The NIT Championship will mark the fourth meeting of the season between Conference USA foes UAB and North Texas. In the semifinals on Tuesday the Blazers (29-9) took out Utah Valley in overtime, 88-86, losing ATS as -4.5 favorites. The Mean Green (30-7) advanced after holding off Wisconsin, 56-54, winning ATS as -1.5 favorites. The last game between these two came in the CUSA semifinals, with UAB winning that one by seven. These two will tip off once more at 9:30 p.m. EST from the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
UAB holds on to advance
The Blazers escaped the clutches of a upstart Utah Valley side who was ready to bang. A four-point first half lead faded when they scored just 33 in the second, but they shot 62.5% in the extra frame to pull of the win. UAB went 7-for-16 from three in the game, pulled down 48 rebounds and scored 40 points in the paint. The UAB bench also outscored Utah Valley’s, 25-14. The Blazers’ offense ranks tenth in the country, averaging 81.3 points per game while shooing 45.3% overall. In their four NIT games they’ve averaged 79.8 points per game and shooting 43.9% overall. On defense they have allowed 70.3 points per game and opponents have shot 41% against them. In this tournament they’ve allowed just 66 points per game and held teams to 37.1% shooting. UAB is the second-best team in the country in rebounding, pulling down 41.2 per game. When it comes to making money, the Blazers have fallen a little short, going 17-18-2 ATS for the season, though they are 3-1 ATS in the NIT.
Ty Brewer, who averages 8 points per game for the season, led the team in scoring for the second time in this tournament, putting up a season high 30 points versus Utah Valley, shooting 13-for-17 overall. The senior forward went 4-for-5 from three and also had 12 rebounds.
Staunch defense gets North Texas into title game
Their win over Wisconsin secured the first ever 30-win season for the program. An intense defensive effort got it done down the stretch as they held the Badgers scoreless over the final nine minutes of the game. The Badgers shot just 37.5% overall in the game and hit just six field goals over the final 20 minutes of play. Defense has been the Mean Green’s way all season, surrendering just 55.7 points per game throughout, the best average against in the country. Teams have shot 39.2% from the field against them and 30.1% from three. In the NIT they have given up just 55.3 points per in four games, with the opposition shooting 34.8%. The Mean Green offense put up just 64.4 points per game this season and that number has been down to 66.3 in the four NIT games. They averaged just 33.9 rebounds per game, but North Texas has out-rebounded three of their four opponents in this tournament and even pulled down 40 against Oklahoma State. North Texas has proved a worthy selection in the books, going 21-14 ATS this season and 3-1 ATS in the NIT.
Tylor Perry has led the team in scoring in each game of the NIT and has averaged 20.8 points per game in the tournament. The senior guard is shooting 44.4% in those games, with a combined 16 three pointers.
In the three games this season, the Mean Green won the two regular-season games and then UAB took them down in the semifinals of the CUSA Tournament. Wins ATS followed suit, as have the last ten games for each team, both 7-3 ATS in that span. But for the season it was the Mean Green in much better control of their spreads than the Blazers were. North Texas is 3-0 ATS in their last three games, two of them against majors, and 6-2 ATS at neutral sites this season. Their defense has a way to make other teams falter at what they are trying to do by way of making it very difficult to find a good place to shoot on the court. Familiarity will be what makes this a close game, ultimately. It’s not very often teams get a fourth crack at each other in a season. North Texas is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 game following a straight-up win.
Take the Mean Green.
Prediction: North Texas +2
In their three meetings this season the duo has a combined average of 140.3 points per game. In the Conference USA Tournament, two and half weeks ago, they combined to score 145 points. They are near polar opposites in terms of tempo, where KenPom rates UAB 31st overall and North Texas dead last at 363rd. However, both are Top 75 in their adjusted offense rank, with the Mean Green right at 75 and the Blazers coming in at 45. UAB did average 69 points per game on that staunch North Texas defense and with this being the fourth time they’ve met, the Blazers are quite familiar with what the Mean Green will throw at them. UAB scored 74 points in their last meeting, so they are more than capable of breaking through the North Texas defense with enough points. The Mean Green have twice scored 88 points this tournament and added a 77-point performance to the mix as well. They put 69 on the Blazers in their last meeting and have scored 70 or more points in seven of their last ten games. The over is 9-2 in the Blazers' last 11 games at a neutral site and 8-2 in the Mean Green’s last ten versus a team with a record over .600%, per Covers.com.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 127.5
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