The pros handicap the numbers(Math), not the game

[drunkguy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Buck Fush:
It is a fallacy to say that "team A has a 58% chance of covering". Team A either has a 100% or a 0% chance of covering. The decision on which side to bet on is an either/or (or neither) decision. If you think Team A will cover then you bet on them. If you think Team B will cover you bet on them. All "the numbers" do is confuse you.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

If you flip a coin once, does it have a 100% or 0% chance of comin up? If you roll a die once, does a 6 have a 100% or 0% chance of coming up?

If you know when a team has 100% chance of covering, please let us all know. Otherwise, we'll all have to deal with the old fallacy of estimating a team's chances of covering, usually in the 50-55% range.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Darryl Parsons:
I can appreciate that the stats support the lines but what I don't get is why do teams perform better after doing badly in the first half? Does the leading team let up? Surely the coach of the leading team knows about the phenomenon, so he could warn the players and take steps so it doesn't happen.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


In football sometimes it's called the PREVENT defense. Up 3 scores the defensive coordinator gets cute and decides to tell his guys to drop back and keep everything in front of you. It's not always what your opponent does when your team has a big lead that kills you, often your own team shoots themselves in the foot. Not only on defense either, on offense often times a team goes away from what they do well. A team killing their opponent by throwing on first down and keeping the defense off balance now tries to take time of the clock and becomes one dimensional. That usually never works well either and can help snug a game up some.

Losing teams don't always "play better" in the 2nd half, it's other factor besides the team ahead just letting up or playing their reserves which need to be considered. Depends on the sport and the coach but if you watch over a period of time you get pretty good indications of what a team is likely to do in the 2nd half.....

 

[TheGeneral+]

That is playing "not to lose" = Colts

See it to often for sure in football.

 

[SportSavant]

The way I see it recrational betting is like flipping a coin...beating the number against the spread that is...bookie of course collects juice.

If talking about a good Handicaper/Mathematician, it would be like flipping a slightly weighted coin...The coin would favor heads & would land on heads 5700 out of 10000...but it would not be 100% & on any given bet would only be slightly above 50%.

Recrational bettors lose, not because they cannot come close to 50%...more due to discipline & Money managemnent & possibly falling in to Bookie Traps...

Speaking of Traps...I think this Miami O vs Houston game tomorrow is a Trap at 13.5...IMHO the dog is a play here...Does anyone know if a spread is 13-15 what are the odds of the game landing on 14? I am considering a -13.5 -104 + 14.5 -105 middle attempt...comes in at about 40-1 on Miami winning by exactly 14...Anyone have thoughts on this?

 

[chips]

Wilheim, this statement couldnt be more wrong.

"I don't know about pros, but that scenario opens up an 11 point middle in the second half. I might bet a % of my original bet if I wanted to guarantee winning, or at worse breaking even."

The 2nd half is a new betting oportunity, completely seperate from the original game, you have a 50-50 chance of winning the 2nd H at its current #, you dont have an 11pt middle for the 2nd H, you have Ntexst PK for the 2h. Why would you want to give away the big edge you gained in the 1st H??? What happens when U try to "middle" all you winning games is you lose your value, what do you do when losing the game at half?? Seperate bet that should be treated seperate, now if you say something that may give you an edge in the 2nd H i.e. an injury then sure go bet the other side but not simply because you are winning a game, its like splitting 10's in Black Jack.

 

[mvbski]

Myself the only time I like to middle with a second half bet is if I have the total bet for the game,I have found that with the right spots that it is easier to middle, with sides there are just so many scenarios that need to fall into place for me to cash,but thats just my opinion

 

[SportSavant]

What if the Dog is up at Half time against a heavy favorite...& you have a bet on the dog...Maybe I am a sucker but I like betting the favorite for the 2nd half in that position...IE the Toronto game above...Dallas heavy fav at home but down by 8 at half....any thoughts?

 

[mvbski]

I quit betting the NBA this year I couldn't get a handle on it this year so wisely I put up the white flag.

 

[mvbski]

I should have said I like to do that in football

 

[areeff]

If you like the 2nd half line it shouldnt matter what you have on the game bet.