in a row. I believe neither had the lead in the First half. Ha

Anyway, I will go with the Bills -5.5

not a fan of that line, but Buffalo should win by 2 TD's

ytd 2-4

 

[Willie99]

12) Rams +6.5, 99
14) Panthers +7, DT
17) Bills -5.5, BAS
22) Chiefs +4.5, RT
30) Texans +3.5, JW

 

[rolltide]

ESPN throws the jinx on the current leader....http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story...t-leader-alcatraz-holdings-makes-weekly-picks

The leader of the SuperContest is an unbelievable 26-4 against the spread.
LAS VEGAS -- The football handicappers in contention of the prestigious SuperContest here at the Westgate Las Vegas keep checking the standings each week and are amazed that no matter how well they're doing, first place keeps getting farther away.Alcatraz Holdings is the leader who went 5-0 ATS in NFL Week 6, is now an incredible 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) and has opened a two-game lead over his nearest competitor, Stag Capital, who is 24-6 (80 percent) and must be wondering why that isn't good enough for the lead.There are 45 SuperContestants hitting at 70 percent or better and everyone is asking, "Who is this guy? Will he ever cool off?" The leader went 5-0 ATS in each of the first two weeks of the season and 4-1 ATS in Week 3 to share the lead with Henry Gondorff at 14-1. He went 3-2 in Week 4 (we should all be so lucky for that to be our worst week) and then bounced back with 4-1 Week 5 before posting his third perfect card this past weekend.[h=4]Insider PickCenter[/h] Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision.PickCenter

Alcatraz Holdings is the alias of Dustin Rampi, a 33-year-old real estate investor from the football crazy city of Massillon, Ohio. This is his first year entering the SuperContest, but he says he was confident he would do well even against the record field of 1,403 that put up the $1,500 fee this year."I've been talking about getting in the SuperContest for about five years," Rampi said. "I've never done a contest exactly like this, but I've been doing a college and pro contest with a group of buddies where we pick 10 games a week instead of just five pro games and I've finished at or near the top every year. It's all about picking winners so the size of the field doesn't matter. I researched the SuperContest and know you need about 60 percent to finish in the money and around 57 of the 85 possible points [67 percent] to be towards the top."Like most people in his position, Rampi wasn't about to give out all the secrets of his success, but he said part of it is taking advantage of the stale lines (the Westgate locks in the SuperContest lines on Wednesday afternoon while selections aren't due until 11 a.m. PT Saturday).Back in 2008 and 2009 when the one-named advantage player known as Fezzik won back-to-back SuperContest titles, the common criticism was: "That's no big deal; he's picking against stale lines." My response: "Maybe so, but there are a ton of people trying to do the exact same thing and he's just been doing it better than anyone else these two years."How does Rampi decide which of the stale numbers he's going to play?"I have my own power ratings and, unlike the oddsmakers who have to shade the lines depending on where they think the money will be coming in, I have a pure handicapping number to compare to the lines," he said. "I look at how the lines have moved during the week and I also look at past betting trends to see where lines might move after the deadline."In Week 6, he landed on Chicago plus-3.5, Miami plus-3.5, Carolina plus-7, Baltimore minus-3 and Oakland plus-7. The Dolphins pick was the most-selected team by SuperContestants thanks to the added hook when that line was 3 most of the week -- it closed as a consensus 1.5 at kickoff and was a winner for all those players as the Packers rallied to win 27-24. Rampi said he's fortunately been making all the right decisions so far. For his last Week 6 selection, he said he wavered between Oakland plus-7 and the New York Giants plus-3."That line moved against me with San Diego closing as 7.5-point favorites over Oakland," he said, "but I saw a lot of square money coming in on the Giants and I'd rather go against the grain when I can."That worked out well as the Giants were blown out 27-0 by the Eagles on Sunday night, but Rampi had already wrapped up his 5-0 week earlier as the Raiders lost 31-28 to the Chargers but covered with the plus-7.Before ending this conversation, we have to address the big elephant in the room. I'm sure regular readers of this column are wondering about the "Tuley Curse" mentioned three weeks ago when I tried to interview Henry Gondorff (aka Todd Fuhrman of FoxSports1) and Brady Kannon of 2011 champion Sans Souci coined the phrase. Gondorff, who was 14-1 at the time, has gone 5-10 since and has fallen out of the top 30. Several contestants have said they wouldn't consent to an interview with yours truly if they were in the lead, but Rampi had no such reservations."I don't believe in jinxes," he said. "I'm just going to keep doing what I'm doing, taking it one week at a time. It's either going to happen [winning the SuperContest] or it's not."